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M2 Velocity and Expected Inflation in Korea: Implications for Interest Rate Policy (인플레와 M2 유통속도(流通速度))

  • Park, Woo-kyu
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.3-19
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    • 1991
  • This paper attempts to identify key determinants of long run movements of real M2 by using the Johansen procedure for estimating and testing cointegration relations. It turns out that the real M2 equation has been stable over the long run despite rapid changes in financial structure since 1975. Moreover, the real M2 equation can be reduced to a velocity equation with the opportunity cost variable, expected inflation less the weighted average rate paid on M2 deposits, being the key determinant. However, it does not work to use a market interest rate such as the yield on corporate bonds in place of expected inflation for calculation of the opportunity cost. In the U.S., a market interest rate can be used, but not in Korea. Presumably, two somewhat different reasonings can be used to explain this result. One is that the yield on corporate bonds may not adequately reflect the inflationary expectations due to regulations on movements in interest rates. The other is that M2 deposits are not readily substitutable with such assets as corporate bonds because of market segmentations, regulations, and so on. From the policymaker's point of view, this implies that the inflation rate is an important indicator of a policy response. On the other hand, policymakers do not regard movements of the yield on corporate bonds as an important policy indicator. Altogether, the role of interest rates has been quite limited in Korea because of incomplete interest rate liberalization, an underdeveloped financial system, implementation procedures of policy measures, and so on. The result that M2 velocity has a positive cointegration relation with expected inflation minus the average rate on M2 implies that frequent adjustments of the regulated rates on M2 will be necessary as market conditions change. As the expected inflation gets higher, M2 velocity will eventually increase, given that the rates on M2 do not change. This will cause higher inflation. If interest rates are liberalized, then increases in market interest rates will result in lagged increases in deposits rates on M2. However, in Korea a substantial portion of deposit rates are regulated and will not change without the authority's initiatives. A tight monetary policy will cause increases in a few market interest rates. But the market mechanism, upward pressure for interest rate adjustments, never reaches regulated deposit rates. Hence the overall effects of tight monetary policy diminish considerably, only causing distortions in the flow of funds. Therefore, frequent adjustments of deposit rates are necessary as market conditions such as inflationary expectations change. Then it becomes important for the policymaker to actively engage in adjusting regulated deposit rates, because the financial sector in Korea is not fully developed.

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Design and Full Size Flexural Test of Spliced I-type Prestressed Concrete Bridge Girders Having Holes in the Web (분절형 복부 중공 프리스트레스트 콘크리트 교량 거더의 설계 및 실물크기 휨 실험 분석)

  • Han, Man Yop;Choi, Sokhwan;Jeon, Yong-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.3A
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    • pp.235-249
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    • 2011
  • A new form of I-type PSC bridge girder, which has hole in the web, is proposed in this paper. Three different concepts were combined and implemented in the design. First of all, a girder was precast at a manufacturing plant as divided pieces and assembled at the construction site using post-tensioning method, and the construction period at the site will be reduced dramatically. In this way, the quality of concrete can be assured at the manufacturing factory and concrete curing can be well controlled, and the spliced girder segments can be moved to the construction site without a transportation problem. Secondly, a numerous number of holes was made in the web of the girder. This reduces the self-weight of the girder. But more important thing related to the holes is that about half of the total anchorages can be moved from the girder ends into individual holes. The magnitude of negative moment developed at girder ends will be reduced. Also, since the longitudinal compressive stresses are reduced at ends, thick end diaphragm is not necessary. Thirdly, Prestressing force was introduced into the member through multiple stages. This concept of multi-stage prestressing method overcomes the prestressing force limit restrained by the allowable stresses at each loading stage, and maximizes the magnitude of applicable prestressing force. It makes the girder longer and shallower. Two 50 meter long full scale girders were fabricated and tested. One of them was non-spliced, or monolithic girder, made as one piece from the beginning, and the other one was assembled using post-tensioning method from five pieces of segments. It was found from the result that monolithic and spliced girder show similar load-deflection relationships and crack patterns. Girders satisfied specific girder design specification in flexural strength, deflection, and live load deflection control limit. Both spliced and monolithic holed web post-tensioned girders can be used to achieve span lengths of more than 50m with the girder height of 2 m.

