• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측계산식

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Relationship between EI Ni o/Southern Oscillation and Drought in Korea (엘니뇨/남방진동과 한국의 가뭄과 관계)

  • Lee, Dong-Ryul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 1999
  • The relationship between EI Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and drought in Korea is investigated using the cross correlation analysis. In this paper, Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI) is used as an index of drought and nine ENSO indicators are used. To obtain PDSI for Korea, the PDSI equation is derived using monthly precipitation and temperature in Korea. In addition, ENSO composite percentile analyses for PDSI, precipitation and streamflow in Korea are performed to verify the results of the cross correlation. Results of the cross correlation show that the link between drought in Korea and ENSO is statistically significant with 6% of the variance in PDSI for Korea explained by ENSO. The PDSI is negatively correlated with the equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature and the Sea Level Pressure(SLP) at Darwin leading by about 16 months. However, the relationship of the PDSI with the Southern Oscillation Index and the SLP at Tahiti is positive correlation. The ENSO composite percentile analyses show that drought, precipitation and streamflow in Korea are associated with ENSO during 6 months from December of the ENSO ending year

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Application of Species-specific DNA Probe to Field Samples of Alexandrium tamarense (Lebour) Balech (자연 시료로부터 Alexandrium tamarense을 위한 종 특이적 DNA탐침의 응용)

  • Cho, Eun-Seob;Kim, Gi-Young;Park, Hyung-Sik;Kim, Hak-Gyoon;Moon, Sung-Ki;Lee, Jae-Dong
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.250-255
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    • 2002
  • Fluorescent species-specific DNA probe (AT1) of toxic dinoflagellate Arexandrium tamarense was tested on several other species, on comparison of binding activity at different preservatives for fixation of the cells, at different culture age and estimation of cell density by light microscope or epifluorescent microscope using whole cell hybridization. Th AT1 probe specifically bound to Alexandrium tamarense, whereas it did not bind to other phytoplankton, in particular Alexandrium catenella, morphologically similar to Alexandrium tamarense, could not react to AT1 probe. When cells were fixed with all three preservatives, labeling cells of Alexandrium tamarense emitted strong fluorescent signal intensity. In addition, regardless culture days, binding activity with AT1 probe was strong. The tell densities estimated by epifluorescent microscope were than those estimated by light microscope. The enumeration and identifying of Arexandriurn tamarense using DNA probe method will be contributed to a new biotoxin monitoring and prediction system in field.

Generalized Sigmidal Basis Function for Improving the Learning Performance fo Multilayer Perceptrons (다층 퍼셉트론의 학습 성능 개선을 위한 일반화된 시그모이드 베이시스 함수)

  • Park, Hye-Yeong;Lee, Gwan-Yong;Lee, Il-Byeong;Byeon, Hye-Ran
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.26 no.11
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    • pp.1261-1269
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    • 1999
  • 다층 퍼셉트론은 다양한 응용 분야에 성공적으로 적용되고 있는 대표적인 신경회로망 모델이다. 그러나 다층 퍼셉트론의 학습에서 나타나는 플라토에 기인한 느린 학습 속도와 지역 극소는 실제 응용문제에 적용함에 있어서 가장 큰 문제로 지적되어왔다. 이 문제를 해결하기 위해 여러 가지 다양한 학습알고리즘들이 개발되어 왔으나, 계산의 비효율성으로 인해 실제 문제에는 적용하기 힘든 예가 많은 등, 현재까지 만족할 만한 해결책은 제시되지 못하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 다층퍼셉트론의 베이시스 함수로 사용되는 시그모이드 함수를 보다 일반화된 형태로 정의하여 사용함으로써 학습에 있어서의 플라토를 완화하고, 지역극소에 빠지는 것을 줄이는 접근방법을 소개한다. 본 방법은 기존의 변형된 가중치 수정식을 사용한 학습 속도 향상의 방법들과는 다른 접근 방법을 택함으로써 기존의 방법들과 함께 사용하는 것이 가능하다는 특징을 갖고 있다. 제안하는 방법의 성능을 확인하기 위하여 간단한 패턴 인식 문제들에의 적용 실험 및 기존의 학습 속도 향상 방법을 함께 사용하여 시계열 예측 문제에 적용한 실험을 수행하였고, 그 결과로부터 제안안 방법의 효율성을 확인할 수 있었다. Abstract A multilayer perceptron is the most well-known neural network model which has been successfully applied to various fields of application. Its slow learning caused by plateau and local minima of gradient descent learning, however, have been pointed as the biggest problems in its practical use. To solve such a problem, a number of researches on learning algorithms have been conducted, but it can be said that none of satisfying solutions have been presented so far because the problems such as computational inefficiency have still been existed in these algorithms. In this paper, we propose a new learning approach to minimize the effect of plateau and reduce the possibility of getting trapped in local minima by generalizing the sigmoidal function which is used as the basis function of a multilayer perceptron. Adapting a new approach that differs from the conventional methods with revised updating equation, the proposed method can be used together with the existing methods to improve the learning performance. We conducted some experiments to test the proposed method on simple problems of pattern recognition and a problem of time series prediction, compared our results with the results of the existing methods, and confirmed that the proposed method is efficient enough to apply to the real problems.

