• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 중심의 모형

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Division of Homogeneous Road Sections for National Highway by Genetic Algorithms (유전자 알고리즘을 적용한 국도의 동질성 구간 분할)

  • Oh, Ju-Sam;Lim, Sung-Han;Cho, Yoon-Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.7 no.4 s.26
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2005
  • Traffic data such as traffic volume, speed, and vehicle Class are very important basic data for the plan and design of highway. Based on traffic data, the future service level of a specific highway and geometry of newly constructed or expended road is predicted and determined. The Ministry of Construction & Transportation has simultaneously surveyed coverage count and permanent count at highways since 1985. Traffic volume survey sections were determined at jointed nodes of highways and jointed nodes of highways and other roads such as freeway and local highway. Volume survey was performed at these sections. The premise to decide these sections is assumed that links between jointed nodes of main highways exhibit similar traffic characteristics. Recently, due to the change of highway geometries such as construction of detour road and installations of traffic facilities such as installation of media, traffic characteristics of the existing traffic volume survey sections was changed. To reflect these changes, traffic characteristics at homogeneous road sections was widely evaluated and analyzed. Using Genetic Algorithms, a model was developed for the evaluation of traffic characteristics at homogeneous road sections. Traffic volume survey sections were then determined through the application of the developed model for current traffic system.

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The Economic Effects of the Expanding Manufacture and Utilization of Solid Refuse Fuel (SRF) Facilities in Korea : An Input-output Analysis (SRF 제조·활용 시설 확대의 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Cho, Yongcheol;Park, Soyeon;Yoo, Seunghoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2016
  • The government is trying to expanding the manufacture and utilization of solid refuse fuel (SRF) facilities in order to mitigate greenhouse gases reducing and eco-friendly waste-to-energy recovery. In this regard, this study attempts to look into the economic effects of expanding the manufacture and utilization of SRF facilities by applying an inter-industry analysis using a 2014 input-output table. Specifically, by applying the demand-driven model presents the results for the production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect. In particular, this study attempted to redefine for the SRF. In addition, it was accessed by exogenous around the manufacture and utilization of SRF sector. The results show that production-inducing effect and value-added creation effect of expanding the manufacture and utilization of SRF facilities for the investment of 1.0 won are estimated to be 1.9993 and 0.6747, respectively. The employment-inducing effect of one billion of investment in the expanding the manufacture and utilization of SRF facilities is computed to be 11.1982 persons. This information can be utilized in predicting the economic effects of the manufacture and utilization of SRF.

Discovering Customer Service Cool Trends in e-Commerce: Using Social Network Analysis with NodeXL (e-커머스 기업의 고객서비스 쿨트랜드 발견: 사회네트워크분석 NodeXL 활용)

  • Lee, Chang-Gyun;Sung, Min-June;Lee, Yun-Bae
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.75-96
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    • 2011
  • This research uses coolhunting to predict the future trend of e-Commerce industry. Coolhunting is a method to take Cool Trends which are the future trend through social network analysis for discovering the trendsetter and its collective intelligence. Coolhunting is generally carried out by social network analysis while this research uses NodeXL of social network analysis tools. We designed industrial network research model for relation among e-Commerce corporation, product, the types of customer service and customer service employee to discover the Cool Trends of e-Commerce industry. According to the result of this research, e-Commerce industrial network was being changed from chaos to collective intelligence form. As a analysis result for network influences, we found that Cool Trends of e-Commerce industry invigorate social commerce industry through the collective intelligence focusing intelligence VIP, Excellence, grade of Administrating for women customers(trendsetter) and it promotes semantic consumption from customers and purchasing power will be concentrated on cosmetic, beauty, perfume product categories in social commerce. We propose the strategic direction for e-Commerce corporation and hope that domestic e-Commerce corporation continues to grow and high-quality services are provided for customers.

