• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 중심의 모형

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Prediction of Groundwater Level in Chojung Area (초정지역의 지하수 유동해석)

  • 안상도;김경호;정영훈
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2000
  • The area of Chojung is famous for its mineral water quality. Because of this reason, massive groundwater development was induced in the area. As a result of excessive pumping. the depletion of the groundwater resources is expected seriously. This study was conducted to analyse groundwater flow in Chojung using a numerical model. Simulation results show the groundwater level change slowly in the mountain area but steep groundwater drawdown occurred in the pumping area in the downstream. This steep groundwater drawdown is due to excessive pumping in the hilly region. Because of this excessive, desiccation of water resources were predicted and proper countermeasure is in great demand.

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A study on the Intention of Using VR Games: Focusing on Technology Acceptance Model(TAM) (VR 게임 이용 의도에 관한 연구 -기술 수용 모델을 중심으로-)

  • Na, Ji Young;Wui, Min-Young
    • Journal of Korea Game Society
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to identify what elements of VR games satisfy and continuous usage for the sustainable development of VR games. Specifically, an extended acceptance model was proposed with the addition of perceived costs, presences, satisfied variables to predict the acceptance and the intention of continued use of VR games. As a result, in general, it was found that the extended technology acceptance model with three external factors is more advantageous to explain the characteristics of VR game and its effect on users than the existing model. This study is suggested an integrated research model that considers the core characteristics of VR games and observe which factors lead to the persistent intention to contribute to the study about the VR game.

Development of a Prediction Model and Correlation Analysis of Weather-induced Flight Delay at Jeju International Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques (머신러닝(Machine Learning) 기법을 활용한 제주국제공항의 운항 지연과의 상관관계 분석 및 지연 여부 예측모형 개발 - 기상을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Choongsub;Paing, Zin Min;Yeo, Hyemin;Kim, Dongsin;Baik, Hojong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2021
  • Due to the recent rapid increase in passenger and cargo air transport demand, the capacity of Jeju International Airport has been approaching its limit. Even though in COVID-19 crisis which has started from Nov 2019, Jeju International Airport still suffers from strong demand in terms of air passenger and cargo transportation. However, it is an undeniable fact that the delay has also increased in Jeju International Airport. In this study, we analyze the correlation between weather and delayed departure operation based on both datum collected from the historical airline operation information and aviation weather statistics of Jeju International Airport. Adopting machine learning techniques, we then analyze weather condition Jeju International Airport and construct a delay prediction model. The model presented in this study is expected to play a useful role to predict aircraft departure delay and contribute to enhance aircraft operation efficiency and punctuality in the Jeju International Airport.

Fashion Brand Sales Forecasting Analysis Using ARDL Time Series Model -Focusing on Brand and Advertising Endorser's Web Search Volume, Information Amount, and Brand Promotion- (ARDL 시계열 모형을 활용한 패션 브랜드의 매출 예측 분석 -패션 브랜드와 광고모델의 웹 검색량, 정보량, 가격할인 프로모션을 중심으로-)

  • Seo, Jooyeon;Kim, Hyojung;Park, Minjung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.868-889
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    • 2022
  • Fashion companies are using a big data approach as a key strategic analysis to predict and forecast sales. This study investigated the effectiveness of the past sales, web search volume, information amount, brand promotion, and the advertising endorser on the sales forecasting model. The study conducted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) time series model using the internal and external social big data of a national fashion brand. Results indicated that the brand's past sales, search volume, promotion, and amount of advertising endorser information amount significantly affected the sales forecast, whereas the brand's advertising endorser search volume and information amount did not significantly influence the sales forecast. Moreover, the brand's promotion had the highest correlation with sales forecasting. This study adds to information-searching behavior theory by measuring consumers' brand involvement. Last, this study provides digital marketers with implications for developing profitable marketing strategies on the basis of consumers' interest in the brand and advertising endorser.

