• Title/Summary/Keyword: 안정한계

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Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

The Effects of Self-Determination on Entrepreneurial Intention in Office Workers: Focusing on the Dual Mediation of Innovativeness and Prception of the Startup Support System (직장인의 자기결정성이 창업의지에 미치는 영향: 혁신성과 창업지원정책인식의 이중매개를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Jae Sung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.75-91
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    • 2024
  • Recently, global business environment is changing dramatically along with the acceleration of technological innovation amid the war, climatic change, and geopolitical instability. Accordingly, it is difficult to predict or plan for the future as the volatility, complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty of the industrial ecosystem continue to increase. Therefore, organizations are undergoing inevitable restructuring in accordance with their survival strategy, for instance, removing marginal businesses or firing. Accordingly, office workers are seeking a startup as an alternative for their continuous economic activity amid rising anxiety factors that make them think they would lose their jobs unintentionally. Here, this study is aimed to verify through what paths office workers' self-determination influences the process of converting to a startup. For this study, an online survey was carried out, and 310 respondents' valid data were analyzed through SPSS and AMOS. To sum up the results, first, office workers' self-determination did not have significant effects on entrepreneurial intention. However, it was confirmed that self-determination had positive (+) effects on innovativeness and perception of the startup support system. This result shows that their psychology works to prepare step by step by accumulating innovative experiences and increasing perception of the startup support system from a long-term life path perspective rather than challenging startups right way. Second, innovativeness is found to have positive (+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. Also, perception of the startup support system had positive (+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. This implies that when considering startups, they are highly aware of the government's various startup support systems. Third, innovativeness is found to have positive (+) effects on perception of the startup support system. It is judged that perception of the startup support system is valid for prospective founders to exhibit their innovativeness and realize new ideas. Fourth, it was confirmed that innovativeness and perception of the startup support system mediated correlation between self-determination and entrepreneurial intention, and perception of the startup support system mediated correlation between innovativeness and entrepreneurial intention, which shows that it is a crucial factor in entrepreneurial intention. Although previous studies related to startups deal with students mostly, this study targets office workers who form a great part in economic activities, which makes it academically valuable in terms of being differentiated from others and extending the scope of research. Also, when we consider the fact that the motivation for self-determination alone fails to stimulate entrepreneurial intention and the complete mediation of innovativeness and the startup support system, it has great implications in practical aspects such as the government's human and material support systems. In the selection and analysis of samples, this study exhibits a limitation that the problem of common method bias is not completely resolved. Also, additional definitive research is needed on whether entrepreneurial intention is formed and converted into startup behavior. Academically and practically, this study deals with the relationship between humans' psychological motives and startups which has not been handled sufficiently in previous studies. The conversion of office workers to startups is expected to have effects on individuals' economic stability and the state's job creation; therefore, it needs to be investigated continuously for its great value.

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Phase Equilibria of the System Pd-Sb-Te and Its Geological Implications (팔라듐-안티몬-테루르 계(系)의 상평형(相平衡)과 지질학적(地質學的) 의의(意義))

