• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험성예측모델

Search Result 303, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Effect of Probiotics on Risk Factors for Human Disease: A Review (인간 질병의 위험 요인에 대한 Probiotics의 효과: 총설)

  • Chon, Jung-Whan;Kim, Dong-Hyeon;Kim, Hyun-Sook;Kim, Hong-Seok;Hwang, Dae-Geun;Song, Kwang-Young;Yim, Jin-Hyuk;Choi, Dasom;Lim, Jong-Soo;Seo, Kun-Ho
    • Journal of Dairy Science and Biotechnology
    • /
    • v.32 no.1
    • /
    • pp.17-29
    • /
    • 2014
  • GRAS probiotics can be used to modulate intestinal microbiota and to alleviate various gastrointestinal disorders. In several recent studies, researchers have explored the potential expansion and usability of probiotics to reduce the risk factors associated with diseases, including obesity, hypercholesterolemia, arterial hypertension, hyperhomocysteinemia, and oxidative stress. In this review, our aim was to clarify the mechanism underlying interactions between hosts (animal or human) and probiotics and the beneficial effects of probiotics on human health.

  • PDF

The Investigation of failure rates in traction power equipments (철도전철전력설비 고장율 분석)

  • Kim, Hyung-Chul;Lee, Byung-Song;Park, Chan-Bae;Kim, Jin-O
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
    • /
    • 2008.11a
    • /
    • pp.270-272
    • /
    • 2008
  • 철도전력설비에서 고장을 예측은 신뢰성기반 유지보수 및 신뢰성 및 안전성 분석에 가장 기본적인 요소 중의 하나이다. 본 논문에서는 전철전력설비 관련 국제 규격서를 검토하여 소개하였으며, 실제 철도전력시스템에서 발생하는 사고데이타를 분석하여 그에 따른 고장율과 고장데이타가 적을 경우 추정하여 철도 급전시스템에 적용할 수 있는 데이터베이스를 구축하고자 한다. 이러한 모델과 계산법의 목적은 시스템의 신뢰도 수준 결정, 시스템의 디자인 평가, 시스템 운영, 점검, 유지보수 프로그램 방침 평가 및 위험도 평가에 기여할 수 있다.

  • PDF

A Hydrogen Sensor Experiment on the Ventilation Performance of a Cavity upon Hydrogen Leakage and Its CFD Simulation (수소 센서를 이용한 밀폐공간의 수소 누출 시 환기성능에 대한 실험 및 CFD 시뮬레이션)

  • Kim, Young-Doo;Shin, Dong-Hoon;Chung, Tae-Yong;Nam, Jin-Hyun;Kim, Young-Gyu
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2007.11a
    • /
    • pp.59-62
    • /
    • 2007
  • 연료전지는 수소를 이용하여 전기를 생산하는 발전 시스템으로 운전 중 수소 누출과 폭발의 위험성을 항상 수반하고 있다. 따라서 안전성의 확보를 위해 연료전지 시스템 내부에서 수소 누출 시 유e동 특성으로 인한 특정 부근 농도 정체와 환기의 영향을 파악하는 것이 필요하다. 실험 장치와 전산유체역학 프로그램을 사용하여 챔버 내 수소의 유통 특성과 환기구에 따른 환기의 영향을 확인하였다. 수소의 누출 속도와 양에 따라 유동장의 형태는 크게 변하였으며 환기구의 위치와 크기는 특정 부근의 농도정체와 챔버 내 전체적인 수소 농도에 영향을 미침으로서 안정성을 확보하는 중요한 인자임을 알 수 있었다. 예측 결과를 실제 실험 모델과 비교하여 그 타당성을 검토하였으며 차후 가정용 연료전지 모듈의 환기구 설계에 적용할 수 있다.

  • PDF

Study on Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Response using a SWAT model in the Xe Bang Fai River Basin, Lao People's Democratic Republic (기후변화에 따른 라오스인민공화국의 시방파이 유역의 수문현상 예측에 대한 연구: SWAT 모델을 이용하여)

  • Phomsouvanh, Virasith;Phetpaseuth, Vannaphone;Park, Soo Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
    • /
    • v.51 no.6
    • /
    • pp.779-797
    • /
    • 2016
  • A calibrated hydrological model is a useful tool for quantifying the impacts of the climate variations and land use/land cover changes on sediment load, water quality and runoff. In the rainy season each year, the Xe Bang Fai river basin is provisionally flooded because of typhoons, the frequency and intensity of which are sensitive to ongoing climate change. Severe heavy rainfall has continuously occurred in this basin area, often causing severe floods at downstream of the Xe Bang Fai river basin. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the climate change impact on river discharge using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model based on future climate change scenarios. In this study, the simulation of hydrological river discharge is used by SWAT model, covering a total area of $10,064km^2$ in the central part of country. The hydrological model (baseline) is calibrated and validated for two periods: 2001-2005 and 2006-2010, respectively. The monthly simulation outcomes during the calibration and validation model are good results with $R^2$ > 0.9 and ENS > 0.9. Because of ongoing climate change, three climate models (IPSL CM5A-MR 2030, GISS E2-R-CC 2030 and GFDL CM3 2030) indicate that the rainfall in this area is likely to increase up to 10% during the summer monsoon season in the near future, year 2030. As a result of these precipitation increases, the SWAT model predicts rainy season (Jul-Aug-Sep) river discharge at the Xebangfai@bridge station will be about $800m^3/s$ larger than the present. This calibrated model is expected to contribute for preventing flood disaster risk and sustainable development of Laos

