• Title/Summary/Keyword: 오차 특성

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The KMA Global Seasonal forecasting system (GloSea6) - Part 2: Climatological Mean Bias Characteristics (기상청 기후예측시스템(GloSea6) - Part 2: 기후모의 평균 오차 특성 분석)

  • Hyun, Yu-Kyung;Lee, Johan;Shin, Beomcheol;Choi, Yuna;Kim, Ji-Yeong;Lee, Sang-Min;Ji, Hee-Sook;Boo, Kyung-On;Lim, Somin;Kim, Hyeri;Ryu, Young;Park, Yeon-Hee;Park, Hyeong-Sik;Choo, Sung-Ho;Hyun, Seung-Hwon;Hwang, Seung-On
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.87-101
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, the performance improvement for the new KMA's Climate Prediction System (GloSea6), which has been built and tested in 2021, is presented by assessing the bias distribution of basic variables from 24 years of GloSea6 hindcasts. Along with the upgrade from GloSea5 to GloSea6, the performance of GloSea6 can be regarded as notable in many respects: improvements in (i) negative bias of geopotential height over the tropical and mid-latitude troposphere and over polar stratosphere in boreal summer; (ii) cold bias of tropospheric temperature; (iii) underestimation of mid-latitude jets; (iv) dry bias in the lower troposphere; (v) cold tongue bias in the equatorial SST and the warm bias of Southern Ocean, suggesting the potential of improvements to the major climate variability in GloSea6. The warm surface temperature in the northern hemisphere continent in summer is eliminated by using CDF-matched soil-moisture initials. However, the cold bias in high latitude snow-covered area in winter still needs to be improved in the future. The intensification of the westerly winds of the summer Asian monsoon and the weakening of the northwest Pacific high, which are considered to be major errors in the GloSea system, had not been significantly improved. However, both the use of increased number of ensembles and the initial conditions at the closest initial dates reveals possibility to improve these biases. It is also noted that the effect of ensemble expansion mainly contributes to the improvement of annual variability over high latitudes and polar regions.

Dynamic Equilibrium Position Prediction Model for the Confluence Area of Nakdong River (낙동강 합류부 삼각주의 동적 평형 위치 예측 모델: 감천-낙동강 합류점 중심 분석 연구)

  • Minsik Kim;Haein Shin;Wook-Hyun Nahm;Wonsuck Kim
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.435-445
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    • 2023
  • A delta is a depositional landform that is formed when sediment transported by a river is deposited in a relatively low-energy environment, such as a lake, sea, or a main channel. Among these, a delta formed at the confluence of rivers has a great importance in river management and research because it has a significant impact on the hydraulic and sedimentological characteristics of the river. Recently, the equilibrium state of the confluence area has been disrupted by large-scale dredging and construction of levees in the Nakdong River. However, due to the natural recovery of the river, the confluence area is returning to its pre-dredging natural state through ongoing sedimentation. The time-series data show that the confluence delta has been steadily growing since the dredging, but once it reaches a certain size, it repeats growth and retreat, and the overall size does not change significantly. In this study, we developed a model to explain the sedimentation-erosion processes in the confluence area based on the assumption that the confluence delta reaches a dynamic equilibrium. The model is based on two fundamental principles: sedimentation due to supply from the tributary and erosion due to the main channel. The erosion coefficient that represents the Nakdong River confluence areas, was obtained using data from the tributaries of the Nakdong River. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using the developed model to understand how the confluence delta responds to changes in the sediment and water discharges of the tributary and the main channel, respectively. We then used annual average discharge of the Nakdong River's tributaries to predict the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas. Finally, we conducted a simulation experiment on the development of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta using recorded daily discharge. The results showed that even though it is a simple model, it accurately predicted the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas in the Nakdong River, including the areas where the delta had not formed, and those where the delta had already formed and predicted the trend of the response of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta. However, the actual retreat in the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta was not captured fully due to errors and limitations in the simplification process. The insights through this study provide basic information on the sediment supply of the Nakdong River through the confluence areas, which can be implemented as a basic model for river maintenance and management.

SHRIMP Zircon U-Pb Age and Geochemistry of Igneous Rocks in the Ssangyong and Yongchu Valleys and Mungyeong Saejae Geosites, Mungyeong Geopark (문경지질공원 쌍룡계곡, 용추계곡, 문경새재 지질명소 화성암류의 SHRIMP 저어콘 U-Pb 연령과 지구화학)

