• Title/Summary/Keyword: 안전한 기계 학습

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Estimation Model for Freight of Container Ships using Deep Learning Method (딥러닝 기법을 활용한 컨테이너선 운임 예측 모델)

  • Kim, Donggyun;Choi, Jung-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.574-583
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    • 2021
  • Predicting shipping markets is an important issue. Such predictions form the basis for decisions on investment methods, fleet formation methods, freight rates, etc., which greatly affect the profits and survival of a company. To this end, in this study, we propose a shipping freight rate prediction model for container ships using gated recurrent units (GRUs) and long short-term memory structure. The target of our freight rate prediction is the China Container Freight Index (CCFI), and CCFI data from March 2003 to May 2020 were used for training. The CCFI after June 2020 was first predicted according to each model and then compared and analyzed with the actual CCFI. For the experimental model, a total of six models were designed according to the hyperparameter settings. Additionally, the ARIMA model was included in the experiment for performance comparison with the traditional analysis method. The optimal model was selected based on two evaluation methods. The first evaluation method selects the model with the smallest average value of the root mean square error (RMSE) obtained by repeating each model 10 times. The second method selects the model with the lowest RMSE in all experiments. The experimental results revealed not only the improved accuracy of the deep learning model compared to the traditional time series prediction model, ARIMA, but also the contribution in enhancing the risk management ability of freight fluctuations through deep learning models. On the contrary, in the event of sudden changes in freight owing to the effects of external factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the accuracy of the forecasting model reduced. The GRU1 model recorded the lowest RMSE (69.55, 49.35) in both evaluation methods, and it was selected as the optimal model.

An Improvement Study on the Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) for Rainfall Impact Forecasting (호우 영향예보를 위한 수문학적 정량강우예측(HQPF) 개선 연구)

  • Yoon Hu Shin;Sung Min Kim;Yong Keun Jee;Young-Mi Lee;Byung-Sik Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.87-98
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    • 2022
  • In recent years, frequent localized heavy rainfalls, which have a lot of rainfall in a short period of time, have been increasingly causing flooding damages. To prevent damage caused by localized heavy rainfalls, Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) was developed using the Local ENsemble prediction System (LENS) provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and Machine Learning and Probability Matching (PM) techniques using Digital forecast data. HQPF is produced as information on the impact of heavy rainfall to prepare for flooding damage caused by localized heavy rainfalls, but there is a tendency to overestimate the low rainfall intensity. In this study, we improved HQPF by expanding the period of machine learning data, analyzing ensemble techniques, and changing the process of Probability Matching (PM) techniques to improve predictive accuracy and over-predictive propensity of HQPF. In order to evaluate the predictive performance of the improved HQPF, we performed the predictive performance verification on heavy rainfall cases caused by the Changma front from August 27, 2021 to September 3, 2021. We found that the improved HQPF showed a significantly improved prediction accuracy for rainfall below 10 mm, as well as the over-prediction tendency, such as predicting the likelihood of occurrence and rainfall area similar to observation.

Preliminary Inspection Prediction Model to select the on-Site Inspected Foreign Food Facility using Multiple Correspondence Analysis (차원축소를 활용한 해외제조업체 대상 사전점검 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Hae Jin Park;Jae Suk Choi;Sang Goo Cho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.121-142
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    • 2023
  • As the number and weight of imported food are steadily increasing, safety management of imported food to prevent food safety accidents is becoming more important. The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety conducts on-site inspections of foreign food facilities before customs clearance as well as import inspection at the customs clearance stage. However, a data-based safety management plan for imported food is needed due to time, cost, and limited resources. In this study, we tried to increase the efficiency of the on-site inspection by preparing a machine learning prediction model that pre-selects the companies that are expected to fail before the on-site inspection. Basic information of 303,272 foreign food facilities and processing businesses collected in the Integrated Food Safety Information Network and 1,689 cases of on-site inspection information data collected from 2019 to April 2022 were collected. After preprocessing the data of foreign food facilities, only the data subject to on-site inspection were extracted using the foreign food facility_code. As a result, it consisted of a total of 1,689 data and 103 variables. For 103 variables, variables that were '0' were removed based on the Theil-U index, and after reducing by applying Multiple Correspondence Analysis, 49 characteristic variables were finally derived. We build eight different models and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold cross validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated. The research purpose of selecting companies subject to on-site inspection is to maximize the recall, which is the probability of judging nonconforming companies as nonconforming. As a result of applying various algorithms of machine learning, the Random Forest model with the highest Recall_macro, AUROC, Average PR, F1-score, and Balanced Accuracy was evaluated as the best model. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the selection reason for nonconforming facilities of individual instances, and discuss applicability to the on-site inspection facility selection system. Based on the results of this study, it is expected that it will contribute to the efficient operation of limited resources such as manpower and budget by establishing an imported food management system through a data-based scientific risk management model.

