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A Study on Intelligent Value Chain Network System based on Firms' Information (기업정보 기반 지능형 밸류체인 네트워크 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Kim, Kang-Hoe;Moon, Young-Su;Lee, Ho-Shin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.67-88
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    • 2018
  • Until recently, as we recognize the significance of sustainable growth and competitiveness of small-and-medium sized enterprises (SMEs), governmental support for tangible resources such as R&D, manpower, funds, etc. has been mainly provided. However, it is also true that the inefficiency of support systems such as underestimated or redundant support has been raised because there exist conflicting policies in terms of appropriateness, effectiveness and efficiency of business support. From the perspective of the government or a company, we believe that due to limited resources of SMEs technology development and capacity enhancement through collaboration with external sources is the basis for creating competitive advantage for companies, and also emphasize value creation activities for it. This is why value chain network analysis is necessary in order to analyze inter-company deal relationships from a series of value chains and visualize results through establishing knowledge ecosystems at the corporate level. There exist Technology Opportunity Discovery (TOD) system that provides information on relevant products or technology status of companies with patents through retrievals over patent, product, or company name, CRETOP and KISLINE which both allow to view company (financial) information and credit information, but there exists no online system that provides a list of similar (competitive) companies based on the analysis of value chain network or information on potential clients or demanders that can have business deals in future. Therefore, we focus on the "Value Chain Network System (VCNS)", a support partner for planning the corporate business strategy developed and managed by KISTI, and investigate the types of embedded network-based analysis modules, databases (D/Bs) to support them, and how to utilize the system efficiently. Further we explore the function of network visualization in intelligent value chain analysis system which becomes the core information to understand industrial structure ystem and to develop a company's new product development. In order for a company to have the competitive superiority over other companies, it is necessary to identify who are the competitors with patents or products currently being produced, and searching for similar companies or competitors by each type of industry is the key to securing competitiveness in the commercialization of the target company. In addition, transaction information, which becomes business activity between companies, plays an important role in providing information regarding potential customers when both parties enter similar fields together. Identifying a competitor at the enterprise or industry level by using a network map based on such inter-company sales information can be implemented as a core module of value chain analysis. The Value Chain Network System (VCNS) combines the concepts of value chain and industrial structure analysis with corporate information simply collected to date, so that it can grasp not only the market competition situation of individual companies but also the value chain relationship of a specific industry. Especially, it can be useful as an information analysis tool at the corporate level such as identification of industry structure, identification of competitor trends, analysis of competitors, locating suppliers (sellers) and demanders (buyers), industry trends by item, finding promising items, finding new entrants, finding core companies and items by value chain, and recognizing the patents with corresponding companies, etc. In addition, based on the objectivity and reliability of the analysis results from transaction deals information and financial data, it is expected that value chain network system will be utilized for various purposes such as information support for business evaluation, R&D decision support and mid-term or short-term demand forecasting, in particular to more than 15,000 member companies in Korea, employees in R&D service sectors government-funded research institutes and public organizations. In order to strengthen business competitiveness of companies, technology, patent and market information have been provided so far mainly by government agencies and private research-and-development service companies. This service has been presented in frames of patent analysis (mainly for rating, quantitative analysis) or market analysis (for market prediction and demand forecasting based on market reports). However, there was a limitation to solving the lack of information, which is one of the difficulties that firms in Korea often face in the stage of commercialization. In particular, it is much more difficult to obtain information about competitors and potential candidates. In this study, the real-time value chain analysis and visualization service module based on the proposed network map and the data in hands is compared with the expected market share, estimated sales volume, contact information (which implies potential suppliers for raw material / parts, and potential demanders for complete products / modules). In future research, we intend to carry out the in-depth research for further investigating the indices of competitive factors through participation of research subjects and newly developing competitive indices for competitors or substitute items, and to additively promoting with data mining techniques and algorithms for improving the performance of VCNS.

