• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 확률

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Regional Frequency Analysis for Rainfall Under Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 일강우량의 지역빈도해석)

  • Song, Chang Woo;Kim, Yon Soo;Kang, Na Rae;Lee, Dong Ryul;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.125-137
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    • 2013
  • Global warming and climate change have influence on abnormal weather pattern and the rainstorm has a localized and intensive tendency in Korea. IPCC(2007) also reported the rainstorm and typhoon will be more and more stronger due to temperature increase during the 21st century. Flood Estimation Handbook(Institute of Hydrology, 1999) published in United Kingdom, in the case that the data period is shorter than return period, recommends the regional frequency analysis rather than point frequency analysis. This study uses Regional Climate Model(RCM) of Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) for obtaining the rainfall and for performing the regional frequency analysis. We used the rainfall data from 58 stations managed by KMA and used L-moment algorithm suggested by Hosking and wallis(1993) for the regional frequency analysis considering the climate change. As the results, in most stations, the rainfall amounts in frequencies have an increasing tendency except for some stations. According to the A1B scenario, design rainfall is increased by 7~10% compared with the reference period(1970-2010).

Computation of Maximum Edible Time using Monitoring Data of Staphylococcus aureus in Kimbap and Food MicroModel (Food $MicroModel^\circledR$과 황색포도상구균의 모니터링 자료를 활용한 시중 유통 김밥의 최대섭취유효시간 산정)

  • 이효민;이근영;윤은경;김현정;강윤숙;이동하;박종석;이순호;우건조
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.49-54
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    • 2004
  • The prevention of infectious disease from contaminated foods is very important in public health. Quantitative microbial risk assessment has been used in advance countries to achieve the safety of public health against hazardous microbial causing contaminated foods. This study was conducted to estimate maximum edible time without producing enterotoxin from Staphylococcus aureus in Kimbap selling at different domestic store using Food MicroModel and monitoring data and to compute maximum edible time by temperature with 99th percentile safety probability based on only restaurant data. For estimating maximum edible time, model operation conditions like reaching time at 2 ${\times}$ 10$^{7}$ , which enterotoxin was known as producing point from S. aureus, temperature of 28∼3$0^{\circ}C$, pH 5.2, NaCl 0.22%, aw(water activity) 0.99, and intaking one serving size of 171g in Kimbap were considered. Estimated maximum edible times by regarding outdoor temperature in summer were 3.9∼4.6 hrs in restaurant, 6.7∼7.9 hrs in department store and 7.4∼8.7 hrs in convenient store. Based on restaurant data, estimated maximum edible times with 99th percentile safety probability by temperature were 1.9 hrs in 3$0^{\circ}C$ and 17.7 hrs in 15$^{\circ}C$.

An Efficient Load-Balancing Algorithm based on Bandwidth Reservation Scheme in Wireless Multimedia Networks (무선 멀티미디어 망에서 대역폭 예약을 이용한 효율적인 부하 균형 알고리즘)

  • 정영석;우매리;김종근
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.441-449
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    • 2002
  • For multimedia traffics to be supported successfully in wireless network environment, it is necessary to provide Qualify-of-Service(QoS) guarantees among mobile hosts(clients). In order to guarantee the QoS, we have to keep the call blocking probability below a target value during hand-off session. However, the QoS negotiated between the client and the network may not be guaranteed due to lack of available channels for traffic of a new cell, since on service mobile clients should be able to continue their sessions. In this paper, we propose an efficient load-balancing algorithm based on the adaptive bandwidth reservation scheme for enlarging available channels in a cell. Proposed algorithm predicts the direction of clients in a cell and adjusts the amount of the channel to be reserved according to the load status of the cell. This method is used to reserve a part of bandwidths of a cell for hand-off calls to its adjacent cells and this reserved bandwidth can be used for hand-off call prior to new connection requests. If the number of free channels is also under a low threshold value, our scheme use a load-balancing algorithm with an adaptive bandwidth reservation. In order to evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we measure metrics such as the blocking probability of new calls and dropping probability of hand-off calls, and compare with those of existing schemes.

