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Risk Analysis of Household Debt in Korea: Using Micro CB Data (개인CB 자료를 이용한 우리나라 가계의 부채상환위험 분석)

  • Hahm, Joon-Ho;Kim, Jung In;Lee, Young Sook
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • We conduct a comprehensive risk analysis of household debt in Korea for the first time using the whole sample credit bureau (CB) data of 2.2 million individual debtors. After analysing debt service capacity profiles of debtor groups classified by the borrower characteristics such as income, age, occupation, credit scoring, and the type of creditor business companies, we investigate the impact of interest rate and income changes on debt service-to-income ratios (DTIs) and default rates of respective debtor groups. Empirical results indicate that debt service burdens are relatively high for low income wage earners, high income self-employed, low income capital and card loan holders, and high income mutual savings loan holders. We also find that debtors from multiple financial companies are particularly weak in their debt service capacity. The scenario analysis indicates that financial companies, with the current level of capital buffers, may be able to absorb negative consequences arising from the increase in DTIs and loan default rates if the interest rate and income changes remain modest. However, the negative consequences may fall disproportionately on non-bank financial companies such as capital, credit card, and mutual savings banks, whose debtors' DTIs are already high. We also find that the refinancing risk of household debt is relatively high in Korea as more than half of household mortgage debts are bullet loans. As the DTIs of mortgage loan holders are already high, under the current DTI regulation, mortgage loans may not be readily refinanced especially when the interest rate rises. Disruptions in mortgage loan refinancing may put downward pressure on housing prices, which may in turn magnify refinancing risk under the current loan-to-value (LTV) regulation. Overall our analysis suggests that, for more effective monitoring of household debt risk, it is necessary to combine existing surveillance schemes based on macro aggregate indicators with more comprehensive and detailed risk analyses based on micro individual data.

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Risk Analysis for the Harvesting Stage of Tomato Farms to Establish the Good Agriculture Practices(GAP) (GAP 모델 확립을 위한 토마토 농장 수확단계의 위해요소 조사 및 분석)

  • Lee, Chae-Won;Lee, Chi-Yeop;Heo, Rok-Won;Kim, Kyeong-Yeol;Shim, Won-Bo;Shim, Sang-In;Chung, Duck-Hwa
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.141-153
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    • 2012
  • Samples collected from six tomato farms(A, B, C : soil culture, D, E, F : Nutriculture) located in Gyeongsangnam-do were tested for the analyses of biological(sanitary indications, major foodborne pathogens, fungi), chemical(heavy metals, pesticides) and physical hazards. The highest levels of total bacteria(7.5 log CFU/g) and coliforms(5.0 log CFU/g) in soil culture farms were higher than those of nutriculture farms(total bacteria: 2.5 log CFU/mL, coliforms: 0.6 log CFU/mL). In crops and personal hygiene soil culture farms showed a slightly higher contamination levels. From all farms, the levels of fungi in soil farms were higher than those of nutrient solution. In case of major pathogens, Bacillus cereus and Staphylococcus aureus were detected in all sample with the exception of nutrient solution. Meantime, Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, E.coli O157 and Salmonella spp. were not detected. For airborne bacteria, soilculture farms showed less contamination than nutriculture farms. A piece of glass and can was confirmed asphysical hazards. Heavy metal(Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr, Hg, Zn, Ni and As) and pesticide residues as chemical hazards were detected, but their levels were lower than the regulation limit. These results demonstrate that potential hazards on harvesting stage of tomato fam were exposed. Therefore, proper management is needed to prevent biological hazards due to cross-contamination, while physical and chemical hazards were in appropriate levels based on GAP criteria.

Analysis of Microbiological Contamination in Cultivation and Distribution Stage of Melon

