• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 확률

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Ultrasonographic Findings in Children with Vesicoureteral Reflux (방광요관역류를 가진 소아에서의 신초음파 소견)

  • Choi, Min-Jung;Park, Se-Jin;Shin, Jae-Il;Kim, Kee-Hyuck
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.32-37
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the renal ultrasonographic findings in children with vesicoureteral reflux (VUR). Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 83 patients who were diagnosed with VUR and underwent ultrasonography at Ilsan hospital between January 2000 and December 2010. Results: Among 166 renal units, 108 (65.0%) were found to have vesicoureteral reflux (VUR). Fifty-one (73.9%) had VUR in renal units with abnormal ultrasonography (USG), whereas 57 (58.7%) had VUR in renal units with normal USG. Abnormal USG findings were independent risk factors for VUR (Odds ratio, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.01-3.89; $P$=0.045). In renal units with VUR, the number of normal USG finding was 52.8%, and the abnormal findings were as follows; increased cortical echogenicity 16.7%, hydronephrosis 17.6%, megaureter or ureter dilatation 8.3%, hydronephrosis and ureter dilatation 1.9%, duplication of ureter 1.9%, and atrophic kidney 0.9%. The prevalence of VUR was relatively higher in renal units with hydronephrosis (23/19, 82.6%), ureter dilatation (9/9, 100%), duplication of ureter (2/3, 66.6%), and atrophic kidney (1/1, 100%). Conclusion: Our study indicates that VUR was associated with abnormal USG findings. When there are abnormal USG findings such as hydronephrosis, ureter dilatation, duplication of ureter, and atrophic kidney in children with UTI, VCUG is recommended to detect VUR after controlling UTI.

Numerical Analysis of Groundwater Flow through Fractured Rock Mass by Tunneling in a Mountainous Area (산악 지역 내 터널 굴착 시 단열 암반 내 지하수 유동 분석)

  • Kim, Hyoung-Soo;Lee, Ju-Hyun;Ahn, Ju-Hee;Ahn, Gyu-Cheon;Yoon, Woon-Sang
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.16 no.4 s.63
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    • pp.281-287
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    • 2006
  • Intake of groundwater by tunneling in a mountainous area mostly results from groundwater flow through fractured parts of total rock mass. For reasonable analysis of this phenomenon the representative joint groups 1, 2, and 3 have been selected by previous investigations, geological/geophysical field tests and boring works. Three dimensional fractures were generated by the FracMan and MAFIC which is a three dimensional finite element model has been used to analyse a groundwater flow through fractured media. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to reduce the uncertainty of this study. The numerical results showed that the average and deviation of amounts of groundwater intaked into tunnel per unit length were $5.40{\times}10^{-1}$ and $3.04{\times}10^{-1}m^3/min/km$. It is concluded that tunnel would be stable on impact of groundwater environment by tunneling because of the lower value than $2.00{\sim}3.00m^3/min/km$ as previous and present standard on the application of tunnel construction.

Screening-Level Ecological Risk Assessment for Beneficial Reuse as Soil of Dredged Sediment Contaminated with Heavy Metals (중금속 오염 준설토의 토양으로서의 유효활용을 위한 선별수준 생태위해도평가)

  • Kim, Moonkyung;Kim, Kibeum;Choi, Yongju;Nam, Kyoungphile
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.236-241
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    • 2016
  • This study conducted a screening-level ecological risk assessment for heavy metals in dredged sediment for recycling in terrestrial environment. Toxicological information of six heavy metals (i.e., Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Cr, and Ni) was collected from ECOTOX of US Environmental Protection Agency, and screened and qualified for the use in the screening-level ecological risk assessment. According to the number of terrestrial ecological receptors for which toxicological information is available, PNEC (Predicted No Effect Concentration) of each heavy metal was derived using either stochastic approach (for Cu, Zn, and Cd), or deterministic approach (for Pb, Cr, and Ni). Hazard quotients of the six heavy metals were derived for a field-collected dredged sediment using the PNEC derived and the PEC (Predicted Environmental Concentration) determined for the dredged sediment. The HQs of Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb and Ni were higher than unity indicating a possibility of ecological risk of the five heavy metals when the dredged sediment is applied in terrestrial environment. Accordingly, remediation processes or a higher-level ecological risk assessment would be needed for the recycling of the material.