Job importance, job performance, and job satisfaction in dietitians at geriatric hospitals or elderly healthcare facilities in Jeju (제주지역 요양 (병)원 영양사의 직무중요도, 직무수행도 및 직무만족도 분석)

  • Kang, Hye-Sook;Lee, Yunkyoung;Chae, In-Sook
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.189-200
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study analyzed job importance, job performance, and job satisfaction in 38 dietitians working at geriatric hospitals and elderly healthcare facilities in Jeju surveyed from September 15-24, 2014 with the aim of providing basic data for improving the quality of meals and nutrition management for elderly patients. Methods: Data were analyzed using descriptive analysis, ${\chi}^2$-test, t-test, ANOVA, and Pearson's correlation coefficients using the SPSS Win program (version 12.0). Results: Regarding job importance, the average score was 4.29 (out of 5), indicating that hygiene and safety management scored the highest at 4.77 (out of 5), and nutrition management scored the lowest at3.86. In terms of job performance of subjects, the average score was 2.87 (out of 5), indicating that cooking operation management scored the highest at 4.42 (out of 5). Regarding the Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA) of job importance and job performance, hygiene and safety management and cooking operation management scored high for importance and performance (B quadrant) menu management, human resource management, and nutrition management scored low for importance and performance (C quadrant) and purchasing management and financial management were included inD quadrant and A quadrant, respectively. For the level of job satisfaction of subjects, the average score was 3.37 (out of 5), indicating that relationships with colleagues scored the highest at 3.72, and improving professionalism scored the lowest at 2.95. Additionally, job importance and performance of subjects were positively correlated withjob satisfaction (r = 0.395, r = 0.386, both p < 0.05). Conclusion: In conclusion, scores for job importance and job performance of nutrition management were low, and job satisfaction of improving professionalism scored low. Therefore, continuous training and education programs of nutrition management should be provided to improve professionalism of dietitians at geriatric hospitals and elderly healthcare facilities.

Thermal Environments of Children's Parks during Heat Wave Period (폭염 시 어린이공원의 온열환경)

  • Ryu, Nam-Hyong;Lee, Chun-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.84-97
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    • 2016
  • This study was to investigate the user's thermal environments of the children's parks according to pavements and sunscreen types during periods of heat waves. The measurements were conducted at the sand pits, rubber chip pavement, shelters, and green shade ground of the two children's parks located in Jinju, Korea(Chilam: $N\;35^{\circ}11^{\prime}1.4{^{\prime}^{\prim}}$, $E\;128^{\circ}5^{\prime}31.7{^{\prime}^{\prime}}$, elevation 38m, Gaho: $N\;35^{\circ}09^{\prime}56.8{^{\prime}^{\prime}}$, $E\;128^{\circ}6^{\prime}41.1{^{\prime}^{\prime}}$, elevation 24m) over three days during 11-13, August, 2016. The highest ambient air temperatures at the Jinju Meteorological Office during the three measurement days were $35.9{\sim}36.8^{\circ}C$, which corresponded with the extremely hot weather. A series of experiments measured air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity, black globe temperature, and long-wave and short-wave radiation of the six directions 0.6 m above ground level. The wet bulb globe temperature(WBGT) and the universal thermal climatic index(UTCI) were used to evaluate thermal stress. Surface temperature images of the play equipment were also taken using infrared thermography. Surface temperatures of the play equipment and grounds were used to evaluate burn risk through contact with playground materials. The results showed the following. The maximum air temperatures averaged over 1-hour period for three days were $36.6{\sim}39.4^{\circ}C$. The sun shades reduced those temperatures by up to $2.8^{\circ}C$(green shade) and $1.0^{\circ}C/2.3^{\circ}C$(shelters). The minimum relative humidity values averaged over 1-hour period for three days were 44~50%. The sun shades increased those humidity values by up to 6%(green shade) and 4%/6%(shelters). The risk of heat related illness at the measurement sites of the children's parks were extreme and high in the daytime hours. The maximum WBGT values averaged over a 30-minute period for three days were $31.2{\sim}33.6^{\circ}C$. The sun shades reduced those WBGT values by up to $2.4^{\circ}C$(green shade) and $0.5^{\circ}C/2.1^{\circ}C$(shelters) compared to sandpits, but would not block the risk of heat related illness in the daytime hours. The category of heat stress at the measurement sites of the children's parks were extreme and very strong in the daytime hours. The maximum UTCI values averaged over a 30-minute period for three days were $39.9{\sim}48.1^{\circ}C$. The sun shades reduced those UTCI values by up to $7.8^{\circ}C$(green shade) and $4.1^{\circ}C/8.2^{\circ}C$(shelters) compared to sandpits, but could not lower heat stress category from extreme and very strong to strong and moderate in the daytime hours. According to the burn threshold criteria when skin was in contact with playground materials, the maximum surface temperature of the stainless steels($70.8^{\circ}C$) surpassed three seconds $60^{\circ}C$ threshold for uncoated steel, that of the rubber chip($76.5^{\circ}C$) surpassed five seconds $74^{\circ}C$ threshold for the plastic, that of the plastic slide($68.5^{\circ}C$) and seats($71.0^{\circ}C$) surpassed the one min $60^{\circ}C$ threshold for plastic, respectively. The surface temperatures of shaded play equipment were lower approximately $20^{\circ}C$ than those of play equipment exposed to the sun. Therefore, sun shades can block the risk of burns in daytime hours. Because of the extreme and high risk of heat related illness and extreme and high heat stress at the children's parks during periods of heat waves, parents and administrators must protect children from the use of playgrounds. The risk of burn when contact with play equipments and grounds at the children's parks during periods of heat waves, was very high. The sun shades are essential to block the risk of burn from play equipments and grounds at the children's parks during heat waves.

