• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.10
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• pp.905-916
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the climate change impact on watershed hydrology and flow duration in Geum River basin ($9,645.5km^2$) especially by extreme scenarios. The rainfall related extreme index, STARDEX (STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes) was adopted to select the future extreme scenario from the 10 GCMs with RCP 8.5 scenarios by four projection periods (Historical: 1975~2005, 2020s: 2011~2040, 2050s: 2041~2070, 2080s: 2071~2100). As a result, the 5 scenarios of wet (CESM1-BGC and HadGEM2-ES), normal (MPI-ESM-MR), and dry (INM-CM4 and FGOALS-s2) were selected and applied to SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The wet scenarios showed big differences comparing with the normal scenario in 2080s period. The 2080s evapotranspiration (ET) of wet scenarios varied from -3.2 to +3.1 mm, the 2080s total runoff (TR) varied from +5.5 to +128.4 mm. The dry scenarios showed big differences comparing with the normal scenario in 2020s period. The 2020s ET for dry scenarios varied from -16.8 to -13.3 mm and the TR varied from -264.0 to -132.3 mm respectively. For the flow duration change, the CFR (coefficient of flow regime, Q10/Q355) was altered from +4.2 to +10.5 for 2080s wet scenarios and from +1.7 to +2.6 for 2020s dry scenarios. As a result of the flow duration analysis according to the change of the hydrological factors of the Geum River basin applying the extreme climate change scenario, INM-CM4 showed suitable scenario to show extreme dry condition and FGOALS-s2 showed suitable scenario for the analysis of the drought condition with large flow duration variability. HadGEM2-ES was evaluated as a scenario that can be used for maximum flow analysis because the flow duration variability was small and CESM1-BGC was evaluated as a scenario that can be applied to the case of extreme flood analysis with large flow duration variability.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.307-319
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• 2002

This study used the WGR model to generate the rainfall input and the modified Clark method to estimate the runoff with the aim of investigating how the errors from the areal average rainfall propagates to runoff estimates. This was done for several cases of raingauge density and also by considering several storm directions. Summarizing the study results are as follows. (1) Rainfall and runoff errors decrease exponentially as the raingauge density increases. However, the error stagnates after a threshold density of raingauges. (2) Rainfall errors more affect to runoff estimates when the density of raingauges is relatively low. Generally, the ratio between estimation errors of rainfall and runoff volumes was found much less than one, which indicates that there is a smoothing effect of the basin. However, the ratio between estimation errors of rainfall to peak flow becomes greater than one to indicate the amplification of rainfall effect to peak flow. (3) For the study basin in this studs no significant effect of storm direction could be found. However, the runoff error becomes higher when the storm and drainage directions are identical. Also, the error was found higher for the peak flow than for the overall runoff hydrograph.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.35-46
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• 2008

Soil moisture is one of the important components in hydrological processes and also controls the subsurface flow mechanism at a hillslope scale. In this study, time series of soil moisture were measured at a hillslope located in Gwangneung National Arboretum, Korea using a multiplex Time Domain Reflectometry(TDR) system measuring soil moisture with bi-hour interval. The Box-Jenkins transfer function and noise model was used to estimate spatial distributions of soil moisture histories between May and September, 2007. Rainfall was used as an input parameter and soil moisture at 10 cm depth was used as an output parameter in the model. The modeling process consisted of a series of procedures(e.g., data pretreatment, model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking of selected models), and the relationship between soil moisture and rainfall was assessed. The results indicated that the patterns of soil moisture at different locations and slopes along the hillslope were similar with those of rainfall during the measurment period. However, the spatial distribution of soil moisture was not associated with the slope of the monitored location. This implies that the variability of the soil moisture was determined more by rainfall than by the slope of the site. Due to the influence of vegetation activity on soil moisture flow in spring, the soil moisture prediction in spring showed higher variability and complexity than that in early autumn did. This indicates that vegetation activity is an important factor explaining the patterns of soil moisture for an upland forested hillslope.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.88-99
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• 2007