  • Park, Kyeong-Hun;Yun, Hye-Jeong;Kim, Won-Il;Kang, Jun-Won;Millner, Patricia D.;Micallef, Shirley A.;Kim, Byeong-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.615-622
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate microbial contamination of melons in Korea. A total of 123 samples including melon fruits, leaves, seeds, soils, and irrigation water were collected from farms and markets to detect total aerobic bacteria, coliform, Escherichia coli, and pathogenic bacteria such as Bacillus cereus, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., and Staphylococcus aureus. Samples were collected from Iksan and Nonsan farms to monitor bacterial levels on pre-market melons. The total aerobic and coliform bacteria on melon cultivation were between 0.43 and 6.65 log CFU $g^{-1}$, and 0.67 and 2.91 log CFU $g^{-1}$, respectively. Bacillus cereus, a fecal coliform, was detected in soils and melon leaves from Iksan farm at 2.95, 0.73 log CFU $g^{-1}$, respectively, and in soils from Nonsan farm at 3.16 log CFU $g^{-1}$. Market melon samples were collected to assay bacterial load on melon being sold to consumers. The contamination levels of total aerobic bacteria in agricultural markets, big-box retailers, and traditional markets were 4.82, 3.94, 3.99 log CFU $g^{-1}$, respectively. The numbers of coliform in melon on the markets ranged from 0.09 to 0.49 log CFU $g^{-1}$. Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., and Staphylococcus aureus were not detected in any samples. The count of total aerobic bacteria on melon seeds ranged from 0.33 to 3.34 log CFU $g^{-1}$. This study found that irrigation water, soil, manure and various farm work activities including post-harvest processes were latent sources of microbial contamination. These results suggest that hygienic management and monitoring of soil, water, and agricultural material should be performed to reduce microbial contamination in melon production.

Early Clinical Experience in Valve Replacement Using On-X Prosthetic Heart Valve (On-X 기계판막을 이용한 판막치환술의 단기성적분석)

  • 김인섭;김우식;신용철;유환국;김병열;정성철
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.37 no.9
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    • pp.742-748
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    • 2004
  • The On-X valve was recently introduced. It was the aim of this study to assess the safety and feasibility from the data derived from 28 patients who underwent aortic and/or mitral valve replacement with this prosthesis in National Medical Center. Material and Method: From May 1999 and May 2003, a series of 28 consecutive patients who had been implanted with 32 On-X prosthesis were reviewed, The operative procedure comprised of 12 MVR, 10 AVR and 6 DVR. The study followed the guidelines of AATS/STS. Mean follow-up was 27 months (total 04 patient-years). Result: Early ($\leq$30 days) mortality was 7.44% (2/28) and no late mortality occurred in the study. Total actuarial freedom from mortality at 2 years was 92.86$\pm$4.87% for all cases, 100% for MVR, 90$\pm$9.49% for AVR, and 83.3$\pm$1.52% for DVR. Thromboembolic event occurred in 2 MVR patients and that was the only complication; therefore, the linearized incidence of valve related complications was 3.17%/ patient-years for all cases and 6.5%/patient-years for MVR and the actuarial freedom from valve related complications at 2 years was 84.85$\pm$10.75%. Preoperatively, 24 (85.71%) patients were in NYHA functional class III or IV but postoperatively, 25 (89,29%) patients were in NYHA functional class I or II. The levels of hemoglobin, hematocrit, serum LDH, reticulocyte rate and indirect bilirubin were all within normal range at postoperative 3 month. In mitral position, the peak gradient was 6.1$\pm$1.8 mmHg and the mean gradient was 3.0$\pm$0.6 mmHg and EOA were 2.54$\pm$0.56 $m^2$, 2.39$\pm$0.73 $m^2$, 2.34$\pm$0.55 $m^2$, 2.40$\pm$0.63 $m^2$ at 27 mm, 29 mm, 31 mm, 33 mm respectively. In aortic postion, the peak gradient was 21.1 $\pm$14.12 mmHg and the mean gradient was 12.3$\pm$6.52 mmHg. Conclusion: Since there was no significant difference in the postoperative mortality, valve related complications and echocardiographic hemodynamic data compared to standard bileaflet design and since there was an improvement in the NYHA functional class and normal values of hemolytic indicators, it can be assumed that On-X valve is safe and feasible. However, accumulation of cases and long-term follow-up of this patient group is needed to establish this result.

A Clinical Analysis on the Restoration of Sinus Rhythm Following Mitral Valve Surgery (승모판 수술 후 동율동 회복에 관한 임상분석)