  • Kim, Won-Sa;Chao, George Y.
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.327-335
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    • 1993
  • Phase relations in the system Pd-Sb-Te were investigated at $1000^{\circ}$, $800^{\circ}$, and $600^{\circ}C$, using the sealed-capsule technique; the quenched products were studied by reflected light microscopy, X-ray diffraction, and electron microprobe analysis. At $1000^{\circ}C$, the solid phases Pd, $Pd_{20}Sb_7$, $Pd_8Sb_3$, $Pd_{31}Sb_{12}$, and $Pd_5Sb_2$ are stable with a liquid phase that occupies most of the isothermal diagram. Additional solid phases at $800^{\circ}C$ are $Pd_5Sb_3$, PdSb, $Pd_8Te_3$, $Pd_7Te_3$, and a continuous $Pd_{20}Te_7-Pd_{20}Sb_7$ solid solution becomes stable. At $600^{\circ}$, $PdSb_2$, $Pd_{17}Te_4$, $Pd_9Te_4$, PdTe, $PdTe_2$, $Sb_2Te_3$, and Sb and continuous PdSb-PdTe and $PdTe-PdTe_2$ solid solutions are stable. All the solid phases exhibit solid solution, mainly by substitution between Sb and Te to an extent that varies with temperature of formation. The maximum substitution (at.%) of Te for Sb in the Pd-Sb phases is: 44.3 in $Pd_8Sb_3$, 52.0 in $Pd_{31}Sb_{12}$, 46.2 in $Pd_5Sb_2$ at $800^{\circ}C$; 15.3 in $Pd_5Sb_3$, 68.3 in $PdSb_2$ at $600^{\circ}C$. The maximum substitution (at.%) of Sb for Te in the Pd-Te phases is 34.5 in $Pd_5Sb_3$ at $800^{\circ}C$, and 41.6 in $Pd_7Te_3$, 5.2 in $Pd_{17}T_4$, 12.4 in $Pd_9Te_4$, and 19.1 in $PdTe_2$ at $600^{\circ}C$. Physical properties and X-ray data of the synthetic $Pd_9Te_4$, PdTe, $PdTe_2$, $Pd_8Sb_3$, PdSb, and $Sb_2Te_3$ correspond very well with those of telluropalladinite, kotulskite, merenskyite, mertieite II, sudburyite, and tellurantimony, respectively. Because X-ray powder diffraction data consistently reveal a 310 peak ($2.035{\AA}$), the $PdSb_2$ phase is most probably of cubic structure with space group $P2_13$. The X-ray powder pattern of a phase with PdSbTe composition, synthesized at $600^{\circ}C$, compares well with that of testibipalladite. Therefore, testibiopalladite may be a member of the $PdSb_2-Pd(Sb_{0.32}Te_{0.68})$ solid solution series which is cubic and $P2_13$ in symmetry. Thus the ideal fonnula for testibiopalladite, presently PdSbTe, must be revised to PdTe(Sb, Te). Borovskite($pd_3SbTe_4$) has not been found in the synthetic system in the temperature range $1000^{\circ}-600^{\circ}C$.

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Application of MicroPACS Using the Open Source (Open Source를 이용한 MicroPACS의 구성과 활용)

  • You, Yeon-Wook;Kim, Yong-Keun;Kim, Yeong-Seok;Won, Woo-Jae;Kim, Tae-Sung;Kim, Seok-Ki
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.51-56
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: Recently, most hospitals are introducing the PACS system and use of the system continues to expand. But small-scaled PACS called MicroPACS has already been in use through open source programs. The aim of this study is to prove utility of operating a MicroPACS, as a substitute back-up device for conventional storage media like CDs and DVDs, in addition to the full-PACS already in use. This study contains the way of setting up a MicroPACS with open source programs and assessment of its storage capability, stability, compatibility and performance of operations such as "retrieve", "query". Materials and Methods: 1. To start with, we searched open source software to correspond with the following standards to establish MicroPACS, (1) It must be available in Windows Operating System. (2) It must be free ware. (3) It must be compatible with PET/CT scanner. (4) It must be easy to use. (5) It must not be limited of storage capacity. (6) It must have DICOM supporting. 2. (1) To evaluate availability of data storage, we compared the time spent to back up data in the open source software with the optical discs (CDs and DVD-RAMs), and we also compared the time needed to retrieve data with the system and with optical discs respectively. (2) To estimate work efficiency, we measured the time spent to find data in CDs, DVD-RAMs and MicroPACS. 7 technologists participated in this study. 3. In order to evaluate stability of the software, we examined whether there is a data loss during the system is maintained for a year. Comparison object; How many errors occurred in randomly selected data of 500 CDs. Result: 1. We chose the Conquest DICOM Server among 11 open source software used MySQL as a database management system. 2. (1) Comparison of back up and retrieval time (min) showed the result of the following: DVD-RAM (5.13,2.26)/Conquest DICOM Server (1.49,1.19) by GE DSTE (p<0.001), CD (6.12,3.61)/Conquest (0.82,2.23) by GE DLS (p<0.001), CD (5.88,3.25)/Conquest (1.05,2.06) by SIEMENS. (2) The wasted time (sec) to find some data is as follows: CD ($156{\pm}46$), DVD-RAM ($115{\pm}21$) and Conquest DICOM Server ($13{\pm}6$). 3. There was no data loss (0%) for a year and it was stored 12741 PET/CT studies in 1.81 TB memory. In case of CDs, On the other hand, 14 errors among 500 CDs (2.8%) is generated. Conclusions: We found that MicroPACS could be set up with the open source software and its performance was excellent. The system built with open source proved more efficient and more robust than back-up process using CDs or DVD-RAMs. We believe that the operation of the MicroPACS would be effective data storage device as long as its operators develop and systematize it.

