• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.77-100
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• 2022

In the era of low growth, many provincial cities are experiencing population decline and aging. Population decline phenomena such as reduction of productive manpower, reduction of finances, deterioration of quality of life, and collapse of the community base are occurring in a chain and are being pushed to the brink of extinction of the cities. This study aims to propose a methodology to objectively estimate the employment creation centers and setting the basic unit of industrial-centered zoning by applying spatial statistical techniques and GIS for the application of the compact city plan as an efficient spatial management policy in a city with a declining population. In details, based on reviewing previous studies on compact city, 'employment complex index(ECI)' were defined considering the number of workers, the number of settlers, and the area of development land, the employment creation center was estimated by applying the 'Local Moran's I' and 'Getis-Ord's Hot-Spot Analysis'. As a case study, changes in the four years of 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2019 were compared and analyzed for Changwon City. As a result, it was confirmed that the employment creation center is becoming compacted and polycentric, which is a significant result that reflects the actual situation well. This results provide the basic data for functional and institutional territorial governance for the regional revitalization platform, and provide meaningful information necessary for spatial policy decision-making, such as population reduction, regional gross domestic product, and public facility arrangement that can respond to energy savings, transportation plans, and medical and health plans.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.3-46
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• 1997

본 논문은 우리나라 저축률(貯蓄率)의 결정요인을 실증적으로 분석하는 데 목적을 두고 있다. 특히 본 논문은 생애주기가설/항상소득가설(生涯週期假說/恒常所得假說)에 바탕을 두고 거시(巨視)시계열자료와 미시(微視)횡단면자료를 모두 분석함으로써 개별경제주체의 저축행위와 경제전체의 저축간의 일관된 관계를 밝히려고 하였다. 표준적인 생애주기가설/항상소득가설에 의하면, 저축은 소득(所得)의 일시적 변동으로부터 소비(消費)를 독립시키려는 개별소비자의 합리적 선택의 결과이다. 따라서 개별소비자의 저축은 단기적으로는 소득이 일시적으로 높은 해(년(年))에, 그리고 보다 장기적으로는 일생동안 가장 높은 수준의 소득을 벌게 되는 장년기간중에 가장 크게 된다. 본 논문의 실증결과는 이러한 생애주기가설/항상소득가설의 예측이 실제자료와 대체로 일치함을 보여준다. 거시자료 분석결과에 의하면 우리나라 저축률의 연간변동은 소득성장률(所得成長率)과 인구연령구조(人口年齡構造)의 변동에 의해서 잘 설명되는 것으로 나타난다. 또한 미시자료 분석결과를 보더라도 소득이 일시적으로 높은 가계나 경제활동연령인구의 비중이 높은 가계일수록 더 많은 저축을 하는 것으로 나타난다. 따라서 생애주기가설/항상소득가설은 우리나라 저축률의 결정을 설명하는 데 매우 유용하다고 판단된다. 본 논문은 또한 소득성장률이나 연령구조 외에 이자율, 유동성 제약, 그리고 예비적 저축동기 등이 저축에 미치는 영향에 대해서도 살펴보았다. 실증결과에 의하면 실질이자율은 저축률을 다소 증대시키는 효과가 있으나, 기타 요인들의 효과는 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.599-614
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• 2016

Urban centers have been recognized as problem regions so far. However, urban centers of metropolises take a new aspect in recent years as much as the negative influence of gentrification becomes a social issue. This paper analyzes the declining trend of urban centers in six metropolises - Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju and Daejun from 1995 to 2010. As results of analysis, it is identified that the urban centers' shrinkage got moderated recently in the metropolises, even though their resurgence is not evident. Especially it is difficult to say longer that Jongro-Gu and Jung-Gu of Seoul are declining urban centers. Easing shrinkage is most outstanding in Jung-Gu, Daegu among local metropolises. Nevertheless, a serious obstacle such as high price of housing is in the process of obvious resurgence of urban center differently from the United States, Europe and Japan.

