• Title/Summary/Keyword: 유행예측

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New economic policy uncertainty indexes for South Korea (새로운 우리나라 불확실성 지수의 작성)

  • Lee, Geung-Hee;Cho, Joo-Hee;Jo, Jin-Gyeong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.639-653
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    • 2020
  • Baker et al. (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134, 1593-1636, 2016) developed an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for South Korea in the same way as the U.S. EPU Index. However, the South Korean EPU index of Baker et al. (2016) has limitations as it did not fully reflect South Korean situation in terms of keyword selection and the selection of newspapers. We develop monthly South Korean economic policy uncertainty indexes with different keywords and news media. Various analyses have been conducted in order to examine the usefulness of the newly compiled indexes.

Prediction of infectious diseases using multiple web data and LSTM (다중 웹 데이터와 LSTM을 사용한 전염병 예측)

  • Kim, Yeongha;Kim, Inhwan;Jang, Beakcheol
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.139-148
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    • 2020
  • Infectious diseases have long plagued mankind, and predicting and preventing them has been a big challenge for mankind. For this reasen, various studies have been conducted so far to predict infectious diseases. Most of the early studies relied on epidemiological data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the problem was that the data provided by the CDC was updated only once a week, making it difficult to predict the number of real-time disease outbreaks. However, with the emergence of various Internet media due to the recent development of IT technology, studies have been conducted to predict the occurrence of infectious diseases through web data, and most of the studies we have researched have been using single Web data to predict diseases. However, disease forecasting through a single Web data has the disadvantage of having difficulty collecting large amounts of learning data and making accurate predictions through models for recent outbreaks such as "COVID-19". Thus, we would like to demonstrate through experiments that models that use multiple Web data to predict the occurrence of infectious diseases through LSTM models are more accurate than those that use single Web data and suggest models suitable for predicting infectious diseases. In this experiment, we predicted the occurrence of "Malaria" and "Epidemic-parotitis" using a single web data model and the model we propose. A total of 104 weeks of NEWS, SNS, and search query data were collected, of which 75 weeks were used as learning data and 29 weeks were used as verification data. In the experiment we predicted verification data using our proposed model and single web data, Pearson correlation coefficient for the predicted results of our proposed model showed the highest similarity at 0.94, 0.86, and RMSE was also the lowest at 0.19, 0.07.

Predicting the Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Using Deep Learning Models with Search Term Frequency Data (검색어 빈도 데이터를 반영한 코로나 19 확진자수 예측 딥러닝 모델)

  • Sungwook Jung
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.12 no.9
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    • pp.387-398
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    • 2023
  • The COVID-19 outbreak has significantly impacted human lifestyles and patterns. It was recommended to avoid face-to-face contact and over-crowded indoor places as much as possible as COVID-19 spreads through air, as well as through droplets or aerosols. Therefore, if a person who has contacted a COVID-19 patient or was at the place where the COVID-19 patient occurred is concerned that he/she may have been infected with COVID-19, it can be fully expected that he/she will search for COVID-19 symptoms on Google. In this study, an exploratory data analysis using deep learning models(DNN & LSTM) was conducted to see if we could predict the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases by summoning Google Trends, which played a major role in surveillance and management of influenza, again and combining it with data on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. In particular, search term frequency data used in this study are available publicly and do not invade privacy. When the deep neural network model was applied, Seoul (9.6 million) with the largest population in South Korea and Busan (3.4 million) with the second largest population recorded lower error rates when forecasting including search term frequency data. These analysis results demonstrate that search term frequency data plays an important role in cities with a population above a certain size. We also hope that these predictions can be used as evidentiary materials to decide policies, such as the deregulation or implementation of stronger preventive measures.

Relation between Motivations of Using Smartphone and Its Overuse in Health College Students (보건계열 대학생의 스마트폰 이용 동기와 과다사용 간의 관계)

  • Park, Dae-Sung;Yu, Eun-Yeong;Lee, Byung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.2281-2292
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    • 2013
  • This study was to examine the influential factors of smartphone overuse in health college students. The subjects of this study were randomly selected from the departments of Emergency Medical Technology, Physical Therapy and Health Administration at G College in G metropolitan city and 250 subjects were sampled. After explaining the purposes of the research from Oct. 22 to 25, 2012 and obtaining their consent to take part in the research, structured self-administered questionnaire was given and examined. Final 223 data were collected and used for analysis with SPSS 12.0 for Window. To sum up the results of the research, it was confirmed that the motives of using smartphone were highest in entertainment and leisure on withdrawal of overuse sub-factors, ostentation and trend on tolerance, entertainment and leisure on compulsion and obsession, ostentation and trend on life inconvenience and side-effects, and entertainment and leisure throughout its overuse motives. Therefore, development and application of preventive education programs on overuse smartphone use with health college students are urgently required and practical personal counseling and management for overuse smartphone users should be conducted.