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3-D Finite element stress analysis in screw-type, cement-type, and combined-type implant fixed partial denture designs (임플란트 상부보철물의 유지형태에 따른 3차원 유한요소 응력분석)

  • Lee, Sung-Chun;Kim, Seok-Gyu
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.365-375
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    • 2009
  • Statement of problems: Stress analysis on implant components of the combined screw- and cement-retained implant prosthesis has not investigated yet. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess the load distribution characteristics of implant prostheses with the different prosthodontic retention types, such as cement-type, screw-type and combined type by using 3-dimensional finite element analysis. Material and methods: A 3-dimensional finite element model was created in which two SS II implants (Osstem Co. Ltd.) were placed in the areas of the first premolar and the first molar in the mandible, and three-unit fixed partial dentures with four different retention types were fabricated on the two SS II implants. Model 1 was a cement-retained implant restoration made on two cement-retained type abutments (Comocta abutment; Osstem Co. Ltd.), and Model 2 was a screw-retained implant restoration made on the screw-retained type abutments (Octa abutment; Osstem Co. Ltd.). Model 3 was a combined type implant restoration made on the cement-retained type abutment (Comocta abutment) for the first molar and the screw-retained type abutment (Octa abutment) for the first premolar. Lastly, Model 4 was a combined type implant restoration made on the screw-retained type abutment (Octa abutment) for the first molar and the cement-retained type abutment (Comocta abutment) for the first premolar. Average masticatory force was applied on the central fossa in a vertical direction, and on the buccal cusp in a vertical and oblique direction for each model. Von-Mises stress patterns on alveolar bone, implant body, abutment, abutment screw, and prosthetic screw around implant prostheses were evaluated through 3-dimensional finite element analysis. Results: Model 2 showed the lowest von Mises stress. In all models, the von Mises stress distribution of cortical bone, cancellous bone and implant body showed the similar pattern. Regardless of loading conditions and type of abutment system, the stress of bone was concentrated on the cortical bone. The von-Mises stress on abutment, abutment screw, and prosthetic screw showed the lower values for the screw-retained type abutment than for the cement-retained type abutment regardless of the model type. There was little reciprocal effect of the abutment system between the molar and the premolar position. For all models, buccal cusp oblique loading caused the largest stress, followed by buccal cusp vertical loading and center vertical loading. Conclusion: Within the limitation of the FEA study, the combined type implant prosthesis did not demonstrate more stress around implant components than the cement type implant prosthesis. Under the assumption of ideal passive fit, the screw-type implant prosthesis showed the east stress around implant components.

A Study on Traditional Ideology and the 'Tradition' of the Theatre company Minye in 1970s (1970년대 전통 이념과 극단 민예극장의 '전통')