• 한국사회정책
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.3-38
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• 2018

This study aims to analyse the redistributive impact of the welfare state growth in Korea after 2000s and establish whether there are people excluded from the benefits of the growth. The growth of the Korean welfare state has been achieved by universalizing welfare benefits under the social insurance-centered institutions which are the legacies of the productivist/developmental welfare regime. When it comes to redistribution impacts, the welfare state growth improved inequality among old age populations to a certain degree due to the introduction of the Basic Pension. On the other hand, welfare benefits for the working poor population has hardly been improved in spite of the growing welfare state. It can be said, therefore, that low-income working-age populations have been excluded from the growth of Korean welfare state. These groups are mostly in middle-old age, unemployed or precariously employed and half of them were female householders. The exclusion of these groups from the Korean welfare state shows that the growth of the Korean welfare state was unbalanced. To include the excluded into the Korean welfare state, it is necessary to increase non-insurance social provisions, extend the range of application of the social insurances, integrate income protection, employment service, and vocational training for the working poor, and combine universal and targeted welfare benefits.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.286-299
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• 2016

The increase of elderly population is inevitable a universal trend in developed countries. The Korea also followed this tendency. Especially the elderly population in Korea has been rapidly increasing since the 1990s. The rural population is aging more rapidly than the urban one because younger generations move into the urban area, due to better jobs and children education's opportunities. However, the majority of studies on population ageing are focused on the urban area rather than the rural ones. Rural areas also have been excluded as a priority of the national welfare policy for the elderly people. This paper tries to analyze the population ageing among regions and to identify the regional disparity between the elderly people and the level of public services in the rural area. Based upon these results, this study notes some policy alternatives for the improvement of quality of life of the rural elderly. It also suggests on the suitable location of public service facilities in the rural areas.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.436-446
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• 2015

It is suggested investigating method about the existing state of demand in this study. The total demand of 357 water amenity zones in 2014 is estimated based on the growth curve models. The effects of population density and distances between water amenity zones and metropolises populated over 1 million are investigated on each river system. The suitability like RMSE and MAPE of logistic and gompertz models are considered to select more suitable model for each water amenity zone. Demand for water amenity zones in 2014 is seemed to be rather high at Han Gang river system and Chungcheongbukdo after analyzing. The influence of population density is rarely effective except Geum Gang river system. The influence of metropolis on the demand for water amenity zones is higher at Geum Gang river system than others.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.46-59
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• 2007

Urban infrastructure is a core of urban growth management which concerns with location, time and costs of development. Despite an inevitable link between development density and infrastructure capacity in urban areas, little study have been performed. For this reason, development activities are undergone without any clear evidence or analysis. The main purposes of this paper are to build subject maps of urban infrastructure capacity which illustrate the level of education service and road capacity, and to give reference standard for development decision at given location. For these purposes, the case study of the high-rise multi-purpose buildings in Daegu metropolitan city is performed. The main findings are follows. First, road ratio is high in the CBD and its surrounding areas as well as rural area, and low in areas of manufacturing, parks and military use. Second, educational facility, represented by the number of student per classroom of elementary school, is fairly abundant across the city, especially in the CBD and rural areas. Third, the high-rise multi-purpose buildings have been built in population-losing infrastructure-abundant areas, in general. Based on these results, this study concludes that the high-rise multi-purpose buildings may induce population-inflow and have low possibility to bring about overly dense developments.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.480-500
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• 2011

