• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.155-184
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• 2017

ASEAN marking its 50th anniversary in 2017 draws hopes and concerns. There is hope for the full realization of the vision of ASEAN Community since 2015 while there are increasing concerns about the changing internal and external environments. This article reviews the process of ASEAN's community building and its external relations. First, after reviewing institutionalization and functional cooperation in 2016, it argues that there is increasing pressure for the modification of the 'ASEAN Way' mainly due to the recent political changes in some ASEAN member states. Second, this article considers the nature of ASEAN's external relation focusing on continuity rather than change. The tendency of external relations of ASEAN appears to be 'avoiding conflict' and 'status quo' while it concentrates on development cooperation. We argue that such attitude contributes to the unity of ASEAN as it is useful in searching for regional resilience which is a common goal of ASEAN power elites.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.328-328
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• 2021

최근 전 지구적인 기후변화의 영향은 강우량의 집중을 야기하며 홍수피해의 규모를 증가시키는 영향을 끼친다. 특히, 아세안 국가들은 해수면 상승, 태풍 및 집중호우에 의한 침수피해 빈발로 최소 2,000만명이 영향을 받고 있다. 국내의 홍수예보모형을 수출하여 아세안 국가에 구축하고 있으나 통신 시설이 불안정하여 중앙제어 방식의 기존의 홍수예보시스템만으로는 긴급상황에 대한 대처가 부족할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 하나의 관측소에서 수위, 강우의 관측과 홍수예측, 경보까지 한번에 가능한 관측소를 개발하기 위해 관측된 수위와 강우자료를 활용하여 인공지능기반의 하천수위예측 모형을 개발하였다. 목표 리드타임은 30분에서 6시간으로 설정하였으며 모형은 Tensorflow로 구축하였다. 시계열 자료의 예측에 적합한 LSTM 기법을 적용하였다. 연구의 대상지역은 건설연의 계측시험유역인 설마천유역으로 하였으며 학습에는 2009년부터 2020년까지의 10분 단위 수위 및 강우량자료를 활용하였다. 연구결과 설마천 유역은 규모가 작고 도달시간이 짧아 1시간 후 예측까지는 높은 정확도를 나타냈으나 3시간 이상의 예측결과는 다소 낮게 평가되었다. 다만, 비상상황에서 통신이 두절된 상황에서 위급하게 대피를 위해 홍수경보를 발령하는데는 활용이 가능 할 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.12
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• pp.1285-1294
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• 2021

In recent years, as rainfall is concentrated and rainfall intensity increases worldwide due to climate change, the scale of flood damage is increasing. Rainfall of a previously unobserved magnitude falls, and the rainy season lasts for a long time on record. In particular, these damages are concentrated in ASEAN countries, and at least 20 million people among ASEAN countries are affected by frequent flooding due to recent sea level rise, typhoons and torrential rain. Korea supports the domestic flood warning system to ASEAN countries through various ODA projects, but the communication network is unstable, so there is a limit to the central control method alone. Therefore, in this study, an artificial intelligence-based flood prediction model was developed to develop an observation station that can observe water level and rainfall, and even predict and warn floods at once at one observation station. Training, validation and testing were carried out for 0.5, 1, 2, 3, and 6 hours of lead time using the rainfall and water level observation data in 10-minute units from 2009 to 2020 at Junjukbi-bridge station of Seolma stream. LSTM was applied to artificial intelligence algorithm. As a result of the study, it showed excellent results in model fit and error for all lead time. In the case of a short arrival time due to a small watershed and a large watershed slope such as Seolma stream, a lead time of 1 hour will show very good prediction results. In addition, it is expected that a longer lead time is possible depending on the size and slope of the watershed.