A Study on the Fatigue Strength of the Welded Joints in Steel Structures(II) (강구조물(鋼構造物)의 용접연결부(鎔接連結部)의 피로강도(疲勞强度)에 관한 연구(研究)(II))

  • Park, Je Seon;Chung, Yeong Wha;Chang, Dong Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 1986
  • Welded connectors of the cover plates, the transverse stiffeners of the plate girders, and the gusset plates of the plates girders or box girders, were selected as studying objects. A simplified method of drawing the S-N curves in these welded joints by a computer program without the direct fatigue tests was established. The plots on the S-N curve using the values from the practical fatigue tests were compared with the results from the method of the computer programming. The results of these studies are as follows. It appeared that the fatigue life by calculation method was a little less than the practical fatigue life from the actual tests. The latter values included both life $N_c$ of occurrence of initial crack $a_i$ and the life $N_p$ of propagation of critical crack. On the other hand, the former values included only the life $N_p$. Therefore, these results should be considered as justifiable ones. Since the difference between the two results was not significant, the results by calculation method should be in the conservation side when the safety of the structures was considered. Consequently, the results by calculation method should be applicable to the fracture fatigue design of structure. For reference, the same fatigue tests were performed with the specimens of 3 pieces in each case made of the low-strength steel, SS 41. The results went unexpected showing that the fatigue strength was lower in the case of low-strength steel. That is, in the case of the cover plate, the fatigue strength became slowly higher than the case of high-strength steel, SWS 50. That was observed when the maximum testing stress was higher than $14kg/mm^2$. In addition, in the case of the transverse stiffener, the fatique strength became rapidly higher than the case of SWS 50. That was observed when the maximum testing stress was lower than $31kg/mm^2$. It was thought that more such fatigue tests should be performed for more reliable results.

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Locates the Sunken Ship 'Dmitri Donskoi' using Marine Geophysical Survey Techniques in Deep Water (지구물리 탐사기법을 이용한 심해 Dmitri Donskoi호 확인)

  • Yoo, Hai-Soo;Kim, Su-Jeong;Park, Dong-Won
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.104-117
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    • 2004
  • Dmitri Donskoi, which went down during the Russo-Japanese War occurred 100 years ago, was found by using geophysical exploration techniques at the 400 m water depth of submarine valley off Jeodong of Ulleung Island. In the submarine area with the rugged seabed topography and volcanic seamounts, in particular, the reliable seabed images were acquired by using the mid-to-shallow Multibeam exploration technique The strength of corrosion (causticity) of the sunken Donskoi, measured by the electrochemical method, decreased to 2/5 compared with the original strength.

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Why Central Banks Intervene? (왜 중앙은행은 개입하는가?)