  • Kim, Ki-Ran
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.45-86
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    • 2020
  • In this article, the "modernization of the tradition" constructed on the cultural politics and the way in which it appropriated in the korean theatre in the 1970s were analyzed. It is trying to reveal its implications. It is also a work to critically review the aspects of self-censorship in the korean theatre in the 70s. To that end, we looked at the theatre company Minye Theatre, which preoccupied the traditional discussions in the 1970s by creating national dramas. Until now, the evaluation of the theatre company Minye Theatre in the 1970s has focused on the achievement on the directing of Heo Gyu, who promoted the succession and transformation of tradition. However, the traditional ideology constructed in the state-led cultural politics in the 70s and the way in which it was operated cannot be evaluated only in terms of artistic achievement. The ideology of tradition is selected according to the selective criteria of the subject to appropriate tradition. What's important is that certain objects are excluded, discarded, re-elected, re-interpreted and re-recognized in the selection process of selected traditional ideology. This is the situation in the '70s, when tradition was constantly re-recognized amid differences between the decadent and the disorder that were then designated as non-cultural, and led to a new way of appropriate. The nation-led traditional discussion of the '70s legalized the tradition with stable values, one of the its way was the national literary and artistic support. Under the banner of modernization of tradition, theatre company Minye preoccupied the discussions on the tradition and presented folk drama as a new theatre. As an alternative to the crisis of korean theatre at the time, the Minye chose the method of inheriting and transforming tradition. It is noteworthy that Heo Gyu, the representative director of the theatre company Minye, recognized the succession and transformation of traditional performance as both a calling and an experiment. For Heo Gyu, tradition was accepted as an irresistible stable value and an unquestionable calling, and as a result, his performance, filled with excessive traditional practices, became overambitious, especially when it failed to reflect the present-here reality, the repeated use of traditional expression tools resulted in skilled craftsmanship, not artistic creation. The traditional ideology of the 70s unfolds in a new aspect of appropriation in the 80s. In 1986, Son Jin-Cheok, Kim Seong-nyeo, and Yoon Mun-sik, who were key members of the theatre company Minye Theatre, left the theatre to create the theatre company Michu, and secured popularity through Madangnori(popular folk yard theatre). Son Jin-Cheok's Madangnori is overbearing through satire and humor. It gained popularity by criticizing and mocking state power. On the other hand, not only the form of traditional performance, but also the university-centered Madanggeuk movement, which appropriated on the spirit of resistance from the people to its traditional values, has rapidly grown. In the field of traditional discussions of the 70s, Madanggeuk was self-born through appropriation in which the spirit of resistance of the people is used as a traditional value. Madanggeuk as well as Michu that achieved the popularization of Madangnori cannot be discussed solely by the artistic achievement of the modernization of tradition. Critics of korean theatre in response to state-led traditional discussions in the 70s was focused only on the qualitative achievement of performing arts based on artistry. I am very sorry for that. As a result, the popular resistance of the Madanggeuk and the Madangnori were established in the 'difference' with the traditions of the theatre company Minye Theatre. Theatre company Minye Theatre was an opportunity for the modernization of tradition, but the fact that it did not continuously produce significant differences. This is the meaning and limitation of the "tradition" of the theatre company Minye Theatre in the history of korean theatre in the 1970s.

Analysis of Output Constancy Checks Using Process Control Techniques in Linear Accelerators (선형가속기의 출력 특성에 대한 공정능력과 공정가능성을 이용한 통계적 분석)

  • Oh, Se An;Yea, Ji Woon;Kim, Sang Won;Lee, Rena;Kim, Sung Kyu
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.185-192
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the results for the quality assurance through a statistical analysis on the output characteristics of linear accelerators belonging to Yeungnam University Medical Center by using the Shewhart-type chart, Exponentially weighted moving average chart (EWMA) chart, and process capability indices $C_p$ and $C_{pk}$. To achieve this, we used the output values measured using respective treatment devices (21EX, 21EX-S, and Novalis Tx) by medical physicists every month from September, 2012 to April, 2014. The output characteristics of treatment devices followed the IAEA TRS-398 guidelines, and the measurements included photon beams of 6 MV, 10 MV, and 15 MV and electron beams of 4 MeV, 6 MeV, 9 MeV, 12 MeV, 16MeV, and 20 MeV. The statistical analysis was done for the output characteristics measured, and was corrected every month. The width of control limit of weighting factors and measurement values were calculated as ${\lambda}=0.10$ and L=2.703, respectively; and the process capability indices $C_p$ and $C_{pk}$ were greater than or equal to 1 for all energies of the linear accelerators (21EX, 21EX-S, and Novalis Tx). Measured values of output doses with drastic and minor changes were found through the Shewhart-type chart and EWMA chart, respectively. The process capability indices $C_p$ and $C_{pk}$ of the treatment devices in our institution were, respectively, 2.384 and 2.136 for 21EX, 1.917 and 1.682 for 21EX-S, and 2.895 and 2.473 for Novalis Tx, proving that Novalis Tx has the most stable and accurate output characteristics.

Crystalline lens'curvature change model by Accommdation (조절력에 따른 Crystalline Lens의 곡률 변화 모델)