원자로내 용융물 재배치시 용기 하부의 온도 거동

  • Kang, Kyung-Ho;Kim, Jong-Hwan;Kim, Sang-Baek;Kim, Hui-Dong;Kim, Hyun-Seop;Heo, Hun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1997.05a
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    • pp.581-586
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    • 1997
  • 중대사고시 노심의 손상에 의한 노심용융물이 원자로 용기 하부 반구로 재배치될 때 고온의 노심용융물에 의한 열적 부하로 원자로 용기의 파손을 일으키게 된다. 원자로 용기하부 반구 내에서의 노심용융물의 열적 거동 및 하부 반구에 대한 열적 부하에 대한 분석은 용융물의 성분 및 재배치 과정의 복잡성 등으로 인한 실험적 모사의 한계성 및 현상 분석의 난이함에도 불구하고 기존 원자로의 중대사고에 대한 안전 여유도의 제고와 이에 따른 노내외 사고 관리 전략의 수립을 위하여 연구의 필요성이 제기된다. 본 연구에서는 노심용융물 냉각연구(SONATA-IV)의 예비 실험으로 노심용융물의 상사물로 $Al_2$O$_3$/Fe Thermite 용융물을 이용하여 실제 원자로 용기 하부 반구를 1/8 로 선형 축소한 반구형 실험 용기로 주입하는 실험을 수행하였다. 아울러 원자로 용기 하부 반구로 재배치된 노심용융물에 의한 열적, 기계적 부하에 대한 분석을 수행하기 개발된 유한 요소 프로그램인 CALF (Computer Analysis for Lower Head Failure ) 코드를 이용한 하부 반구의 열적 거동에 대한 해석 결과를 정리하였다. 용융물 주입 실험 결과 용융물 주입과 동시에 하부 반구에 직경 5cm 크기의 하부 반구 파손이 발생하였다. 이는 고온 용융물에 의한 제트류(Jet Impingement)의 효과로 생각된다 동일한 조건에서 CALF 코드로 하부 반구의 열적 거동을 분석하였는데, 실험과는 달리 하부 반구의 파손이 발생하지 않았다 이같은 해석 결과는 용융물의 제트류 효과가 존재하지 않는다면 고온의 용융물이 하부 반구 내로 재배치되더라도 하부 반구의 파손이 발생하지 않는다는 것을 보여준다.>$_3$ 흡착제 제조시 TiO$_2$ 함량에 따른 Co$^{2+}$ 흡착량과 25$0^{\circ}C$의 고온에서 ZrO$_2$$Al_2$O$_3$의 표면에 생성된 코발트 화합물을 XPS와 EPMA로 부터 확인하였다.인을 명시적으로 설명할 수 있다. 둘째, 오류의 시발점을 정확히 포착하여 동기가 분명한 수정대책을 강구할 수 있다. 셋째, 음운 과 정의 분석 모델은 새로운 언어 학습시에 관련된 언어 상호간의 구조적 마찰을 설명해 줄 수 있다. 넷째, 불규칙적이며 종잡기 힘들고 단편적인 것으로만 보이던 중간언어도 일정한 체계 속에서 변화한다는 사실을 알 수 있다. 다섯째, 종전의 오류 분석에서는 지나치게 모국어의 영향만 강조하고 다른 요인들에 대해서는 다분히 추상적인 언급으로 끝났지만 이 분석을 통 해서 배경어, 목표어, 특히 중간규칙의 역할이 괄목할 만한 것임을 가시적으로 관찰할 수 있 다. 이와 같은 오류분석 방법은 학습자의 모국어 및 관련 외국어의 음운규칙만 알면 어느 학습대상 외국어에라도 적용할 수 있는 보편성을 지니는 것으로 사료된다.없다. 그렇다면 겹의문사를 [-wh]의리를 지 닌 의문사의 병렬로 분석할 수 없다. 예를 들어 누구누구를 [주구-이-ν가] [누구누구-이- ν가]로부터 생성되었다고 볼 수 없다. 그러므로 [-wh] 겹의문사는 복수 의미를 지닐 수 없 다. 그러면 단수 의미는 어떻게 생성되는가\ulcorner 본 논문에서는 표면적 형태에도 불구하고 [-wh]의미의 겹의문사는 병렬적 관계의 합성어가 아니라 내부구조를 지니지 않은 단순한 단어(minim

