• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 중심의 모형

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A financial projection model on defined benefit pension plan (우리나라 퇴직연금의 재정추계모형과 장기전망 - 확정급여형 가정 중심으로 -)

  • Han, Jeonglim;Lee, Hangsuck
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.131-153
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    • 2014
  • The Korean market of pension plans has recently increased and pension plans will be expected to play an important role in the retirement system as complement of the national pension system in the future. However, there are a few of research papers on actuarial projections of pension plans. This paper will discuss a long-term financial projection on defined pension plans using data based on the national pension workplace participants. Previous researches focused on company-based financial projection of pension plan. But, this paper concerns on total Korean pension participants and suggests a method to calculate future financial projection of total pension plans. Finally, this research will suggest several numerical results of normal costs, benefits, numbers of workers, etc.

Evaluation of Critical Patient Severity Classification System(CPSCS) for neurocritical patients in intensive unit (신경계중환자에게 적용한 중환자 중증도 분류도구 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Jeonh
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.5238-5246
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    • 2012
  • This study was done to identify the evaluation of CPSCS for neurocritical patients and provide effective nursing interventions for these patients. Data were collected from medical records of 203 neurocritical patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to the ICU of C University Hospital during the period from January 2008 to May 2009 and from October 2011 to December 2011. Collected data were analyzed through t-test, ANOVA test, Person's correlation analysis, trend analysis, stepwise multiple regression. The average CPSCS score was $112.09{\pm}18.91$ and there was a significant trendency for higher severity to lead to higher CPSCS's scores(survival: J-T:9.795, die: J-T:5.415, p=<.001). The scores of the respective areas follows measurement of vital sign($3.74{\pm}2.15$), monitoring($28.97{\pm}4.31$), activity daily living ($34.99{\pm}3.66$), feeding($.19{\pm}.98$), intravenous infusion ($18.20{\pm}8.27$), treatment/procedure ($16.93{\pm}4.90$), respiratory therapy($8.61{\pm}7.07$). By means of stepwise multiple regression analysis, the intravenous therapy & medication, respiratory therapy, activities of daily living, and monitoring area that contains the model showed a significant (F=2073.963, p<.001), and they explained 98.1% of CPSCS. These findings provide information that is relevant in designing interventions to enhance CPSCS among neurocritical patients in hospital.

Outbreak of Rice Panicle Blast in Southern Provinces of Korea in 2014 (우리나라 남부지방에서의 2014년 벼 이삭도열병 대발생)

  • Kang, Wee Soo;Seo, Myung-Chul;Hong, Seong Jun;Lee, Kyong Jae;Lee, Yong Hwan
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.196-204
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    • 2019
  • Rice panicle blast occurred severely in southern provinces of Korea in 2014. The proportion of panicle blast incidence area to cultivated area of rice were 11.0% and 14.6% in Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do, respectively. To identify the causal factors of the outbreak, we investigated weather conditions in August, amount of cultivated area of mainly grown cultivars, and nitrogen contents in plants with different disease incidences in 2014. 'Saenuri,' 'Ilmibyeo,' 'Unkwang,' 'Dongjin 1 ho,' 'Nampyeongbyeo,' and 'Hwangkeumnuri' were mainly grown cultivars. Monthly average of daily air temperature in August 2014 was 3.2℃ and 3.1℃ less than 2018 in Haenam and Miryang, respectively. Rainfall in August 2014 was 70.0% and 42.0% greater than 2018 in Haenam and Miryang, respectively. The numbers of blast warning days in August calculated nationwide using a forecast model for blast infection were higher in 2014 than in 2018, and they were in high level throughout the country in 2014. Nitrogen contents in plant samples from high-incidence plots were significantly higher than those from low-incidence plots. Consequently, excessive use of nitrogen fertilizers was the main factor for the disease outbreak at the level of specific farms, in addition to the collective cultivation of susceptible cultivar, low temperatures and frequent rainfalls in August.

