• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 중심의 모형

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Simulation of landscape evolution using LEGS: With a focus on rainfall and tectonic uplift conditions (LEGS를 이용한 지형발달 모의: 강우 - 융기 조건을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Won;Paik, Kyung-Rock
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.736-736
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    • 2012
  • 유수의 침식과 퇴적작용은 지형의 변화를 일으키며, 이런 지형변화는 하천 흐름, 지하수 흐름 등의 변화를 가져오며 이는 다시 지형변화의 원인이 된다. 이런 일련의 과정이 되풀이되는 것을 지형발달이라 하며, 이는 수문 현상에도 지대한 영향을 미친다. 지형발달의 주요 인자에는 강우와 지반 융기 등이 있으며 각 주요 인자들은 복합적으로 지형발달에 영향을 준다. 하지만 지형발달 탐구 시 실제 지형을 대상으로 탐구하기에는 한계가 분명히 있다. 그래서 본 연구에서는 컴퓨터를 이용해 수식을 계산하여 수치적으로 지형발달을 모의하는 모형을 이용하여, 지형발달에 영향을 주는 강우와 지반 융기를 중점적으로 탐구하였다. 지형발달모형을 이용하면 더욱 다양한 관점에서 지형발달과정의 역동성을 파악하는 새로운 시도들이 가능하다. 특히 특정 환경 조건에서의 논리적인 지형의 반응을 통한 해석이 가능해져, 환경 변화로 어떠한 지형변화 또는 지표물질 수지 변화가 있을지를 예측할 수 있다(변종민, 2011). 또한, 지형발달 일련의 과정들을 살펴볼 수 있기 때문에 시 공간적 제약에서 벗어날 수 있다. 그러므로 지형발달모형은 강우와 융기 조건에 따른 지형발달을 모의하기에 적합하다. 본 연구는 LEGS을 이용하여 강우와 융기 조건에 따른 지형발달 모의를 진행하였다. LEGS는 지표수의 흐름을 탐색하는 방법으로 GD8을 이용한 물리 기반의 수치적 지형발달모형이다(Paik, 2012). 본 연구에서는 강우의 변동과 융기 조건의 변화가 지형발달에 상당한 영향을 미치는 것을 발견하였다. 특히, 유역의 표고차이 등과 같은 정량적인 지표의 변화에 주목하여 각종 분석을 하고, 물리적 원인을 고찰하였다.

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Effects of Street Centrality on the Land Prices in Seoul, South Korea (서울시 가로망 중심성의 토지가격 효과 연구)

  • Kang, Chang Deok
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.51-70
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    • 2017
  • This study aimed to measure street centralities with the street width, and to analyze their effects on the residential and non-residential land prices in Seoul, South Korea. Most of the studies on urban economics and policy focusing on the urban spatial structure have evolved in terms of their perspective from monocentric to polycentric models. Recently, their themes shifted to measuring street centralities and capturing their effects on urban phenomena. To expand the existing studies and discussion, this study analyzed the street centralities with the street width, and how they changed the land prices. Multilevel regression models generated a few key findings relevant to the relationship between street centralities and land prices. While a higher detour volume and closeness to wider streets commanded premium residential land prices, higher visibility and detour volume to wider streets were associated with higher non-residential land prices. These findings suggest a robust connection between street configuration and near-land prices. Thus, the results of this study suggest a few insightful policy implications for urban planners, urban designers, real estate developers, and appraisers.

Traffic Accident Prediction Model by Freeway Geometric Types (고속도로 선형조건별 교통사고 위험도 평가모형 개발 (호남고속도로를 중심으로))

  • 강정규;이성관
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.163-175
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    • 2002
  • Fatalities from traffic accidents constitute one of the major health issues as well as safety ones in Korea. It has been reported that traffic accident is affected by the combined effects of road. vehicle. and human factors. Over the past few decades, a number of studies have been conducted to find the impact of road geometric factors on traffic safety. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of road geometric factors on traffic safety on Korean expressways. Detailed geometric design data were available from Korea Highway Corporation. Five-year traffic accident data on Honam expressway were collected and analyzed. It was found that following geometric factors influence traffic safety on expressways : radius of curve, curve length, and length of straight section. Furthermore, the existence of I.C. turned out to have a significant impact on traffic safety level. Based on the data analysis several multiple regression forms that relate traffic accident frequencies and geometric factors on expressways are developed.