미용실의 서비스 품질과 소비자 만족에 관한 연구

  • 황선아;황선진
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society of Costume Conference
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    • 2001.04a
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    • pp.44-45
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    • 2001
  • 다양해지는 소비자들의 패션에 대한 개성적 표현 욕구에 따라 우리나라 미용산업은 헤어, 메이크업과 피부미용, 네일케어 분야로 전문화.세분화되면서 토탈 패션산업의 주요영역으로 성장하고 있다. 이러 한 토탈 패션의 등장으로 미용서비스에 대한 수요증가로 양적으로는 상당히 그 규모가 증가했음에도 불구하고, 서버스 품질에 대해서는 고객들에게 확실한 신뢰를 주지 못하고 있다. 이는 국내 미용업계가 미용서비스 제공자의 관점에서 일방적인 서비스를 창출하여 왔고, 고객이 바라는 서비스의 내용과 품질을 제대로 파악하지 못하고 있다는 사실을 의미하고 있다. 따라서, 본 연구는 미용실의 서비스품질의 구성 요인을 확인하고. 미용실의 서비스품질과 소비자 만 족과의 관계를 알아보는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위한 본 연구의 연구문제는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 미용실의 서비스 품질을 결정하는 요인에는 어떠한 것이 있는가\ulcorner 둘째, 미용실의 서비스 품질 중 소비자 만족과 관련하여 상대적으로 중요한 서비스 품질 결정요인은 무엇인가\ulcorner 본 연구를 위한 예비조사에서는 개방형 질문(open-ended question)을 실시하였다. 예비조사결과 프랜차이즈 미용실, 시내중심가 미용실 그리고 집.직장 근처 미용실의 3가지 유형의 미용실은 그 규모나 소비 자 인식이 상이하여 미용실의 서비스품질 차원을 연구하는데 유용한 것으로 나타났다. 본조사에서는 설문지법을 이용하였으며, 그 대상은 서울 지역의 3가지 유형의 미용실을 이용하는 고객들중 2 20-30대의 주요 고객층으로 정하였고 편의 표집하였다. 분석방법으로는 신뢰도 검증을 위해서는 Cronbach's 외 alpha값을 활용하였고, 미용실의 서비스품질 차원의 개념 타당성을 알아보기 위하여 LISREL을 이용한 확인 적 요인분석(confirmatory factor analysis)을 실시하였다. 또한 미용실의 유형에 따른 서비스 품질의 차이를 알아보기 위해서 일원변량분석(one-way ANDV A)을 실시하였으며, 서비스품질 속성들 중 소비자 만족을 결정하는 요인들을 알아보기 위해서 다중 회귀분석(multiple regression analysis)을 실시하였다. 본 연구의 결과들을 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 미용실의 서비스 품질을 결정하는 요인으로 는 물리적 서비스(유형성, 접근성, 청결성), 판매원 관련 서비스(감정배려, 능력), 정책관련 서비스(점포운영, 명성, 신용카드) , 미용기술관련 서비스로 나타났다. 둘째, 미용실의 서비스 품질을 결정하는 요인들에 있어서 점포 유형간의 차이를 분석한 결과 전체적으로 응답자들은 프랜차이즈 미용실의 서버스 품질에 가장 만족했으며, 시내중심가 미용실과 집근처 미용 실 순으로 나타났다. 셋째, 미용실의 소비자 만족을 예측하는데 유의한 서비스 품질 결정 요일을 살펴보면, 프랜차이즈 미용 실은 청결성($\beta$ =.30), 감정배려($\beta$ =.54), 명성($\beta$ =.60), 미용기술관련 서비스 차원($\beta$ =.68)이 결정 요인으로 나타났다. 시내중심가 미용실은 청결성($\beta$ =.39), 직원의 능력($\beta$ =.49), 명성($\beta$ =.59), 미용기술관련 서비스 차원($\beta$ =.68)가 서비스 결정 요인이었고, 집근처 미용실은 청결성($\beta$ =.27), 감정배려 ($\beta$ =.57), 명성($\beta$ =.73), 미용기술관련 서비스 차원 ($\beta$ =.60)으로 나타났다. 이것으로 미용실의 소비자 만족을 예측하는데 유의한 서비스 품질 결정 요인은 청결성, 감정배려, 명성, 상품관련 서비스임을 알 수 있다. 본 연구의 방법론적 의미는 그 동안 개발된 소매점이나 패션점포의 서비스 품질에 대한 평기척도를 우리나라 미용실에 적용해 봄으로써 미용실의 특성인 유행성, 청결성, 미용실의 명성, 직원과의 친분 등을 포함한 미용실의 서비스 품질 차원과 그 신뢰성 과 유용성을 입증하였다는데 그 의미가 있다. 또한 본 연구의 결과는 미용실 서비스에 대한 소비자들의 인식과 각 미용실의 유형에 따른 소비자 만족을 예측하는데 중요한 서비스 품질 결정 요인들을 통해서 좀 더 나은 미용서비스를 정착시키는데 필요한 전략 을 수립할 수 있다는데 실질적 의미를 지닌다.