Sensitivity Analysis of the MUSIC Model Parameters (MUSIC모형의 매개변수에 관한 민감도 분석)

  • Im, Jang-Hyuk;Yeoun, Ji-Woong;Park, Sung-Sik;Song, Jai-Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.236-240
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    • 2007
  • 최근 집중호우에 의한 피해가 증가함에 따라 도시화에 따른 불투수 면적이 유출량 증가의 주요한 원인으로 지목되고 있으며 도시의 인구집중으로 인한 지하수의 난개발로 지하수 오염 및 고갈이 빠르게 진행되고 있다. 이에 도시의 지속적이고 건전한 물 관리를 위하여 우수유출저감시설이 고려되고 있으며, 정량적인 저감효과의 분석방법이 요구되고 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 호주에서 물관리 및 우수유출저감을 고려한 도시유역계획을 위해 이용되고 있는 모형에 대한 민감도 분석을 실시하였으며, 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 MUSIC 향후 국내 우수유출저감시설에 관한 수문 해석시 MUSIC의 적용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다. MUSIC의 매개변수 중 불투수율과 토양특성이 매우 중요한 매개변수로 고려되고 있으므로, 본 연구에서는 투수지역의 최대저류깊이, Soil storage(mm), 강우초기 최대저류깊이의 포화정도 Initial storage(%), 지하수위에 도달할 수 있는 Field capacity(mm), 최대 침투율에 영향을 미치는 건조토양상태의 침투율을 정의하는 계수 a와 함수비 증가에 따른 최대 침투율 감소를 정의하는 지수 b 등의 매개변수에 대해 초기값을 중심으로 일정비율로 각 매개변수를 10단계로 구분하여 민감도 분석을 실시하였다. 주요 매개변수의 민감도 분석 결과로부터 MUSIC의 모의를 위해서는 불투수율의 민감도 변화 범위가 가장 넓고 첨두유출량과 총유출량 변화가 함께 일어나므로, 이를 가장 우선적으로 조정하고 이와 함께 토양특성을 반영하는 Soil storage와 Initial storage를 고려한다면 MUSIC을 이용하여 개발에 의한 유출변화와 다양한 우수침투시설 설치에 따른 저감효과를 합리적으로 예측할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 물 관리를 요구하게 되었다. 우리나라는 현실적으로 매년 홍수 피해가 발생하고 있지만, 다른 한편 인구밀도가 높고 1인당 가용 수자원이 상대적으로 적기 때문에 국지적 물 부족 문제를 경험하고 있다. 최근 국제적으로도 농업용수의 물 낭비 최소화와 절약 노력 및 타 분야 물 수요 증대에 대한 대응 능력 제고가 매우 중요한 과제로 부각되고 있다. 2006년 3월 멕시코에서 개최된 제4차 세계 물 포럼에서 국제 강 네트워크는 "세계 물 위기의 주범은 농경지", "농민들은 모든 물 위기 논의에서 핵심"이라고 주장하고, 전 프랑스 총리 미셀 로카르는 "...관개시설에 큰 문제점이 있고 덜 조방적 농업을 하도록 농민들을 설득해야 한다. 이는 전체 농경법을 바꾸는 문제..."(segye.com, 2006. 3. 19)라고 주장하는 등 세계 물 문제 해결을 위해서는 농업용수의 효율적 이용 관리가 중요함을 강조하였다. 본 연구는 이러한 국내외 여건 및 정책 환경 변화에 적극적으로 대처하고 물 분쟁에 따른 갈등해소 전략 수립과 효율적인 물 배분 및 이용을 위한 기초연구로서 농업용수 수리권과 관련된 법 및 제도를 분석하였다.. 삼요소의 시용 시험결과 그 적량은 10a당 질소 10kg, 인산 5kg, 및 가리 6kg 정도였으며 질소는 8kg 이상의 경우에는 분시할수록 비효가 높았으며 특히 벼의 후기 중점시비에 의하여 1수영화수와 결실율의 증대가 크게 이루어졌다. 3. 파종기와 파종량에 관한 시험결과는 공시품종선단의 파종적기는 4월 25일부터 5월 10일경까지 인데 이 기간중 일찍 파종하는 경우에 파종적량은 10a당 약 8${\ell}$이고 늦은 경우에는 12${\ell}$ 정도였다. 여기서 늦게 파종한 경우 감수의 가장

