• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예상출산 자녀수

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The Economic and Social Implication of Count Regression Models for Married Women's Completed Fertility in Korea (우리나라 가구의 자녀수 결정요인에 관한 Count 모형 분석 및 경제적 함의)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sook
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.107-135
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    • 2007
  • This paper uses a static Gamma count model, a traditional hurdle model and an endogenous switching Poisson model, respectively for determining married women's completed fertility rates in Korea. This paper analyzes the impact of household income, women's wage and education, and women's job market participation on the number of children of married women above age 40 and on the expected number of children of women aged below 40. The paper shows that a household income significantly increases the number of children for at least women aged above 40, however, this income effect is disappearing for younger generation. The empirical model suggests that women having a job tend to have fewer children for a group 39 years old and below and find that there is an endogeneity problem between child birth and labor force participation, too. The education level of married women gives a positive effect for giving a birth, itself, while it gives a negative impact on the number of children. Based on the empirical results, it concludes that Becker's Quantity-Quality theory works for Korea, too.

Understanding expected number of children of childless married and single men and women (미혼 및 기혼 무자녀 남성과 여성의 출산 의사 고찰과 미래 예상 출산 자녀수 관련 변인 탐색)

  • Kwon, Young In
    • Korean Journal of Human Ecology
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.251-268
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    • 2014
  • Applying the data from 64 single(26 men and 38 women) and 71 childless married men and women(37 men and 34 women) aged between 30 and 45, this study is to understand their future fertility intention. For this purpose, ideal and real number of children that participants plan to have were compared using paired t-test. Second, demographic variables(sex, age, marital status), child care related variables(thoughts about caring children, child care value), individual characteristics(gender role attitude, relation orientation) and social context variables(perceived economic condition, recognition of low fertility policies) were included in a stepwise regression model to explain expected number of children participants plan to have in the future. Results showed that ideal number of children participants wish to have was significantly higher than real number of children they expect to have in the Korean society. The stepwise regression model explained 35% of the variance of the dependent variable. Among four types of variables, child care related variables most powerfully explained expected number of children study participants plan to have in the future. Finally, age, child care value, gender role attitude, and relation orientation significantly explained expected number of children in the future.

우리나라는 저출산함정에 빠진 것인가? - 저출산함정 가설의 검증과 함의 -

  • Eom, Dong-Uk
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.141-159
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    • 2009
  • 우리나라는 2002년 초저출산 사회(합계출산율 1.3명 이하)로 진입한 후 합계출산율이 평균 1.2 이하인 상황이 지속되고 있다. 이러한 초저출산 상황이 향후 지속된다면 인구고령화의 사회 경제적 여파가 예상보다 클 것으로 전망된다. 과연 이런 초저출산 추세가 일시적인 것인지 아니면 앞으로 계속 지속될 것인지에 대한 검토가 필요하다. 이에 본 연구는 최근 저출산함정 가설(low fertility trap hypothesis)을 제기한 Lutz, Skirbekk and Testa(2006)의 논의를 소개한다. 그들은 크게 인구학적, 사회적, 그리고 경제적 요인과 같이 3가지 요인으로 구분하여 저출산함정의 존재 가능성을 논하고 있다. 그렇다면 과연 우리나라는 저출산함정에 빠져 있는가? 먼저 고령화 가설의 경우 출생아수와 고령화간 부(-)의 관계가 나타나고 있으며, 최근 이상자녀수가 2.2~2.3명이지만, 실제자녀수는 그 수준을 하회하고 있어 이상자녀수가설도 지지된다. 상대소득가설의 경우, 류덕현(2007)의 연구결과에 따르면 연령 계층 간 상대소득이 출산율에 정(+)의 효과를 보여 상대소득가설이 지지되는 것으로 나타났다. 물론 제한된 영역에서 완벽한 검증이 이루어진 것은 아니지만, 적어도 출산율이 대체수준까지 회복되기에는 어려운 상황이라는 점을 발견할 수 있었으며, 이는 우리나라의 저출산 문제가 얼마나 심각한 수준인지를 재확인시켜준다.

