• Title/Summary/Keyword: 일사량 예측

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Assessing uncertainty in future climate change in Northeast Asia using multiple CMIP5 GCMs with four RCP scenarios (RCP시나리오 기반 CMIP5 GCMs을 이용한 동북아시아 미래 기후변화 불확실성 평가)

  • Shin, Yonghee;Jung, Huicheul
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.205-216
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    • 2015
  • The CMIP5 climate change scenarios from 34 GCMs were analyzed to quantitatively assess future changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation against the global region and the Northeast Asia region with a focus on South Korea, North Korea, or Japan. The resulting projection revealed that the Northeast Asia region is subjected to more increase in temperature and precipitation than the global means for both. In particular, temperature and precipitation in North Korea were projected to increase about $5.1^{\circ}C$ and 18%, respectively under the RCP 8.5 scenario, as compared to the historical means for 30 years (1971-2000), although a large uncertainty still exists among GCMs. For solar radiation, global mean solar radiation was predicted to decrease with time in all RCP scenarios except for the RCP 2.6 scenario. On the contrary, it was predicted that the amount of solar radiation in the Northeast Asia increases in the future period.

Comparative Analysis of Solar Power Generation Prediction AI Model DNN-RNN (태양광 발전량 예측 인공지능 DNN-RNN 모델 비교분석)

  • Hong, Jeong-Jo;Oh, Yong-Sun
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.55-61
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    • 2022
  • In order to reduce greenhouse gases, the main culprit of global warming, the United Nations signed the Climate Change Convention in 1992. Korea is also pursuing a policy to expand the supply of renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The expansion of renewable energy development using solar power led to the expansion of wind power and solar power generation. The expansion of renewable energy development, which is greatly affected by weather conditions, is creating difficulties in managing the supply and demand of the power system. To solve this problem, the power brokerage market was introduced. Therefore, in order to participate in the power brokerage market, it is necessary to predict the amount of power generation. In this paper, the prediction system was used to analyze the Yonchuk solar power plant. As a result of applying solar insolation from on-site (Model 1) and the Korea Meteorological Administration (Model 2), it was confirmed that accuracy of Model 2 was 3% higher. As a result of comparative analysis of the DNN and RNN models, it was confirmed that the prediction accuracy of the DNN model improved by 1.72%.

Electrical Characteristics of PV Cells by Ambient Temperature, Wind Speed and Irradiance Level (주변온도, 풍속, 일사량에 의한 PV Cell의 전기적 특성 분석)

  • Park, Hyeonah;Kim, Hyosung
    • Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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    • 2015.07a
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    • pp.277-278
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    • 2015
  • 태양광발전소를 설치하기 위한 경제적 타당성을 분석하는 경우 기상청에서 제공하는 해당지역의 날씨정보를 기반으로 하는 PV Cell의 연간 발전량 예측 및 분석이 중요한 변수가 된다. 또한 날씨 조건에 대한 PV 발전의 예측은 기 설치되어 운전중에 있는 태양광발전소의 고장진단 및 성능평가에도 사용될 수 있다. 본 논문은 다양한 날씨 조건 중 주변온도, 풍속, 일사량에 따른 PV Cell의 특성을 분석하고, 실시간으로 변화하는 날씨환경에 대하여 순시적으로 PV Cell의 출력특성을 정확히 예측할 수 있는 모델을 수립한다.

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Comparative Analysis of Measurements and Total Solar Irradiance Models on Inclined Surface for Building Solar Energy Prediction (건물의 일사에너지 예측을 위한 경사면 일사량 측정과 예측모델과의 비교분석 연구)

  • Yoon, Kap-chun;Jeon, Jong-Ug;Kim, Kang-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.44-52
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    • 2012
  • In all building's energy simulation applications, solar radiation must be calculated on inclined surfaces. Various solar radiation models based on measured data of specific region were used in building simulation programs. Therefore, we should choose the appropriate solar radiation model for Seoul. The purpose of this study is to compare four solar radiation models on inclined surfaces that are widely used in building energy simulations. In this case, it can be said the appropriate model in Seoul is the Isotropic model.

Forecasting of Short Term Photovoltaic Generation by Various Input Model in Supervised Learning (지도학습에서 다양한 입력 모델에 의한 초단기 태양광 발전 예측)

  • Jang, Jin-Hyuk;Shin, Dong-Ha;Kim, Chang-Bok
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.478-484
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    • 2018
  • This study predicts solar radiation, solar radiation, and solar power generation using hourly weather data such as temperature, precipitation, wind direction, wind speed, humidity, cloudiness, sunshine and solar radiation. I/O pattern in supervised learning is the most important factor in prediction, but it must be determined by repeated experiments because humans have to decide. This study proposed four input and output patterns for solar and sunrise prediction. In addition, we predicted solar power generation using the predicted solar and solar radiation data and power generation data of Youngam solar power plant in Jeollanamdo. As a experiment result, the model 4 showed the best prediction results in the sunshine and solar radiation prediction, and the RMSE of sunshine was 1.5 times and the sunshine RMSE was 3 times less than that of model 1. As a experiment result of solar power generation prediction, the best prediction result was obtained for model 4 as well as sunshine and solar radiation, and the RMSE was reduced by 2.7 times less than that of model 1.

