• Title/Summary/Keyword: 영화매출액예측

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Movie attendance and sales forecast model through big data analysis (빅데이터 분석을 통한 영화 관객수, 매출액 예측 모델)

  • Lee, Eung-hwan;Yu, Jong-Pil
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.185-194
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    • 2019
  • In the 100-year history of Korean films, Korean films have grown to more than 100 million viewers every year since 2012, and their total sales are estimated at 1 trillion. It is assumed that the influence on the popularity of Korean movies is related to 2012, when 60% of smartphone penetration rate and 30 million subscribers exceeded. As a result, before and after 2012, changes in movie boxing factor variables were needed, and the prediction model trained as a new independent variable was applied to actual data.

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Assessing Box Office Performance Using Movie Scripts Text Mining (영화 스크립트 텍스트 마이닝을 통한 흥행성과 예측)

  • Ha, Hyunsoo;Hwang, Byeong-Yeon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2016.10a
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    • pp.556-558
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    • 2016
  • 영화 흥행 실패의 리스크를 줄이기 위해 객관적인 흥행 예측 지표가 요구된다. 본 논문에서는 영화 스크립트의 텍스트를 분석하여 흥행성과를 예측하는 기법을 제안한다. 객관적인 흥행 예측 지표는 누적 관객 수와 누적 매출액으로 설정하였다. 실험은 2010년 1월 1일부터 2016년 8월까지 개봉한 영화중에서 누적 관객 수와 누적 매출액을 기준으로 상위 50위까지의 영화 스크립트를 분석하여 진행했다. 실험을 통해 영화 제작에 앞서 스크립트 분석만을 활용한 영화 흥행성과 예측이 가능함을 보였다.

Boxoffice Prediction Using Big Data (빅데이터를 이용한 박스오피스 예측)

  • Lee, Hyeong-Seok;Jeong, Gun-Mo;Lee, Min-Soo;Cheon, Jun-Hyeon;Kang, Yunjeong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2017.07a
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    • pp.358-359
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    • 2017
  • 실제 영화관에서는 매출을 최대화하기 위해 저마다의 상영관 별 다른 영화 배치 전략을 가지고 있다. 이 영화 배치 전략으로 인해 영화관의 매출이 좌지우지 된다. 여기서 가장 보편적인 기준은 박스오피스이다. 하지만 박스오피스는 과거 영화 상영의 매출액을 모아둔 것으로 개봉되지 않은 영화에 대한 정보는 가지고 있지 않다. 이 개봉되지 않은 영화에 대한 기준, 즉 박스오피스를 얼마나 정확하게 예측 할 수 있는지가 각 영화관의 경쟁력을 결정한다. 본 논문은 개봉 예정인 영화들을 분석하고 이를 통해 박스오피스를 예측는 방법을 제시하고, 실제 박스오피스와 비교, 분석하는 내용을 다룬다.

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A Study for the Drivers of Movie Box-office Performance (영화흥행 영향요인 선택에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yon Hyong;Hong, Jeong Han
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.441-452
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    • 2013
  • This study analyzed the relationship between key film and a box office record success factors based on movies released in the first quarter of 2013 in Korea. An over-fitting problem can happen if there are too many explanatory variables inserted to regression model; in addition, there is a risk that the estimator is instable when there is multi-collinearity among the explanatory variables. For this reason, optimal variable selection based on high explanatory variables in box-office performance is of importance. Among the numerous ways to select variables, LASSO estimation applied by a generalized linear model has the smallest prediction error that can efficiently and quickly find variables with the highest explanatory power to box-office performance in order.

A study on the use of a Business Intelligence system : the role of explanations (비즈니스 인텔리전스 시스템의 활용 방안에 관한 연구: 설명 기능을 중심으로)

  • Kwon, YoungOk
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.155-169
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    • 2014
  • With the rapid advances in technologies, organizations are more likely to depend on information systems in their decision-making processes. Business Intelligence (BI) systems, in particular, have become a mainstay in dealing with complex problems in an organization, partly because a variety of advanced computational methods from statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence can be applied to solve business problems such as demand forecasting. In addition to the ability to analyze past and present trends, these predictive analytics capabilities provide huge value to an organization's ability to respond to change in markets, business risks, and customer trends. While the performance effects of BI system use in organization settings have been studied, it has been little discussed on the use of predictive analytics technologies embedded in BI systems for forecasting tasks. Thus, this study aims to find important factors that can help to take advantage of the benefits of advanced technologies of a BI system. More generally, a BI system can be viewed as an advisor, defined as the one that formulates judgments or recommends alternatives and communicates these to the person in the role of the judge, and the information generated by the BI system as advice that a decision maker (judge) can follow. Thus, we refer to the findings from the advice-giving and advice-taking literature, focusing on the role of explanations of the system in users' advice taking. It has been shown that advice discounting could occur when an advisor's reasoning or evidence justifying the advisor's decision is not available. However, the majority of current BI systems merely provide a number, which may influence decision makers in accepting the advice and inferring the quality of advice. We in this study explore the following key factors that can influence users' advice taking within the setting of a BI system: explanations on how the box-office grosses are predicted, types of advisor, i.e., system (data mining technique) or human-based business advice mechanisms such as prediction markets (aggregated human advice) and human advisors (individual human expert advice), users' evaluations of the provided advice, and individual differences in decision-makers. Each subject performs the following four tasks, by going through a series of display screens on the computer. First, given the information of the given movie such as director and genre, the subjects are asked to predict the opening weekend box office of the movie. Second, in light of the information generated by an advisor, the subjects are asked to adjust their original predictions, if they desire to do so. Third, they are asked to evaluate the value of the given information (e.g., perceived usefulness, trust, satisfaction). Lastly, a short survey is conducted to identify individual differences that may affect advice-taking. The results from the experiment show that subjects are more likely to follow system-generated advice than human advice when the advice is provided with an explanation. When the subjects as system users think the information provided by the system is useful, they are also more likely to take the advice. In addition, individual differences affect advice-taking. The subjects with more expertise on advisors or that tend to agree with others adjust their predictions, following the advice. On the other hand, the subjects with more knowledge on movies are less affected by the advice and their final decisions are close to their original predictions. The advances in predictive analytics of a BI system demonstrate a great potential to support increasingly complex business decisions. This study shows how the designs of a BI system can play a role in influencing users' acceptance of the system-generated advice, and the findings provide valuable insights on how to leverage the advanced predictive analytics of the BI system in an organization's forecasting practices.