  • PDF

A Study on Auto-Classification of Aviation Safety Data using NLP Algorithm (자연어처리 알고리즘을 이용한 위험기반 항공안전데이터 자동분류 방안 연구)

  • Sung-Hoon Yang;Young Choi;So-young Jung;Joo-hyun Ahn
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
    • /
    • v.26 no.6
    • /
    • pp.528-535
    • /
    • 2022
  • Although the domestic aviation industry has made rapid progress with the development of aircraft manufacturing and transportation technologies, aviation safety accidents continue to occur. The supervisory agency classifies hazards and risks based on risk-based aviation safety data, identifies safety trends for each air transportation operator, and conducts pre-inspections to prevent event and accidents. However, the human classification of data described in natural language format results in different results depending on knowledge, experience, and propensity, and it takes a considerable amount of time to understand and classify the meaning of the content. Therefore, in this journal, the fine-tuned KoBERT model was machine-learned over 5,000 data to predict the classification value of new data, showing 79.2% accuracy. In addition, some of the same result prediction and failed data for similar events were errors caused by human.

Sensitivity of Hydraulic Structures Design Parameter by Climate Change (기후변화에 의한 수공구조물 설계인자 민감도 연구)

  • Kong, Jung-Sik;Kim, UlAnYi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2011.05a
    • /
    • pp.419-419
    • /
    • 2011
  • 이상호우, 사막화, 빙하융해, 생태계 먹이사슬 변화, 이상기온 등 기후변화의 행태는 지구 곳곳에서 다양하게 발발되고 있으며 그로인해 발생되는 인적 물적 피해가 심각하다. 1996년 집중호우에 의한 연천댐체 파괴, 2002년 8월의 낙동강 유역 장기홍수, 2002년 태풍 루사 및 2003년 태풍 매미 등 국내에서는 기후변화 중에서도 주로 이상호우로 인해 발생하는 피해가 많았으며 이들은 주기성이나 특성을 갖지 않아 예측이 어려운 관계로 망양보뢰 식의 후처리에 급급한 실정이었다. 최근 기후변화에 따른 지역별 홍수량, 가뭄량 등에 관한 연구가 가속화되고 있으며, 이와 더불어 해당 기후모델 발현 시 기존 구조물에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구도 필수적이다. 나아가 기존 구조물 뿐 아니라 새로 시공되는 구조물의 설계에서 기후변화에 대한 안정성을 위해 추가적으로 포함해야 할 요소가 있는지에 대한 연구도 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 가상 기후모델에 대해 그 모델이 예측하는 홍수량이 실제 발현되었을 경우를 가정하여, 기존 수공구조물의 안정성에 미치는 영향을 살펴보고 영향인자의 민감도를 분석하고자 한다. 대상 수공구조물은 붕괴 시 영향력이 큰 정도를 기준으로 필댐, 콘크리트차수벽형석괴댐(CFRD), 콘크리트중력식댐, 제방으로 그 범주를 제한 하였으며 대상유역은 한강으로 가정하였다. 구조물의 안정성 검토방법은 각 구조물의 종류에 따라 상이하다. 흙이 주 재료인 제방과 필댐의 경우, 침투(Piping)와 비탈면(Sliding)에 대한 안정성 평가가 이루어지며 CFRD는 댐체와 벽체로 나누어 안정성평가를 하며 댐체 안정성 평가방법은 필댐과 유사하다. 본 연구에서는 하천설계기준(2009)과 댐설계기준(2005)에 따라 각 구조물의 기준안전율을 책정하였으며 점착력, 내부마찰각, 단위중량 등의 물성치는 해당 지역의 토질특성에 따라 여러 문헌을 참고하여 설정하였고 이를 SEEP/W, SLOPE/W 프로그램을 이용하여 구조해석을 실시하였다. 콘크리트중력식댐은 활동, 전도, 지지력에 대해 각각 안정성을 평가하며 MIDAS와 ABAQUS 프로그램을 병행하여 해석하였다. 민감도(Sensitivity)란 안정성에 영향을 미치는 설계인자들의 변화에 따라 안정성이 어떻게 변화하는 지를 말한다. 기후변화에 의한 수공구조물 설계인자 민감도 연구를 통해 기존 설계과정 또는 안정성 검토 시 해당인자의 기여도를 높이거나 새로운 설계인자를 추가하여 미래 상황에 대한 구조물의 위험 정도를 과거대비 상세히 예측할 수 있으며 나아가 적절한 대응 방안 제시에 기여하여 기후변화에 따른 피해를 감소할 수 있을 것이라고 생각된다.