Effect of Smoking and Drinking Habits on the Nutrient Intakes and Health of Middle and High School Boy Students (남자 중.고생의 흡연과 음주습관이 영양소 섭취 및 건강상태에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Kyung-Ok;An, Chang-Hun;Hwang, Hyo-Jeong;Choi, Kyung-Soon;Chung, Keun-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.694-708
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    • 2009
  • The principal objective of this study was to determine the effects of smoking & drinking on the diet, nutrient intake, and overall health. A sample of 262 youths, aged 16 to 18 year-old, was randomly selected from Seoul and its vicinity. The subjects participated by answering survey questions including general questions, questions regarding health, smoking & drinking habits, dietary habits, nutrient intake, physical characteristics, and smoking cessation plans. The average height, weight, and BMI of the subjects were $173.5{\pm}6.8\;cm$, $64.8{\pm}11.8\;kg$, and $21.4{\pm}3.7\;kg/m^2$, respectively. Among the subjects, 88% appeared to be interested in health and 43.5% of youth asserted that the best way to keep healthy was to engage in regular exercise. Among 63 smokers, 52 students (82.5%) used alcoholic beverages while 11 students (17.5%) did not use alcoholic beverages, meaning that smoking was a causative factor in drinking. 55.6% of youth reported beginning to smoke in middle school, and 38.1% of them asserted that curiosity was the motive for smoking. The youth reported that the craving for smoking was highest when hungry, and the best place to smoke was the restroom. 20 students (69.0%) answered that the only way to quit smoking was just to stop. 12 students (44.4%) reported that the main reason for failures in smoking cessation attempts was a lack of intention or willpower. 87.1% of all subjects answered that they were inclined to quit smoking, and 56.7% of them would be interested in attending a smoking cessation program if they had the opportunity. Among the smoking and drinking group, 50% of drinkers began to drink in high school, and the reason for drinking given was peer pressure-40% of drinkers answered that they wished to quit drinking. 34.4% of students appeared to have breakfast everyday, but 16.4% of students answered that they had quit eating breakfast. 52.5% of all students reported that the principal reason for overeating was the presence of one's favorite food, and the smoking and drinking group reported overeating more frequently than other groups (p<0.05). 72.6% of all subjects reported eating interim meals $1{\sim}2$ times daily, 36.4% of smokers ate carbonated beverages, 38.5% ate ice cream as a interim meal, and 38.5% of the drinking and smoking groups ate fruits, 26.9% of them ate fried foods, and some of them ate fast foods as a interim meal. Among smokers, the ratio of eating fat-rich foods, and meats such as kalbi and samgyupsal more than two times per week was higher, and 54.3% of smokers ate ice cream, cookies, and carbonated beverages more than two times per week (p<0.05). The total nutrient intake of the $15{\sim}19$-year youth group was much higher than the standard value. The energy intake of the smoking group and the drinking and smoking group was significantly higher than that of the normal group (p<0.05). Intakes of phosphorus (p<0.05), cholesterol (p<0.05), and sodium (p<0.05) were the highest among all groups. Accordingly, it is recommended that practical education programs be implemented to teach young students to resist peer pressures to smoke and drink. Additionally, education that acknowledges the importance of nutrition is necessary to avoid preferential eating and overeating due to smoking and drinking.such education can also teach students to eat a balanced diet and improve their physical development.