  • Wonseok Cheong;Yoonsup Kim;Giun Han;Taehwan Kim
    • Korean Journal of Mineralogy and Petrology
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.73-94
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    • 2023
  • We carried out the sensitive high resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) zircon U-Pb age dating and whole-rock geochemical analysis of granitoids and felsic porphyries in the Ssangyong Valley, Yongchu Valley, and Mungyeong Saejae geosites in the Mungyeong Geopark. The igneous rocks crop out in the western, northwestern and central parts of the Mungyeong city area, respectively, and intruded (meta)sedimentary successions of the Ogcheon Metamorphic Belt, Cambro-Ordovician Mungyeong Group and Jurrasic Daedong Group. The U-Pb isotopic compositions of zircon from two felsic porphyries and one granite samples in the Ssanyeong Valley yielded the Cretaceous intrusion ages of 93.9±3.3 Ma (tσ), 95.1±4.0 Ma (tσ) and 94.4±2.0 Ma (tσ), respectively. On the other hand, a felsic dike sample and a granite in the Yongchu Valley and a porphyritic granite in the Mungyeong Saejae had intrusion ages of 90.2±2.0 Ma (tσ), 91.0±3.0 Ma (tσ) and 88.6±1.5 Ma (tσ), respectively. Based on the average standard error calculated in combination with results of previous studies in this area (Lee et al., 2010; Yi et al., 2014; Aum et al., 2019), the geochronological results show that spatial variation in intrusion age of ~5 Myr between the Ssangyong (94.5±0.2 Ma) and Yongchu Valleys (89.7±0.4 Ma) is apparent. The geochemical compositions of major and trace elements in the samples showed an affinity of typical post-orogenic granite, indicating their petrogenesis during the late stage of Early Cretaceous magmatic activity possibly in association with subduction events of the Izanagi Plate.

K-DEV: A Borehole Deviation Logging Probe Applicable to Steel-cased Holes (철재 케이싱이 설치된 시추공에서도 적용가능한 공곡검층기 K-DEV)

  • Yoonho, Song;Yeonguk, Jo;Seungdo, Kim;Tae Jong, Lee;Myungsun, Kim;In-Hwa, Park;Heuisoon, Lee
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2022
  • We designed a borehole deviation survey tool applicable for steel-cased holes, K-DEV, and developed a prototype for a depth of 500 m aiming to development of own equipment required to secure deep subsurface characterization technologies. K-DEV is equipped with sensors that provide digital output with verified high performance; moreover, it is also compatible with logging winch systems used in Korea. The K-DEV prototype has a nonmagnetic stainless steel housing with an outer diameter of 48.3 mm, which has been tested in the laboratory for water resistance up to 20 MPa and for durability by running into a 1-km deep borehole. We confirmed the operational stability and data repeatability of the prototype by constantly logging up and down to the depth of 600 m. A high-precision micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) gyroscope was used for the K-DEV prototype as the gyro sensor, which is crucial for azimuth determination in cased holes. Additionally, we devised an accurate trajectory survey algorithm by employing Unscented Kalman filtering and data fusion for optimization. The borehole test with K-DEV and a commercial logging tool produced sufficiently similar results. Furthermore, the issue of error accumulation due to drift over time of the MEMS gyro was successfully overcome by compensating with stationary measurements for the same attitude at the wellhead before and after logging, as demonstrated by the nearly identical result to the open hole. We believe that the methodology of K-DEV development and operational stability, as well as the data reliability of the prototype, were confirmed through these test applications.

Background effect on the measurement of trace amount of uranium by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (열이온화 질량분석에 의한 극미량 우라늄 정량에 미치는 바탕값 영향)

  • Jeon, Young-Shin;Park, Yong-Joon;Joe, Kih-Soo;Han, Sun-Ho;Song, Kyu-Seok
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.487-494
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    • 2008
  • An experiment was performed for zone refined Re-filament and normal (nonzone refined) Re-filament to reduce the background effect on the measurement of low level uranium samples. From both filaments, the signals which seemed to come from a cluster of light alkali elements, $(^{39}K_6)^+$, $(^{39}K_5+^{41}K)^+$ and $PbO_2$ were identified as the isobaric effect of the uranium isotopes. The isobaric effect signal was completely disappeared by heating the filament about $2000^{\circ}C$ at < $10^{-7}$ torr of vacuum for more than 1.5 hour in zone refined Refilaments, while that from the normal Re-filaments was not disappeared completely and was still remained as 3 pg. of uranium as the impurities after the degassing treatment was performed for more than 5 hours at the same condition of zone refined filaments. A threshold condition eliminating impurities were proved to be at 5 A and 30 minutes of degassing time. The uranium content as an impurity in rhenium filament was checked with a filament degassing treatment using the U-233 spike by isotope dilution mass spectrometry. A 0.31 ng of U was detected in rhenium filament without degassing, while only 3 pg of U was detected with baking treatment at a current of 5.5 A for 1 hr. Using normal Re-filaments for the ultra trace of uranium sample analysis had something problem because uranium remains to be 3 pg on the filament even though degassed for long hours. If the 1 ng uranium were measured, 0.3% error occurred basically. It was also conformed that ionization filament current was recommended not to be increased over 5.5 A to reduce the background. Finally, the contents of uranium isotopes in uranium standard materials (KRISS standard material and NIST standard materials, U-005 and U-030) were measured and compared with certified values. The differences between them showed 0.04% for U-235, 2% for U-234 and 2% for U-236, respectively.