Soil moisture is one of the essential components in determining surface hydrological processes such as infiltration, surface runoff as well as meteorological, ecological and water quality responses at watershed scale. This paper discusses soil moisture transfer processes measured at hillslope scale in the Gwangneung forest catchment to understand and provide the basis of stochastic structures of soil moisture variation. Measured soil moisture series were modelled based upon the developed univariate model platform. The modeling consists of a series of procedures: pre-treatment of data, model structure investigation, selection of candidate models, parameter estimation and diagnostic checking. The spatial distribution of model is associated with topographic characteristics of the hillslope. The upslope area computed by the multiple flow direction algorithm and the local slope are found to be effective parameters to explain the distribution of the model structure. This study enables us to identify the key factors affecting the soil moisture distribution and to ultimately construct a realistic soil moisture map in a complex landscape such as the Gwangneung Supersite.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.105-123
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• 2018

Currently, satellite images act as essential and important data in water resources, environment, and ecology as well as information of geographic information system. In this paper, we will investigate basic characteristics of satellite images, especially application examples in water resources. In recent years, researches on spatial and temporal characteristics of large-scale regions utilizing the advantages of satellite imagery have been actively conducted for fundamental hydrological components such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture and natural disasters such as drought, flood, and heavy snow. Furthermore, it is possible to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics such as vegetation characteristics, plant production, net primary production, turbidity of water bodies, chlorophyll concentration, and water quality by using various image information utilizing various sensor information of satellites. Korea is planning to launch a satellite for water resources and environment in the near future, so various researches are expected to be activated on this field.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.1126-1139
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• 2014

World is experiencing abnormal weather caused by urbanization and industrialization increasing greenhouse gas and one of these phenomenon domestically happening is flood and drought. The increase of green-house gases is due to urbanization and industrialization acceleration which are causing abnormal climate changes such as the El Nino and a La Nina phenomenon. It is expected that there will be many difficulties in water management, especially considering the topography and seasonal circumstances in Korea. Unlike in the past, a variety of water conservation initiatives have been undertaken like the river-management flow and water capacity expansion projects. To meet the increasing demand for water resources, new environmentally-friendly small and medium-sized dams have been built. Therefore, the development of a new paradigm for water resources management is essential. This study shows that additional security is needed for potential water resources through diversion tunnels and is very important to consider for future water supplies and situations. Using RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 in representative concentration pathway climate change scenario, specific hydrologic data of study basin was produced to analyze past observed basin rainfall tendency which showed both scenario 5%~9% range increase in rainfall. Through sensitivity analysis using objective function, population in highest goodness was 1000 and cross rate was 80%. In conclusion, it is expected that the results from this study will help to make long-term and stable water supply plans by using the potential water resource evaluation model which was applied in this study.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.8
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• pp.695-707
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• 2010

The frequency and size of typhoon and local severe rainfall are increasing due to the climate change and the damage also increasing from typhoon and severe rainfall. The flood forecasting and warning system to reduce the damage from typhoon and severe rainfall needs forecasted rainfall using radar data and short-term rainfall forecasting model. For this reason, this study examined the applicability of short-term rainfall forecast using translation model with weather radar data to point out that the utilization of flood forecasting in Korea. This study estimated the radar rainfall using Least-square fitting method and estimated rainfall was used as initial field of translation model. The translation model have verified accuracy of forecasted radar rainfall through the comparison of forecasted radar rainfall and observed rainfall quantitatively and qualitatively. Almost case studies showed that accuracy is over 0.6 within 4 hours leading time and mean of correlation coefficient is over 0.5 within 1 hours leading time in Kwanak and Jindo radar site. And, as the increasing the leading time, the forecast accuracy of precipitation decreased. The results of the calculated Mean Area Precipitation (MAP) showed forecast rainfall tend to be underestimated than observed rainfall but the correlation coefficient more than 0.5. Therefore it showed that translation model could be accurately predicted the rainfall relatively. The present results indicate that possibility of translation model application of Korea just within 2 hours leading forecasted rainfall.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.2255-2265
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• 2013