Characterizing CO2 Supersaturation and Net Atmospheric Flux in the Middle and Lower Nakdong River (낙동강 중하류에서 이산화탄소 과포화 및 순배출 특성 분석)

  • Lee, Eun Ju;Chung, Se Woong;Park, Hyung Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.416-416
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    • 2019
  • 육상 담수는 대기중 이산화탄소($CO_2$) 배출의 중요한 발생원으로 주목되고 있다. 하천 및 강에서 대기중으로 배출되는 $CO_2$는 전 세계 탄소순환의 핵심요소이며, 대부분의 하천과 강은 $CO_2$로 과포화 되어있다. 세계적으로 하천 및 강의 $CO_2$ 배출량은 호수 및 저수지의 배출량보다 약 5배 많은 것으로 보고되고 있으나, 국내연구에서는 연구사례가 드물다. 따라서 본 연구의 목적은 낙동강 중하류에 위치해있는 강정고령보(GGW), 달성보(DSW), 합천창녕보(HCW), 창녕함안보(CHW)에서 발생되는 순 대기 배출 플럭스(Net Atmospheric Flux, NAF)의 동적 변동 특성을 분석하고, 데이터마이닝 기법을 적용하여 쉽게 수집할 수 있는 물리적 및 수질 변수로 $CO_2$ NAF를 추정하는데 사용할 수 있는 간략한 예측 모델을 개발하는데 있다. $CO_2$ NAF는 대기-수면 경계면에서의 $CO_2$ 부분압($pCO_2$)의 차에 기체전달속도를 곱하여 산정하였으며, 기체전달속도는 Cole and Caraco(1998)가 제안한 식을 사용하였다. 담수와 해수의 탄산염 시스템에서 열역학적 화학평형을 모두 고려한 $CO_2$SYS 프로그램을 사용하여 수중의 $pCO_2$를 산정하였고, $CO_2$ NAF는 Henry의 법칙과 Fick의 1차 확산법칙을 사용하여 계산하였다. $CO_2$ NAF의 시간적 변동성에 영향을 미치는 환경요인을 평가하기 위해서 상관분석, 주성분분석(Principal Component Analysis; PCA), 단계적다중회귀모델(Step-wise Multiple Linear Regression; SMLR), 랜덤포레스트(Random Forest; RF)방법을 사용하였다. SMLR 모델은 R package인 olsrr, RF 모델은 R package인 caret, randomForest를 이용하여 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 4개 보 상류 하천구간은 조류의 성장이 활발한 일부 기간을 제외한 대부분의 기간에서 $CO_2$를 대기로 배출하는 종속영양시스템(Heterotrophic system)을 보였다. $CO_2$ NAF의 중위값은 HCW에서 최소 $391.5mg-CO_2/m^2day$, DSW에서 최대 $1472.7mg-CO_2/m^2day$였다. 모든 보에서 NAF는 pH와 강한 음의 상관관계를 보였으며, $pCO_2$와 Chl-a도 음의 상관관계를 보였다. 이는 조류가 수중에서 $CO_2$를 소비하고 pH를 증가시키기 때문이다. PCA 분석 결과, NAF와 $pCO_2$가 높은 공분산을 보였으며, pH와 Chl-a는 반대 방향으로 군집되어 상관분석과 동일한 결과를 보였다. 이 연구를 통해 개발된 SMLR 모델과 RF 모델의 Adj. $R^2$ 값은 모든 보에서 0.77 이상으로 나왔으며, $pCO_2$ 측정 데이터가 없더라도 하천의 $CO_2$ NAF를 추정하는 방법으로 사용될 수 있을 것으로 평가된다.