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Change Detection of Land Cover Environment using Fuzzy Logic Operation : A Case Study of Anmyeon-do (퍼지논리연산을 이용한 토지피복환경 변화분석: 안면도 사례연구)

  • 장동호;지광훈;이현영
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.305-317
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the land cover environmental changes in the Anmyeon-do. Especially, it centers on the changes in the land cover environment through methods of GIS and remote sensing. The land cover environmental change areas were detected from remote sensing data, and geographic data sets related to land cover environment change were built as a spatial database in GIS. Fuzzy logic was applied for data representation and integration of thematic maps. In the natural, social, and economic environment variables, the altitude, population density, and the national land use planning showed higher fuzzy membership values, respectively. After integrating all thematic maps using fuzzy logic operation, it is possible to predict the change quantitatively. In the study area, a region where land cover change will be likely to occur is the one on a plain near the shoreline. In particular, the hills of less than 5% slope and less than 15m altitude, adjacent to the ocean, were quite vulnerable to the aggravation of coastal environment on account of current, large-scale development. In conclusions, it is expected that the generalized scheme used in this study is regarded as one of effective methodologies for land cover environmental change detection from geographic data.

Characteristics of Dust Explosion in Dioctyl Terephthalic Acid Manufacturing Process (디옥틸테레프탈산 제조공정에서 분진폭발 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chang Jin;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.57 no.6
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    • pp.790-803
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    • 2019
  • The dioctyl terephthalic acid (DOTP) process produces plastic plasticizers by esterification of terephthalic acid with powder in the form of octanol. In this study, the dust explosion characteristics of terephthalic acid directly injected into the manhole in the form of powder in the presence of flammable solvent or vapor in the reactor of this process were investigated. Dust particle size and particle size distribution dust characteristics were investigated, and pyrolysis characteristics of dust were investigated to estimate fire and explosion characteristics and ignition temperature. Also, the minimum ignition energy experiment was performed to evaluate the explosion sensitivity. As a result, the average particle size of terephthalic acid powder was $143.433{\mu}m$. From the thermal analysis carried out under these particle size and particle size distribution conditions, the ignition temperature of the dust was about $253^{\circ}C$. The lower explosive limit (LEL) of the terephthalic acid was determined to be $50g/m^3$. The minimum ignition energy (MIE) for explosion sensitivity is (10 < MIE < 300) mJ, and the estimated minimum ignition energy (Es) based on the ignition probability is 210 mJ. The maximum explosion pressure ($P_{max}$) and the maximum explosion pressure rise rate $({\frac{dP}{dt}})_{max}$ of terephthalic acid dust were 7.1 bar and 511 bar/s, respectively. The dust explosion index (Kst) was 139 mbar/s, corresponding to the dust explosion grade St 1.

Development of FCEV accident scenario and analysis study on dangerous distance in road tunnel (도로터널에서 수소차 사고시나리오 개발 및 위험거리에 대한 분석 연구)

  • Lee, Hu-Yeong;Ryu, Ji-Oh
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.659-677
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    • 2022
  • Hydrogen is emerging as a next-generation energy source and development and supply of FCEV (hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle) is expected to occur rapidly. Accordingly, measures to respond to hydrogen car accidents are required and researches on the safety of hydrogen cars are being actively conducted. In this study, In this study, we developed a hydrogen car accident scenarios suitable for domestic conditions for the safety evaluation of hydrogen car in road tunnels through analysis of existing experiments and research data and analyzed and presented the hazard distance according to the accident results of the hydrogen car accident scenarios. The accident results according to the hydrogen car accident scenario were classified into minor accidents, general fires, jet flames and explosions. The probability of occurrence of each accident results are predicted to be 93.06%, 1.83%, 2.25%, and 2.31%. In the case of applying the hydrogen tank specifications of FCEV developed in Korea, the hazard distance for explosion pressure (based on 16.5 kPa) is about 17.6 m, about 6 m for jet fire, up to 35 m for fireball in road tunnel with a standard cross section (72 m2).

Structurization in Community Composition and Diversity Pattern of Soil Seed Banks in Gwangneung Forest, South Korea (한국 광릉숲 매토종자에서 군집 종조성 및 다양성 양상의 구조화)

  • Kim, Han-Gyeol;Oh, Seung-Hwan;Cho, Yong-Chan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.110 no.4
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    • pp.577-589
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    • 2021
  • Soil seed bank community contributes to the long-term conservation of plant diversity and vegetation dynamics, and their decreasing diversity and density with soil depth provide critical perspectives (deterministic and stochastic) for understanding the community disassembly process. We analyzed changes in species composition and diversity and structuring patterns by soil layer (top and bottom), including surface vegetation, in Gwangneung Forest, a mature forest with a vegetation climate in the temperate central part of the Korean Peninsula. From two layers of soil collected with a vertical difference of 10 cm, 934 specimens of 27 families, 40 genera, 44 species, three varieties, and 47 taxa, germinated. Although species diversity and germination density decreased in most comparative characteristics, including growth type, there was no statistical significance due to large deviations. Within-group variability of species composition was similar in the upper and lower soils, as was the decline pattern in co-occurred species (ζ-diversity) and change in species retention probability. The structuring process of the community composition in the two soil layers was fitted with an exponential correlation rather than a power function, demonstrating the dominance of the stochastic process. The pattern in diversity and species turnover according to soil depth in Gwangneung Forest was discovered to be structured by stochastic random events, such as seed vertical movement rather than interaction with trait characteristics.