• Strategy21
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• s.33
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• pp.222-252
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• 2014

이 논문의 주요 목적은 중국의 남중국해에 대한 정책을 평가하는 것이며, 해양갈등 및 위기 상황과 관련된 사건을 관리하기 위한 중국의 접근을 분석하는 것이다. 주된 핵심은 중국의 남중국해에 대한 영유권 주장, 중국과 남중국해 인접국과의 분쟁 그리고 중국과 베트남 간 사례를 통해 분석된 분쟁 관리에 있어 중국의 행태, 접근방식 그리고 시각이다. 중국과 베트남과 같은 양자간 분쟁에 있어 남중국해 통킹만에서의 분쟁해결 사례는 강조될 수 있는 사례이며, 이는 중국이 인접국과의 분쟁을 공식적으로 해결한 첫 번째 사례였다. 결국 이 논문은 이를 근간으로 향후 중국이 어떻게 남중국해 현황을 관리할 것인가에 대해 넓은 논쟁을 결론으로 제시하고 있다.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.13-21
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• 2010

Since Korea establish diplomatic ties with China in 1992, korea and China have had rapid progress in most of field as politic, economy, society and culture through basing on cultural commonality and geographical adjacency. Especially, China is the biggest trading partner to korea, and also Korea is third-biggest trading country to China. They become strategic cooperating relation in 2008. Currently, in terms of international trade relation, WTO/DDA negotiation is proceeding in difficulty, but FTA has been growing and extending in the world, and the two country, china and korea, have been competitively trying wide and active FTA negotiation promotion. After Financial crisis in 1997, according to the requirement of local economic cooperation, China has shown the interest to several countries since the conclusion of FTA treaty with ASEAN in 2005. China also makes the active afford to conclude FTA with Korea. Last May 28th, this was mentioned in the meeting between president Lee and Premier Wen Jiabao, so it is anticipated that the negotiation for FTA will be started in the near future. There are many political suggestions and concerns in terms of way of negotiation korea would choose. Some economist said that "'Continuous FTA aimed at long-term protocol should be promoted between korea and China and negotiated includingly'" However, this research claims that commodity exchange, service, and investment areas should be included and it has to be comprehensive package settlement style in negotiation. This research has found out the characteristics of China's negotiation and implications through the China's existed FTA negotiation examples. Currently, China has taken Continuous or a phase-negotiation method to ASEAN, Pakistan, Chile and some other developing country and to advanced countries like New Zealand or Singapore, comprehensive package settlement method is used in FTA negotiation. In consider of the FTA negotiation between Korea and China, Korea has some problems in the commodity change area in agriculture maket's opening. While, for china, the issues would happen in service trade area, especially when encountering finance and communication industries are opened, China's economy could be exposed to some risk. In result, Korea should expand its negotiation range from commodity trade to service trade, in order to exchange both issues, then the negotiation will be concluded more easily. In other word, for FTA, korea should follow comprehensive package settlement way that is similar to New zealand and Singapore case. Through this kind of method, Korea can expect effect of creating trade, conversion of it and preoccupancy of service field in china's market against the advanced countries like Usa, Europe and Japan. Also, to have a successful FTA negotiation, korea should find out china's policy for FTA negotiation. With this information, korea will be able to suggest the way to make a profit. Systematic analysis and comparison about previous negotiation cases of china are needed before the negotiation begin.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.83-120
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• 2018

For Singapore, 2017 was an uneasy year. The presidential election was fraught with controversy since the revised Presidential Election Act allowed only one candidate to be eligible for the election. The bitter feud between Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and his siblings shocked many Singaporeans. Succession planning for the next top leadership is still veiled in obscurity. The anti-globalization trend and the increasing pressure to raise the tax have become major challenges for Singapore's economy to overcome. China's continuous diplomatic pressure has called into the question Singapore's pragmatic foreign policy. Although its relations with China were back to normal, Singapore, the ASEAN chair in 2018, is still facing intractable problems in safeguarding ASEAN centrality in the growing US-China rivalry. In the meantime, Singapore has pursued its diversity and equality, heading toward a more matured multi-racial and multi-cultural society in 2017. The first female president, Halimah Yacob, served as a symbolic epitome of Singapore's emphasis on diversity and harmony among different ethnic groups and minorities. This great milestone, however, has largely been questioned by Singaporeans, as it seemed to be a political gesture that only utilized Halimah's double minority in the level of ideologies. The election of the Malay president has led Singaporeans to think about the real equity and equality among minorities, while strongly motivated to move toward a more inclusive society. In 2018, Singaporean leaders will try to resolve many challenging problems by reaffirming leadership succession planning, which is expected to lead Singapore to pursue a more integrated society.