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Screening Assessment of Radiological Effect From Clearance of Decommissioning Concrete Waste Based Upon Recycling Framework of Construction Waste in Korea (국내 건설폐기물 재활용 체계를 반영한 해체 콘크리트 폐기물 자체처분 방사선 영향 예비평가)

  • Lim, Kun-Su;Cheong, Jae Hak;Whang, Joo Ho
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.441-454
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    • 2018
  • Since the permanent shutdown of Kori Unit 1 in 2017, a full-scale decommissioning project for a commercial nuclear reactor has been approaching. It is estimated that about 160,000 t of low-activity concrete waste will be produced from decommissioning of one unit of this commercial nuclear power reactor. Accordingly, it is necessary to review whether the effectiveness of the current regulatory framework for clearance waste (i.e. waste stream that meets activity concentration guidelines or dose criteria for clearance set forth in NSSC Notice No. 2017-65) can be maintained for the clearance of a bulk amount of concrete waste. In this regard, the IAEA SRS No. 44, which was used as a basis for revision of the Korean clearance regulations, is thoroughly analyzed and the radiological effects from four different clearance scenarios, along with input values and parameters derived from industrial practices in Korea, were evaluated. Though it is shown that the maximum annual dose from most recycling scenarios will be less than the clearance dose criterion for the normal scenario (i.e. an order of magnitude of $0.01mSv{\cdot}y^{-1}$), the radiation dose, estimated with conservative assumptions for the banking scenario, may exceed the above clearance dose criteria. Therefore, for safe and sustainable clearance of the bulk amount of concrete waste, it is required to diversify the concrete waste processors, perform more detailed site-specific assessment, and apply limiting conditions to the banking scenario.

A Study of the Nonlinear Characteristics Improvement for a Electronic Scale using Multiple Regression Analysis (다항식 회귀분석을 이용한 전자저울의 비선형 특성 개선 연구)

  • Chae, Gyoo-Soo
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the development of a weight estimation model of electronic scale with nonlinear characteristics is presented using polynomial regression analysis. The output voltage of the load cell was measured directly using the reference mass. And a polynomial regression model was obtained using the matrix and curve fitting function of MS Office Excel. The weight was measured in 100g units using a load cell electronic scale measuring up to 5kg and the polynomial regression model was obtained. The error was calculated for simple($1^{st}$), $2^{nd}$ and $3^{rd}$ order polynomial regression. To analyze the suitability of the regression function for each model, the coefficient of determination was presented to indicate the correlation between the estimated mass and the measured data. Using the third order polynomial model proposed here, a very accurate model was obtained with a standard deviation of 10g and the determinant coefficient of 1.0. Based on the theory of multi regression model presented here, it can be used in various statistical researches such as weather forecast, new drug development and economic indicators analysis using logistic regression analysis, which has been widely used in artificial intelligence fields.