Factors Affecting Service Use Intention of Long-term Care among the Disabled: Focused on Age Differences of the Disabled (중고령 장애인의 장기요양서비스 이용의향 예측요인 연구: 중고령 장애인집단내 연령차이를 중심으로)

  • Moon, Yongpil
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.125-159
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors affecting service use intention of long-term care among the disabled. This study conducts a longitudinal study using the modified Andersen model by the disabled age groups of the 50-64 group and the 65 over group. This study examined random effects panel logit analysis for the 50-64 group and the 65 over group by age variations. The results have shown that there are different factors Influencing factors for each specific age group of the disabled(50-64, 65 over). The results were as follows: there are differences of factors between the 50-64 group and the 65 over group. This study found that predisposing factors of the service use intention of long-term care were significantly related to age, residential area, education status, existence of spouses. Enabling factors of the service use intention of long-term care were significantly related to long-term care service recognition, saving, personal salary income level, housing status. Need factors of the service use intention of long-term care were significantly related to chronic diseases, psychological health, IADL. So, there are a need for a policy considerations such as service for the mid-old age disabled by age groups. Finally, implications and future research directions were discussed based on the finding of the study.

Predictors of Intention to Work among People with Disabilities who Maintain Economic Inactivity (비경제활동 유지 장애인의 취업의사 예측변인 탐색)

  • An, Yeji;Ji, Eun
    • 재활복지
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.65-84
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    • 2017
  • This study identified predictors of intention to work among people with disabilities who maintain economic inactivity for two successive years by analyzing a total of 2,255 Participants in the 2014 data of the Panel Survey of Employment for the Disabled (PSED) with through $X^2$, t test, logistic regression. To explore factors affecting intention to work among people with disabilities who maintain economic inactivity, this study hypothesized the effectiveness of variables of demographic, disability, human resources, psycho-social factors based on previous studies. The analysis showed that male, spouse-being, low income status out of demographic variables were related to high probability of having intention to work among people with disabilities who maintain economic inactivity. In case of disability variables, experiencing disability-related discrimination significantly predicted the probability of having intention to work. However, the relationship between disability-related discrimination experiences and high intention to work needs to be viewed as correlated rather than cause-and-effect.In addition, literacy related to computer use/English proficiency/interpersonal and adaptation skills(human resources), experiences of vocational rehabilitation services (human resources), self-esteem (psycho-social) significantly predicted the probability of having intention to work among people with disabilities who maintained economic inactivity. Based on these results, support services for females with disabilities, effective rehabilitation programs of improving literacy related to computer use/English proficiency/interpersonal and adaptation skills and self-esteem, general expansion of vocational rehabilitation services for people with disabilities are suggested.

Flow-Induced Noise Prediction for Submarines (잠수함 형상의 유동소음 해석기법 연구)

  • Yeo, Sang-Jae;Hong, Suk-Yoon;Song, Jee-Hun;Kwon, Hyun-Wung;Seol, Hanshin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.24 no.7
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    • pp.930-938
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    • 2018
  • Underwater noise radiated from submarines is directly related to the probability of being detected by the sonar of an enemy vessel. Therefore, minimizing the noise of a submarine is essential for improving survival outcomes. For modern submarines, as the speed and size of a submarine increase and noise reduction technology is developed, interest in flow noise around the hull has been increasing. In this study, a noise analysis technique was developed to predict flow noise generated around a submarine shape considering the free surface effect. When a submarine is operated near a free surface, turbulence-induced noise due to the turbulence of the flow and bubble noise from breaking waves arise. First, to analyze the flow around a submarine, VOF-based incompressible two-phase flow analysis was performed to derive flow field data and the shape of the free surface around the submarine. Turbulence-induced noise was analyzed by applying permeable FW-H, which is an acoustic analogy technique. Bubble noise was derived through a noise model for breaking waves based on the turbulent kinetic energy distribution results obtained from the CFD results. The analysis method developed was verified by comparison with experimental results for a submarine model measured in a Large Cavitation Tunnel (LCT).