• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.525-539
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• 2024

Massive multiplayer online role playing game (MMORPG) is a common type of game these days. Predicting user churn in MMORPG is a crucial task. The retention rate of users is deeply associated with the lifespan and revenue of the service. If the churn of a specific user can be predicted in advance, targeted promotions can be used to encourage their stay. Therefore, not only the accuracy of churn prediction but also the speed at which signs of churn can be detected is important. In this paper, we propose methods to identify early signs of churn by utilizing the daily predicted user retention probabilities. We train various deep learning and machine learning models using log data and estimate user retention probabilities. By analyzing the change patterns in these probabilities, we provide empirical rules for early identification of users at high risk of churn. Performance evaluations confirm that our methodology is more effective at detecting high risk users than existing methods based on login days. Finally, we suggest novel methods for customized marketing strategies. For this purpose, we provide guidelines of the percentage of accessed users who are at risk of churn.

• Journal of KIISE
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.314-322
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• 2017

In MMORPG (Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game), users advance their own characters to get to the maximum (max) level by performing given tasks in the game scenario. Although it is crucial to retain users with high levels for running online games successfully, little efforts have been paid to investigate them. In this study, by analyzing approximately 60 million in-game logs of over 50,000 users, we aimed to investigate the process through which users achieve the max level and churn of such users since the moment of achieving the max level, and determine possible indicators related to churn after the max level. Based on the result, we can predict churn of the max level users by employing behavioral patterns before the max level. Moreover, we found users who are socially active and communicate with many people before the max level are less likely to leave the service (p<0.05). This study supports that communication patterns are important factors for persistent usage of the users who achieve the max level, which has practical implications to guide elite users on enjoying online games in the long run.