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Predictors of MERS-related Preventive Behaviors Performance among Clinical Practice Students in a Tertiary Hospital (상급종합병원 임상실습 학생의 메르스 예방행위 수행 예측요인)

  • Kim, Hee Sun;Park, Jin Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.9
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    • pp.174-185
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to explore the levels of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)-related knowledge, attitudes and preventive behaviors performance and to identify predictors of MERS-related preventive behaviors performance among clinical practice students in a tertiary hospital. The participants were 480 nursing and medical clinical practice students. Data collection was conducted using self-reported questionnaires in June of 2015 and were analyzed using descriptive statistics, independent t-tests, one-way ANOVA, and hierarchical regression using the SPSSWIN 24.0 program. The MERS-related knowledge (9.56 out of 13 points) was high, attitudes towards MERS, such as severity cognition and prevention about MERS was positive (4.15 out of 5 points), and MERS-related preventive behaviors performance level was moderate (3.02 out of 5 points). Female students, having education experience regarding MERS, taking vaccination for influenza H1N1 infection in the last year, having the intention of taking influenza H1N1 in the current year, having fear of MERS infection, higher knowledge and more positive attitudes about MERS were predictors of better MERS-related preventive behaviors performance. These results show that general characteristics associated with MERS-related preventive behaviors performance should be considered to improve preventive behaviors of clinical practice students. Furthermore, this study highlights the need to develop effective and useful MERS education programs that provide essential knowledge and attitude about MERS that clinical practice students must acquire to promote the MERS-related preventive behaviors performance.

Influence of Climate Factors and PM10 on Rotaviral Infection: A Seasonal Variation Study (Rotavirus 감염의 연도별 유행시기의 변동양상 및 기후요소와 PM10과의 관계)

  • Im, Hae-Ra;Jeon, In-Sang;Tchah, Hann;Im, Jeong-Soo;Ryoo, Eell;Sun, Yong-Han;Cho, Kang-Ho;Im, Ho-Joon;Lee, Gwang-Hoon;Lee, Hak-Soo;Kang, Yune-Jeung;Noh, Yi-Gn
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.120-128
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: Recently, while the authors were experiencing that the epidemic period of rotaviral infection happened more in the early spring, we tried to find out how the outbreaks of rotaviral infection are changing in detail depending on the weather condition since it has something to do with the climate factors and PM10. Methods: Fourteen hundreds seventy nine patients who were proved to be positive to rotavirus were chosen among children less than 5 years old from January 1995 to June 2003. Among various climate factors, monthly average temperature, humidity, rainfall and PM10 were selected. Results: Rotaviral infection was most active in 2002 as 309 (20.9%) patients. It has been the spring that is the most active period of rotaviral infection since 2000. The temperature (RR=0.9423, CI=0.933424~0.951163), rainfall (RR=1.0024, CI=1.001523~1.003228) and PM10 (RR=1.0123, CI=1.009385~1.015248) were significantly associated with the monthly distribution of rotaviral infection. Conclusion: Through this study we determined that the epidemic period of rotaviral infection is changed to spring, which is different from the usual seasonal periods such as late fall or winter as reported in previous articles. As increased PM10 which could give serious influence to the human body, and changing pattern of climate factors such as monthly average temperature and rainfall have something to do with the rotaviral infection, we suppose that further study concerning this result is required in the aspects of epidemiology, biology and atmospheric science.