The Development of Smart Jacket Incorporating MP3 functionality for Commercial Use (MP3 기능 스마트 재킷의 상용화 모형 개발)

  • Cho, Hyun-Seung;Kim, Jin-Hyung;Park, Sun-Min;Ryu, Jae-Hun;Lee, Joo-Hyeon
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.377-383
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this research is to develop a design model of a smart jacket incorporating MP3 functionality for commercial use, as one of the digital lines of textile to apply If technology. In order to conduct this study, the previous studies were analyzed and usability and wearability tests were conducted using five prototype design models of smart wear with MP3 functionality. Accordingly, the smart jacket incorporating MP3 functionality for commercial use, for which user-centered interface, usability and wearability were completed, was developed by optimizing the design and location of the input interface, control module, the path of wires and earphone etc., based on textile wire and keypad. The smart jacket targets the female dress market from late-teens to early twenties. It will be a high value commodity considers all aspects of recent fashion trends, consumers' emotional satisfaction and the value of digital wear.

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Student-, School-, and ICT-Factors Predicting Computer-based Collaborative Problem Solving: Focusing on Analyses of Multi-level Models (컴퓨터 기반의 협력적 문제해결력 성취를 예측하는 학생과 학교 및 ICT 요인 : 다층모형 분석을 중심으로)

  • Lim, Hyo Jin;Lee, Soon Young
    • Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.457-471
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    • 2018
  • This study examined student- and school-level background and ICT factors that affected PISA 2015 Collaborative Problem Solving (CPS) for Korean students (4863 students from 142 high schools). A two-level hierarchical linear model (HLM) was analyzed from the basic model (model 1) with no predictors to the final model (model 5) with all predictors. Results showed that first, gender, socioeconomic/cultural backgrounds, cooperation level positively predicted CPS scores while perceived unfairness of teacher negatively predicted the outcome. Second, the more frequently ICT was used for out-of-school learning purposes, the less frequently ICT was used for entertainment purposes, and the less frequently ICT was used in schools, the higher CPS scores were. Considering ICT autonomy and social interaction variables measured for the first time in PISA 2015, students who were more interested in ICT and more autonomous in using ICT devices achieved higher CPS scores. On the other hand, the more students considered ICT important as social interaction, the less they gained CPS scores. Third, in terms of school-level characteristics, the smaller the students behavior detrimental to learning, the higher the teachers perceived positive working environment, and the fewer the number of computers available per student, the higher CPS scores were. To facilitate computer-based collaborative problem-solving competence, it is important for students to have interest and autonomy in using ICT. In addition, the guidelines of ICT use and SW curriculum need to be established in order to increase the effectiveness of using ICT device in school.

Assessment of Teleconnection based Long-Range Flood Risk Prediction during different El Ni?o phases: A Case Study of Gyeongnam (원격상관기반 엘니뇨 시기별 홍수위험 장기예측 평가: 경남지자체 대상)

  • Yoon, Sun-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.91-91
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구는 대규모 대기환경패턴 변화에 따른 극한 기후발생 및 극치 수문사상의 지역적 변동 특성을 분석하였고, 통계기법을 이용한 기후지수와 수문변량간의 원격상관관계 분석결과를 이용하여 한반도 중 장기 수문변량 예측의 가능성을 진단하였다. 또한 경남 지자체를 대상으로 다양한 통계예측모형(AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA, VAR)을 구축하여 그 예측능력을 평가하고 적용성을 검토하였고, 중 장기 통합홍수위험 평가를 위한 인덱스를 개발하였다. 서로 다른 엘니뇨 시기별 홍수 위험도 평가결과 전형적인 엘니뇨(Cold Tongue El Nino)해에는 남해안 일부 지역(거제시, 남해군)에서 위험도가 높게 산정되었으며, 경남 북부지역에서는 위험도가 매우 낮게 산정되었다. 중앙태평양 엘니뇨(Warm Pool El Nino) 해에는 경남 남부 지역을 중심으로 홍수위험지수가 높게 나타나 중앙태평양 엘니뇨가 발달 시 경남지역의 홍수위험 발생 가능성 평년에 비하여 큰 것으로 분석된다. 또한 라니냐(La Nina) 해에는 경남 서쪽일부 지역(남해군, 하동군, 산청군)에서 통합홍수위험지수가 높게 나타났으며, 나머지 지역에서는 홍수위험도가 작거나 중간 값을 보이는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구는 중 장기적 관점에서 수자원 예측 및 효율적인 물 관리와 안정적인 용수공급에 도움을 줄 것으로 사료되며, 한반도 대상 특정 엘니뇨 해의 지자체별 홍수위험 취약성 평가에 활용이 가능할 것이다.