Development of Photovoltaic Output Power Prediction System using OR-AND Structured Fuzzy Neural Networks (OR-AND 구조의 퍼지 뉴럴 네트워크를 이용한 태양광 발전 출력 예측 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Haemaro;Han, Chang-Wook;Lee, Don-Kyu
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.334-337
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    • 2019
  • In response to the increasing demand for energy, research and development of next-generation energy is actively carried out around the world to replace fossil fuels. Among them, the specific gravity of solar power generation systems using infinity and pollution-free solar energy is increasing. However, solar power generation is so different from solar energy that it is difficult to provide stable power and the power production itself depends on the solar energy by region. To solve these problems in this paper, we have collected meteorological data such as actual regional solar irradiance, precipitation, temperature and humidity, and proposed a solar power output prediction system using logic-based fuzzy Neural Network.

A Study on the Unit Type BIPV Design Method for Super-Tall Building Concentrating on the Solar Irradiance Incident on the Building Facades (수직면 일사량을 고려한 초고층 건축물 적용 Unit형 BIPV 설계 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Liu, Chun-De;Seo, Young-Seok;Oh, Min-Seok;Kim, Hway-Suh
    • 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.370-375
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    • 2011
  • BIPV시스템 분야는 다른 PV 적용 기술 분야에 비해 빠르게 성장하고 있으나 소형 건축물 위주로 적용되었으며, 초고층 건축물과 같이 수직적으로 높은 건축물의 외부환경조건에 대응하기 위한 BIPV의 적용 방안은 현재까지 연구되어지지 않았다. 국내의 경우 선진국에 비해 초고층 건축물에 대한 BIPV시스템 적용기술은 아직 초기 연구단계에 불과하다. 초고층 건축물의 고유의 특징을 고려하여 초고층 건축물 파사드에 입사하는 일사량의 분포가 균일하지 않을 것이라고 예측하고 실측을 진행하였으며, 실측 결과의 분석을 통하여 초고층 건축물에서의 BIPV시스템 최적 설계방안을 제시하였다. 결론적으로 본 연구에서는 초고층 건축물의 외벽에 입사하는 일사량을 고려한 Unit형 BIPV설계 방안을 제시하였으며, 특히, 측정된 일사량 데이터를 활용하여 초고층 건축물에 적합한 인버터의 선정의 대안을 제시하였다.

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Prediction and Analysis of Photovoltaic Modules's Output using MATLAB (MATLAB을 이용한 태양광 모듈의 출력 예측 및 해석)

  • Heo, Yun-Seok;Kim, Jae-Gyu;Kim, Ji-Man;Kwon, Bo-Min;Song, Han-Jung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.2963-2967
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we have predicted and analyzed the MSX 60 photovoltaic module's output according to the temperature and solar radiation conditions by MATLAB program. 2 and 3-dimensional I-V curves of the PV module considered temperature, series resistance and solar radiation variation. are shown. Also, calculated PV's electrical parameters are Isc = 3.8 A, Voc = 21 V, Pmax = 60 W. Compared with the actual photovoltaic module's data, these simulated results agreed well with within the manufacturer's maximum error range 3%.

Solar Irradiance Estimation in Korea by Using Modified Heliosat-II Method and COMS-MI Imagery (수정된 Heliosat-II 방법과 COMS-MI 위성 영상을 이용한 한반도 일사량 추정)

  • Won Seok, Choi;Ah Ram, Song;Il, Kim Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.463-472
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    • 2015
  • Solar radiation data are important data that can be used as basic research data in diverse areas. In particular, solar radiation data are essential for diverse studies that have been recently conducted in South Korea including those for new and renewable energy resource map making and crop yield forecasting. So purpose of this study is modification of Heliosat-II method to estimate solar irradiance in Korea by using COMS-MI imagery. For this purpose, in this study, errors appearing in ground albedo images were corrected through linear transformation. And method of producing background albedo map which is used in Heliosat-II method is modified to get more finely tuned one. Through the study, ground albedo correction could be successfully performed and background albedo maps could be successfully derived. Lastly, In this study, solar irradiance was estimated by using modified Heliostat-II method. And it was compared with actually measured values to verify the accuracy of the methods. Accuracy of estimated solar irradiance was 30.8% RMSE(%). And this accuracy level means that solar irradiance was estimated on 10% higher level than previous Heliosat-II method.

The Prediction of Temperature in Composite Box Girder Bridges (합성 박스형 교량의 온도 예측)

  • Chang, Sung Pil;Im, Chang Kyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.9 no.3 s.32
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    • pp.431-440
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    • 1997
  • The paper describes a theoretical model for the prediction of bridge temperatures from meteorological data measured at bridge site and local meteorological center together with existing finite element heat transfer theory and solar radiation transfer theory to determine the time dependent temperature distribution of bridge. In this analytical model, the most adequate equation for the calculation of solar radiation on the bridge surface, which is dominant in day time is described based on the results of several experimental studies for the solar energy. The validity of this model is tested against field data obtained from long term experimental program on Sadang Viaduct in Seoul. Also, this paper describes the linear correlation between design variables and meteorological data to establish analytical criteria for the prediction of the average temperature, which are responsible for the longitudinal deformation of the bridges and of the vertical differential temperature profiles. which are responsible for the bending deformations from the long term experimental results.

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