A Proposal of a Keyword Extraction System for Detecting Social Issues (사회문제 해결형 기술수요 발굴을 위한 키워드 추출 시스템 제안)

  • Jeong, Dami;Kim, Jaeseok;Kim, Gi-Nam;Heo, Jong-Uk;On, Byung-Won;Kang, Mijung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2013
  • To discover significant social issues such as unemployment, economy crisis, social welfare etc. that are urgent issues to be solved in a modern society, in the existing approach, researchers usually collect opinions from professional experts and scholars through either online or offline surveys. However, such a method does not seem to be effective from time to time. As usual, due to the problem of expense, a large number of survey replies are seldom gathered. In some cases, it is also hard to find out professional persons dealing with specific social issues. Thus, the sample set is often small and may have some bias. Furthermore, regarding a social issue, several experts may make totally different conclusions because each expert has his subjective point of view and different background. In this case, it is considerably hard to figure out what current social issues are and which social issues are really important. To surmount the shortcomings of the current approach, in this paper, we develop a prototype system that semi-automatically detects social issue keywords representing social issues and problems from about 1.3 million news articles issued by about 10 major domestic presses in Korea from June 2009 until July 2012. Our proposed system consists of (1) collecting and extracting texts from the collected news articles, (2) identifying only news articles related to social issues, (3) analyzing the lexical items of Korean sentences, (4) finding a set of topics regarding social keywords over time based on probabilistic topic modeling, (5) matching relevant paragraphs to a given topic, and (6) visualizing social keywords for easy understanding. In particular, we propose a novel matching algorithm relying on generative models. The goal of our proposed matching algorithm is to best match paragraphs to each topic. Technically, using a topic model such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), we can obtain a set of topics, each of which has relevant terms and their probability values. In our problem, given a set of text documents (e.g., news articles), LDA shows a set of topic clusters, and then each topic cluster is labeled by human annotators, where each topic label stands for a social keyword. For example, suppose there is a topic (e.g., Topic1 = {(unemployment, 0.4), (layoff, 0.3), (business, 0.3)}) and then a human annotator labels "Unemployment Problem" on Topic1. In this example, it is non-trivial to understand what happened to the unemployment problem in our society. In other words, taking a look at only social keywords, we have no idea of the detailed events occurring in our society. To tackle this matter, we develop the matching algorithm that computes the probability value of a paragraph given a topic, relying on (i) topic terms and (ii) their probability values. For instance, given a set of text documents, we segment each text document to paragraphs. In the meantime, using LDA, we can extract a set of topics from the text documents. Based on our matching process, each paragraph is assigned to a topic, indicating that the paragraph best matches the topic. Finally, each topic has several best matched paragraphs. Furthermore, assuming there are a topic (e.g., Unemployment Problem) and the best matched paragraph (e.g., Up to 300 workers lost their jobs in XXX company at Seoul). In this case, we can grasp the detailed information of the social keyword such as "300 workers", "unemployment", "XXX company", and "Seoul". In addition, our system visualizes social keywords over time. Therefore, through our matching process and keyword visualization, most researchers will be able to detect social issues easily and quickly. Through this prototype system, we have detected various social issues appearing in our society and also showed effectiveness of our proposed methods according to our experimental results. Note that you can also use our proof-of-concept system in http://dslab.snu.ac.kr/demo.html.

