• Title/Summary/Keyword: 이항분포

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Dynamics of Welfare Attitudes Change in Korea: Longitudinal Study of Korean's Welfare Attitudes Change (한국사회 복지태도 변화의 역동성 : 개인 복지태도 변화에 대한 종단자료 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Rok;Lee, Soon-A;Kim, Hyeong-Kwan
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.59-89
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    • 2017
  • Changes in the public welfare attitudes are very important to the welfare politics and policy. Considering that variability of public welfare attitudes has been ignored in previous studies, we analyzed welfare attitudes changes at individual level in Korea. Using the longitudinal data from the Additional Survey of 2010/2013/2016 Korea Welfare Panel Survey, we analyzed the changes in public welfare attitudes during 2010th-2016th years. Major findings are as follows. First, one of the findings from analysis is that the public welfare attitudes are very active and dynamic in Korea. This finding is contradiction to the results of the previous researches that are point to the stability or inertia of the public welfare attitudes in western welfare states and also in Korea. Second, occurrences of the welfare attitudes change are related with various individual characteristics; income status, occupation status, age, region, sex, political ideology, etc. These results from this study on the welfare attitudes change suggest that dynamics of the Korea welfare politics in recent years reflected the dynamic changes in public welfare attitudes. And, they suggest that Korea welfare politics are transformed from the traditional classes welfare politics to the new welfare politics which are influenced by various interests of the socio-demographic groups.

Development and Exploration of Safety Performance Functions Using Multiple Modeling Techniques : Trumpet Ramps (다양한 통계 기법을 활용한 안전성능함수 개발 및 비교 연구 : 트럼펫형 램프를 중심으로)

  • Yang, Samgyu;Park, Juneyoung;Kwon, Kyeongjoo;Lee, Hyunsuk
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2021
  • In recent times, several studies have been conducted focusing on crashes occurring on the main segment of the highway. However, there is a dearth of research dealing with traffic safety relating to other highway facilities, especially ramp areas. According to the Korea Expressway Corporation's Expressway Information Service, 6,717 crashes have occurred on ramps in the five years from 2015~2019, which accounts for about 15% of all highway accidents. In this study, the simple and full safety performance functions (SPFs) were evaluated and explored using different statistical distributions (i.e., Poisson Gamma (PG) and Poisson Inverse Gaussian (PIG)) and techniques (i.e., fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE)) to provide more accurate crash prediction models for highway ramp sections. Data on the geometric characteristics of traffic and roadways were collected from various systems and with extensive efforts using a street-view application. The results showed that the PIG models present more accurate crash predictions in general. The results also indicated that the RE models performed better than FE models for simple and full SPFs. The findings from this study offer transportation practitioners using the Korea Expressway Corporation's Expressway a dependable reference to enhance and understand traffic safety in ramp areas based on accurate crash prediction models and empirical evidence.

Comparative Study on the Estimation Methods of Traffic Crashes: Empirical Bayes Estimate vs. Observed Crash (교통사고 추정방법 비교 연구: 경험적 베이즈 추정치 vs. 관측교통사고건수)

  • Shin, Kangwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.453-459
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    • 2010
  • In the study of traffic safety, it is utmost important to obtain more reliable estimates of the expected crashes for a site (or a segment). The observed crashes have been mainly used as the estimate of the expected crashes in Korea, while the empirical Bayes (EB) estimates based on the Poisson-gamma mixture model have been used in the USA and several European countries. Although numerous studies have used the EB method for estimating the expected crashes and/or the effectiveness of the safety countermeasures, no past studies examine the difference in the estimation errors between the two estimates. Thus, this study compares the estimation errors of the two estimates using a Monte Carlo simulation study. By analyzing the crash dataset at 3,000,000 simulated sites, this study reveals that the estimation errors of the EB estimates are always less than those of the observed crashes. Hence, it is imperative to incorporate the EB method into the traffic safety research guideline in Korea. However, the results show that the differences in the estimation errors between the two estimates decrease as the uncertainty of the prior distribution increases. Consequently, it is recommended that the EB method be used with reliable hyper-parameter estimates after conducting a comprehensive examination on the estimated negative binomial model.