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A Study on the Development of Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model using Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index -Occurrence of Forest Fire in Kangwon Province- (캐나다 산불 기상지수를 이용한 산불발생확률모형 개발 -강원도 지역 산불발생을 중심으로-)

  • Park, Houng-Sek;Lee, Si-Young;Chae, Hee-Mun;Lee, Woo-Kyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2009
  • Fine fuel moisture code (FFMC), a main component of forest fire weather index(FWI) in the Canadian forest fire danger rating system(CFFDRS), indicated a probability of ignition through expecting a dryness of fine fuels. According to this code, a rising of temperature and wind velocity, a decreasing of precipitation and decline of humidity in a weather condition showed a rising of a danger rate for the forest fire. In this study, we analyzed a weather condition during 5 years in Kangwon province, calculated a FFMC and examined an application of FFMC. Very low humidity and little precipitation was a characteristic during spring and fall fire season in Kangwon province. 75% of forest fires during 5 years occurred in this season and especially 90% of forest fire during fire season occurred in spring. For developing of the prediction model for a forest fire occurrence probability, we used a logistic regression function with forest fire occurrence data and classified mean FFMC during 10 days. Accuracy of a developed model was 63.6%. To improve this model, we need to deal with more meteorological data during overall seasons and to associate a meteorological condition with a forest fire occurrence with more research results.

Study on Transport Policy Assessment Using the Integrated Land Use Transport Model (통합 토지이용 교통모형을 이용한 교통정책평가에 관한 연구 I: 기존사례연구를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Sohn, Jhi-Eon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2010
  • The policy which encourages people to use cars on the road has been based on the growth of economy in Korea. It has also caused the concentration and overcrowding in Seoul. That's because the increasing number of people possessing cars interconnects with the urban development. The transportation is a derived demand; so many scholars have recognized the importance of understanding the relationship between urban land use and transport. Considering such importance, this study theoretically compared the developed urban land use-transportation models each other and outlined the particular models briefly. Models were categorized by 2 types; optimizing model and predictive mode. Predictive model is also defined by static model, entropy based model, spatial-economic model, and activity model. After studying models, we investigated other major cities in America. This process is the pre-step for transport policy assessment. Through careful literature review, we can finally develop the integrated land-use transportation model in Seoul metropolitan area. In addition, we will be able to deal the changes of traffic demand pattern under U-Society. Consequently, the results of this study can be applied to ITS projects in the future.

Acoustic characteristics of sound field in partially opened rooms - Emphasis on horizontal coupling of diffuse and non-diffuse field - (실내공간의 부분적 개방에 따른 음향특성변화 I - 확산음장과 자유음장의 수평적 결합을 중심으로 -)

  • Jeong, Dae-Up;Choi, Young-Ji;Kim, Ji-Young;Oh, Yang-Ki;Choi, Seok-Ju
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.7 no.2 s.24
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    • pp.105-114
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    • 2007
  • Large span spaces have been widely used for various purposes including sports events in other countries. Due to increasing demands on multi-purpose use of such spaces, recently built large span sport facilities such dome stadiums have been required to accommodate sport events as well as performing events. Also, retractable ceilings and/or walls were generally adopted in those spaces for providing various event conditions. It seems obvious that the openings between diffuse fields and free field may cause difficulties in the acoustic design of such spaces In the present work, the acoustic characteristics of non-diffuse field has been investigated using 1/10 acoustic scale models. It was found that RTs at low- and mid-frequencies decayed faster than those at high-frequencies as the percentage of opening area increased. The decay rate of RTs at high frequencies were not influenced by increasing the area of an opening. Also high dependence of EDT on the percentage of opening area was observed at all frequency range. D50 was not improved by increasing the area of an opening up to 12.5% and then sharply increased. The application of Schroeder integration to evaluate the reverberation charateristics of coupled spaces may not be proper, since non-exponential decay process with double or triple decays of those spaces can not be properly defined. EDT seems more appropriate to predict reverberation at the early acoustic design stage of acoustically coupled spaces.