Comparison of Effects of Normothermic and Hypothermic Cardiopulmonary Bypass on Cerebral Metabolism During Cardiac Surgery (체외순환 시 뇌 대사에 대한 정상 체온 체외순환과 저 체온 체외순환의 임상적 영향에 관한 비교연구)

  • 조광현;박경택;김경현;최석철;최국렬;황윤호
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.420-429
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    • 2002
  • Moderate hypothermic cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) has commonly been used in cardiac surgery. Several cardiac centers recently practice normothermic CPB in cardiac surgery, However, the clinical effect and safety of normothermic CPB on cerebral metabolism are not established and not fully understood. This study was prospectively designed to evaluate the clinical influence of normothermic CPB on brain metabolism and to compare it with that of moderate hypothermic CPB. Material and Method: Thirty-six adult patients scheduled for elective cardiac surgery were randomized to receive normothermic (nasopharyngeal temperature >34.5 $^{\circ}C$, n=18) or hypothermic (nasopharyngeal temperature 29~3$0^{\circ}C$, n=18) CPB with nonpulsatile pump. Middle cerebral artery blood flow velocity (VMCA), cerebral arteriovenous oxygen content difference (CAVO$_{2}$), cerebral oxygen extraction (COE), modified cerebral metabolic rate for oxygen (MCMRO$_{2}$), cerebral oxygen transport (TEO$_{2}$), cerebral venous desaturation (oxygen saturation in internal jugular bulb blood$\leq$50 %), and arterial and internal jugular bulb blood gas analysis were measured during six phases of the operation: Pre-CPB (control), CPB-10 min, Rewarm-1 (nasopharyngeal temperature 34 $^{\circ}C$ in the hypothermic group), Rewarm-2 (nasopharyngeal temperature 37 $^{\circ}C$ in the both groups), CPB-off and Post-CPB (skin closure after CPB-off). Postoperaitve neuropsychologic complications were observed in all patients. All variables were compared between the two groups. Result: VMCA at Rewarm-2 was higher in the hypothermic group (153.11$\pm$8.98%) than in the normothermic group (131.18$\pm$6.94%) (p<0.05). CAVO$_{2}$ (3.47$\pm$0.21 vs 4.28$\pm$0.29 mL/dL, p<0.05), COE (0.30$\pm$0.02 vs 0.39$\pm$0.02, p<0.05) and MCMRO$_{2}$ (4.71 $\pm$0.42 vs 5.36$\pm$0.45, p<0.05) at CPB-10 min were lower in the hypothermic group than in the normothermic group. The hypothermic group had higher TEO$_{2}$ than the normothermic group at CPB-10 (1,527.60$\pm$25.84 vs 1,368.74$\pm$20.03, p<0.05), Rewarm-2 (1,757.50$\pm$32.30 vs 1,478.60$\pm$27.41, p<0.05) and Post-CPB (1,734.37$\pm$41.45 vs 1,597.68$\pm$27.50, p<0.05). Internal jugular bulb oxygen tension (40.96$\pm$1.16 vs 34.79$\pm$2.18 mmHg, p<0.05), saturation (72.63$\pm$2.68 vs 64.76$\pm$2.49 %, p<0.05) and content (8.08$\pm$0.34 vs 6.78$\pm$0.43 mL/dL, p<0.05) at CPB-10 were higher in the hypothermic group than in the normothermic group. The hypothermic group had less incidence of postoperative neurologic complication (delirium) than the normothermic group (2 vs 4 patients, p<0.05). Lasting periods of postoperative delirium were shorter in the hypothermic group than in the normothermic group (60 vs 160 hrs, p<0.01). Conclusion: These results indicate that normothermic CPB should not be routinely applied in all cardiac surgery, especially advanced age or the clinical situations that require prolonged operative time. Moderate hypothermic CPB may have beneficial influences relatively on brain metabolism and postoperative neuropsychologic outcomes when compared with normothermic CPB.