Wild Boar (Sus scrofa corranus Heude ) Habitat Modeling Using GIS and Logistic Regression (GIS와 로지스틱 회귀분석을 이용한 멧돼지 서식지 모형 개발)

  • 서창완;박종화
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.85-99
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    • 2000
  • Accurate information on habitat distribution of protected fauna is essential for the habitat management of Korea, a country with very high development pressure. The objectives of this study were to develop a habitat suitability model of wild boar based on GIS and logistic regression, and to create habitat distribution map, and to prepare the basis for habitat management of our country s endangered and protected species. The modeling process of this restudyarch had following three steps. First, GIS database of environmental factors related to use and availability of wild boar habitat were built. Wild boar locations were collected by Radio-Telemetry and GPS. Second, environmental factors affecting the habitat use and availability of wild boars were identified through chi-square test. Third, habitat suitability model based on logistic regression were developed, and the validity of the model was tested. Finally , habitat assessment map was created by utilizing a rule-based approach. The results of the study were as folos. First , distinct difference in wild boar habitat use by season and habitat types were found, however, no difference in wild boar habiat use by season and habitat types were found , however, ho difference by sex and activity types were found. Second, it was found, through habitat availability analysis, that elevation , aspect , forest type, and forest age were significant natural environmental factors affecting wild boar hatibate selection, but the effects of slope, ridge/valley, water, and solar radiation could not be identified, Finally, the habitat at cutoff value of 0.5. The model validation showed that inside validation site had the classification accuracy of 73.07% for total habitat and 80.00% for cover habitat , and outside validation site had the classification accuracy of 75.00% for total habitat.

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Assessment of Soil Erosion and Sedimentation in Cheoncheon Basin Considering Hourly Rainfall (시강우를 고려한 천천유역의 토양침식 및 퇴적 평가)

  • Kim, Seongwon;Lee, Daeeop;Jung, Sungho;Lee, Giha
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2020
  • In recent years, the frequency of heavy rainfall associated with high rainfall intensity has been continuously increasing due to the effects of climate change; and thus also causes an increase in watershed soil erosion. The existing estimation techniques, used for the prediction of soil erosion in Korea have limitations in predicting the: average soil erosion in watersheds, and the soil erosion associated with abnormal short-term rainfall events. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the characteristics of torrential rainfall, and utilize physics-based model to accurately determine the soil erosion characteristics of a watershed. In this study, the rainfall kinetic energy equation, in the form of power function, is proposed by applying the probability density function, to analyze the rainfall particle distribution. The distributed rainfall-erosion model, which utilizes the proposed rainfall kinetic energy equation, was utilized in this study to determine the soil erosion associated with various typhoon events that occurred at Cheoncheon watershed. As a result, the model efficiency parameters of the model for NSE and RMSE are 0.036 and 4.995 ppm, respectively. Therefore, the suggested soil erosion model, coupled with the proposed rainfall-energy estimation, shows accurate results in predicting soil erosion in a watershed due to short-term rainfall events.

Performance Estimation of Receiving Data Parket of TT&C System on the Pass Time of LEO Satellite (저궤도 위성의 통과시간에서 관제 시스템의 수신 데이터 패킷 성능 예측)

  • 장대익;김대영
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.24 no.8A
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    • pp.1149-1155
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    • 1999
  • LEO(Low altitude Earth Orbit) Satellite systems have been utilized in the field of earth and scientific observation (cartography mission, ocean color monitoring, bioglogical coeanography, space environments observation by space physics sensor, and meteorological observation, atmospheric observation etc.), and the field of military (military communications and secret information, enemy reconnaissance etc.), and recently been developing in the field of mobile satellite commnication of GMPCS for commercial utilization. In Korea, KOMPSAT I satellite and ground system are been developing and planed to be lunched on October 1999 In this paper, the link budge of the TT&C system for LEO satellite is described and the relations between elevation angle and pass time of LEO satellite are calculated according to satellite moving. And the packet error rates of receiving data are derived three packet error rates(PER) of real-time(RT) mode, playback(PB) mode, and real-time and range tone(RT+RNG) mode are estimated according to pass time of satellite. The results of PER are the best at real-time and the worst at real-time mode and range mode at the all pass time of satellite. The average error free packet(EFP)s of real-time mode, playback mode, and real-time and range tone for the pass time of satellite are obtained as 99.999999%, 99.999912%, 99.995945% respectively. Therefore, transmission sequence of telemetry data are determined such as PER sequence according to pass time, namely, real-time, playback, and real-time and range mode.

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Impact Monitoring of Composite Structures using Fiber Bragg Grating Sensors (광섬유 브래그 격자 센서를 이용한 복합재 구조물의 충격 모니터링 기법 연구)

  • Jang, Byeong-Wook;Park, Sang-Oh;Lee, Yeon-Gwan;Kim, Chun-Gon;Park, Chan-Yik;Lee, Bong-Wan
    • Composites Research
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.24-30
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    • 2011
  • Low-velocity impact can cause various damages which are mostly hidden inside the laminates or occur in the opposite side. Thus, these damages cannot be easily detected by visual inspection or conventional NDT systems. And if they occurred between the scheduled NDT periods, the possibilities of extensive damages or structural failure can be higher. Due to these reasons, the built-in NDT systems such as real-time impact monitoring system are required in the near future. In this paper, we studied the impact monitoring system consist of impact location detection and damage assessment techniques for composite flat and stiffened panel. In order to acquire the impact-induced acoustic signals, four multiplexed FBG sensors and high-speed FBG interrogator were used. And for development of the impact and damage occurrence detections, the neural networks and wavelet transforms were adopted. Finally, these algorithms were embodied using MATLAB and LabVIEW software for the user-friendly interface.