A longitudinal analysis of high school students' dropping out: Focusing on the change pattern of dropout, changes in school violence and school counseling. (전국 고등학교 학생의 학업중단에 대한 종단적 분석 -학업중단 변화양상에 따른 유형탐색, 학교폭력 및 학교상담의 변화추이를 중심으로-)

  • Kwon, Jae-Ki;Na, Woo-Yeol
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Child Welfare
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    • no.59
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    • pp.209-234
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    • 2017
  • This study viewed schools as a cause of students dropping out and posited that dropping out of high school would vary depending on the characteristics and influencing factors of the school from which students were dropping out. Therefore, focusing on schools, we longitudinally investigated the change patterns of school dropout across high schools in the country, and the types of changes in dropping out of high school. In addition, we predicted the general characteristics of schools according to the type of school students were dropping out from, looked at the changes in the major factors (i.e., school violence and school counseling) affecting school dropout, and reviewed schools' long-term efforts and outcomes in relation to school dropout. For this purpose, KERIS EDSS's "Secondary School Information Disclosure Data" were used. The final model included data collected five years20122016) from high schools across the country. The results were as follows. First, in order to examine the longitudinal change patterns of dropping out of high schools, a latent growth models analysis was conducted, and it revealed that, as time passed, the dropout rate decreased. Second, growth mixture modeling was used to explore types according to the change patterns of the school students were dropping out from. The results showed three types: the "remaining in school" type, the "gradually decreasing school dropout" type, and the "increasing school dropping out". Third, the multinomial logistic regression was conducted to predict the general characteristics of schools by type. The results showed that public schools, vocational schools, and schools with a large number of students who have below the basic levels in Korean, English and mathematics were more likely to belong to the "increasing school dropout" type. Further, the larger the total number of students, the higher the probability of belonging to the "remaining in school" type or the "gradually decreasing school dropout" type. Lastly, growth mixture modeling was used to analyze the trend of school violence and school counseling according to the three types. The focus was on the "gradually decreasing school dropout" type. In the case of the "gradually decreasing school dropout" type, it was found that as time passed, the number of school violence cases and the number of offenders gradually decreased. In addition, in terms of change in school counseling the results revealed that the number of placement of professional counselors in schools increased every year and peer counseling was continuously promoted, which may account for the "gradually decreasing school dropout" type.

A Study on Exit Delay of Dominant Technology in Technology Competition: Focused on Sailing Ship Effect (기술경쟁에서 구기술의 퇴출 지연 현상에 관한 연구: 범선 효과를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Da-Seul;Kim, Kyung-Ho;Jun, Seung-Pyo
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.119-147
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    • 2014
  • Technology competition is becoming a core element to get a competitive advantage in the market economy and its importance has been growing rapidly. Therefore, lots of studies on technology competition have been conducted and diversified. We focused on 'Sailing ship effect' which accelerates innovation in the old technology in response to the threat of the new technology. We found that previous studies had suggested the factors causing 'Sailing ship effect' from the viewpoint of either market or competitor. However, there are a lot of limitations to analyse the status and establish strategies. Hence, we hereby suggest a new technology competition analysis model considering market, technology and especially competitors at once by classifying the results of technology competition: 1) Replacement, 2) Status Quo, 3) Co-existence, and 4) Sailing ship effect. In this paper, we apply three cases to the suggested model in order to judge whether it is reasonable or not and confirm that it explains many cases related to 'exit delay' of a dominant technology. We expect this study will contribute to forecasting the results of technology competition and establish a response strategy if it enters into general use.

Analyzing the Effect of Online media on Overseas Travels: A Case study of Asian 5 countries (해외 출국에 영향을 미치는 온라인 미디어 효과 분석: 아시아 5개국을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hea In;Moon, Hyun Sil;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.53-74
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    • 2018
  • Since South Korea has an economic structure that has a characteristic which market-dependent on overseas, the tourism industry is considered as a very important industry for the national economy, such as improving the country's balance of payments or providing income and employment increases. Accordingly, the necessity of more accurate forecasting on the demand in the tourism industry has been raised to promote its industry. In the related research, economic variables such as exchange rate and income have been used as variables influencing tourism demand. As information technology has been widely used, some researchers have also analyzed the effect of media on tourism demand. It has shown that the media has a considerable influence on traveler's decision making, such as choosing an outbound destination. Furthermore, with the recent availability of online information searches to obtain the latest information and two-way communication in social media, it is possible to obtain up-to-date information on travel more quickly than before. The information in online media such as blogs can naturally create the Word-of-Mouth effect by sharing useful information, which is called eWOM. Like all other service industries, the tourism industry is characterized by difficulty in evaluating its values before it is experienced directly. And furthermore, most of the travelers tend to search for more information in advance from various sources to reduce the perceived risk to the destination, so they can also be influenced by online media such as online news. In this study, we suggested that the number of online media posting, which causes the effects of Word-of-Mouth, may have an effect on the number of outbound travelers. We divided online media into public media and private media according to their characteristics and selected online news as public media and blog as private media, one of the most popular social media in tourist information. Based on the previous studies about the eWOM effects on online news and blog, we analyzed a relationship between the volume of eWOM and the outbound tourism demand through the panel model. To this end, we collected data on the number of national outbound travelers from 2007 to 2015 provided by the Korea Tourism Organization. According to statistics, the highest number of outbound tourism demand in Korea are China, Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong and the Philippines, which are selected as a dependent variable in this study. In order to measure the volume of eWOM, we collected online news and blog postings for the same period as the number of outbound travelers in Naver, which is the largest portal site in South Korea. In this study, a panel model was established to analyze the effect of online media on the demand of Korean outbound travelers and to identify that there was a significant difference in the influence of online media by each time and countries. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, the impact of the online news and blog eWOM on the number of outbound travelers was significant. We found that the number of online news and blog posting have an influence on the number of outbound travelers, especially the experimental result suggests that both the month that includes the departure date and the three months before the departure were found to have an effect. It is shown that online news and blog are online media that have a significant influence on outbound tourism demand. Next, we found that the increased volume of eWOM in online news has a negative effect on departure, while the increase in a blog has a positive effect. The result with the country-specific models would be the same. This paper shows that online media can be used as a new variable in tourism demand by examining the influence of the eWOM effect of the online media. Also, we found that both social media and news media have an important role in predicting and managing the Korean tourism demand and that the influence of those two media appears different depending on the country.