Radioimmunoassay Reagent Survey and Evaluation (검사별 radioimmunoassay시약 조사 및 비교실험)

  • Kim, Ji-Na;An, Jae-seok;Jeon, Young-woo;Yoon, Sang-hyuk;Kim, Yoon-cheol
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.34-40
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    • 2021
  • Purpose If a new test is introduced or reagents are changed in the laboratory of a medical institution, the characteristics of the test should be analyzed according to the procedure and the assessment of reagents should be made. However, several necessary conditions must be met to perform all required comparative evaluations, first enough samples should be prepared for each test, and secondly, various reagents applicable to the comparative evaluations must be supplied. Even if enough comparative evaluations have been done, there is a limit to the fact that the data variation for the new reagent represents the overall patient data variation, The fact puts a burden on the laboratory to the change the reagent. Due to these various difficulties, reagent changes in the laboratory are limited. In order to introduce a competitive bid, the institute conducted a full investigation of Radioimmunoassay(RIA) reagents for each test and established the range of reagents available in the laboratory through comparative evaluations. We wanted to share this process. Materials and Methods There are 20 items of tests conducted in our laboratory except for consignment tests. For each test, RIA reagents that can be used were fully investigated with the reference to external quality control report. and the manuals for each reagent were obtained. Each reagent was checked for the manual to check the test method, Incubation time, sample volume needed for the test. After that, the primary selection was made according to whether it was available in this laboratory. The primary selected reagents were supplied with 2kits based on 100tests, and the data correlation test, sensitivity measurement, recovery rate measurement, and dilution test were conducted. The secondary selection was performed according to the results of the comparative evaluation. The reagents that passed the primary and secondary selections were submitted to the competitive bidding list. In the case of reagent is designated as a singular, we submitted a explanatory statement with the data obtained during the primary and secondary selection processes. Results Excluded from the primary selection was the case where TAT was expected to be delayed at the moment, and it was impossible to apply to our equipment due to the large volume of reagents used during the test. In the primary selection, there were five items which only one reagent was available.(squamous cell carcinoma Ag(SCC Ag), β-human chorionic gonadotropin(β-HCG), vitamin B12, folate, free testosterone), two reagents were available(CA19-9, CA125, CA72-4, ferritin, thyroglobulin antibody(TG Ab), microsomal antibody(Mic Ab), thyroid stimulating hormone-receptor-antibody(TSH-R-Ab), calcitonin), three reagents were available (triiodothyronine(T3), Tree T3, Free T4, TSH, intact parathyroid hormone(intact PTH)) and four reagents were available are carcinoembryonic antigen(CEA), TG. In the secondary selection, there were eight items which only one reagent was available.(ferritin, TG, CA19-9, SCC, β-HCG, vitaminB12, folate, free testosterone), two reagents were available(TG Ab, Mic Ab, TSH-R-Ab, CA125, CA72-4, intact PTH, calcitonin), three reagents were available(T3, Tree T3, Free T4, TSH, CEA). Reasons excluded from the secondary selection were the lack of reagent supply for comparative evaluations, the problems with data reproducibility, and the inability to accept data variations. The most problematic part of comparative evaluations was sample collection. It didn't matter if the number of samples requested was large and the capacity needed for the test was small. It was difficult to collect various concentration samples in the case of a small number of tests(100 cases per month or less), and it was difficult to conduct a recovery rate test in the case of a relatively large volume of samples required for a single test(more than 100 uL). In addition, the lack of dilution solution or standard zero material for sensitivity measurement or dilution tests was one of the problems. Conclusion Comparative evaluation for changing test reagents require appropriate preparation time to collect diverse and sufficient samples. In addition, setting the total sample volume and reagent volume range required for comparative evaluations, depending on the sample volume and reagent volume required for one test, will reduce the burden of sample collection and planning for each comparative evaluation.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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