Characteristics of Brightness Temperature from MTSAT-1R on Lightning Events and Prediction over South Korea (MTSAT-1R 휘도온도를 이용한 낙뢰발생 특성 분석 및 예측)

  • Eom, Hyo-Sik;Suh, Myoung-Seok;Lee, Yun-Jeong
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2009.03a
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    • pp.227-236
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    • 2009
  • This study investigates the characteristics of cloud top brightness temperature (CTBT) of WV and IR1 from MTSAT-1R when lightning strikes in South Korea. For temporal and spatial collocations, lightnings, occurred only within ${\pm}5$ minutes from the six minutes added official satellite observation time (e.g., not 0600 UTC but 0606 UTC, considering the real scan time over South Korea), were selected. And the CTBTs corresponding to lightning spots were determined using the nearest pixel within 5 km. The brightness temperature difference (BTD, defined as WV - IR1) between two channels is negatively large when no lightning occurrs, whereas it increases up to positive values (sometimes, +5 K) and the largest frequency distributes around 225 K and 205 K in lightning cases. The probablistic approach for lightning frequency forecast, presented by Machado et al. (2008) in Southern America, was applied over South Korea and new exponential equations, with high coefficients of determination around 0.95 to 0.99, were developed using two channels' BTDs when lightning strikes. Moreover, a case study on 10th June, 2006, the largest number of lightning occurred between 2002 and 2006, was made. The major finding is that lightning activity is closely related to the dramatic decreases in BT and the increases in BTD (esp., equal to or larger than 0 K). Lightning frequency increases exponentially when BTD increases up to 0 K. Therefore, lightning forecast skill will be improved when the integrated strategy (synoptic background and satellite-based CTBT and BTD) is applied. It is believed that this study contributes to the application of the Korean first geostationary satellite (COMS), scheduled to launch at the end of this year, to severe weather detections.

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Analysis and Modeling of Traffic at Ntopia Subscriber Network of Korea Telecom (KT의 Ntopia가입자 망 트래픽 분석 및 모델링)

  • 주성돈;이채우
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2004
  • As Internet technologies are mature, many new applications that are different characteristics are emerging. Recently we see wide use of P2P(Peer to Peer) applications of which traffic shows different statistical characteristics compared with traditional application such as web(HTTP) and FTP(File Transfer Protocol). In this paper, we measured subscriber network of KT(Korea Telecom) to analyze P2P traffic characteristics. We show flow characteristics of measured traffic. We also estimate Hurst parameter of P2P traffic and compare self-similarity with web traffic. Analysis results indicate that P2P traffic is much bustier than web traffic and makes both upstream traffic and downstream traffic be symmetric. To predict parameters related QoS such as packet loss and delays we model P2P traffic using two self-similar traffic models and predict both loss probability and mm delay then compare their accuracies. With simulation we show that the self-similar traffic models we derive predict the performance of P2P traffic accurately and thus when we design a network or evaluate its performance, we can use the P2P traffic model as reference input traffic.

Reliability Based Pile Bearing Capacity Evaluation (신뢰도에 근거한 말뚝의 지지력 평가)

  • Lee, In-Mo;Jo, Guk-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Hak
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.9-22
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    • 1995
  • The purpose of this study is to propose safety factors of pile bearing capacity based on the reliability analysis. Each prediction method involves various degrees of uncertainties. To account for these uncertainties in a systematic way, the ratios of the measured bearing capacity from pile load tests to the predicted bearing capacity are represented in the form of a probability density function. The safety factor for each design method is obtained so that the probability of pile foundation failure is less than 10-3. The Bayesian theorem is applied in a way that the distribution using static formulae is assumed to be the A-prior and the distribution using dynamic formulae or wave equation based methods is assumed to be the likelihood, and these two are combined to obtain the posterior which has the reduced uncertainty. The results of this study show that static formulae of the pile bearing capacity using the 5.p.7. N-value as well as dynamic formulae are highly unreliable and have to have the safety factor more than 7.4 : the wave equation analysis using PDA(Pile Driving Analyzer) system the most reliable with the safety factor close to 2.7. The safety factor could be reduced certain amount by adoption the Bayes methodology in pile design.

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