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Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

A Research on Blockchain-based Copyright Protection for Computational Creativity (컴퓨터적 창의력을 위한 블록체인 기반 저작권 보호 연구)

  • Lee, Eun Mi
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2018
  • Computational creativity is a field of artificial intelligence research to replicate creativity of human beings, creating works in various fields or helping human authors. The copyright of works produced by computational creativity has not been established in most countries yet, however, there will be the need for systems to protect the copyrights with the development of the technology in the future. In this paper, we propose a copyright protection system based on blockchain technology that protects the copyright of various contributors contributing to the creation of computer creative creativity, and transparently and safely records the contribution of copyrighted works. The proposed system records the contribution of all related works from the machine learning of computer creativity to the creation of the final work on the blockchain so that it is possible to establish quantitative evaluation criteria for the copyright when the future copyright law system is revised.

Improved Environment Recognition Algorithms for Autonomous Vehicle Control (자율주행 제어를 위한 향상된 주변환경 인식 알고리즘)

  • Bae, Inhwan;Kim, Yeounghoo;Kim, Taekyung;Oh, Minho;Ju, Hyunsu;Kim, Seulki;Shin, Gwanjun;Yoon, Sunjae;Lee, Chaejin;Lim, Yongseob;Choi, Gyeungho
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2019
  • This paper describes the improved environment recognition algorithms using some type of sensors like LiDAR and cameras. Additionally, integrated control algorithm for an autonomous vehicle is included. The integrated algorithm was based on C++ environment and supported the stability of the whole driving control algorithms. As to the improved vision algorithms, lane tracing and traffic sign recognition were mainly operated with three cameras. There are two algorithms developed for lane tracing, Improved Lane Tracing (ILT) and Histogram Extension (HIX). Two independent algorithms were combined into one algorithm - Enhanced Lane Tracing with Histogram Extension (ELIX). As for the enhanced traffic sign recognition algorithm, integrated Mutual Validation Procedure (MVP) by using three algorithms - Cascade, Reinforced DSIFT SVM and YOLO was developed. Comparing to the results for those, it is convincing that the precision of traffic sign recognition is substantially increased. With the LiDAR sensor, static and dynamic obstacle detection and obstacle avoidance algorithms were focused. Therefore, improved environment recognition algorithms, which are higher accuracy and faster processing speed than ones of the previous algorithms, were proposed. Moreover, by optimizing with integrated control algorithm, the memory issue of irregular system shutdown was prevented. Therefore, the maneuvering stability of the autonomous vehicle in severe environment were enhanced.

Analysis of Occupational Injury and Feature Importance of Fall Accidents on the Construction Sites using Adaboost (에이다 부스트를 활용한 건설현장 추락재해의 강도 예측과 영향요인 분석)

