• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.946-951
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• 2007

R&D institutes, supporting development in industry, are required to provide an economic basis of their R&D investments. In this paper, we apply prospective cost-benefit analysis to evaluate the economic impact of R&D investments. We compute main metrics with cost and benefit estimated via counter-factual evaluation model. Among many projects of KRISS to improve measurement reliability, three projects are evaluated by applying prospective cost-benefit analysis.

• Archives of design research
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• v.20 no.1 s.69
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• pp.5-20
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• 2007

The aim of this research is to find out the flows of mega-trends and design trends by analyzing the factors that influence trend and design trends in the late 20th century. Moreover, it is to forecast and recommend design color trends by evaluating color trends in design trends for the near future. Secondary and primary research were used in parallel. In the late 20th century, mega-trends were analyzed from secondary research based on PEST. Design trends were analyzed from case studies in fashion, space, product and visual design. On this basis, design color trends were analyzed. Also, color trends were forecast for the near future. The results are as follows. Firstly, the main trends in the late 20th century were 'female thinking', 'back to the nature' and 'heaven of peace'. Second, main design trends in the 1970s were modernism, post-modernism and high-tech. In the 1980s, with those of the 1970s, ecology was introduced In the late 1980s. In the 1990s, modernism rose again and ecology had an influence. The trends of 'female thinking' and 'back to the nature' controled the design in the early 2000s. Third, design colors in the late 20th century changed from Red to Purple Blue. Tones changed from 'grayish' to 'dull' Finally, it was forecast that Purple Blue, Yellow Red and Green colors with 'grayish', 'dull' and 'deep' tones were going to be used mainly in the near future. Also, achromatic colors with female and warm nuances would be reflected in design parts. This research will be very useful in that it has built a concrete database reflected on design trends forecasting in the near future by organizing academically a methodology to identify trends reflected on design and identifying relation between mega-trends and design trends based on analyzing factors that influence trend.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.292-312
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• 2017

The purposes of this research are to verify: first, if the technology appraisal model reflects the company's management performance and the rates of bankruptcy and overdue; second, if the existing classification system of technology levels is suitable; and third, which is the most important appraisal factor that defines the classification system of technology levels. As a result of the analysis, financial performance (stability) and non-financial performance (technology environment) proved to be significant variables in explaining technology ratings. According to the verification of the suitability of classification system, it appeared that there is a significant difference in all appraisal items of all groups. The result of neural networks model verification indicates that the most important variable was the R&D capacity, the second variables which determine the suitability of technology financing were indicators related to the company management. The second variables which determine a company's technological excellence were a company's technological base. To summarize, the technology appraisal model not only reflects both managerial performance and risks of a company, but also anticipates the future by converging the management competence and technological competitiveness into R&D capacity. This implies that if the 'forward-looking' technology appraisal model is integrated into the existing, credit rating model, the appraisal model may have positive impact on improving anticipation and stability.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.197-215
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• 2021

This paper analyzes the machine learning predictions of the economic effects of Busan's strategic industries on the employment and income using the Ridge Regression and Lasso Regression models with regulation terms. According to the Ridge estimation and Lasso estimation models of employment, the intelligence information service industry such as the service platform, contents, and smart finance industries and the global tourism industry such as MICE and specialized tourism are predicted to influence on the employment in order. However, the Ridge and Lasso regression model show that the future transportation machine industry does not significantly increase the employment and income since it is the primitive investment industry. The Ridge estimation models of the income show that the intelligence information service industry and global tourism industry are also predicted to influence on the income in order. According to the Lasso estimation models of income, four strategic industries such as the life care, smart maritime, the intelligence machine, and clean tech industry do not influence the income. Furthermore, the future transportation machine industry may influence the income negatively since it is the primitive investment industry. Thus, we have to select the appropriate economic objectives and priorities of industrial policies.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.199-207
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• 2016

This study was conducted to develop a forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for practical forecasting of forest fire danger rate by reflecting the climate change for the time period of 2000yrs. Forest fire in South Korea is highly influenced by humidity, wind speed, temperature, and precipitation. To effectively forecast forest fire occurrence, we developed a forest fire danger rating model using weather factors associated with forest fire in 2000yrs. Forest fire occurrence patterns were investigated statistically to develop a forest fire danger rating index using times series weather data sets collected from 76 meteorological observation centers. The data sets were used for 11 years from 2000 to 2010. Development of the national forest fire occurrence probability model used a logistic regression analysis with forest fire occurrence data and meteorological variables. Nine probability models for individual nine provinces including Jeju Island have been developed. The results of the statistical analysis show that the logistic models (p<0.05) strongly depends on the effective and relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, and rainfall. The results of verification showed that the probability of randomly selected fires ranges from 0.687 to 0.981, which represent a relatively high accuracy of the developed model. These findings may be beneficial to the policy makers in South Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.335-346
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• 1997

This study aims at examining closely the scour around a pier due to irregular water stage changes during flood. At the Sangye bridge is located lowermost downstream of the Bocheong stream in the Kum River, the IHP experimental watershed. For this purpose, we have analyzed the change of scour depths due to stage hydrographs of experimental basin by a simulation. To examine the scour phenomenon around a pier due to irregular stage change in flood, we have analyzed the change of scour depth corresponding to stage hydrograph of field watershed after verification of model channel. From this study, the following conclusions are made: First, in case of predicting the maximum scour depth around a pier with stage hydrograph in the state of steady flow, we should choose the highest stage. Second, after increasing the stage, the equilibrium scour depth became smaller than the maximum scour depth. Therefore, in case of estimating the maximum scour depth in rivers, it is recommended that we should consider additional scour depth with is reduced by infilling the sediments.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.23-23
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• 2018