  • 백완기;심상석;김현태;조상록;진성훈
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.347-352
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    • 1999
  • Background: The atrial fibrillation in patients with mitral valvular heart disease is frequently converted to sinus rhythm after the mitral valve surgery. This sinus restoration implies an important meaning in that it not only helps postoperative convalescence in patients with unstable hemodynamics but also reduces the rate of postoperative thromboembolism. Material and Method: We retrospectively analyzed 184 patients who received mitral valve surgery from June 1986 to December 1996 to investigate the trend of rhythm change following mitral valve surgery and thus to clarify the predisposing factors of postoperative sinus rhythm conversion and its maintenance. Result: The sinus rhythm was restored after the operation in 54 out of 139 patients with atrial fibrillation preoperatively(38.8%). However, the atrial fibrillation recurred in 41 patients at the time of discharge showing a recurrence rate of 75.9 percent. The mean duration of sinus rhythm in patients with eventual atrial fibrillation recurrence was 8.2${\pm}$5.9 days. Only 15 patients were in sinus rhythm at the time of late follow-up with the mean follow-up period of 84.4${\pm}$34.7 months. While the age, duration of symptoms, duration of atrial fibrillation, left atral size, and pulmonary artery pressure were thought to be the predisposing factors for sinus conversion after the operation, only the duration of atrial fibrillation and ejection fraction were considered risk factors for the recurrence of the atrial fibrillation following sinus conversion. Conclusion: This study suggests that the early operation is mandatory for the satisfactory result regarding postoperative rhythm. Moreover, additional operative measure in adjunct to the intervention of mitral valve should be considered for the maintenance of restored sinus rhythm as reflected by high postoperative recurrence rate of atrial fibrillation.

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Differences in Thrombolytic Effects in Accordance with Dosing-regimens of Tissue-type Plasminogen Activator in Experimental Pulmonary Embolism (실험적 폐색전증에서 조직형플라스미노겐활성체의 투여방법에 따른 혈전용해효과의 차이)

  • Chung, Hee-Soon;Kim, Ho-Jung;Han, Yong-Chol
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.123-134
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    • 1993
  • Background: Tissue-type plasminogen activator is a physiologic activator, which has high affinity for fibrin and is activated by fibrin. Because of these properties, t-PA has the potential to induce effective thrombolysis without producing a systemic lytic state. In practice, however, therapeutically efficacious doses of t-PA has been associated with the development of a systemic lytic state. As experience with t-PA has accumulated, it has suggested that the fibrin selectivity is influenced by the dose and duration of t-PA infusion, and many studies have performed in an attempt to optimize the duration of t-PA regimen. Methods: This study was designed to assess the thrombolytic efficacy of t-PA and the differences of two dosing regimens of t-PA (infusion of 1 mg/kg t-PA over 15 or 180 minutes) in a canine model of pulmonary embolism, induced by injection of radioactive autologous blood clots. By continuously counting over both lung fields with a external gamma counter, we correlated rate and extent of pulmonary thrombolysis with corresponding pulmonary hemodynamics in addition to the gas analyses of arterial and mixed venous blood. Results: 1) While total clot lysis was similar ($36.2{\pm}3.3%$ and $39.6{\pm}2.3%$ respectively, p>0.05) when t-PA was infused over 15 or 180 minutes, the rate of lysis during infusion was markedly increased with the shorter infusion ($81.4{\pm}16.8%/hr$ vs $37.3{\pm}2.4%/hr$, p<0.05). 2) The duration of thrombolysis was $63.3{\pm}22.2$ minutes although t-PA was administered over 15 minutes, and it was only $148.5{\pm}14.0$ minutes in case of the infusion over 180 minutes (p<0.05). 3) The increased rate of thrombolysis with the shorter infusion was accompanied by a faster amelioration of cardiopulmonary impairment from pulmonary embolism (p<0.05). Conclusion: It is concluded that the shorter (15 minutes) infusion of t-PA is superior to the longer (180 minutes) infusion when the dose is equal, in consideration of the faster improvement in cardiopulmonary impairment from pulmonary embolism.

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Analysis of Application of Massive Transfusion Protocol for Trauma Patients at a Single Tertiary Referral Hospital (단일 3차 의료기관에서 외상환자에 대한 대량수혈 프로토콜 적용 분석)

  • Kim, Hyerin;Yoo, Dong-Won;Kim, Hyerim;Shin, Kyung-Hwa;Lee, Hyun-Ji;Chang, Chulhun L.;Kim, Hyung-Hoi
    • The Korean Journal of Blood Transfusion
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.262-272
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    • 2018
  • Background: Massive hemorrhage due to trauma is one of the major causes of death in trauma patients, and the quick supply of appropriate blood products is critical in order to reduce the mortality rate. We introduced a massive transfusion protocol (MTP) for safe and rapid transfusion of trauma patients. Using records collected since its adoption, we compared the characteristics of MTP applied group (MTP group) and MTP not applied group (non-MTP group) to determine whether there is an indicator for predicting patients to be treated with MTP. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the electronic medical records and laboratory findings of patients who received massive transfusions in the trauma emergency room of a single tertiary hospital from February to August 2018. We analyzed various laboratory test results, the amount and ratio of the transfused blood products, and the time required for blood products to be released for the MTP group and the non-MTP group. Results: Of the 54 trauma patients who received massive transfusions, 31 were in the MTP group and 22 in the non-MTP group. There was no significant difference in initial vital signs (except blood pressure) and laboratory test results. Also there was no difference in the amount and ratio of blood products, but the time required for blood product release was shorter in the MTP group. Conclusion: There was no significant difference in clinical findings such as initial vital signs and laboratory test results between the MTP and non-MTP groups, but required blood products were prepared and released more quickly for the MTP group.

