• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 중심의 모형

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A Study on Follow-up Survey Methodology to Verify the Effectiveness of (<인생나눔교실> 사업의 효과 검증을 위한 추적 조사 방법론 연구 - 2017~2018년도 영상추적조사를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Dong Eun
    • Korean Association of Arts Management
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    • no.53
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    • pp.207-247
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    • 2020
  • is a project for the senior generation with humanistic knowledge to become a mentor and communicate with them to present the wisdom and direction of life to the new generations of mentees based on various life experiences. has been expanding since 2015, starting with the pilot operation in 2014. In general, projects such as these are assessed to establish effectiveness indicators to verify effectiveness and to establish project management and development strategies. However, most of the evaluations have been conducted quantitatively and qualitatively based on the short-term duration of the project. Therefore, in the case of continuous projects such as , especially in the field of culture and arts where long-term effectiveness verification is required, the short-term evaluation is difficult to predict and judge the actual meaningful effects. In this regard, tried to examine the qualitative change of key participants in this project through the 2017 and 2018 image tracking survey. For this purpose, we adopted qualitative research methodology through interview video shooting, field shooting, and value coding as a research method suitable for the research subject. To analyze the results, first, the interview images were transcribed, keywords were extracted, value encoding works were matched with human psychological values, and the theoretical method was used to identify changes and to derive the meaning. In fact, despite the fact that the study conducted in this study was a follow-up survey, it remained a limitation that it analyzed the changed pattern in a rather short time of 2 years. However, this study systemized the specific methodology that researchers should conduct for follow-up and provided the flow of research at the present time when there is hardly a model for follow-up in the field of culture and arts education business in Korea as well as abroad. Significance can be derived from this point. In addition, it can be said that it has great significance in preparing the detailed system and case of comparative analysis methodology through value coding.

Analysis of promising countries for export using parametric and non-parametric methods based on ERGM: Focusing on the case of information communication and home appliance industries (ERGM 기반의 모수적 및 비모수적 방법을 활용한 수출 유망국가 분석: 정보통신 및 가전 산업 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Jinny;Yoo, Jae-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.175-196
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    • 2022
  • Information and communication and home appliance industries, which were one of South Korea's main industries, are gradually losing their export share as their export competitiveness is weakening. This study objectively analyzed export competitiveness and suggested export-promising countries in order to help South Korea's information communication and home appliance industries improve exports. In this study, network properties, centrality, and structural hole analysis were performed during network analysis to evaluate export competitiveness. In order to select promising export countries, we proposed a new variable that can take into account the characteristics of an already established International Trade Network (ITN), that is, the Global Value Chain (GVC), in addition to the existing economic factors. The conditional log-odds for individual links derived from the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) in the analysis of the cross-border trade network were assumed as a proxy variable that can indicate the export potential. In consideration of the possibility of ERGM linkage, a parametric approach and a non-parametric approach were used to recommend export-promising countries, respectively. In the parametric method, a regression analysis model was developed to predict the export value of the information and communication and home appliance industries in South Korea by additionally considering the link-specific characteristics of the network derived from the ERGM to the existing economic factors. Also, in the non-parametric approach, an abnormality detection algorithm based on the clustering method was used, and a promising export country was proposed as a method of finding outliers that deviate from two peers. According to the research results, the structural characteristic of the export network of the industry was a network with high transferability. Also, according to the centrality analysis result, South Korea's influence on exports was weak compared to its size, and the structural hole analysis result showed that export efficiency was weak. According to the model for recommending promising exporting countries proposed by this study, in parametric analysis, Iran, Ireland, North Macedonia, Angola, and Pakistan were promising exporting countries, and in nonparametric analysis, Qatar, Luxembourg, Ireland, North Macedonia and Pakistan were analyzed as promising exporting countries. There were differences in some countries in the two models. The results of this study revealed that the export competitiveness of South Korea's information and communication and home appliance industries in GVC was not high compared to the size of exports, and thus showed that exports could be further reduced. In addition, this study is meaningful in that it proposed a method to find promising export countries by considering GVC networks with other countries as a way to increase export competitiveness. This study showed that, from a policy point of view, the international trade network of the information communication and home appliance industries has an important mutual relationship, and although transferability is high, it may not be easily expanded to a three-party relationship. In addition, it was confirmed that South Korea's export competitiveness or status was lower than the export size ranking. This paper suggested that in order to improve the low out-degree centrality, it is necessary to increase exports to Italy or Poland, which had significantly higher in-degrees. In addition, we argued that in order to improve the centrality of out-closeness, it is necessary to increase exports to countries with particularly high in-closeness. In particular, it was analyzed that Morocco, UAE, Argentina, Russia, and Canada should pay attention as export countries. This study also provided practical implications for companies expecting to expand exports. The results of this study argue that companies expecting export expansion need to pay attention to countries with a relatively high potential for export expansion compared to the existing export volume by country. In particular, for companies that export daily necessities, countries that should pay attention to the population are presented, and for companies that export high-end or durable products, countries with high GDP, or purchasing power, relatively low exports are presented. Since the process and results of this study can be easily extended and applied to other industries, it is also expected to develop services that utilize the results of this study in the public sector.