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Epidemiologic and clinical features in children with acute lower respiratory tract infection caused by human metapneumovirus in 2006-2007 (2006-2007년 소아 급성 하기도 감염증에서 유행한 메타뉴모바이러스의 유행 및 임상 양상)

  • Park, Gwi Ok;Kim, Ji Hyun;Lee, Jae Hee;Lee, Jung Ju;Yun, Sin Weon;Lim, In Seok;Lee, Dong Keun;Choi, Eung Sang;Yoo, Byoung Hoon;Lee, Mi Kyung;Chae, Soo Ahn
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.330-338
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    • 2009
  • Purpose : The causes of acute lower respiratory tract infection (ALRTI) are mostly attributable to viral infection, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus A/B (IFV A/B), or adenovirus (ADV). Several Korean studies reported human metapneumovirus (hMPV) as a common pathogen of ALRTI. However, studies on seasonal distribution and clinical differences relative to other viruses are insufficient, prompting us to perform this study. Methods : From November 2006 to October 2007, we tested nasopharyngeal aspiration specimens in children hospitalized with ALRTI with the multiplex reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction to identify 6 kinds of common pathogen (hMPV, RSV, PIV, IFV A/B, and ADV). We analyzed positive rates and clinical features by respiratory chart review. Results : We detected 38 (8.4%) hMPV-positive cases out of 193 (41.8%) virus-positive specimens among 462 patients. HMPV infection prevailed from March to June with incidence peaking in April. HMPV-positive patients were aged 15 years (76.3%), and the ratio of boys to girls was 1.2:1. The median age was 27 months. HMPV primarily caused pneumonia (76.3 %) (P=0.018). Average hospitalization of HMPV-associated ALRTI patients was 5.8 days. In addition, they showed parahilar peribronchial infiltration (100%) on chest X-ray, normal white blood cell count (73.7%), and negative C-reactive protein (86.8 %) (P>0.05). All hMPV-positive patients recovered without complication. Conclusion : HMPV is a common pathogen of ALRTI in Korean children, especially in 1-5 year olds, from March to May. Immunocompetent children diagnosed with hMPV-associated ALRTI may have a good prognosis.

Epidemiological Characterization of Influenza Virus Isolated from Acute Respiratory Illness in Busan, 2004-2005 (최근 2년간 부산지역에서 급성호흡기 환자로부터 분리한 인플루엔자바이러스의 유행 양상)

  • Cho, Kyung-Soon;Park, Sun-Mee;Kim, Seang-Joon;Jung, Myung-Ju;Lee, Joo-Yeon;Kang, Chun
    • Korean Journal of Microbiology
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.173-178
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    • 2007
  • The occurrence of acute respiratory infections caused by the influenza virus are particularly high during the winter season in Busan, Korea. In 2004 and 2005, a study of the rate of occurrences of the influenza virus was conducted. The results reveal that in 2004, of the 1,869 people with an acute respiratory infection that 154 (8.2%) people were infected by the influenza virus. In 2005, of the 1,579 people infected with an acute respiratory infection that 19 people (1.2%) were infected with the influenza virus. The study shows a decrease in the numbers of an influenza virus infection from 2004 to 2005. Data was collected by inspecting throat swabs and nasal discharge from those with an acute respiratory infection. Further inspection of the throat swab and nasal discharge from the infected individuals during 2004 and 2005 study show the occurrence of the different types of influenza virus in the population: 6 cases (3.5%) of influenza type A/H1N1, 129 cases (74.5%) of A/H3N2, and 38 cases (22.0%) of type B. The study conducted in 2004 and 2005 reveal that children between the ages of two and five were more likely to be infected than any other age group. In the study, about 62.2% of the infected individuals were between two and five years old. The detection rates between males and females are similar. However, it is notable that females are slightly more likely to develop an acute respiratory infection caused by the influence virus compared to their male counterparts.

Study on the Image of Blue in Apparel Design (복식에 표현된 청색 이미지의 고찰)

  • 강병희;김영인
    • Archives of design research
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    • no.18
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 1996
  • The purpose of this study is to classify the images of blue based on expressive values communicated by color on symbolic aspects and the blue images expressed in modem apparel fashion. Images of blue are classified through the document studies as follows : The expressive values of blue are cold, receding, and sedative. Based on these values, affimative images of blue are classified infinite, lofty, peaceful, tranquil and contemplate. Negative images are classified sad, indecent, rebellious, and indignant. In apparel fashion, blue acted as a important image factor in classic, workwear, military and marine look. Blue green and purple blue in pale, greyish and light tones were showed as trend color. Meanwhile, purple blues in dark greyish, pale and greyish tones were more used for domestic womens wear.

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