본 연구에서는 다중분위회귀분석모형(Multiple Quantile Regression Model, MQRM)과 MODIS(MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) LST (Land Surface Temperature) 자료를 이용하여 전국 공간토양수분을 산정하였다. 공간토양수분을 산정하기 위한 과정은 크게 두가지로 구분된다. 첫 번째로 기존의 MODIS LST 자료를 조건부 합성 보정기법을 적용하여 실측 LST 자료와 비교하여 위성 LST 자료가 갖고 있는 오차를 보정하였다. 그 결과, 조건부 합성 보정기법을 적용하기전 전국 71개 지상관측지점에서 관측한 실측 LST와 MODIS LST의 $R^2$는 전체 평균 0.70으로 어는정도 유의성 있는 상관관계를 나타냈으나 조건부 합성 보정기법을 적용한 후 실측 LST와 MODIS LST의 $R^2$는 전체 평균 0.92로 상당히 크게 향상됨을 알 수 있었다. 두 번째로 보정된 MODIS LST를 이용하여 다중분위회귀분석 모형을 개발하고 토양수분을 예측하는 단계로 입력자료로 위성영상 자료와 관측자료를 융합하여 사용하였다. 위성영상 자료로는 보정된 MODIS LST와 MODIS NDV를 구축하였고 일단위 강수량 및 일조시간의 기상자료는 기상청으로부터 전국 71개 지점에 대해 구축하여 IDW 공간보간기법을 이용한 공간자료로 구축하였다. 토양수분 결과를 비교하기 위한 관측 토양수분은 자동농업기상관측(Automated Agriculture Observing System, AAOS)지점에서 2013년 1월부터 2015년 12월까지의 실측 일단위 토양수분 자료를 구축하여 사용하였다. 다중분위회귀분석 모형은 LST 인자를 중심으로 각각의 분위(0.05, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.95)에 해당되는 값의 회귀식을 NDVI, 강수 입력자료를 독립인자로서 조합하여 계절 및 토성에 따른 총 80개의 회귀식을 산정하였다. 관측 토양수분과 모의 토양수분을 비교한 결과 $R^2$가 0.70 (철원), 0.90 (춘천), 0.85 (수원), 0.65 (서산), 0.78 (청주), 0.82 (전주), 0.62 (순천), 0.63 (진주), 0.78 (보성)로 높은 상관성을 보였다. 본 연구에서는 다중분위회귀 모형의 성능을 검증하기 위해 기존의 다중선형회귀모형의 결과와 비교하여 크게 개선됨을 나타냈다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.267-280
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• 2007

Various single-valued design optimality criteria such as D-, G-, and V-optimality are used often in constructing optimal experimental designs for mixture experiments in a constrained region R where lower and upper bound constraints are imposed on the ingredients proportions. Even though they are optimal in the strict sense of particular optimality criterion used, it is known that their performance is unsatisfactory with respect to the prediction capability over a constrained region. (Vining et at., 1993; Khuri et at., 1999) We assume the quadratic polynomial model as the mixture response surface model and are interested in finding efficient designs in the constrained design space for a mixture. In this paper, we make an expanded list of candidate design points by adding interior points to the extreme vertices, edge midpoints, constrained face centroids and the overall centroid. Then, we want to propose a robust design with respect to D-optimality, G-optimality, V-optimality and distance-based U-optimality. Comparing scaled prediction variance quantile plots (SPVQP) of robust designs with that of recommended designs in Khuri et al. (1999) and Vining et al. (1993) in the well-known examples of a four-component fertilizer experiment as well as McLean and Anderson's Railroad Flare Experiment, robust designs turned out to be superior to those recommended designs.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.61-82
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• 2010

The purpose of this study is to examine the causuality among export and import trading volume of port of Busan, Kwangyang, Incheon and to induce policy implications. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test. And We apply Granger causality and impulse response and variance decomposition based on VECM. The results indicate that the trading volume of port of Busan is not largely influenced by that of port of Kawangyang and Incheon, but the trading volume of port of Kawangyang and Incheon is largely influenced by other ports including port of Busan. The result suggest that government has to focus on policy that the port of Kawangyang and Incheon can raise its own competitiveness in the world market.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.397-405
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• 2015

In the past, expressways focused on mobility. However, the paradigm of expressways fuction today has been changed from fast expressways to safe expressways as people's quality of living and consciousness level heightened. In 2012, 3,550 traffic accidents occurred on expressways and 371 people died. The fatality rate of traffic accidents on expressways is almost twice that on general national roads. This study developed accident forecast models (safety performance functions) based on the number of traffic accidents and traffic volumes on six major lines on expressways. It is difficult to forecast safety performance functions for each expressway line because the lines and the scales of expressways are different from each other; therefore, integrated safety performance functions of six lines were determined first, and the coefficients, which can correct the traffic accidents on each line, were calculated. It is believed that this study will contribute in the safer management of expressways by being used as basic information in the establishment of traffic safety strategies for each expressway line in prevention of traffic accidents. Moreover, more studies would be required in the future, which would suggest reliable accident forecasts by calculating correction coefficients by line through integrated models by groups dependent on the characteristics of each line.