모바일 컨텐츠 공급파트너와 서비스 제공업체의 관계에 대한 연구 -전략적 성과에 영향을 미치는 관계특성을 중심으로-

  • 송영욱
    • Proceedings of the Korean DIstribution Association Conference
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    • 2003.02a
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    • pp.169-200
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    • 2003
  • 소비자의 욕구변화와 정보기술의 발전으로 정보경제시대, 신경제시대가 도래함에 따라 가치사슬이 변화하고, 새로운 가치를 창출하는 신산업이 등장하고 있다. 인터넷의 확산과 더불어 선으로부터의 자유, 개인성, 즉시성이 가능한 모바일 비즈니스가 우리나라에서도 태동하고 있다. 모바일 비즈니스는 금융업체, 정보제공업체, 통신망 운용업체, 최종이용자간의 새로운 가치의 결합이 특징이며, 막 흐름이 만들어지고 발전되고 있는 상황이다. 이와 같이 다양한 이해관계자가개입하고 있어 협력이 특히 강조되고 또 요구되고 있다. 이러한 중요성에도 불구하고 이들간의 관계에 대한 연구가 미흡한 편이다. 따라서 본 연구는 모바일 비즈니스를 주도하고 있는 통신망 제공업체와 모바일 컨텐츠 공급 파트너간의 조직간 협력관계에 대한 실증 연구를 수행하였다. 관계마케팅, 거래비용, 자원기반관점, 네트워크 이론 등 기업간 관계를 기술, 설명, 예측하는 주요이론에서 논의되고 있는 개념을 바탕으로 본 연구는 컨텐츠 공급파트너의 전략적 성과에 영향을 주는 연구 모형을 제시한다. 최근 중요성이 더 강조되고 있는 항목은 신뢰와 결속임을 감안하여, 매개변수로써 전략적 성과에 영향을 주는 주요한 요소로 신뢰와 결속을 제시하고 있다. 컨텐츠 제공업체의 전략적 성과는 서비스제공업체에 대한 신뢰와 결속에 큰 영향을 받고있다는 점을 반영하고 있다. 한편 신뢰에 영향을 주는 독립변수로는 서비스 제공업체에 대한 평판, 서비스제공업체와 컨텐츠 제공 파트너간의 상호의사소통, 그리고 업무처리의 절차에 대한 공정성을 제시하고 있다 결속에 영향을 미치는 독립변수로는 동의된 목표, 업무정보교류, 거래특유자산의 3개의 변수를 선정하였다. 독립, 매개, 종속변수간의 9개의 연구 가설을 수립하였다. 국내의 주도적인 이동통신망소유업체에 모바일 컨텐츠를 공급하고 있는 170여개의 파트너를 대상으로 실증연구를 수행했다. 공변량 구조분석을 위주로 분석한 연구의 결과에 의하면 본 연구의 모델은 충분한 적합성을 보여주고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 가설의 상당수가 채택이 되었다. 그러나 모바일 비즈니스의 기업간관계의 실제측면을 나타내는 업무정보교류와 결속자의 관계의 유의하지 않게 나와 기각되었다. 기각에 대한 여러 가지의 해석이 가능하지만 측정의 신뢰성을 확보해야 하고 개념의 타당성을 더 엄격하게 준수할 필요성이 제기되었다. 본 연구는 조직이론에 근거한 변수를 채택하고 있으나 모바일 비즈니스의 생명주기특성상 태동기이기 때문에 기업간 관계를 연구하는 측면에서는 탐험적 연구성격이 강하다. 더 나아가 본 산업의 주된 연구가 질적이고 기업내부만을 연구했던 것에 비교하면 시초적이라고 할 수 있다. 또한 관계마케팅, CRM 등의 이론적 배경이 되고 있는 신뢰와 결속의 중요성이 재확인하는 결과도 의의라고 할 수 있다. 그리고 신뢰는 양사 간의 상호관계에서 조성될 수 있는 특성을 가진 반면, 결속은 계약관계 초기단계에서 성문화하고 규정화 할 수 있는 변수의 성격이 강하다고 할 수가 있다. 본 연구는 복잡한 기업간 관계를 지나치게 협력적 측면에서만 규명했기 때문에 많은 측면을 간과할 가능성이 있다. 또한 방법론적으로 일방향의 시각만을 고려했고, 횡단적 조사를 통하고 국내의 한 서비스제공업체와 관련이 있는 컨텐츠 공급파트너만의 시각을 검증했기 때문에 해석에서 유의할 필요가 있다. 또한 타당성확보 노력을 기하였지만 측정도구 면에서 엄격한 개발과정을 준수하지는 못했다. 향후에는 모바일 컨텐츠 파트너의 기업의 특성을 조사하여 관계성 변수와의 상호관련연구를 진행할 필요가 있다. 관계기간, 의존성, 거래처의 단/복수여부, 서비스 범주 등의 제반 변수를 고려하여 이러한 변수가 양사와의 관계성 변수에 어떤 영향이 있는가를 검증할 필요가 있다. 또한 신뢰, 결속 등 다차원의 개념에 대한 심도 깊은 연구와 최근 제기되고 있는 이론의 확대도 필요하다. 마지막으로 신뢰와 결속에 영향을 미치는 요소간의 개념적 분류, 차이의 검증, 영향력 등을 광범위하게 진행시킬 필요가 있다.