Parity Specific Approach to the Plan of Having an Additional Child (기혼여성의 출산아수별 추가출산계획)

  • Kim, Cheong-Seok
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.97-116
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    • 2007
  • As the fertility level in Korea continues to drop with detrimental implications for the society, it has regained much attention of academics and policy makers. This study, building on the previous research on fertility behavior, attempts to explore the plan of young married women to have an additional child. While such plan is not always put into practice, it is still closely related to fertility behavior. In addition, it can provide useful clues to understanding behavior in the future. Utilizing a recent nationwide survey on marriage and fertility, the study analyzes the plan of further birth among young married women according to the number of their children. The results show that the plan for first child is quite universal as no difference is found by their socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. However, having plan for second child differs by the work status of husbands, presence of mother of young married women, and the sex of first child. The effects of first two factors suggest that young married women take into consideration stability of home economics and availability of care sharing. As for the plan for the child, the present and ideal sex composition of children appear most important. The results indicate that the mechanism of fertility progression differs by the current number of children. Thus, consideration of such differential would help us deepen our understanding of fertility behaviors and need to reflect in the study. The study also argues that comprehensive and systematic qualitative research should be accompanied by to capture complexity of fertility decision making process.

Prevalence Study of Mothers' Perception on Pregnancy, Childbirth, and Childcare: Comparison Between Years 2002 and 2007 (영아기 첫 자녀를 둔 어머니의 임신 및 출산, 양육 변인에 관한 연구: 2002년과 2007년 실태 비교를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yang Eun;Cho, Bok Hee;Jung, Min Ja
    • Korean Journal of Childcare and Education
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.68-85
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the changes of mothers' condition including the level of knowledge and parenting stress that mothers have on infant development. The subjects of this study are 270 mothers whose infants range in age from birth to 36 months. The instruments used are: 1)KCDI(Knowledge of Child Development Inventory, Larsen & Juhasz, 1985) 2)Parenting Stress Scale(Kim & Kang, 1997), and a demographic questionnaire. The data analyses use SPSS 12.0 which employs basic statistics, reliability test, and t-test. This study is time-lag design covering five years. Therefore, the data collected originates from 2002 and 2007 to constitute input from two times. The results of this study indicate that the average pregnancy from the 2007 statistics occurred 0.46 months earlier, after marriage, as compared to pregnancies in 2002. Mothers who gave birth by natural birth increased from 59.9 % to 75.3 % over the five year period. Regarding knowledge of infant development, the level of mothers' knowledge was lower in 2007 than in 2002 according to study results. The level of parenting stress of mothers increased for the 2007 statistics as compared to the 2002 survey.

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Is Lowest-Low Fertility going to Continue in Korea? (초저출산은 지속될 것인가?)

  • Chung, Sung-Ho
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.113-136
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    • 2010
  • Low fertility has become quite commonplace worldwide, and Europe has experienced below replacement fertility for several decades. In addition, lowest-low fertility, defined as period total fertility rate below 1.3, has rapidly spread in Europe during the 1990s and is likely to expand further. After the turn of century, lowest-low fertility started spreading in Eastern Asia. Korea's TFR of 1.19 in 2008 is lower than most European countries, although it is higher than the Hongkong(1.02) and Taiwan(1.09). The purpose of this paper is to examine the socioeconomic determinants of lowest-low fertility in Korea. In doing so, this paper discusses the effects of female labour force participation, labour instability on family formation and fertility. The data includes female labour force participation rate, unemployment rate, age at first marriage, and total fertility rate from 1980 to 2008. First, the economic recession hindered young people's economic independence and propensity to marry. Married couples were also depressed with uncertainty toward the future and avoided to have children. Second, the growth in female labor force participation had a negative impact on fertility, under the low level of compatibility between women's work and childrearing. Moreover, this paper argues that the rising cost of children including public and private educational costs is thought to be the main reason of the recent low fertility in Korea. Policy implications and some comments on population policies are also presented in the final section.

A Case Study of Multicultural Applications of World Military Powers (세계 강군의 다문화 적용사례 연구)

  • Kim, In Chan;Cho, Sang Keun;Kim, Jong Hoon;Hong, Myung Sook;Bang, Dong Hyup;Park, Sang Hyuk
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.441-447
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    • 2022
  • The Republic of Korea Army predicted that the continuous decline in fertility rate and the low birth rate, one of the biggest issues in our society, would lead to a security crisis due to a lack of military personnel, and revised the Military Service Act in 2010 to prevent enlistment of 'clearly mixed races', which had previously restricted enlistment. made it compulsory As a result, 50 children from multicultural families enlisted in the military in 2011, and the Military Manpower Administration at the time predicted that more than 8,000 people would enlist every year after 2020. This poses another challenge for the Army. A lack of understanding and respect for different languages, religions, and eating habits can lead to conflict among members, which will lead to weakening of combat power. Therefore, through a case study of multicultural application by world powers, the history of success and failure of respect for multiculturalism and the current policy of respecting multiculturalism of the U.S. Army are studied to examine the direction of our army.