Studies on Controlling Mixed Annual and Perennial Weeds in Paddy Fields - On the Herbicidal Properties of Perfluidone - (수종(數種) 다년생잡초혼생답(多年生雜草混生沓)에 있어서 제초제(除草劑)에 의한 효과적(效果的)인 잡초방제(雜草防除) - Perfluidone의 작용특성구명(作用特性究明)을 중심(中心)으로 -)

  • Ryang, H.S.;Han, S.S.
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.75-99
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    • 1983
  • The herbicidal properties of perfluidone [1,1,1-trifluoro-N-2-methyl-4-(phenylsulponyl) phenyl methanesulfonamide] were investigated in pots and paddy fields. At the rate of 2.0kg prod./10a, perfluidone did not cause any injury to the 4 leaf stage (LS) rice seedlings. Although the crop injury increased with increasing the application rate, the injury caused by 16kg prod. perfluidone/10a gave rise to only 30% yield reduction. The crop injury was greatest when perfluidone was applied 2 days before transplanting and decreased as the application time delayed. Perfluidone showed greater crop injury to the 3 LS seedlings, at more than 7cm water depth, and at high temperature than to the 4 LS seedlings, at 3-5cm water depth, and at low temperature. Indica and indica ${\times}$ japonica rice varieties were generally more sensitive to perfluidone than japonica rice variety. Perfluidone effectively controlled most of annual weeds and such perennial weeds as Sagittaria pygmaea MIQ., Potamogeton distinctus A. BENN, Cyperus serotinus ROTTB, Scirpus maritimus L., Eleocharis kuroguwai OHWL, and Scirpus hotarui OHWL, whereas Sagittaria trifolia L. and Polygonum hydropiper SPACH. were tolerent to perfluidone. The weeding effect decreased with increasing the leaching amount of water and the overflowing of irrigated water within 24 hours after the herbicide application. When the application time was done later than 8 days after transplanting, the perennial weeds were shown at deeper soil layers, and the standing water was deeper than 7cm, the effect tended to decrease. However, there was no difference in the weeding effect between soil types. Downward movement of perfluidone in flooded soil ranged from 2 to 8cm deep. The movement increased with increasing the leaching amount of water and the application rate and at a sandy loam soil which possessed less adsorptive capacity. Residual effect of perfluidone was found at 35 to 80 days after application, which varied such factors as Soil types. Increase in the leaching amount of water resulted in decrease in the period of the residual effect. The period was shorter at non-sterilized soil than at sterilized soil. The 0.75kg ai perfluidone + 1.5kg ai SL-49 (1,3-dimethyl-6-(2,4-dichlor-benzoyl)-5-phenacyloxy-pyrazole)/ha and 1.5kg ai perfluidone + 1.05kg ai bifenox (2,4-dichlorophenyl-3-methoxy carbonyl-4-nitro phenyl ether)/ha showed less crop injury than 1.5kg ai/ha perfluidone alone. However, the weeding effect of the former was similar to that of the later.

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Effect of Bronchial Artery Embolization(BAE) in Management of Massive Hemoptysis (대량 객혈환자에서 기관지 동맥색전술의 효과)