  • Park, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Yong-Geun
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.181-187
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    • 2002
  • Curvature of Crystalline lens changes by Accommdation's change. When Accommdation gives force vertically to Crystalline lens that is elastic body, length increases for vertex direction. Density distribution and form of Crystalline lens that receive force lean to posterior surface, horizontal force of anterior surface direction is bigger more than horizontal force of posterior surface direction. But, if Accommdation begins to grow more than threshold value, expansity reaches in limit on anterior surface. This time, horizontal force of posterior surface direction is great mored more than horizontal force of anterior surface direction, thickness of posterior surface direction increases because is more than anterior surface direction. Anterior and posterior relationship thickness change difference accomplish the 2-nd funtional line(${\Delta}=B_1D+B_2D^2$) about Accommdation. Thickness (${\Delta}t_a$, ${\Delta}t_p$) difference change curved line of anterior pole-border and border-posterior pole by Accommdation is expressed as following. $${\Delta}t_a=t_a-t_{ao}=t_{max}+t_0{\exp}(-A/B)-t_{ao}$$ $${\Delta}t_p=t_p-t_{po}=t_{min}+t_0{\exp}(A/B)-t_{po}$$ The Parameter value that save in human's Crystalline lens obtain $t_{min}=1.1.06$, $t_0=-0.33$, B=9.32 in anterior, and $t_{max}=1.97$, $t_0=0.10$, B=7.96 etc. in posterior. Vertex curvature radius' change is as following Crystalline lens' anterior and posterior by Accommation $$R=R_0+R_1{\exp}(D/k)$$ The Parameter value that save in human's Crystalline lens obtain $R_{min}=5.55$, $R_1=6.87$, k=4.65 in anterior, and $R_{max}=-68.6$, $R_1=76.7$, k=308.5 in posterior, respectively.

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Proficiency Testing for the HPLC Analysis of Azoxystrobin, Imidacloprid and Methabenzthiazuron Residues in Soil (HPLC를 이용한 아족시스트로빈과 이미다클로프리드, 메타벤즈티아주론의 토양 잔류분석 숙련도시험)

  • Kim, Chan-Sub;Son, Kyeong-Ae;Gil, Geun-Hwan;Im, Geon-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.218-229
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    • 2015
  • The proficiency testing for the residue laboratories of pesticide registration was conducted in order to improve the reliability and the ability for pesticide residue analysis. On November 2012 the testing was carried out using the soil collected and kept as the moistened state for five years, which was expected to very low residue levels of pesticides. The soil was fortified with azoxystrobin, imidacloprid and methabenzthiazuron in a manner similar to prepare soil samples for indoor soil degradation test, and then sub-samples were prepared for the distribution to participants. Some of them were randomly selected for confirm of homogeneity and to ensure the stability of samples at room temperature. Samples were consisted of two soils treated as different levels, one of which was used to the assessment and another used to confirm. In addition, provided three standard solutions, respectively concentration of 10 mg/L, and untreated soil. Forty eight institutions submitted results. The medians of results were used as the assigned values for pesticide residues. Fitness for purpose standard deviation of proficiency test was calculated by applying 20% RSD as the coefficient of variation allowed in the soil residue test. Z-score was applied for evaluation of individual pesticides, and the average of the absolute value of the Z-score for the overall assessment of pesticides. Laboratories evaluated the absolute value of the Z-score less than 2 to fit the case of azoxystrobin were 48, imidacloprid and methabenzthiazuron 46.

