• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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• 2003.06a
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• pp.121-126
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• 2003

본 논문은 시뮬레이터 각 계통 모델을 개발하고, 개발된 각 모델링 실행파일을 실시간으로 실행하며, 각 계통 모델의 건전성 시험을 용이하게 수행하기 위해 개발중인 시뮬레이션 환경을 소개하는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 개발중인 시뮬레이션 환경은 울진 표준형원전 시뮬레이터의 전 계통을 모델로 하고 있으며, 현재 각 계통 변수 데이터베이스 제어프로그램, 멈춤/실행 (Freeze/Run), 운전상태의 저장 (Snapshot), 임의의 변수에 대한 동적인 변수값 도시 (Display), 각 계통 실행파일들의 실시간 제어, 3차원 실시간 형상화 툴 등 여러 기능이 있으며, 영광1호기 최적운전분석기 등의 시스템에 이미 활용중이다. 본 시스템의 구축으로 모든 시뮬레이션 모델 및 각종 코드의 실시간 실행/빠른실행/느린실행 등의 개별 운전모드 시간조정도 가능해져 시뮬레이터 모델 이외에도 기존의 사용 프로그램의 통합등 다양한 응용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.127-134
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• 2008

Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.