Locational Analysis and Classification of the Eup-Settlements in the Joseon Dynasty Period from Feng-Shui's Point of View (조선시대 지방도시의 풍수적 입지분석과 경관유형- 경상도 71개 읍치를 대상으로 -)

  • Choi, Won-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.540-559
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyse the locations and to interpret the landscapes of the local towns in Joseon Dynasty from Feng-shui's point of view. As a result of analysing the locations of towns in Gyeongsang Province, the towns which have typical Feng-shui landscapes make up to 58% of the total. Historically, the local towns that were established in the early period of the Joseon Dynasty didn't reveal Feng-shui's landscape, but those that were established in the late period of the Joseon Dynasty revealed the Feng-shui's landscape clearly. In this article, I classify the local towns of the Gyeongsang Province into 3 types: 1. Non Feng-shui type These towns are located near the seashore. The main reason that these towns were located at the seashore was defense against an enemy. 2. Semi Feng-shui type. These towns don't have natural location but have a man-made landscape, based on the principles of Feng-shui. 3. Typical Feng-shui type. These towns were typically administrational towns which were located at the center of a local region.

Transmission Dose Estimation Algorithm for Tissue Deficit (조직 결손에 대한 투과선량 계산 알고리즘 보정)

  • Yun Hyong Geun;Chie Eui Kyu;Huh Soon Nyung;Lee Hyoung Koo;Woo Hong Gyun;Shin Kyo Chul;Ha Sung Whan
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.186-192
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Measurement of transmission dose is useful for in vivo dosimetry. In this study, previous algorithm for estimation of transmission dose was modified for use in cases with tissue deficit. Materials and Methods : The beam data was measured with flat solid phantom in various conditions of tissue deficit. New algorithm for correction of transmission dose for tissue deficit was developed by physical reasoning. The algorithm was tested in experimental settings with irregular contours mimicking breast cancer patients using multiple sheets of solid phantoms. Results : The correction algorithm for tissue deficit could accurately reflect the effect of tissue deficit with errors within ${\pm}1.0\%$ in most situations and within ${\pm}3.0\%$ in experimental settings with irregular contours mimicking breast cancer treatment set-up. Conclusion : Developed algorithm could accurately reflect the effect of tissue deficit and irregularly shaped body contour on transmission dosimetry.

A Exploratory Study on Multiple Trajectories of Life Satisfaction During Retirement Transition: Applied Latent Class Growth Analysis (은퇴 전후 생활만족도의 다중 변화궤적에 관한 탐색적 연구: 잠재집단성장모형을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Eun-Na
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.85-112
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to understand the developmental trajectories of life satisfaction among retirees and to examine what factors differentiate different trajectory classes. This study used three waves of longitudinal data from Korean Retirement and Income Study and data collected every two years(2005, 2007, and 2009). Subjects were respondents aged 50-69 who identified to be retired between wave 1 and wave 2. Finally, this study used 243 respondents for final data analysis. Life satisfaction was measured by seven items. The latent class growth model and multiple logistic regression model were used for data analysis. This study identified three distinct trajectory classes: high stable class(47.7%), high at the early stage but decreased class(42.8%), and low at the early stage and then decreased class(9.5%). This study founded that approximately 50% of the retirees experienced the decline of life satisfaction after retirement and about 10% of the sample was the most vulnerable group. This study analyzed what factors make different among the distinct trajectory groups. As a results, retirees who experienced the improvement in health change were more likely to be in 'high stable class' compared to 'hight at the early stage but decreased class'. In addition, retirees who were less educated, maintained the same health status rather than the improvement, worked as a temporary or a day laborer, and had less household income were more likely to belong to 'low at the early stage and then decreased class' relative to 'high stable class'. This study suggests that there are distinct three trajectories on life satisfaction among the retirees and finds out factors differentiating between trajectory groups. Based on these findings, the study discusses the implications for social work practice and further study.