Evaluation of Hydrogeological Characteristics of Deep-Depth Rock Aquifer in Volcanic Rock Area (화산암 지역 고심도 암반대수층 수리지질특성 평가)

  • Hangbok Lee;Chan Park;Junhyung Choi;Dae-Sung Cheon;Eui-Seob Park
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.231-247
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    • 2024
  • In the field of high-level radioactive waste disposal targeting deep rock environments, hydraulic characteristic information serves as the most important key factor in selecting relevant disposal sites, detailed design of disposal facilities, derivation of optimal construction plans, and safety evaluation during operation. Since various rock types are mixed and distributed in a small area in Korea, it is important to conduct preliminary work to analyze the hydrogeological characteristics of rock aquifers for various rock types and compile the resulting data into a database. In this paper, we obtained hydraulic conductivity data, which is the most representative field hydraulic characteristic of a high-depth volcanic bedrock aquifer, and also analyzed and evaluated the field data. To acquire field data, we used a high-performance hydraulic testing system developed in-house and applied standardized test methods and investigation procedures. In the process of hydraulic characteristic data analysis, hydraulic conductivity values were obtained for each depth, and the pattern of groundwater flow through permeable rock joints located in the test section was also evaluated. It is expected that the series of data acquisition methods, procedures, and analysis results proposed in this report can be used to build a database of hydraulic characteristics data for high-depth rock aquifers in Korea. In addition, it is expected that it will play a role in improving technical know-how to be applied to research on hydraulic characteristic according to various bedrock types in the future.

A Study on Hydraulic Characteristics of Permeable Rock Fractures in Deep Rock Aquifer Using Geothermal Gradient and Pumping Test Data (지온경사와 양수시험 자료를 활용한 심부 암반대수층 투수성 암반균열의 수리특성 연구)

  • Hangbok Lee;Cholwoo Lee;Eui-Seob Park
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.312-329
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    • 2024
  • In various underground research projects such as energy storage and development and radioactive waste disposal targeting deep underground, the characteristics of permeable rock fractures that serve as major pathway of groundwater flow in deep rock aquifer are considered as an important evaluation factor in the design, construction, and operation of research facilities. In Korea, there is little research and database on the location and hydraulic characteristics of permeable rock fractures and the pattern of groundwater flow patterns that may occur between fractures in deep rock boreholes. In this paper, the hydraulic characteristics of permeable rock fractures in deep rock aquifer were evaluated through the analysis of geothermal gradient and pumping test data. First, the deep geothermal distribution was identified through temperature logging, and the geothermal gradient was obtained through linear regression analysis using temperature data by depth. In addition, the hydraulic characteristics of the fractured rock were analyzed using outflow temperature obtained from pumping tests. Ultimately, the potential location and hydraulic characteristics of permeable rock fractures, as well as groundwater flow within the boreholes, were evaluated by integrating and analyzing the geophysical logging and hydraulic testing data. The process and results of the evaluation of deep permeable rock fractures proposed in this study are expected to serve as foundational data for the successful implementation of underground research projects targeting deep rock aquifers.

Sampling Plan for Bemisia tabaci Adults by Using Yellow-color Sticky Traps in Tomato Greenhouses (시설토마토에서 황색트랩을 이용한 담배가루이 표본조사법)

  • Song, Jeong Heub;Lee, Kwang Ju;Yang, Young Taek;Lee, Shin Chan
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.375-380
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    • 2014
  • The sweetpotato whitefly (SPW), Bemisia tabaci Gennadius, is a major pest in tomato greenhouses on Jeju Island because they transmit viral diseases. To develop practical sampling methods for adult SPWs, yellow-color sticky traps were used in commercial tomato greenhouses throughout the western part of Jeju Island in 2011 and 2012. On the basis of the size and growing conditions in the tomato greenhouses, 20 to 30 traps were installed in each greenhouse for developing a sampling plan. Adult SPWs were more attracted to horizontal traps placed 60 cm above the ground than to vertical trap placed 10 cm above the plant canopy. The spatial patterns of the adult SPWs were evaluated using Taylor's power law (TPL) and Iwao's patchiness regression (IPR). The results showed that adult SPWs were aggregated in each surveyed greenhouse. In this study, TPL showed better performance because of the coefficient of determination ($r^2$). On the basis of the fixed-precision level sampling plan using TPL parameters, more traps were required for higher precision in lower SPW densities per trap. A sequential sampling stop line was constructed using TPL parameters. If the treatment threshold was greater than 10 maximum adult SPWs on a trap, the required traps numbered 15 at a fixed-precision level of 0.25. In estimating the mean density per trap, the proportion of traps with two or more adult SPWs was more efficient than whole counting: ${\ln}(m)=1.19+0.90{\ln}(-{\ln}(1-p_T))$. The results of this study could be used to prevent the dissemination of SPW as a viral disease vector by using accurate control decision in SPW management programs.