Analysis on Playing Pattern of Mobile RPG's Combat Contents - Focus on - (모바일 역할수행 게임 전투 콘텐츠의 플레이 패턴 연구 - <세븐 나이츠>를 중심으로 -)

  • Lyou, Chul-Gyun;Kim, HwaHyun
    • Journal of Korea Game Society
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2016
  • A sense of oneness between a player and an avatar is more emphasized than role-playing itself in Korean RPG playing. Because of this tendency, the main contents of smart phone-based mobile RPG are mainly focus on combat. As PvP occurs more frequently in mobile RPG, playing experiences are diversified from sensitive control to simple repetition. Also, the auto-combat function offered in game system ingenerates funs from testing a mental model that a player statistically sets before playing. This paper analyzes the process of generating fun in mobile RPG based on Ralph Koster's Game Grammar theory. is selected as subject of this analysis. The pattern of mobile RPG playing is dichotomized : automation of producing materials and concentration on raid and PvP contents.

Loads of NREL Phase VI Rotor at Hub in Yawed Conditions (요 상태에서 NREL Phase VI 로터의 허브 중심 하중 예측)

  • Ryu, Ki-Wahn
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.47 no.12
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    • pp.841-847
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    • 2019
  • Time series data of 6-component loads were computed for a horizontal axis wind turbine rotor in yawed operating conditions with both rotating and non-rotating coordinate systems fixed at a center of a rotor hub. In this study, a well-known 20 kW class of the NREL Phase VI rotor was used for a model wind turbine, and this paper focuses on the yaw moments and over-turning moments for the operating wind speed range between 6 to 25 m/s. Unsteady blade element momentum theorem was adopted to get the aerodynamic loads acting on the wind turbine rotor. Computed 6-component loads using the developed UBEM code were compared with those using the NREL FAST program. From the computed results, both yaw and over-turning moments would be basic inputs to determine not only the specification of yawing mechanism but also the design condition of foundation.

Effect of Perceived Supervisor Support on In-Role and Extra-Role Performance: The Mediating Role of Job-Based Psychological Ownership (상사지원인식이 역할내 성과와 역할외 성과에 미치는 영향: 직무기반 심리적 주인의식의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Chah, Dong-Ok;Hong, Kwon-Pyo;Chang, Je-Wook;Park, Sung-Hyun;Kang, Geum-Won
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.398-410
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    • 2012
  • This study aims to investigate the effect of perceived supervisor support(PSS) on employees' in-role and extra-role performance by examining the mediating role of job-based psychological ownership(JBPO). Data were collected from 269 employees from a variety of companies. Both regression analysis and structural equation modeling were used. Previous research has found a positive relationship between PSS and job performance. However, empirical analysis has not yet demonstrated PSS-performance relationships mediated through JBPO. Thus, this study investigated this mediation in predicting in-role and extra-role performance. In the current study, JBPO was found to fully mediate the relationship between PSS and in-role performance and to partially mediate the relationship between PSS and extra-role performance. Future discussions and practical implications are discussed.