• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.1419-1429
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• 2010

Industry structure and environment of the domestic bank have been changed by an influx of large foreign-banks and advanced financial products when the currency crisis erupted in Korea. In a competitive environment, accurate forecasts of changes and tendencies are essential for the survival and development. Forecast of whether to approve loan applications for customer or not is an important matter because that is related to profit generation and risk management on the bank. Therefore, this paper proposes the method to improve forecast accuracy of loan underwriting. Processes in experiments are as follows. First, we select the predictor variables which affect significantly to the result of loan underwriting by correlation analysis and feature selection technique, and then cluster the customers by the 2-Step clustering technique based on selected variables. Second, we find the most accurate forecasting model for each clustering by applying LR, NN and SVM. Finally, we compare the forecasting accuracy of the proposed method with the forecasting accuracy of existing application way.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.117-133
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• 2007

This paper evaluates the efficiency of monetary policy in Korea within the framework of interest rate feedback rules. For this, a small open macroeconomic model is constructed in a similar fashion to Ball (1999). The model is shown to capture key features of the Korean economy well. Using this estimated model, optimal instrument rules are derived for a set of different monetary policy objectives. Empirical results find that the actual monetary policy in the class of instrument rules was not very effective in stabilizing the output gap relative to inflation. However, seemingly successful inflation stabilization observed in the data are not consistent with the policy rules as the reaction of the interest rate to inflation is very low. It also appears that the central bank did not react right to movements in the real exchange rate. This paper offers some suggestions for the conduct of monetary policy in Korea.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.43-71
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• 2020

This paper aims to derive macroeconomic implications by analyzing the business cycle characteristics of the youth unemployment. The results of empirical analysis seem to show that youth unemployment appears to be relatively less correlated with business cycle compared to other age groups, and thus it is difficult to explain the recent steady increase in the potential labor force as a result of the business cycle fluctuation alone. Moreover, the alternative unemployment measures of the youth group showing upward trend were estimated to be co-integrated with output measures. This co-integrated trend increase suggests that unlike other age groups, youth may be influenced by structural factors inherent in Korea's economic growth path. The fact that the wage difference based on firm size has widened steadily since the Asian financial crisis and that the proportion of large companies that provide relatively high-quality jobs compared to major industrialized countries is significantly lower may be the evidence of the structural changes in Korean youth labor market. The results of above analysis may explain why the job search periods for youth has lengthened amid these structural changes.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.225-234
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• 2022

In this paper, we study the recent changes in the credit risk interconnectedness in Korea. Using the CDS spread data from November 2015 to August 2022, we estimate the network structure of sovereign and corporate credit risk. The results show that sovereign and corporate credit risks are interconnected significantly, particularly with respect to the banking sector where FX-related transactions are made. Since 2022 when the monetary policy has become contractionary, such credit risk interconnectedness seems to be strengthened because of greater common exposure.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.56-89
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• 2011

The sensitivity of investment with respect to cash flow is positive in imperfect financial markets. Using a switching regression model, cash flow sensitivity of investments in chaebol firms and large firms appears to be higher. Also, investments are found to be more responsive to cash flow during monetary contraction periods. These findings imply that monetary policy works through a credit channel. Furthermore, it appears that monetary policy exerts distributional effects as well as aggregate effects on that firms are unevenly affected by monetary changes.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.103-120
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• 2022

This paper studies the possibility of options as an instrument for central bank to intervene foreign exchange market. As opposed to spot transaction or forward transaction, which impacts spot exchange rate only once, currency options can continuously resist a directional speculative pressure on spot market due to the dynamic delta hedging of OTC currency options market maker. This research also analyzes whether and how central banks can use currency options to lower exchange rate volatility and maintain (implicit) target zones in foreign exchange markets. It argues that short position rather than long position in options will result in market makers dynamically hedging their long option exposure in a stabilizing manner, consistent with the first objective. Selling a "Strangle" allows a central bank to increase the credibility of its commitment to a target zone, and could have a lower expected cost than spot market interventions. However, this strategy also exposes the central bank to an unlimited loss potential. Therefore these kinds of intervention strategies must be used in the short run and temporarily.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.233-255
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• 2007