A Case Study: Improvement of Wind Risk Prediction by Reclassifying the Detection Results (풍해 예측 결과 재분류를 통한 위험 감지확률의 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Soo-ock;Hwang, Kyu-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.149-155
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    • 2021
  • Early warning systems for weather risk management in the agricultural sector have been developed to predict potential wind damage to crops. These systems take into account the daily maximum wind speed to determine the critical wind speed that causes fruit drops and provide the weather risk information to farmers. In an effort to increase the accuracy of wind risk predictions, an artificial neural network for binary classification was implemented. In the present study, the daily wind speed and other weather data, which were measured at weather stations at sites of interest in Jeollabuk-do and Jeollanam-do as well as Gyeongsangbuk- do and part of Gyeongsangnam- do provinces in 2019, were used for training the neural network. These weather stations include 210 synoptic and automated weather stations operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The wind speed data collected at the same locations between January 1 and December 12, 2020 were used to validate the neural network model. The data collected from December 13, 2020 to February 18, 2021 were used to evaluate the wind risk prediction performance before and after the use of the artificial neural network. The critical wind speed of damage risk was determined to be 11 m/s, which is the wind speed reported to cause fruit drops and damages. Furthermore, the maximum wind speeds were expressed using Weibull distribution probability density function for warning of wind damage. It was found that the accuracy of wind damage risk prediction was improved from 65.36% to 93.62% after re-classification using the artificial neural network. Nevertheless, the error rate also increased from 13.46% to 37.64%, as well. It is likely that the machine learning approach used in the present study would benefit case studies where no prediction by risk warning systems becomes a relatively serious issue.

High-Risk Area for Human Infection with Avian Influenza Based on Novel Risk Assessment Matrix (위험 매트릭스(Risk Matrix)를 활용한 조류인플루엔자 인체감염증 위험지역 평가)

  • Sung-dae Park;Dae-sung Yoo
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2023
  • Over the last decade, avian influenza (AI) has been considered an emerging disease that would become the next pandemic, particularly in countries like South Korea, with continuous animal outbreaks. In this situation, risk assessment is highly needed to prevent and prepare for human infection with AI. Thus, we developed the risk assessment matrix for a high-risk area of human infection with AI in South Korea based on the notion that risk is the multiplication of hazards with vulnerability. This matrix consisted of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry farms and the number of poultry-associated production facilities assumed as hazards of avian influenza and vulnerability, respectively. The average number of HPAI in poultry farms at the 229-municipal level as the hazard axis of the matrix was predicted using a negative binomial regression with nationwide outbreaks data from 2003 to 2018. The two components of the matrix were classified into five groups using the K-means clustering algorithm and multiplied, consequently producing the area-specific risk level of human infection. As a result, Naju-si, Jeongeup-si, and Namwon-si were categorized as high-risk areas for human infection with AI. These findings would contribute to designing the policies for human infection to minimize socio-economic damages.

A Study on Hydrogeological Characteristics of Deep-Depth Rock Aquifer by Rock Types in Korea (국내 암종별 고심도 암반대수층 수리지질특성 연구)