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A study on Determinant Factors of Preferred elderly Housing based on Location among Preliminary Elders (예비 고령자의 입지유형별 고령자 주택 선택요인 분석)

  • Kim, Chang-Gon;Won, You-Ho;Lee, Joo-Hyung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.562-575
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to draw a Housing development scheme of elderly housing, including the urban, suburban and resort type according to location type, which is based on a Demanding Characteristics of preliminary elderly for elderly housing. In addition, The comprehensive implication tells that the preliminary elderly who wants the urban elderly housing type have a more personal characteristics than other types. So it should be considered according to personal characteristics. Next, when we choose the suburban elderly housing type and predict the demand for housing development, it should not only considers factors such as the Unmarried children, Health status, Current housing size and Plans for economic activity in old age but also considers factors such as the Accessibility, Convenience, Investment and Environment characteristics of elderly housing preference. Next, when we choose the resort elderly housing type which based on the fact that a few detailed parameters of current housing characteristics exist, it should be based on the current housing characteristics of preliminary elderly. In addition, it should consider a pre-investigation for elderly housing preference in order to select the housing type. Because a comprehensive preference such as the comfort, convenience, safety, investment, environmental characteristics is considered as major determinants factors.

The Effects of City's Search Keyword Type on Facebook Page Fans and Inbound Tourists : Focusing on Seoul City (도시의 검색키워드 유형이 페이스북 페이지 팬 수 및 관광객 수에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 서울시를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jee-Hye;Lee, Hyo-Bok
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.10
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2017
  • This study investigate the effect of each type of search volume on the number of Facebook fans and the number of tourists. According to the hierarchy effect model, the effect of communication appears to be the sequentiality of cognition-attitude-behavior. Applying this theory, this study predicted that when consumers who have higher involvement and knowledge on specific cities through search behavior, they will be more active in information search through Facebook fan page subscription and will lead to direct tourism behavior. To verify the prediction, we examined the influences among search volume of Seoul shown in Google Trend, the number of fans of official facebook page named 'Seoul Korea', and the number of foreign tourists. As a result, the type of search keyword was divided into four categories: tourism attraction keyword, natural environment keyword, symbolic keyword, and accessibility keyword. The regression analysis showed that tourism attraction keyword and symbolic keyword have influence on Facebook fanpage 'Like'. In addition, facebook fanpage fan size have mediation effect between search volume and number of tourists. All in all, it would be useful to appeal to foreign tourists with a message that emphasizes tourism attraction and Korea-related contents.

Decision-Tree Model of Long-term Abstention from Smoking: Focused on Coping Styles (장기적 금연 지속기간 예측 모형: 스트레스 대처를 중심으로)

  • Suh, Kyung-Hyun;You, Jae-Min
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.73-90
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    • 2005
  • Objectives: Smokers who had failed to quit smoking were frequently reported that life stress mostly interrupted their abstention. Stress vulnerability model for smoking cessation has been considered, and most of contemporary smoking cessation programs help smokers develop coping strategies for stressful situations. This study aims to investigate the appropriate coping styles for stress of abstention from smoking. The result of investigating the relationship between abstention following smoking cessation program and coping styles would suggest useful information for those who want to stop smoking and health practitioners who help them. Methods: Participants were 69 smokers (62 males, 7 females) participated in a hospitalized smoking cessation program, whose mean age was 44.89 (SD=9.61). Participants took medical test and completed questionnaires and psychological tests including: Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence and Multidimensional Coping Scale. To identify participants' abstention, researchers followed them for 2 years. To identify whether abstained or not and encourage them to abstain, researchers called them on the telephone once a week for 3 months. After 3 months, they were contacted every other week till 6 months passed since they left smoking cessation program. And they were contacted once a month for other 18months. Researchers also contacted their family to identify their abstention. Data Mining Decision Tree was performed with 37 variables (13 variables for the coping styles and 24 smoking-related variables) by Answer Tree 3.0v Results: Forty four (63.8%) out of sixty nine for 2 weeks, 34 (49.3%) for 6 months, 25 (36.2%) abstained for 1 year, and 22 (31.9%) abstained for 2 years. Participants of this study abstained average of 286.77 days from smoking. Included variables of a Decision Tree model for this study were positive interpretation, emotional expression, self-criticism, restraint and emotional social support seeking. Decision Tree model showed that those (n=9) who did not interpret positively (<=7.5) and criticized themselves (>6.5) abstained 23 days only, while those (n=9) who interpreted positively (>7.5), expressed their emotion freely (>6.5), and sought social support actively (>11.5) abstained 730 days, till last day of the investigation. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that certain coping styles such as positive interpretation, emotional expression, self-criticism, restraint and emotional social support seeking were important factors for long-term abstention from smoking. These findings reiterate the role of stress for abstention from smoking and suggest a model of coping styles for successful abstention from smoking. Despite of limitation of this study, it might help smokers who want to stop smoking and health practitioners who help them.