Comprehensive Review on the Implications of Extreme Weather Characteristics to Stormwater Nature-based Solutions (자연기반해법을 적용한 그린인프라 시설의 극한기후 영향 사례분석)

  • Miguel Enrico L. Robles;Franz Kevin F. Geronimo;Chiny C. Vispo;Haque Md Tashdedul;Minsu Jeon;Lee-Hyung Kim
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.353-365
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    • 2023
  • The effects of climate change on green infrastructure and environmental media remain uncertain and context-specific despite numerous climate projections globally. In this study, the extreme weather conditions in seven major cities in South Korea were characterized through statistical analysis of 20-year daily meteorological data extracted fro m the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Additionally, the impacts of extreme weather on Nature-based Solutions (NbS) were determined through a comprehensive review. The results of the statistical analysis and comprehensive review revealed the studied cities are potentially vulnerable to varying extreme weather conditions, depending on geographic location, surface imperviousness, and local weather patterns. Temperature extremes were seen as potential threats to the resilience of NbS in Seoul, as both the highest maximum and lowest minimum temperatures were observed in the mentioned city. Moreover, extreme values for precipitation and maximum wind speed were observed in cities from the southern part of South Korea, particularly Busan, Ulsan, and Jeju. It was also found that extremely low temperatures induce the most impact on the resilience of NbS and environmental media. Extremely cold conditions were identified to reduce the pollutant removal efficiency of biochar, sand, gravel, and woodchip, as well as the nutrient uptake capabilities of constructed wetlands (CWs). In response to the negative impacts of extreme weather on the effectiveness of NbS, several adaptation strategies, such as the addition of shading and insulation systems, were also identified in this study. The results of this study are seen as beneficial to improving the resilience of NbS in South Korea and other locations with similar climate characteristics.

Gridding of Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation Station (AMOS) Temperature Data Using Optimal Kriging with Lapse Rate Correction (기온감률 보정과 최적크리깅을 이용한 산악기상관측망 기온자료의 우리나라 500미터 격자화)

  • Youjeong Youn;Seoyeon Kim;Jonggu Kang;Yemin Jeong;Soyeon Choi;Yungyo Im;Youngmin Seo;Myoungsoo Won;Junghwa Chun;Kyungmin Kim;Keunchang Jang;Joongbin Lim;Yangwon Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_1
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    • pp.715-727
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    • 2023
  • To provide detailed and appropriate meteorological information in mountainous areas, the Korea Forest Service has established an Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation Station (AMOS) network in major mountainous regions since 2012, and 464 stations are currently operated. In this study, we proposed an optimal kriging technique with lapse rate correction to produce gridded temperature data suitable for Korean forests using AMOS point observations. First, the outliers of the AMOS temperature data were removed through statistical processing. Then, an optimized theoretical variogram, which best approximates the empirical variogram, was derived to perform the optimal kriging with lapse rate correction. A 500-meter resolution Kriging map for temperature was created to reflect the elevation variations in Korean mountainous terrain. A blind evaluation of the method using a spatially unbiased validation sample showed a correlation coefficient of 0.899 to 0.953 and an error of 0.933 to 1.230℃, indicating a slight accuracy improvement compared to regular kriging without lapse rate correction. However, the critical advantage of the proposed method is that it can appropriately represent the complex terrain of Korean forests, such as local variations in mountainous areas and coastal forests in Gangwon province and topographical differences in Jirisan and Naejangsan and their surrounding forests.

Retrieval of Hourly Aerosol Optical Depth Using Top-of-Atmosphere Reflectance from GOCI-II and Machine Learning over South Korea (GOCI-II 대기상한 반사도와 기계학습을 이용한 남한 지역 시간별 에어로졸 광학 두께 산출)