  • Yeo, Dong-Seung;Lee, Suk-Young;Hyun, Dae-Seong;Lee, Sang-Haak;Kim, Seok-Chan;Choi, Young-Mee;Suh, Ji-Won;Ahn, Joong-Hyun;Song, So-Hyang;Kim, Chi-Hong;Moon, Hwa-Sik;Song, Jeong-Sup;Park, Sung-Hak;Kim, Ki-Tae
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 1999
  • Background : Massive and untreated hemoptysis is associated with a mortality of greater than 50 percent. Since the bleeding is from a bronchial arterial source in the vast majority of patients, embolization of the bronchial arteries(BAE) has become an accepted treatment in the management of massive hemoptysis because it achieves immediate control of bleeding in 75 to 90 percent of the patients. Methods: Between 1990 and 1996, we treated 146 patients with hemoptysis by bronchial artery embolization. Catheters(4, 5, or 7F) and gelfoam, ivalon, and/or microcoil were used for embolization. Results: Pulmonary tuberculosis and related disorders were the most common underlying disease of hemoptysis(72.6%). Immediate success rate to control bleeding within 24hours was 95%, and recurrence rate was 24.7%. The recurrence rate occured within 6 months after embolization was 63.9%. Initial angiographic findings such as bilaterality, systemic-pulmonary artery shunt, neovascularity, aneurysm were not statistically correlated with rebleeding tendency(P>0.05). Among Initial radiographic findings, only pleural lesions were significantly correlated with rebleeding tendency(P<0.05). At additional bronchial artery angiograpy done due to rebleeding, recanalization of previous embolized arteries were 63.9%, and the presence of new feeding arteries were 16.7%, and 19.4% of patients with rebleeding showed both The complications such as fever, chest pain, headache, nausea and vomiting, arrhythmia, paralylytic ileus, transient sensory loss (lower extremities), hypotension, urination difficulty were noticed at 40 patients(27.4%). Conclusion: We conclude that bronchial artery embolization is relatively safe method achieving immediate control of massive hemoptysis. At initial angiographic findings, we could not find any predictive factors for subsequent rebleeding. It may warrant further study whether patients with pleural disease have definetely increased rebleeding tendency.

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Implementation Strategy for the Elderly Care Solution Based on Usage Log Analysis: Focusing on the Case of Hyodol Product (사용자 로그 분석에 기반한 노인 돌봄 솔루션 구축 전략: 효돌 제품의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Junsik;Yoo, In-Jin;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.117-140
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    • 2019
  • As the aging phenomenon accelerates and various social problems related to the elderly of the vulnerable are raised, the need for effective elderly care solutions to protect the health and safety of the elderly generation is growing. Recently, more and more people are using Smart Toys equipped with ICT technology for care for elderly. In particular, log data collected through smart toys is highly valuable to be used as a quantitative and objective indicator in areas such as policy-making and service planning. However, research related to smart toys is limited, such as the development of smart toys and the validation of smart toy effectiveness. In other words, there is a dearth of research to derive insights based on log data collected through smart toys and to use them for decision making. This study will analyze log data collected from smart toy and derive effective insights to improve the quality of life for elderly users. Specifically, the user profiling-based analysis and elicitation of a change in quality of life mechanism based on behavior were performed. First, in the user profiling analysis, two important dimensions of classifying the type of elderly group from five factors of elderly user's living management were derived: 'Routine Activities' and 'Work-out Activities'. Based on the dimensions derived, a hierarchical cluster analysis and K-Means clustering were performed to classify the entire elderly user into three groups. Through a profiling analysis, the demographic characteristics of each group of elderlies and the behavior of using smart toy were identified. Second, stepwise regression was performed in eliciting the mechanism of change in quality of life. The effects of interaction, content usage, and indoor activity have been identified on the improvement of depression and lifestyle for the elderly. In addition, it identified the role of user performance evaluation and satisfaction with smart toy as a parameter that mediated the relationship between usage behavior and quality of life change. Specific mechanisms are as follows. First, the interaction between smart toy and elderly was found to have an effect of improving the depression by mediating attitudes to smart toy. The 'Satisfaction toward Smart Toy,' a variable that affects the improvement of the elderly's depression, changes how users evaluate smart toy performance. At this time, it has been identified that it is the interaction with smart toy that has a positive effect on smart toy These results can be interpreted as an elderly with a desire to meet emotional stability interact actively with smart toy, and a positive assessment of smart toy, greatly appreciating the effectiveness of smart toy. Second, the content usage has been confirmed to have a direct effect on improving lifestyle without going through other variables. Elderly who use a lot of the content provided by smart toy have improved their lifestyle. However, this effect has occurred regardless of the attitude the user has toward smart toy. Third, log data show that a high degree of indoor activity improves both the lifestyle and depression of the elderly. The more indoor activity, the better the lifestyle of the elderly, and these effects occur regardless of the user's attitude toward smart toy. In addition, elderly with a high degree of indoor activity are satisfied with smart toys, which cause improvement in the elderly's depression. However, it can be interpreted that elderly who prefer outdoor activities than indoor activities, or those who are less active due to health problems, are hard to satisfied with smart toys, and are not able to get the effects of improving depression. In summary, based on the activities of the elderly, three groups of elderly were identified and the important characteristics of each type were identified. In addition, this study sought to identify the mechanism by which the behavior of the elderly on smart toy affects the lives of the actual elderly, and to derive user needs and insights.