  • Ko, Jong-Moon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.273-298
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    • 1995
  • 1960년대, 각국의 환율이 미국의 달러화에 연동(pegging)된 고정환율제도를 근간으로 하는 브레튼우즈(Bretton Woods)체제하에서 각국의 중앙은행은 환율을 일정한 범위 내로 유지하기 위한 정책수단으로 외환시장개입을 적극 활용하였다. 1973년 브레튼우즈체제하의 고정환율제도가 붕괴되고 변동환율제도가 채택된 이후에도 각국의 외환시장개입정책은 계속되었다. 1980년대에 레이건 행정부의 재정팽창정책과 미연방준비은행의 긴축통화정책으로 금리의 지속적인 상승과 미달러화의 큰폭의 절상이 이루어 졌다. 이에 국제무역의 위기를 우려한 미국, 독일, 프랑스, 영국, 일본 등 선진 5개국(Group-5, G5)은 1985년 9월 22일 미 달러화의 절하를 위해 외환시장에 공동으로 개입할 것을 주내용으로 한 플라자합의(Plaza Agreement)를 발표하였다. 그후에도 1987년 2월 23일 열린 루브르협정(Louvre Accord, G-6 Communique)에서 환율을 현수준으로 유지시키기 위한 목표환율대(Target zone)를 설정하고 외환시장개입을 통해 이를 유지하기로 합의한 바 있다. 이후의 구미각국은 환율의 관리를 위하여 국가가 공동으로 외환시장에 개입하곤 했다. 본 논문은 1987년 루브르협정 이후 미국, 독일 및 일본의 중앙은행의 외환시장 개입 정책이 소기의 목적을 달성했는지의 여부를 규명해 보고자 한다. 즉, Federal Reserve, Bundesbank 및 Bank of Japan의 외환시장개입이 현물환율시장(spot market)에서 각각의 변동성을 감소 시켰는지의 여부를 독일의 마르크화 및 일본의 엔화를 중심으로 규명해 보고자 한다. 1981년 루브르협정이후, 미국, 독일 및 일본의 중앙은행은 미국 달러화에 대한 마르크 및 엔화의 환율을 안정시키기 위해 꾸준히 외환시장에 개입해 왔다. 외환시장의 개입유형은 크게 태화외환시장개입(non-sterilized intervention)과 불태화외환시장개입(sterilized intervention)으로 구분할 수 있는데, 전자는 외환당국이 민간부문과 외화채권을 거래함으로써 본원통화의 크기가 변하는 개입형태를 의미하는 반면에 후자는 외환당국의 순외화자산의 크기변화가 본원통화의 변화를 초래하지 않는 경우이다. 즉, 불태화외환시장개입은 순외화자산의 증감이 순국내자산의 증감과 반비례해서 이루어지기 때문에 본원통화의 크기에는 변함이 없다. 외환시장개입이란 외환당국이 은행간 시장에서 민간시잔 참가자들과 행하는 적극적인 외환거래를 의미한다. 반면, 넓은 의미에서의 외환시장개입에는 수동적 외환시장개입이라고 불리는 고객거래가 포함된다. 후자의 거래는 국내통화 및 외화표시 자산의 상대적 공급규모를 변화시킨다는 의미에서 전통적외환시장개입과 동일한 효과를 갖기 때문에 광의의 외환시장 개입으로 분류된다. 외환시장의 개입목적은 크게 세 가지로 분류할 수 있다. 첫째, 환율의 안정적 운영이다. 환율수준이 자유롭게 변화되는 변동환율제도하에서 환율의 지나친 변동으로 인한 실물경제로의 부정적인 영향을 최소화하기 위해서 환율의 지나친 변동으로 인한 실물경제로의 부정적인 영향을 최소화하기 위해서 환율의 안정을 정책 목표로 설정하는 경우와 고정환율제도하에서 환율을 일정수준으로 유지시키기 위해서 외환당국이 외환시장에 개입하는 경우가 여기에 해당된다고 볼 수 있다. 둘째, 환율수준의 균형수준으로의 조정이다. 이때 야기될 수 있는 문제점으로는 환율균형 수준을 어떻게 정의, 추정할 것이냐 하는 점과 목표환율정책이 다른 정책목표와 상충될 수 있다는 점이다. 셋째, 외환당국이 공적외환보유액이나 구성을 변화시킬 목적으로 외환시장에 개입하는 경우이다. 이때의 외환시장개입은 현재의 환율수준이 개입으로 인하여 과도하게 이탈하는 문제가 발생하지 않을 것을 전제로 한다. 본고에서는 현물환율에 영향을 미치는 요소로 미국, 독일 및 일본의 중앙은행의 개입효과, 요일효과, 통화의 공급량(M1), 무역적자의 폭, 산업의 생산량, 생산가격지수(PPI), 소비자물가지수(CPI), 실업률, 옵션의 내재적 변동성 등을 고려한다. 환율의 변동성을 추정하는 식은 GARCH 모델이 사용된다. 본 추정모델은 Dominguez(1993)의 확장이다. Dominguez (1993)의 논문은 GARCH 모델을 써서 미국, 독일 및 일본의 중앙은행의 시장개입효과를 분석했으나, 거시변수를 고려대상에서 제외시켰다. 본 논문은 위의 방법에 거시변수를 삽입하고 모델을 변형시켜서 더 확실한 시장개입효과와 거시변수효과를 밝혔다. 또한 옵션의 내제적 변동성을 구하는 과정에서 American option model을 사용하는 대신, Bourtha & Courtadon (1987)등이 밝힌 바와 같이 American style option이라 할지라도, European Model을 쓰면 더욱더 간편하고, 예측력도 American Model에 뒤지지 않음을 이용하여, European Model을 써서 내재적 변동성을 구한 다음 이것을 독립변수로 이용하였다. 본 모델의 추정 결과는 3국의 시장개입정책이 현물환율과 옵션의 내재적 변동성을 증가시켜서 Louvre 협정이후 각국은 시장개입의 목적을 달성하지 못한 것으로 나타났다.

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Study on the Fire Risk Prediction Assessment due to Deterioration contact of combustible cables in Underground Common Utility Tunnels (지하공동구내 가연성케이블의 열화접촉으로 인한 화재위험성 예측평가)