  • Seyoung Yang;Hyunyoung Choi;Jungho Im
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_3
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    • pp.933-948
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    • 2023
  • Atmospheric aerosols not only have adverse effects on human health but also exert direct and indirect impacts on the climate system. Consequently, it is imperative to comprehend the characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of aerosols. Numerous research endeavors have been undertaken to monitor aerosols, predominantly through the retrieval of aerosol optical depth (AOD) via satellite-based observations. Nonetheless, this approach primarily relies on a look-up table-based inversion algorithm, characterized by computationally intensive operations and associated uncertainties. In this study, a novel high-resolution AOD direct retrieval algorithm, leveraging machine learning, was developed using top-of-atmosphere reflectance data derived from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager-II (GOCI-II), in conjunction with their differences from the past 30-day minimum reflectance, and meteorological variables from numerical models. The Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) technique was harnessed, and the resultant estimates underwent rigorous validation encompassing random, temporal, and spatial N-fold cross-validation (CV) using ground-based observation data from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD. The three CV results consistently demonstrated robust performance, yielding R2=0.70-0.80, RMSE=0.08-0.09, and within the expected error (EE) of 75.2-85.1%. The Shapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP) analysis confirmed the substantial influence of reflectance-related variables on AOD estimation. A comprehensive examination of the spatiotemporal distribution of AOD in Seoul and Ulsan revealed that the developed LGBM model yielded results that are in close concordance with AERONET AOD over time, thereby confirming its suitability for AOD retrieval at high spatiotemporal resolution (i.e., hourly, 250 m). Furthermore, upon comparing data coverage, it was ascertained that the LGBM model enhanced data retrieval frequency by approximately 8.8% in comparison to the GOCI-II L2 AOD products, ameliorating issues associated with excessive masking over very illuminated surfaces that are often encountered in physics-based AOD retrieval processes.

Comparison between Uncertainties of Cultivar Parameter Estimates Obtained Using Error Calculation Methods for Forage Rice Cultivars (오차 계산 방식에 따른 사료용 벼 품종의 품종모수 추정치 불확도 비교)

  • Young Sang Joh;Shinwoo Hyun;Kwang Soo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.129-141
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    • 2023
  • Crop models have been used to predict yield under diverse environmental and cultivation conditions, which can be used to support decisions on the management of forage crop. Cultivar parameters are one of required inputs to crop models in order to represent genetic properties for a given forage cultivar. The objectives of this study were to compare calibration and ensemble approaches in order to minimize the uncertainty of crop yield estimates using the SIMPLE crop model. Cultivar parameters were calibrated using Log-likelihood (LL) and Generic Composite Similarity Measure (GCSM) as an objective function for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. In total, 20 sets of cultivar parameters were generated for each method. Two types of ensemble approach. First type of ensemble approach was the average of model outputs (Eem), using individual parameters. The second ensemble approach was model output (Epm) of cultivar parameter obtained by averaging given 20 sets of parameters. Comparison was done for each cultivar and for each error calculation methods. 'Jowoo' and 'Yeongwoo', which are forage rice cultivars used in Korea, were subject to the parameter calibration. Yield data were obtained from experiment fields at Suwon, Jeonju, Naju and I ksan. Data for 2013, 2014 and 2016 were used for parameter calibration. For validation, yield data reported from 2016 to 2018 at Suwon was used. Initial calibration indicated that genetic coefficients obtained by LL were distributed in a narrower range than coefficients obtained by GCSM. A two-sample t-test was performed to compare between different methods of ensemble approaches and no significant difference was found between them. Uncertainty of GCSM can be neutralized by adjusting the acceptance probability. The other ensemble method (Epm) indicates that the uncertainty can be reduced with less computation using ensemble approach.

The Effect of Retinal and Perceived Motion Trajectory of Visual Motion Stimulus on Estimated Speed of Motion (운동자극의 망막상 운동거리와 지각된 운동거리가 운동속도 추정에 미치는 영향)

  • Park Jong-Jin;Hyng-Chul O. Li;ShinWoo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.181-196
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    • 2023
  • Size, velocity, and time equivalence are mechanisms that allow us to perceive objects in three-dimensional space consistently, despite errors on the two-dimensional retinal image. These mechanisms work on common cues, suggesting that the perception of motion distance, motion speed, and motion time may share common processing. This can lead to the hypothesis that, despite the spatial nature of visual stimuli distorting temporal perception, the perception of motion speed and the perception of motion duration will tend to oppose each other, as observed for objects moving in the environment. To test this hypothesis, the present study measured perceived speed using Müller-Lyer illusion stimulus to determine the relationship between the time-perception consequences of motion stimuli observed in previous studies and the speed perception measured in the present study. Experiment 1 manipulated the perceived motion trajectory while controlling for the retinal motion trajectory, and Experiment 2 manipulated the retinal motion trajectory while controlling for the perceived motion trajectory. The result is that the speed of the inward stimulus, which is perceived to be shorter, is estimated to be higher than that of the outward stimulus, which is perceived to be longer than the actual distance traveled. Taken together with previous time perception findings, namely that time perception is expanded for outward stimuli and contracted for inward stimuli, this suggests that when the perceived trajectory of a stimulus manipulated by the Müller-Lyer illusion is controlled for, perceived speed decreases with increasing duration and increases with decreasing duration when the perceived distance of the stimulus is constant. This relationship suggests that the relationship between time and speed perceived by spatial cues corresponds to the properties of objects moving in the environment, i.e, an increase in time decreases speed and a decrease in time increases speed when distance remains the same.