This study presents the width function-based Clark model. To this end, rescaled width function with distinction between hillslope and channel velocity is used as time-area curve and then it is routed through linear storage within the framework of not finite difference scheme used in original Clark model but analytical expression of linear storage routing. There are three parameters focused in this study: storage coefficient, hillslope velocity and channel velocity. SCE-UA, one of the popular global optimization methods, is applied to estimate them. The shapes of resulting IUHs from this study are evaluated in terms of the three statistical moments of hydrologic response functions: mean, variance and the third moment about the center of IUH. The correlation coefficients to the three statistical moments simulated in this study against these of observed hydrographs were estimated at 0.995 for the mean, 0.993 for the variance and 0.983 for the third moment about the center of IUH. The shape of resulting IUHs from this study give rise to satisfactory simulation results in terms of the mean and variance. But the third moment about the center of IUH tend to be overestimated. Clark model proposed in this study is superior to the one only taking into account mean and variance of IUH with respect to skewness, peak discharge and peak time of runoff hydrograph. From this result it is confirmed that the method suggested in this study is useful tool to reflect the heterogeneity of drainage path and hydrodynamic parameters. The variation of statistical moments of IUH are mainly influenced by storage coefficient and in turn the effect of channel velocity is greater than the one of hillslope velocity. Therefore storage coefficient and channel velocity are the crucial factors in shaping the form of IUH and should be considered carefully to apply Clark model proposed in this study.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.659-672
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• 2001

Generally, design flood for a hydraulic structure is estimated using statistical analysis of runoff data. However, due to the lack of runoff data, it is difficult that the statistical method is applied for estimation of design flood. In this case, the synthetic unit hydrograph method is used generally and the models such as NYMO method, Snyder method, SCS method, and HYMO method have been widely used in Korea. In this study, these methods and KICT method, which is developed in year 2000, are compared and analyzed in 10 study areas. Firstly, peak flow and peak time of representative unit hydrograph and synthetic unit hydrograph in study area are compared, and secondly, the shape of unit hydrograph is compared using a root mean square error(RMSE). In Nakayasu method developed in Japan, synthetic unit hydrograph is very different from peak flow, peak time, and the shape of representative unit hydrograph, and KICT method(2000) is superior to others. Also, KICT method(2000) is superior to others in the aspects of using hydrologic and topographical data. Therefore, Nakayasu method is not a proper in hydrological practice. Moreover, it is considered that KICT model is a better method for the estimation of design flood. However, if other model, i.e. SCS method, Nakayasu method, and HYMO method, is used, parameters or regression equations must be adjusted by analysis of real data in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.2
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• pp.97-105
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• 2020

Recently, Artificial Neural Network receives attention as a data prediction method. Among these, a Long Shot-term Memory (LSTM) model specialized for time-series data prediction was utilized as a prediction method of hydrological time series data. In this study, the LSTM model was constructed utilizing deep running open source library TensorFlow which provided by Google, to predict inflows of multipurpose dams. We predicted the inflow of the Yongdam Multipurpose Dam which is located in the upper stream of the Geumgang. The hourly flow data of Yongdam Dam from 2006 to 2018 provided by WAMIS was used as the analysis data. Predictive analysis was performed under various of variable condition in order to compare and analyze the prediction accuracy according to four learning parameters of the LSTM model. Root mean square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE) and Volume error (VE) were calculated and evaluated its accuracy through comparing the predicted and observed inflows. We found that all the models had lower accuracy at high inflow rate and hourly precipitation data (2006~2018) of Yongdam Dam utilized as additional input variables to solve this problem. When the data of rainfall and inflow were utilized together, it was found that the accuracy of the prediction for the high flow rate is improved.