  • Hangbok Lee;Chan Park;Dae-Sung Cheon;Junhyung Choi;Eui-Seob Park
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.374-392
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    • 2024
  • In order to successfully select a site for deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste, it is important to perform the stepwise approach along with the systematic selection and survey of evaluation parameters of geological environmental characteristics suitable for the domestic geological environment. In this study, we evaluated the characteristics of hydraulic conductivity, which is considered the most important evaluation parameter in the field of hydrogeology, targeting a deep-depth rock aquifer where actual disposal facilities are expected to be located. In particular, for the first time in Korea, we obtained in-situ pressure-flow data by directly conducting hydraulic tests in boreholes at depths ranging from 500 m to 750 m in various rock types distributed in Korea (granite/volcanic rock/gneiss/mudstone). And we derived hydraulic conductivity values by rock types and depth using verified analytical methods. For this purpose, precision hydraulic testing equipment developed in-house through this study was used, and detailed investigation procedures based on standard test methods were applied to field tests. As a result of the analysis, the average hydraulic conductivity value was found to be in the range of 10-9 m/s in all granite/volcanic rock/gneiss areas. In the mudstone area, an average hydraulic conductivity value of 10-11 m/s was derived, which was about 100 times (2 orders of magnitude) lower than that of the fractured rock aquifers. Moreover, permeability tended to slightly decrease with depth in fractured rock aquifers (granite and volcanic rock areas) containing many rock fractures. The gneiss area tended to have large local differences in permeability according to the composition of the stratum and the development of fracture zones rather than depth. In mudstone areas with weak fracture development, there was no significant variation in rock permeability according to depth. The hydraulic conductivity results by various rock types and depth presented in this study are expected to be utilized in building a foundational database for the site selection, design, and construction of disposal facilities in Korea.

Studies on Biology and Control of the Mulberry Small Weevil, Baris deplanata ROELOFS (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) (뽕나무애바구미의 생태 및 방제에 관한 연구)

  • 백현준;백운하
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.65-78
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    • 1976
  • The mulberry small weevil, Baris deplanata ROELOFS, has highly infested mulberry trees in Korea. As the damage caused by the mulberry small weevil in mulberry fields has been increased over the country since 1969, the authors has carried out a series of biological and controlling studies on the pest from 1971 to 1972. The results obtained are summarized as follows. 1. The adult weevil is elongate oval in shape with black in color and the probocis is long as usual in curculionidae. The size of adult female is 3.30${\pm}$0.04mm in length, 1.47${\pm}$0.04mm in width, and the length of proboscis is 1.25${\pm}$0.014mm, while adult male is 3.28${\pm}$0.06mm in length, 1.40${\pm}$0.04mm in width, and the length of proboscis is 1.30${\pm}$0.02mm. The antenna is geniculate consisting of 12 segments. The terminal sternite of the abdomen has a pointed tip in male but not in female. 2. The egg is long oval in shape, milky white in color, 0.51${\pm}$0.05mm in length and 0.32${\pm}$0.02mm in width. 3. The mature larva is cylindrical and light yellowow in color except the head of dark brown, and legless, 3.88${\pm}$0.06mm in length, 1.40${\pm}$0.02mm width, each segment bearing many wrinkless and short setae. 4. The pupa is long oval, milky white and exarate, 3.53${\pm}$0.09 in length, 1.40${\pm}$0.03mm in width. 5. Majority of the species has one generation through a year and overwinters as adult in xylem of withered branch and come out again from late April to early May in next year. But some of the female oviposit in the same year and the offsprings overwinter as larva (0.4%) or pupa (0.1%) 6. The eggs are mostly laid under the cork layer of withered branch and the number of eggs deposited by an adult female is 73.44${\pm}$8.74, the average egg-laying period is 33.88${\pm}$6.04 days. The incubation period is 11.69${\pm}$0.39 days, the larval period 45.04${\pm}$1.63 and the pupal period 11.05${\pm}$0.49 days. The period of adult's activity is 46.7${\pm}$5.90 days. 7. The larvae feed on the cambium under the bark and adults feed on the winter bud, the latent bud, the leaf stalk and the base of newly shoot. 8. An active period of adults was observed during the period of 4 months from April to July. However, the peak of adult-density occurred in the early May (in the fields of spring-prunning) and early to middle June(in the fields of summer-prunning). 9. There is a positive correlation between the density of larvae and diameter and length of the branches. 10. The pattern of distributions of the adult of mulberry small weevil is negative binomial distribution. 11. The chalcid fly was disclosed to be a natural enemy which was parasite on the larvae of mulberry small weevil and its parasitic ratio was 11.9%. 12. Phosvel D, Malix D, Salithion EC, DDVP EC, and Phosvel EC were effective for the control of adults and Satchukoto-S EC, and Salithio EC were effective for the control of larvae.

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