Strengthening International Collaboration for Counter-Piracy Efforts - Focusing on Counter-Piracy Operations Off the Coast of Somalia - (해적퇴치를 위한 국제공조 확대 방안 - 소말리아 해적퇴치 방안을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Duk-Ki
    • Strategy21
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    • s.31
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    • pp.251-293
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    • 2013
  • 해적은 공해상 해상안전을 위협 한다는 점에서 '인류공동의 적'으로 규정되어 모든 국가가 이를 규제할 수 있는 보편적 관할권이 행사되는 범죄이다. 한국을 포함한 아시아 지역 국가들은 말라카해협 통항에 관해 깊은 이해관계를 갖고 있어 해적 소탕에 대한 의지가 강한 편이다. 이러한 의지는 2006년 '아시아해적퇴치정보공유센터(ReCAAP ISO)'의 창설에 밑거름이 되었으며, 아시아 지역에서 해적이 출현하면 동 센터를 통해 17개국 회원국으로 즉시 통보되고, 주변국의 해경과 해군이 유기적인 작전을 통해 해적을 효율적으로 퇴치하고 있는 모범사례다. 그러나 2009년 소말리아 내란에 따른 무정부 상태가 지속되면서 소말리아 및 아덴만에서의 해적활동이 극성을 부리기 시작했으며, 선박납치 행위가 급증하자 세계 각국에서 함정과 항공기를 파견하여 해적퇴치 활동을 전개하고 있으나 근절되지 않을 뿐만 아니라 해적의 활동해역이 확대되고 있다. 이러한 배경 하에 시작된 본 연구는 연구결과를 중심으로 다음과 같은 대응 방안을 제시한다. 첫째, 소말리아 해적의 근본원인은 국가의 붕괴에서 비롯된 치안부재와 열악한 경제사정 등 내부적인 요인이 크기 때문에 다국적 해군 활동으로 인한 근본적인 해적퇴치에는 한계가 있다. 따라서 국제적인 차원에서 '지역협력협정'체결은 물론, 소말리아 국가재건을 위한 노력이 함께 이루어지는 종합적인 대책이 필요하다. 그러나 보다 더 근본적인 해결책은 유엔차원에서 빠른 시간 내에 소말리아가 정치적 안정을 유지할 수 있도록 정치적 차원에서의 지원이 필요하며, 해적과 테러리스트가 연계됨으로써 국제문제로 확대되지 않도록 하는 노력도 병행되어야 한다. 둘째, 해적문제는 특정국가에만 해당되는 것이 아니라 초국가적인 문제임을 감안하여 유엔안전보장이사회 결의 제1851호에서 '지역 센터' 설립을 권고하고 있는 것처럼 2006년 아시아 국가들이 설치한 ReCAAP ISO와 같은 형태의 지역국가 간 협력기구 또는 유엔 차원의 해적 전담기구를 설치하여 국제사회 공조 하에 해적에 대처하는 방안을 추진하는 것이 필요하다. 셋째, 최근 발생하고 있는 해적행위는 주로 항구 등 내수, 영해 등 연안국의 관할권이 행사되는 지역에서 발생하고 있어 유엔해양법상의 규정은 이러한 '해적' 퇴치에 더 이상 효율적이지 못하다. 국제사회는 이러한 문제점을 인식하여 국제해사기구 (IMO) 등 국제기구를 통해 영해내의 해적 처벌을 위해 최선의 노력을 기울이고 있다. 향후 궁극적으로는 유엔해양법협약의 개정을 통해 법적인 문제점이 개선되어야 한다. 넷째, 전술적인 측면에서도 지상에 기지를 두고 있는 해적들의 지도부가 그 동안 쌓아 놓은 네트워크를 이용하여 다국적 해군에 대한 정보를 수집하고 대응방안을 강구함으로써 나름대로의 생존전략을 구사할 것으로 예상된다. 특히, 선박을 납치한 후 소말리아 연안으로 이동하면서 해군함정과 대치하는 과정에서 해적들이 살상을 당하는 사례가 증가함에 따라 지금까지는 피랍된 선박의 선원을 단순히 해적활동에 참여시키거나, 항해지원을 위한 목적 등으로만 활용했는데, 앞으로는 해적들의 인명피해를 최소화하기 위해서라도 선원들을 방패막이로 활용할 가능성이 더욱 높아질 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 참가하는 해군함정 또는 부대간 해적들의 활동 관련 정보를 공유하는 등 사전에 정보를 획득하기 위한 협력을 강화해야 한다. 다섯째, 한국군함이 삼호주얼리호를 납치했던 소말리아 해적을 한국까지 대리고 와서 처벌하는 것은 불합리하고, 많은 문제점을 야기할 수 있기 때문에 향후 해적처벌을 위한 국제사법기구의 설치가 요구된다. 회원국 분담금으로 운영되는 유엔에 산하기관을 설치하여 소말리아 인접국에서 해결하도록 적극적인 노력을 경주할 필요가 있다. 마지막으로, 선박회사에서도 자국 선박이 위험구역으로 지정된 해역을 항해할 경우를 대비해서 선박자동식별 시스템 구축을 확대하고, 해적이 선박에 승선했을 경우를 대비해서 안전구역(citadel)을 설치하여 선원의 안전을 확보하는 등의 대책이 필요하다. 본 연구를 통해 해양안보는 어느 특정국가에게만 주어진 것이 아니며, 해적행위도 특정 국가의 선박을 대상으로 하는 것이 아니므로 각국 정부간 공동의 협력과 국제사회의 공조가 반드시 실현될 때 해적의 위협으로부터 선박의 안전과 국제사회의 평화가 실현될 수 있다는 것을 강조하고자 한다.

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