본 사례는 외환위기 및 대우 그룹 해체로 인해 존폐의 위기에 처했던 대우증권이 선도업체 위상을 탈환하기까지의 재건 과정에서 실행했던 마케팅 전략 및 영업활동을 분석하고 있다. 이를 통해 경영위기를 효과적으로 극복하고 새롭게 도약하기 위해 활용 가능한 마케팅 및 영업 전략의 일례를 소개하고자 한다. 끝으로 대우증권의 향후 마케팅 과제와 관련된 토의 주제가 제시된다. 국내 증권업계 선두주자였던 대우증권은 1999년 '대우 사태'로 인해 한때 업계 5위까지 추락하고 1조 2,000억원의 적자를 기록하였으며 신용등급은 투자부적격 단계인 CCC+까지 하락하는 등 위기를 맞이하게 되었다. 대우증권이 회생과 재도약을 위해 채택한 마케팅 전략은 '선택과 집중'이었다. 즉, 최대 수익원이자 경쟁력이 있는 사업 분야인 위탁매매(brokerage)에 역량을 우선 집중하여 안정적으로 수익 기반을 다진 뒤 이를 바탕으로 IB(Investment Bank)와 자산 관리(Wealth Management) 등 여타 분야에서의 역량도 점진적으로 강화하는 전략이다. 전략의 실행 방향은 높은 효율성 확보 및 자원의 확충을 통해 시장 지배력과 수익성을 창출하는 것이었다. 전략적 공감대, 오프라인 영업 강화, 현장 및 고객 중시를 위한 기업 자원의 확충 배치를 바탕으로 영업 프로세스, 영업 인프라, 영업 관리, 고객 서비스, 영업 문화의 혁신을 실행한 결과, 대우증권은 증권명가의 옛 명성과 위치를 성공적으로 탈환하게 되었다. 대우증권은 2004년 위탁매매 영업 부문에서 1위 위상을 되찾은 이래 전 사업 분야에서 성장을 지속하였다. 2006년 증권업종 시가총액 1위를 회복하는 등 각종 경영지표는 큰 폭으로 개선되었고, 신용등급은 AA-로 상향 조정되었다. 나아가 자본시장통합법 시대에 걸맞는 선도 글로벌 투자은행으로서 진화한다는 계획을 추진하고 있다.

• Sim-seong Yeon-gu
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.163-193
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• 2010

A Korean fairy tale, "I live on my fortune" is discussed and interpreted from the perspective of analytical psychology. Analytical psychology understands fairy tales are stories in which the workings of archetypes of unconsciousness are represented symbolically. Therefore they are intended to achieve psychic wholeness compensating collective consciousness. The fairy tale is found in almost every region of Korea. There are several parallel stories that share similar motifs, such as Samgongbonpoori, a mythological story and a tale on the king Mooh. The father in the story asked his three daughters whose fortune they lived on. The youngest was expelled by her father for she answered, "I live on my own fortune." Then she came into a humble cottage in the mountain marrying a poor charcoal maker and she found gold there. She became rich, made the charcoal maker a decent learned man and seeked for and took care of her parents who had become beggars. This fairy tale is interpreted as a story about individuation process of a woman who integrated 'inferior' aspects and unconscious animus through actively accepting the suffering from being expelled and commitment to the unconscious world, and also about how rigid collective psyche, under patriarchal system, changes toward wholeness through the workings of the unconscious.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.171-216
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• 2010

With the payment and settlement systems becoming more and more complex and interconnected, the issue of their interdependency rises as an important academic issue as well as a policy topic. This study examines causes, forms, and risk management of interdependencies of payment and settlement systems in Korea, and presents their current situation. By way of simulations using BOF-PSS2 developed by the Bank of Finland, we quantify the effects of an operational disruption on the payment and settlement systems so as to figure out the degree of interdependency. As a result, the secondary round effect reaches up to ￦13.6 trillion a day, which amounts to 7.8% of the daily settlement value. Furthermore, if we also consider the amount of direct operational disruption, the volume of operational disruption occupies 22.3% of total value of the daily settlement, evidencing that the interdependencies of the payment and settlement systems in Korea is enormously widespread. The secondary round effects are found to be more severe with security companies rather than with banks, and to be more depended upon when it is perceived rather than it actually happens. In case that we expand the liquidity to include cash holdings and deposits as assets, the secondary round effect dramatically decreases in all types of financial institutions while foreign banks account for more share of all the secondary round effects increases. Based on these results, we suggest various policy tasks and directions to improve the risk management of settlement systems: expansion of off-setting settlements, introduction of a new settlement system for securities transactions, rapid provision of liquidity to financial institutions, more effective monitoring on participant institutions, and intensified information sharing and cooperation among the systems.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.145-191
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• 2006

This paper studies implications of financial conglomeration for both financial risk of individual conglomerates and systemic risk potential in post-crisis Korea. Our analyses suggest that we cannot conclude that financial conglomerates are taking on higher risks relative to non-conglomerate independent institutions. We also find that larger financial institutions show a significantly higher profitability and lower variability in profitability operating on a superior efficient frontier. However, it turns out that the consolidation has raised systemic risk potential as direct and indirect interdependencies among large banking institutions have substantially increased. Furthermore, financial conglomerates have become more vulnerable to contagion risks from non-bank sectors and capital markets. In the face of the shifting risk structure, financial supervisory and regulatory systems must be upgraded toward a more risk-based, consolidated supervision. Prompt corrective action provision for financial conglomerates must be based upon fully consolidated group risks, and effective supervisory devices need to be introduced to avoid inadvertent extension of public safety net to cross-sectoral activities of financial conglomerates. It is also critical to strengthen internal control and risk management capacities at financial conglomerates, and to establish strong market discipline by improving information transparency and monitoring incentives in the financial market.