  • Choi, Jaehyun;Ryu, HanGuk
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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    • v.35 no.11
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 2019
  • The construction industry is the highest safety accident causing industry as 28.55% portion of all industries' accidents in Korea. In particular, falling is the highest accidents type composed of 60.16% among the construction field accidents. Therefore, we analyzed the factors of major disaster affecting the fall accident and then derived feature importances by considering various variables. We used data collected from Korea Occupational Safety & Health Agency (KOSHA) for learning and predicting in the proposed model. We have an effort to predict the degree of occupational fall accidents by using the machine learning model, i.e., Adaboost, short for Adaptive Boosting. Adaboost is a machine learning meta-algorithm which can be used in conjunction with many other types of learning algorithms to improve performance. Decision trees were combined with AdaBoost in this model to predict and classify the degree of occupational fall accidents. HyOperpt was also used to optimize hyperparameters and to combine k-fold cross validation by hierarchy. We extracted and analyzed feature importances and affecting fall disaster by permutation technique. In this study, we verified the degree of fall accidents with predictive accuracy. The machine learning model was also confirmed to be applicable to the safety accident analysis in construction site. In the future, if the safety accident data is accumulated automatically in the network system using IoT(Internet of things) technology in real time in the construction site, it will be possible to analyze the factors and types of accidents according to the site conditions from the real time data.

가상 개발환경 기반의 차량용 사이버훈련 프레임워크 설계: 공격 중심으로

  • YoungBok Jo;Subin Choi;OH ByeongYun;YongHo Choi;Hojun Kim;Seonghoon Jeong;Byung Il Kwak;Mee Lan Han
    • Review of KIISC
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2023
  • 대부분의 임베디드 시스템은 기계장치와 전자기기 장치가 함께 작동되는 물리 장치로써, 이기종 네트워크, 복잡한 보안체계 등을 고려하여 가상화 기반 사이버훈련 환경이 구성되어야 한다. 또한, 차량을 대상으로 물리적인 실험환경에서 모의침투 등 사이버훈련을 수행한다는 것은 교통사고를 비롯한 안전사고 발생에 있어 위험이 존재한다. 본 논문에서는 가상 개발환경에서의 공격 기반 차량용 사이버훈련 프레임워크를 제안하고자 한다. 먼저, 공격 기반 차량용 사이버훈련 프레임워크의 작동은 자동 활성화되는 가상의 CAN 네트워크 인터페이스로 시작된다. 가상의 CAN 네트워크 인터페이스는 가상 머신에서 간단한 부트스트랩 명령어 실행을 통해 파이썬 패키지와 Ubuntu 서비스 목록 설치 명령이 자동으로 실행되면서 설치된다. 이후 내부 네트워크 시뮬레이터와 공격모듈과 관련된 UI가 자동으로 Ubuntu Systemd에 의해 백그라운드에서 실행되어 시작과 동시에 준비 상태를 유지하게 된다. 사이버훈련 UI 내 공격 모듈은 사용자에 의한 공격 선택 및 파라미터 셋팅 이후 차량의 이상 상태를 사이버훈련 UI에 다시 출력되게 된다. 본 논문에서 제안하는 가상 개발환경 기반의 차량용 사이버훈련 프레임워크는 자율주행 차량 사고의 위험이나 다른 특수한 제약 없이 사용자의 학습 경험을 확장시킬 수 있다. 또한, 기존의 가상화 기반 사이버훈련 교육 콘텐츠와는 달리 일반 사용자들이 접근하기 쉬운 형태로 확장 개발이 가능하다.

Development of the Artificial Intelligence Literacy Education Program for Preservice Secondary Teachers (예비 중등교사를 위한 인공지능 리터러시 교육 프로그램 개발)

  • Bong Seok Jang
    • Journal of Practical Engineering Education
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    • v.16 no.1_spc
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    • pp.65-70
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    • 2024
  • As the interest in AI education grows, researchers have made efforts to implement AI education programs. However, research targeting pre-service teachers has been limited thus far. Therefore, this study was conducted to develop an AI literacy education program for preservice secondary teachers. The research results revealed that the weekly topics included the definition and applications of AI, analysis of intelligent agents, the importance of data, understanding machine learning, hands-on exercises on prediction and classification, hands-on exercises on clustering and classification, hands-on exercises on unstructured data, understanding deep learning, application of deep learning algorithms, fairness, transparency, accountability, safety, and social integration. Through this research, it is hoped that AI literacy education programs for preservice teachers will be expanded. In the future, it is anticipated that follow-up studies will be conducted to implement relevant education in teacher training institutions and analyze its effectiveness.