• 한국노년학
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.1063-1086
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to understand the current state of the older people's social exclusion by identifying patterns of the change in social exclusion level through a longitudinal analysis with an aim of exploring the predictors of changes. To this end, this study has adopted the panel data, the English longitudinal Study of Ageing(ELSA). The data of 7631 respondents who aged over 50 were used for the final analysis. The social exclusion of the older people was analyzed into five different sub-dimensions: social relationship; cultural activities; access to health services; financial security; and sense of loneliness. The person-centered approach that focuses on the various patterns of the trajectories of change has used semi-parametric group based model in order to estimate different trajectories among individuals. The data was analyzed using Spss 18.0 and SAS 9.2 proc traj. In results, First, semi-parametric group-based model analysis has shown that the older people are not 'homogeneous' group with similar exclusion level in every individual with same trajectories of change, but can be divided into various categories with diverse intercept and slope. Second, different trajectories in change of exclusion level help to confirm that the older people's social exclusion level increases gradually over time or remains unchanged. Third, this analysis has provided the useful guidelines to identify the high-risk groups of social exclusion. Forth, the variables that make difference in more than three dimensions include gender, age, self-perceived health, physical activity, weekly income, marital status, family relation, and beneficiary status. Implications and further suggestion were discussed.