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Analysis of High-growth SMEs using Technology Appraisal Items for Investment: Focusing on Sales and Operating Profit (기술투자 평가항목을 활용한 고성장 중소기업 판별: 매출액과 영업이익을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jun-won
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.115-125
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    • 2024
  • This study defined the appraisal items of technology appraisal for investment as innovation characteristics and derived the determining factors for predicting high-growth companies. Through this, we presented a direction for improving the technology appraisal model for investment. High-growth companies were classified into high-growth companies in sales, high-growth companies in operating profit, and high-growth companies in both sales and operating profit. At this time, the concept of a gazelle company was applied and defined as a company with an average growth rate of 20% or more over three years after the appraisal year. As for the analysis results, in terms of technicality (appraisal items), it was significant in predicting high-growth companies in sales and high-growth companies in sales and operating profit. Therefore, it will be possible to increase the discrimination power of predictions by strengthening the technicality (appraisal items). On the other hand, the business feasibility (appraisal items) was significant in predicting high-growth companies in sales and high-growth companies in sales and operating profit, but in a negative direction. This is due to the composition and criteria of the business feasibility (appraisal items), and it was concluded that changes to the composition and criteria for the relevant items are necessary for future model improvement.

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북한의 환경오염 현황과 오염배출량 추정에 관한 연구 - 대기오염을 중심으로 -

  • Kim, Jeong-In;Park, Chang-Won
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.29-60
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    • 1997
  • 본 논문은 심각한 환경오염에 직면한 북한 환경오염에 관한 현황을 분석하고 향후의 환경오염 발생량을 추정하였다. 그러나 제한적인 북한의 에너지, 환경 및 경제관련 자료를 이용하여 에너지 수요 및 환경오염을 예측하였음으로 모형에 사용되는 계수의 설정과 추정결과의 어려움은 있음으로 향후 계속해서 보완해야 할 것이다. 구소련권과 통일 독일의 경우에서 보듯이 환경파괴에 의한 복구비용이 엄청난 경제적 비용을 초래하고 있다는 점을 고려할 때, 지금까지 제한되어 왔던 북한의 환경에 관한 연구를 본격적으로 시작하여 남 북한 환경협력방안을 수립하는 것이 바람직하며 환경기술의 이전을 통한 환경산업의 활성화도 남북 경협의 차원에서 고려해 볼만하다고 본다.

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Study of e-loaming and ICT education in the knowledge society (지식정보화 사회에서의 e-learning 과 ICT 활용 학습연구)

  • Baek Jong Sil;Park Young Chul
    • Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.121-123
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    • 2004
  • 본 논문에서는 유비쿼터스(Ubiquitous) 혁명이 미래학교를 어떻게 변화시킬 것인가 예측해 보며, 유비쿼터스 컴퓨팅과 유비쿼터스 네트워크기술을 중심으로 지식사회에서의 e-teaming 과 In (Information Communication Technology) 활용한 학습 연구를 수행하였다. 또한 e-school 의 모형과 협동학습을 기반으로 하는 블렌디드 러닝(Blended-Loaming) 활용 교수-학습 과정 안을 제안한다.

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Developing Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model Using Meteorological Characteristics (기상자료(氣象資料)를 이용(利用)한 산불발생확률모형(發生確率模型)의 개발(開發))

  • Choi, Kwan;Han, Sang Yoel
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.85 no.1
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 1996
  • Preparing the era of forest resources management requires studies on forest fire. This study attempted to develop forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for the practical purposes of forecasting forest fire danger rate. To accomplish this goal, the relationships between forest fire occurrence and meteorological characteristics are estimated. In the process, the forest fire occurrence pattern of the study region(Taegu-Kyungpook) is categorized by employing qualification IV method. The study region was divided into three areas such as, Taegu, Andong and Pohang area. The meteorological variables emerged as affective to forest fire occurrence are relative humidity, longitude of sunshine, and duration of precipitation. To estimate the probability of forest fire danger, forest fire occurrence of three areas are regressed on the time series data of affective meteorological variables using logistic and probit model. The effectiveness of the models estimated are tested and showed acceptable degree of goodness. Those models developed would be helpful to increase the efficiency of forest fire management such as detection of forest fire occurrence and effective disposition of forest fire fight equipments.

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