Analysis of Statistical Characteristics of Pier-Scour Depth Formula Using Hydraulic Experiment Data (수리모형실험 자료를 이용한 교각 세굴심 산정공식의 통계적 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Sub;Chang, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.349-356
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    • 2021
  • Since the 1960s, traffic infrastructure, such as bridges, has increased rapidly in Korea as urbanization and industrialization progressed due to economic growth. As the scale of the bridge becomes larger, stability analysis of the superstructure of the bridge is being conducted actively, but scour stability analysis for the substructure of the bridge has not been conducted sufficiently. This study is a basic investigation to prevent large-scale disasters caused by scouring in bridge piers. A simple linear regression model was used to analyze the scour depth calculated through seventeen scour depth calculation formulae, and the scour depth measured through hydraulic model experiments. As a result, the Coleman (1971) formula was the best method among the scour depth calculation formulae, and the Froehlich (1987) formula was the most effective method for calculating the scour depth. In addition, a review using a simple regression model confirmed that the scour depth calculation formulae of CSU (1993), Coleman (1971), and Froehlich (1987) can predict a similar scour depth by reflecting domestic stream characteristics. This study can calculate the scour depth reflecting the environmental conditions of Korea in future stream design.

Analysis of the Effects of Some Meteorological Factors on the Yield Components of Rice (수도 수량구성요소에 미치는 기상영향의 해석적 연구)

  • Seok-Hong Park
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.18
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    • pp.54-87
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    • 1975
  • The effects of various weather factors on yield components of rice, year variation of yield components within regions, and regional differences of yield components within year were investigated at three Crop Experiment Stations O.R.D., Suweon, Iri, Milyang, and at nine provincial Offices of Rural Development for eight years from 1966 to 1973 for the purpose of providing information required in improving cultural practices and predicting the yield level of rice. The experimental results analyzed by standard partial regression analysis are summarized as follows: 1. When rice was grown in ordinary seasonal culture the number of panicles greatly affected rice yield compared to other yield components. However, when rice was seeded in ordinary season and transplanted late, and transplanted in ordinary season in the northern area the ratio of ripening was closely related to the rice yield. 2. The number of panicles showed the greatest year variation when the Jinheung variety was grown in the northern area. The ripening ratio or 1, 000 grain weight also greatly varied due to years. However, the number of spikelets per unit area showed the greatest effects on yield of the Tongil variety. 2. Regional variation of yield components was classified into five groups; 1) Vegetation dependable type (V), 2) Partial vegetation dependable type (P), 3) Medium type (M), 4) Partial ripening dependable type (P.R), and 5) Ripening dependable type (R). In general, the number of kernel of rice in the southern area showed the greatest partial regression coefficient among yield components. However, in the mid-northern part of country the ripening ratio was one of the component!; affecting rice yield most. 4. A multivariate equation was obtained for both normal planting and late planting by log-transforming from the multiplication of each component of four yield components to additive fashion. It revealed that a more accurate yield could be estimated from the above equation in both cases of ordinary seasonal culture and late transplanting. 5. A highly positive correlation coefficient was obtained between the number of tillers from 20 days after transplanting and the number of panicles at each(tillering) stage 20 days after transplanting in normal planting and late planting methods. 6. A close relationship was found between the number of panicles and weather factors 21 to 30 days, after transplanting. 7. The average temperature 31 to 40 days after transplanting was greatly responsible for the maximum number of tillers while the number of duration of sunshine hours per day 11 to 30 days after transplantation was responsible for that character. The effect of water temperature was negligible. 8. No reasonable prediction for number of panicles was calculated from using either number of tillers or climatic factors. The number of panicles could early be estimated formulating a multiple equation using number of tillers 20 days after transplantation and maximum temperature, temperature range and duration of sunshine for the period of 20 days from 20 to 40 days after transplantation. 9. The effects of maximum temperature and day length 25 to 34 days before heading, on kernel number per panicle, were great in the mid-northern area. However, the minimum temperature and day length greatly affected the kernel number per panicle in the southern area. The maximum temperature had a negative relationship with the kernel number per panicle in the southern area. 10. The maximum temperature was highly responsible for an increased ripening ratio. On the other hand, the minimum temperature at pre-heading and early ripening stages showed an adverse effect on ripening ratio. 11. The 1, 000 grain weight was greatly affected by the maximum temperature during pre- or mid-ripening stage and was negatively associated with the minimum temperature over the entire ripening period.