Analysis of the Longitudinal Relationship between Recovery and Adaptation Factors According to Types of School Violence Exposure in Youth: Focusing on Resilience and Social Support (청소년의 학교폭력노출 유형에 따른 회복과 적응을 위한 요인 간의 종단적 관계 분석: 사회적지지와 회복탄력성을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dongil;lee, hye eun;Keum, ChangMin;Park, Altteuri;Oh, Jiwon
    • (The) Korean Journal of Educational Psychology
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.99-130
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the longitudinal relationship between resilience and social support of school violence exposure types including school bullying, victimization, and dual experience. The study used data obtained from the third year (2012) of the Seoul Education Longitudinal Study of 1,137 elementary school students in grade 6 who reported experiencing school violence. The results of the autoregressive cross-lagged model are as follows. First, as a result of measuring the self-regression coefficients of resilience and social support of the youth exposed to school violence at 3 time points (2012, 2014, and 2016), it was found for all types of violence that resilience and social support at the previous time point showed a signigicant positive effect on the same variable at the next time point. Second, in the case of the cross-lagged effects of resilience and social support, the effect of previous social support on resilience at the next time point was statistically significant for the victimization group, but not for the bullying or dual experience groups. Third, considering the opposite path from resilience to social support, resilience at the previous time point had a significant influence on the social support at the next time point for both the bullying and victimization groups. This result is new and can be complementary to the cross-sectional studies so far using a longitudinal view. The results of this study suggest that the bullying and victimized students who are relatively more resilient are less likely to perceive social support than those who are not resilient. Finally, we discuss the longitudinal relationship between resilience and social support, the limitations of this study, and implications for future research.

The Macroeconomic Impacts of Korean Elections and Their Future Consequences (선거(選擧)의 거시경제적(巨視經濟的) 충격(衝擊)과 파급효과(波及效果))

  • Shim, Sang-dal;Lee, Hang-yong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 1992
  • This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

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Present Status and Future Prospect of Satellite Image Uses in Water Resources Area (수자원분야의 위성영상 활용 현황과 전망)

  • Kim, Seongjoon;Lee, Yonggwan
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.105-123
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    • 2018
  • Currently, satellite images act as essential and important data in water resources, environment, and ecology as well as information of geographic information system. In this paper, we will investigate basic characteristics of satellite images, especially application examples in water resources. In recent years, researches on spatial and temporal characteristics of large-scale regions utilizing the advantages of satellite imagery have been actively conducted for fundamental hydrological components such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture and natural disasters such as drought, flood, and heavy snow. Furthermore, it is possible to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics such as vegetation characteristics, plant production, net primary production, turbidity of water bodies, chlorophyll concentration, and water quality by using various image information utilizing various sensor information of satellites. Korea is planning to launch a satellite for water resources and environment in the near future, so various researches are expected to be activated on this field.

Study on Lead-Lag Relationship between Individual Spot and Futures of Communication Service Industries: Focused on KT and SK Telecom (통신서비스 업종 개별주식 현물과 선물 간 선도-지연 효과: 한국통신과 SK텔레콤을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Joo Il
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 2015
  • We examine the information transmission between the KT Spot and the KT Futures Index, the SK Telecom Spot and the SK Telecom Futures Index, based on the returns data offered by the Korea Exchange. The data includes daily return data from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2014. Utilizing a dynamic analytical tool-the VAR model, Granger Causality test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition have been implemented. The results of the analysis are as follows. Firstly, results of Granger Causality test suggests the existence of mutual causality the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index precede and have explanatory power the KT Spot and the SK Telecom Spot However the results also identified a greater causality and explanatory power of the KT Spot and the SK Telecom Spot over the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index. Secondly, the results of impulse response function suggest that the KT Futures Index show immediate response to the KT Spot and are influenced by till time 4. From time 2, the impact gradually disappears. Also the SKT Futures Index show immediate response to the SKT Spot and are influenced by till time 4. From time 2, the impact gradually disappears. Lastly, the variance decomposition analysis shows that the changes of return of the KT Spot and SKT Spot are dependent on those of the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index. This implies that returns on the KT Spot and SKT Spot have a significant influence over returns on the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index. It contributes to the understanding of market price formation function through analysis of detached the KT Spot and the KT Futures Index, the SK Telecom Spot and the SK Telecom Futures Index.

Factors Affecting the Weight Control Intention of the Female Adolescent by Body Size - In Daegu Area - (청년기 여성의 체형에 따른 체중조절 행동의도에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석 - 대구지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Ryu, Ho-Kyung
    • The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.83-93
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    • 2005
  • This study was conducted to provide information about the behavioral intentions to diet in adolescent females. To explain the behavior intention to diet, a conceptual framework based on the ' Social Support, Control and the Stress Process Model ' and the ' Theory of Reasoned Actio ' was used. The survey was carried out by self-questionnaires with 463 female high school and college students in Daegu. Analysis of data was done by using mean, correlation and multiple regression analysis with the SAS computer program. Subjects were divided into 3 groups-underweight, normal weight, and overweight-according to their current body size. The most powerful influencing factor related to perceived stress -that is dissatisfaction with body image- was the current figure, regardless of current body size. The fatter the current body size, the higher the score for the behavioral intention to diet. In attitude toward the behavior of dieting, the fatter the current figure, the higher the attitude score, and the belief of behavioral outcome was the main decision variable. For the score of the subjective norm, the overweight group was significantly higher than other groups. The influencing factors for the behavioral intention to diet were perceived stress and attitude toward dieting behavior, especially beliefs of behavioral outcome.

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