This paper aims to describe the rapid growth of the one-person households in terms of the socio-economic demographic perspectives during the period of 1995-2005 and to analyze the spatial distribution patterns based on different characteristics of one-person households. The increase in the divorce ratio in the middle-aged, the growth of unmarried people the young generation, and the increase of life expectancy in the old generation are explanatory factors for the rise and diversification of one-person households in Korea. The rapid increase of one-person households is accompanied by a diversification in their age, gender, marital status, education level. Uneven distribution of one-person households depends on their age, level of education and dwelling type. Highly educated young adults residing in their own apartment are generally concentrated in major cities, whereas senior citizen with their own single house who lives alone are mostly in rural area. One-person households of the highly educated young adults are significantly polarized in the light of their the living standards. In particular, metropolitan area or big cities are mixed with those who have their own apartment and are financially capacity and with those who rent in a detached single house. As such, one-person households have considerably heterogeneous characteristics. Therefore, each local government will face different economic and social problems based on which group of one-person households are increasing and where they are concentrated in. To this extent, the local government should have differentiated welfare policy according to its own respect.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.339-348
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to predict the economic size of foods-for-elderly market, which will be valuable information for establishing related policy and backup system. After setting the scope of related industry, detailed information for current market situation was investigated and a systematic forecast for market changes in the future was performed. Economic growth, changes in consumer expenditure and economic status of the elderly, current subscription of medical insurance and saving for pension were reflected. In addition, a survey toward related firms was completed and changes in aged population and incidence of chronic disease in the elderly were taken into account. Results show that the annual growth rate of the market was predicted to be the minimum 4.54% through the maximum 8.32% from 2010 to 2025 and its market size was forecasted to be the minimum 7,073 ten million won through the maximum 10,976 ten million won. It is expected that the market of foods-for-elderly will grow rapidly with development of foods technology and fast increase of aged population. Especially, growth of health functional foods and foods for special dietary uses for elderly will be distinguished. However, it seems that related firms are on the hedge, watching current trend of the related industry. This may results in insufficient supply against the demand. Therefore, policy for foods-for-elderly should be introduced and systematically administered, including R&D support, standardization and authentication for foods-for-elderly, construction of related database system.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.149-176
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• 2007

본 연구는 지난 30년간(1975-2004년) 한국의 경제성장과정에서 교육의 부문별(초등 중등 고등교육) 역할을 추정하는 데 주목적이 있다. 본 연구는 우선 신고전학파 Solow의 외생적 경제성장이론을 접목한 Cobb-Douglas 모형을 확장하여 1인당 경제성장 추정을 위한 내생성장모형을 제시하였다. 또한 자료 한계를 극복하기 위하여 동아시아 7개국 자료를 바탕으로 시계 및 횡단면 자료를 블록으로 구축하여 앞의 내생성장모형을 이용한 pooling방법으로 1인당 경제성장에 물적자본, 단순노동력, 인적자본, 지적자본(R&D), 초기년도의 기술수준 등의 기여분을 추정하였다. 이러한 각 생산요소의 직접적인 추정결과로부터 각 요소간(고등교육, 중등교육, 지적자본) 상호작용으로 인한 간접적인 기여분 추정을 위해 연립방정식체계를 구축하고 각 요소의 영향력을 재 추정하여 보정된 결과를 제시하였다. 1975-2004년간 한국의 경제성장 과정에 있어서 인적자본요소인 교육은 40.7%를 기여였으며 이를 다시 분해하면 중등교육이 가장 큰 87.0%, 초등교육이 6.6%, 중등교육에 간접적으로 기여한 대학교육이 -52.9%를 보였다. 물적자본이 39.6%, R&D자본이 24.1%들 보였으며 지식 정보기반사회에서 그 의미가 감소한 단순노동력은 -1.4%, 기술추격을 가능케 하는 1975년도 초기기술수준이 -3.0%의 추정결과를 보여주고 있다. 향후 정책연구 과제로는 한국미 지식기반사회에서 선진국으로 진입하기 위해서는 경제성장과정에서 대학의 역할을 제고할 필요성이 있음을 제안하고 있다. 이를 위해서는 기존 대학의 양적인 구조조정이 필요하다. 특히 대학의 질적 경쟁력을 높이기 위한 정부의 대학 지원 역할 역시 제고되어야 할 것이다. 또한 이 글은 교육시장과 노동시장을 어떠한 방법으로 연계 시키는가를 논의하고 세계시장의 급격한 기술변화와 체제변화에 따라 국내노동시장의 필요한 산업인력수요의 내용도 같은 속도의 변화를 요구하고 있음을 상기시키고 연계지원 정책을 주장하고 있다.