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Development of Greenhouse Cooling and Heating Load Calculation Program Based on Mobile (모바일 기반 온실 냉난방 부하 산정 프로그램 개발)

  • Moon, Jong Pil;Bang, Ji Woong;Hwang, Jeongsu;Jang, Jae Kyung;Yun, Sung Wook
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.419-428
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    • 2021
  • In order to develope a mobile-based greenhouse energy calculation program, firstly, the overall thermal transmittance of 10 types of major covers and 16 types of insulation materials were measured. In addition, to estimate the overall thermal transmittance when the cover and insulation materials were installed in double or triple layers, 24 combinations of double installations and 59 combinations of triple installations were measured using the hotbox. Also, the overall thermal transmittance value for a single material and the thermal resistance value were used to calculate the overall thermal transmittance value at the time of multi-layer installation of covering and insulating materials, and the linear regression equation was derived to correct the error with the measured values. As a result of developing the model for estimating thermal transmittance when installing multiple layers of coverings and insulating materials based on the value of overall thermal transmittance of a single-material, the model evaluation index was 0.90 (good when it is 0.5 or more), indicating that the estimated value was very close to the actual value. In addition, as a result of the on-site test, it was evaluated that the estimated heat saving rate was smaller than the actual value with a relative error of 2%. Based on these results, a mobile-based greenhouse energy calculation program was developed that was implemented as an HTML5 standard web-based mobile web application and was designed to work with various mobile device and PC browsers with N-Screen support. It had functions to provides the overall thermal transmittance(heating load coefficient) for each combination of greenhouse coverings and thermal insulation materials and to evaluate the energy consumption during a specific period of the target greenhouse. It was estimated that an energy-saving greenhouse design would be possible with the optimal selection of coverings and insulation materials according to the region and shape of the greenhouse.

Ecophysiological Studies on the Population Dynamics of Two Toxic Dinoflagellates Alexandrium tamarense and Alexandrium catenella Isolated from the Southern Coast of Korea -I. Effects of Temperature and Salinity on the Growth (남해연안해역에서 분리한 유독와편모조류 Alexandrium tamarense와 Alexandrium catenella의 개체군 변화에 관한 생리.생태학적 연구 -I. 수온과 염분의 변화에 따른 성장 특성)

  • Oh, Seok-Jin;Park, Ji-A;Kwon, Hyeong-Kyu;Yang, Han-Soeb;Lim, Weol-Ae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.133-141
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    • 2012
  • Effects of temperature and salinity on the growth of the toxic dinoflagellate $Alexandrium$ $tamarense$ and $A.$ $catenella$ isolated from the southern coast of Korea were examined in the laboratory. Growth experiment was conducted under the following combinations of temperature and salinity; 10, 15, 20, 25 and $30^{\circ}C$, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 psu at a constant irradiance of 300 ${\mu}mol$ photons $m^{-2}s^{-1}$. Temperature and salinity conditions for maximum growth rate were indicated as follows: temperature $15^{\circ}C$ and salinity 30 psu (0.31 $d^{-1}$) in $A.$ $tamarense$, temperature $25^{\circ}C$ and salinity 30 psu (0.36 $d^{-1}$) in A. catenella. Temperature and salinity ranges for optimum growth condition of two species were $10{\sim}20^{\circ}C$, 25~35 psu and $120{\sim}30^{\circ}C$, 25~35 psu, respectively. The result of two-factor ANOVA indicated significant effects (P<0.001) of temperature and salinity on the growth rate, and two species were more effected by a temperature than a salinity on the growth. In addition, prediction equations were obtained through the multiple regressions of the specific growth rates as ${\mu}=0.04+0.0193T-0.0339S- 0.0005T^2+0.0021S^2+0.00073TS-0.000022T^3-0.000038S^3+0.00000086TS^2-0.0000255T^2S$ in $A.$ $tamarense$ and ${\mu}=1.01-0.1288T-0.0778S+0.0067T^2+0.0038S^2+0.00204TS-0.0001T^3-0.000059S^3-0.0000131TS^2-0.0000392T^2S$ in $A.$ $catenella$. Correlation coefficient between experimental values and simulated values was highly indicated. These results seem to provide information for understanding the spreading mechanism of $A.$ $tamarense$ and $A.$ $catenella$.