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The Role of Independent and Interdependent Self-Construals in Marital Satisfaction among Men and Women (기혼남녀의 자기관과 결혼만족의 관계 - 독립 및 상호의존적 자기관을 중심으로-)

  • Hyun, Kyoung-Ja
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.239-268
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    • 2004
  • This study examined the role of self-construals in marital satisfaction among men and women, and explored how independent and interdependent self-construals contribute to or undermine marital satisfaction. Data were drawn from a self-administered questionnaire study in which 489 married people(aged 25-75) residing in Seoul participated. Path analyses were conducted using Structural Equation Modeling Program, and a goodness of fit of the proposed path model was evaluated. As expected, the positive impact of independent self-construal on marital satisfaction was mediated by self-esteem and clarity of communication, and that of interdependent self-construal on marital satisfaction was mediated by psychological stability and a sense of relational well-being. The direct effects of these two types of self-construal on marital satisfaction were opposite. As predicted, independent self-construal decreased marital satisfaction, whereas interdependent self-construal increased it. All of the direct and indirect effects of independent and interdependent self-construals on marital satisfaction were statistically significant, except the indirect effect of interdependent self-construal as mediated by psychological stability. The goodness of fit indexes of the path model indicated that the model was acceptable. However, the results of separate path analyses for men and women showed that some of the effects of self-construals on marital satisfaction differed by gender. Based on these results, implications for clinical social work practice were discussed.

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Examination of the Restructuring of Korean Economy: Simulation of the Multisector Model (한국경제(韓國經濟)의 구조변화(構造變化) 전망(展望): 다부문모형(多部門模型)의 모의실험(模擬實驗))

  • Kim, Jung-ho;Park, Jun-kyung
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.155-187
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    • 1992
  • The Korean economy has sustained high growth rate for almost three decades, that have been associated with the rapid expansion of manufacturing industries. In the beginning stage of development, the high growth of the Korean economy has been based on improvements in productivity obtained by the economies of scale. In that period, the improvements in productivity could be secured by the economies of scale in the export-oriented industries which are the labor- and material-intensive industries. In the latter half of the 1980s, the Korean economy went through rapid transition. Now Korea is at another juncture in its development process, where economic restructuring is critical to sustain high growth. However, economic restructuring in the 1990s call for much more concerted effort than before, since changes in internal and external conditions have profoundly altered the environment for economic development. If Korea is to sustain high growth in the 1990s, it has to promote balanced economic and social development in coordination with the smooth facilitation of industrial restructuring. There are no inherent conflicts among the issues involved, so they can be resolved by restructuring the economy to facilitate, in a global context, the development of knowledge- and technology-intensive activities and to ensure that the benefts of growth are reflected of qualitative improvements in national living standards. In this paper, we examined a scenario of structural changes using a mid- and long-term multisector model, in order to understand the conditions needed for realizing the growth potential. This examination explains the important features of the development course and policy directions that will help sustain high growth in the 1990s.

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An interaction between flood and economy on socio-hydrology perspective -Case study for Yangjae River- (사회수문학적 관점에서 홍수-경제-지역사회 상호작용 -양재천 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Kang, Subin;Kim, Jin-Young;Lee, Sangeun;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.7
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    • pp.509-522
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    • 2021
  • In many countries, including Korea, it has been challenging to understand flood-related social dynamics due to urbanization and climate change. In this regard, socio-hydrology has been proposed to consider the interaction between hydrologic systems, land-use change, and human activities. However, there is a general lack of understanding of the interactions of socio-hydrologicsystems. This study examines the interactions between human activities and hydrologic systems from a sociological perspective using a dynamic system model. In other words, this study aims to present a conceptualization model that considers the mutual interaction of flood and community from a socio-hydrologic perspective. Depending on the construction cost of the levee for the Yangjae River, this study considered three scenarios to simulate the interaction of socio-hydrologic systems. Socio-hydrologic interactions can effectively reproduce the changes in the Yangjae River. Moreover, It is expected that the proposed model can be further used to understand possible hydrologic changes and interaction with social systems in the future as a decision-making tool in water resources management.