  • Ko, Jaesun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2015
  • Recent underground common utility tunnels are underground facilities for jointly accommodating more than 2 kinds of air-conditioning and heating facilities, vacuum dust collector, information processing cables as well as electricity, telecommunications, waterworks, city gas, sewerage system required when citizens live their daily lives and facilities responsible for the central function of the country but it is difficult to cope with fire accidents quickly and hard to enter into common utility tunnels to extinguish a fire due to toxic gases and smoke generated when various cables are burnt. Thus, in the event of a fire, not only the nerve center of the country is paralyzed such as significant property damage and loss of communication etc. but citizen inconveniences are caused. Therefore, noticing that most fires break out by a short circuit due to electrical works and degradation contact due to combustible cables as the main causes of fires in domestic and foreign common utility tunnels fire cases that have occurred so far, the purpose of this paper is to scientifically analyze the behavior of a fire by producing the model of actual common utility tunnels and reproducing the fire. A fire experiment was conducted in a state that line type fixed temperature detector, fire door, connection deluge set and ventilation equipment are installed in underground common utility tunnels and transmission power distribution cables are coated with fire proof paints in a certain section and heating pipes are fire proof covered. As a result, in the case of Type II, the maximum temperature was measured as $932^{\circ}C$ and line type fixed temperature detector displayed the fire location exactly in the receiver at a constant temperature. And transmission power distribution cables painted with fire proof paints in a certain section, the case of Type III, were found not to be fire resistant and fire proof covered heating pipes to be fire resistant for about 30 minutes. Also, fire simulation was carried out by entering fire load during a real fire test and as a result, the maximum temperature is $943^{\circ}C$, almost identical with $932^{\circ}C$ during a real fire test. Therefore, it is considered that fire behaviour can be predicted by conducting fire simulation only with common utility tunnels fire load and result values of heat release rate, height of the smoke layer, concentration of O2, CO, CO2 etc. obtained by simulation are determined to be applied as the values during a real fire experiment. In the future, it is expected that more reliable information on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents can be provided and it will contribute to construction and maintenance repair effectively and systematically by analyzing and accumulating experimental data on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents built in this study and fire cases continuously every year and complementing laws and regulations and administration manuals etc.

Dynamic Characteristics for the Model of Horn Fish Hemiramphus Sajor Surface Pair Trawl Gear (학공치 표층예망어구 모형의 운동특성)

  • 김석종
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.285-295
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    • 2001
  • This study describes the analysis on the dynamic characteristics of model as a fundamental studies for the horn fish Hemiramphus sajor surface pair trawl gear. The model experiments were carried out in a flume tank by using model net for the horn fish surface par trawl gear. The model net was made to the scale of 1/40 by scaling down two surfce par trawl boats of 6.67 and 9.98 ton used for sea experiment in the coast of Jeju Island. Dimensions of the model net were 1.2m for stretch length of net, 1.3m for float line, 1.0m for sinker line, 2.5g for floats, and 0.86g for sinkers. Experiments were conducted in the observation channel of a flume tank with experimental equipments used to change the distance between paired boats and towing velocity. Motion of model net during towing was recorded by two sets of digital camera which were placed in the top and side of the model net. The leading coordinate of net height and net mouth width was captured by the photograph analysis system. Through the experiment, we obtained the following results: 1. The relationship between the net hight(Nh) and towing velocity(Vt) during towing was found to be Nh=(2.39Db-$^{0.62})Vt^{0.56}$ and the relationship between the net mouth width (Nw) and towing velocity during towing was Nw=(0.96Db^{0.62})Vt^{0.11}$, where Db is the distance between paired boats. 2. The relationship between the net tension(Nt) and towing velocity during towing was found to be Nt=106.94Vt+1.43 and the model net becomes parallel to the water surface at the towing velocity larger than 1.5 Knot. 3. The relationship between the net opening area(Na) and towing velocity during towing was found to be Na=(2.28Db0.37)Vt.-0.45, and the relationship between the filtering volume(Fv) and towing velocity during towing was Fv=(69.9Db$^{0.37})Vt^{0.55}$. The net opening area and filtering volume reach maximum value at the distance of 25m between paired boats.

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The Case on Valuation of IT Enterprise (IT 기업의 가치평가 사례연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Il;Yang, Hae-Sul
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.881-893
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    • 2007
  • IT(Information Technology)-based industries have caused a recent digital revolution and the appearance of various types' information service, being largely expanded toward info-communication device company, info-communication service company, software company etc.. Therefore, the needs to evaluate the company value of IT business for M&A or liquidation are growing tremendously. Unlike other industries, however, IT industry has a short lift cycle and so it doesn't have not only a company value-evaluating model for general businesses but the objective one for IT companies yet. So, this thesis analyzes various value-evaluating technique and newly rising ROV. DCF, the change method of company's cash flow including tangible assets into future value, had been applied during the past industrialization economy era and has been persuasively applied to the present. However, the DCF valuation has no option but to make many mistakes because IT companies have more intangible assets than tangible assets. Accordingly, it is ROV, recognized as the new method of evaluating companies' various options normally and quantitatively, that is brought up recently. But the evaluation on the companies' various options is too subjective and theoretical up to now and due to the lack of objective ground and options, it's not possible to be applied to reality. In this thesis, it is found that ROV is more accurate than DCF, comparing DCF and ROV through four examples. As the options applied to ROV are excessively limited, we tried to develop ROV into a new method by deriving five invisible value factors within IT companies. Therefore, on this occasion, we should set up the basic valuation methods on IT companies and should research and develop an effective and various valuation methods suitable to each company like an internet-based company, a S/W developing enterprise, a network-related company among IT companies.