  • PDF

Gas Explosion Hazard Analysis in Domestic (가정집에서 가스폭발 위험성 분석)

  • Jo Young-Do;Kim Ji-Yun;Kim Sang-sub
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
    • /
    • v.5 no.2 s.14
    • /
    • pp.36-42
    • /
    • 2001
  • A leak of fuel gas in partially confined area creates a flammable atmosphere and give rise to an explosion, which is one of the most common accident in domestic. Observations from accident in domestic suggest that some explosions are caused by a quantify of fuel significantly less than lower explosion limit(LEL) amount required to fill the room, which is attributed to inhomogeneous mixing of leaked gas. The minimum amount of leaked gas for explosion is highly dependent on the mixing degree in the area. For lighter gas, such as methane, a high concentration tends to build up in the space from ceiling of room. But heavy gas, such as propane, a high concentration tends to build up in the space from bottom of room. This paper presents a method for analysing the explosion hazard in a room with very small amount of leaked gas. Based on explosion limit concentration, the gaussian distribution model is used to estimate the minimum amount of leak which yields a specified explosion pressure. The results demonstrate that catastrophic structural damage can be achieved with a volume of fuel gas which is less than 0.5 percent of the total enclosed volume in domestic. The method will help analyzing hazard to develop new safe device as well as investigating accident.

  • PDF

Association Between Liver Enzyme and Risk of All-Cause Mortality: Use of Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) Data (간 효소(AST, ALT)와 전체원인사망 위험의 관련성: 한국인유전체역학조사 자료 활용)

  • Lee, Tae-Yong;Ryu, Hyo-Sun;Park, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.11
    • /
    • pp.94-103
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to investigate the association of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) with all-cause mortality among populations. The data used were from a Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) based on health examinations and questionnaires. The subjects consisted of 10,110 persons aged 40 and over. Hazard ratio was analyzed using Cox's proportional hazard model. The hazard ratio of AST (${\geq}50.0\;IU/L$) was 2.198 (95% CI: 1.217-3.971) after being adjusted for age, sex, education, regular exercise, smoking, drinking, WHR, and TG. In conclusion, AST was an independent significant risk factor of all-cause mortality, and ALT showed a tendency to increase. Overall, these findings indicate that AST and ALT may be useful tools for predicting mortality.

Study on the prediction of the stopping probabilities in case of train fire in tunnel by Monte Carlo simulation method (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션에 의한 화재열차의 터널 내 정차확률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Ji-Oh;Kim, Jong-Yoon;Kim, Hyo-Gyu
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.11-22
    • /
    • 2018
  • The safety of tunnels is quantified by quantitative risk assessment when planning the disaster prevention facilities of railway tunnels, and it is decided whether they are appropriate. The purpose of this study is to estimate the probability of the train stopping in the tunnels at train fire, which has a significant effect on the results of quantitative risk assessment for tunnel fires. For this purpose, a model was developed to calculate the coasting distance of the train considering the coefficient of train running resistance. The probability of stopping in case of train fire in the tunnel is predicted by the Monte Carlo simulation method with the coasting distance and the emergency braking distance as parameters of the tunnel lengths and slopes, train initial driving speeds. The kinetic equations for predicting the coasting distance were analyzed by reflecting the coefficient train running resistance of KTX II. In the case of KTX II trains, the coasting distance is reduced as the slope increases in a tunnel with an upward slope, but it is possible to continue driving without stopping in a slope downward. The probability of the train stopping in the case of train fire in tunnel decreases as the train speed increases and the slope of the tunnel decreases. If human error is not taken into account, the probability that a high-speed train traveling at a speed of 250 km/h or above will stop in a tunnel due to a fire is 0% when the slope of the tunnel is 0.5% or less, and the probability of stopping increases rapidly as the tunnel slope increases and the tunnel length increases.

Estimation of Aging Properties for Plastic Bonded Explosives Using AKTS Thermokinetic Software (AKTS Software를 이용한 주조형 복합화약의 노화 특성 예측)

  • Kwon, Kuktae;Lee, Sojung;Kim, Seunghee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
    • /
    • v.22 no.1
    • /
    • pp.66-71
    • /
    • 2018
  • The evaluation of the shelf-life of energetic materials is important. However, there are several difficulties associated with the evaluation. First, aging experiments require a considerable amount of time. Second, treating highly energetic materials is dangerous. For these reasons, many evaluation methods have been developed. Because most energetic materials decompose with the evolution of heat, it is important to analyze the thermal properties of energetic materials in order to understand decomposition and aging properties. In this paper, we describe the estimation of thermal aging properties and develop a kinetic model from spot data set of mechanical properties and estimate aging properties for mechanical results.