The Development of Travel Demand Nowcasting Model Based on Travelers' Attention: Focusing on Web Search Traffic Information (여행자 관심 기반 스마트 여행 수요 예측 모형 개발: 웹검색 트래픽 정보를 중심으로)

  • Park, Do-Hyung
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.171-185
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    • 2017
  • Purpose Recently, there has been an increase in attempts to analyze social phenomena, consumption trends, and consumption behavior through a vast amount of customer data such as web search traffic information and social buzz information in various fields such as flu prediction and real estate price prediction. Internet portal service providers such as google and naver are disclosing web search traffic information of online users as services such as google trends and naver trends. Academic and industry are paying attention to research on information search behavior and utilization of online users based on the web search traffic information. Although there are many studies predicting social phenomena, consumption trends, political polls, etc. based on web search traffic information, it is hard to find the research to explain and predict tourism demand and establish tourism policy using it. In this study, we try to use web search traffic information to explain the tourism demand for major cities in Gangwon-do, the representative tourist area in Korea, and to develop a nowcasting model for the demand. Design/methodology/approach In the first step, the literature review on travel demand and web search traffic was conducted in parallel in two directions. In the second stage, we conducted a qualitative research to confirm the information retrieval behavior of the traveler. In the next step, we extracted the representative tourist cities of Gangwon-do and confirmed which keywords were used for the search. In the fourth step, we collected tourist demand data to be used as a dependent variable and collected web search traffic information of each keyword to be used as an independent variable. In the fifth step, we set up a time series benchmark model, and added the web search traffic information to this model to confirm whether the prediction model improved. In the last stage, we analyze the prediction models that are finally selected as optimal and confirm whether the influence of the keywords on the prediction of travel demand. Findings This study has developed a tourism demand forecasting model of Gangwon-do, a representative tourist destination in Korea, by expanding and applying web search traffic information to tourism demand forecasting. We compared the existing time series model with the benchmarking model and confirmed the superiority of the proposed model. In addition, this study also confirms that web search traffic information has a positive correlation with travel demand and precedes it by one or two months, thereby asserting its suitability as a prediction model. Furthermore, by deriving search keywords that have a significant effect on tourism demand forecast for each city, representative characteristics of each region can be selected.

A Study on Development of Assessment Model for Spatio-Temporal Changes in River Bed Using Numerical Models (수치모형을 이용한 하상변동 시공간 평가 기법 개발 연구)

  • Kim, Chul-Moon;Lee, Jeong-Ju;Choi, Su-Won;Ahn, Won-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.12
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    • pp.975-990
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    • 2011
  • In this study, to develop an assessment method for spatio-temporal riverbed changes, a 1-dimensional model (HEC-RAS) and a 2-dimensional model (CCHE2D) were built and applied. As for the analysis of a riverbed's long-term change in a real stream, three new assessment methods were developed, which are called the "Sediment section cumulative curve", "Sediment section moment", and "Sediment probability distribution function." These methods were used to assess the characteristics of riverbed changes using a consistent valuation standard and to understand changes in quantities intuitively. From the results of this study, sediment characteristics of cross sections can be detected effectively by applying the "Sediment section cumulative curve" method to determine whether there is any sedimentation or erosion in total emission. The amount of sedimentation or erosion occurring in the right or left banks, which divided by center column, could be presented as one criterion by applying the "Sediment section moment" method. This approach could be utilized as an indicator for sediment predictions. Spatio-temporal sediment variables can be presented quantitatively by determining the mean and uncertain boundaries through the "Sediment probability distribution function", and finally, the results can be illustrated for each cross section to provide intuitive recognition.

Relation between Highway Improvement and Induced Travel Demand, and Estimate the Demand Elasticity (A Seoul Metropolitan Area Case) (도로환경개선과 집합적 개념의 유발통행수요와의 관련성 규명 및 수요탄력성 추정(수도권을 중심으로))

  • Lee, Gyu-Jin;Choe, Gi-Ju;Sim, Sang-U;Kim, Sang-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.4 s.90
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2006
  • The purpose or this paper is to investigate the relationship between highway improvement and Induced Travel Demand(ITD) focusing on the Seoul metropolitan area data. In addition, authors tried to estimate basic unit of demand elasticity focusing on zone and trip purpose which can be applied for the ITD forecasting. The results are based on the 2002 Metropolitan Household Transportation Survey Data, where the demand elasticity (DE) is -0.582 in Seoul, -0.597 in Incheon and -0.559 in Gyounggi province, respectively. This study revealed part of the relationship between highway improvement and ITD for metropolitan region and provided the framework for yielding real estimated values by applying the concept of demand elasticity in terms of the relationship by using regional and long-term data. We expect that the basic unit of demand elasticity focusing on zone and trip purpose can be applied for the ITD forecasting to analyze the whole demand exactly The estimated DE's for age group and day of week can also be used for Proper transportation management and transport Policy making. Some limitations have also been discussed.