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Flexural Test of H-Shape Members Fabricated of High-Strength Steel with Considering Local Buckling (국부좌굴을 고려한 고강도 조립 H형강 부재의 휨성능 실험)

  • Lee, Cheol-Ho;Han, Kyu-Hong;Park, Chang-Hee;Kim, Jin-Ho;Lee, Seung-Eun;Ha, Tae-Hyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.417-428
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    • 2011
  • Depending on the plastic deformation capacity required, structural steel design under the current codes can be classified into three categories: elastic, plastic, and seismic design. Most of the current steel codes explicitly forbid the use of a steel material with a yield strength higher than 450 MPa in the plastic design because of the concerns about its low plastic deformation capacity as well as the lack of test data on local and lateral torsional buckling behavior. In this study, flexural tests on full-scale H-shape members built with SM490A (ordinary steel or benchmark material) and HSB800 (high-strength steel) were carried out. The primary objective was to investigate the appropriateness of extrapolating the local buckling criterion of the current codes, which was originally developed for normal-strength steel, to the case of high-strength steel. All the SM490A specimens performed consistently with the current code criteria and exhibited sufficient strength and ductility. The performance of the HSB800 specimens was also very satisfactory from the strength perspective; even the specimens with a noncompact and slender flange developed the plastic moment capacity. The HSB800 specimens, however, showed an inferior plastic rotation capacity due to the premature tensile fracture of the beam bottom flange beneath the vertical stiffener at the loading point. The plastic rotation capacity that was achieved was less than 3 (or the minimum level required for a plastic design). Although the test results in this study indicate that the extrapolation of the current flange local-buckling criterion to the case of high-strength steel is conservative from the elastic design perspective, further testing together with an associated analytical study is required to identify the causes of the tensile fracture and to establish a flange slenderness criterion that is more appropriate for high-strength steel.

The Influence and Implications of Flower Vessels (花器) Supervised Process of Production During the Joseon Dynasty in the Early 15th Century (15세기 초반 경상도 상주목 일대 화기(花器)의 감조(監造) 배경과 견양(見樣)으로서의 의미)

  • Oh, Young-in
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.112-129
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    • 2019
  • This study investigates the influence and implications of the supervised process of production of flower vessels (花器) in 1411. The type, the production method, and the purpose of flower vessels (花器) were determined based on the workshops appearing in King Sejong-Sillok, Chiriji ("世宗實錄" "地理志") and Gyeongsang-do Chiriji ("慶尙道地理志"), considering articles excavated from Sangju kiln sites. In addition, the implications and the starting point of production of flower vessels (花器) in the Joseon Dynasty were identified. During the Joseon Dynasty, an effort was made to reorganize the government offices, to align ritual systems in the early 15th century. Preparation for rituals, preparation of supplemental utensils used in ancestral rites (祭器), the construction of architecture related to the Royal Family, and the production of weaponry (武器) were supervised. In 1411, flower vessels (花器) had a preferred supervised process of production as well, which means being recognized as a subject of maintenance for the Joseon Dynasty's aims. Flower vessels (花器) had been produced using grayish-blue powdered celadon (粉靑沙器) as flower pots (花盆), and as celadon flower pot-support (花臺), at Sangju kiln sites in particular, since 1411. Interestingly, products had been manufactured in royal kilns as well as in a few other kilns similar to the supervised process of production of flower vessels (花器) in the middle of the 15th century. It means that this effected the Gyeon-yang (見樣) supervised process of flower vessel (花器) production in 1411. At that time, the Joseon Dynasty used Gyeon-yang (見樣) for imperial gifts for the Ming Dynasty and on separate manufactured articles to ensure the standards of production. Gyeon-yang (見樣) affected the production of ceramic utensils used in ancestral rites (祭器), and government officials in Saongwon (司饔院) supervised the production of ceramics for the Royal Family year after year. In sum, it was flower vessels (花器) using Gyeon-yang (見樣) that provided precise production rules to supervise the process of production in 1411.