• Title/Summary/Keyword: 신뢰구간법

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Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Li-Ion Battery Based on Charge Voltage Characteristics (충전 전압 특성을 이용한 리튬 이온 배터리의 잔존 수명 예측)

  • Sim, Seong Heum;Gang, Jin Hyuk;An, Dawn;Kim, Sun Il;Kim, Jin Young;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.313-322
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    • 2013
  • Batteries, which are being used as energy sources in various applications, tend to degrade, and their capacity declines with repeated charging and discharging cycles. A battery is considered to fail when it reaches 80% of its initial capacity. To predict this, prognosis techniques are attracting attention in recent years in the battery community. In this study, a method is proposed for estimating the battery health and predicting its remaining useful life (RUL) based on the slope of the charge voltage curve. During this process, a Bayesian framework is employed to manage various uncertainties, and a Particle Filter (PF) algorithm is applied to estimate the degradation of the model parameters and to predict the RUL in the form of a probability distribution. Two sets of test data-one from the NASA Ames Research Center and another from our own experiment-for an Li-ion battery are used for illustrating this technique. As a result of the study, it is concluded that the slope can be a good indicator of the battery health and PF is a useful tool for the reliable prediction of RUL.

Development of Real-time Inflow Forecasting Models for Securing Reservoir Conservation Storage (이수용량 확보를 위한 실시간 저수지 유입량 예측모형의 개발)

  • Jang, Su-Hyung;Yoon, Jae-Young;Ahn, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Won-Seock;Yoon, Yong-Nam
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.821-825
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    • 2005
  • 본 연구에서는 홍수조절 용 저수지의 예비방류 시행을 충분히 효과적으로 시행하고 강우종료 후에도 충분한 이수용량이 확보되도록 실시간 강우자료를 이용한 저수지 유입량 예측모형을 개발하였다. 사전예보(기상청 등)에 의한 총 예상강우량과 선행강우량, 현재 저수지 수위를 입력자료로 저수지 유입 총량과 수위변화량을 계산하여 홍수조절 응 저수지의 초기수위저하 및 하류 하도의 홍수방어를 사전에 대비할 수 있는 자료를 제시하였다. 또한, 유역을 하나의 통합시스템으로 구성하고 실제 강우가 시작되면 매시간 현시간 이후 강우가 중단된다는 가정 하에 현시점까지의 우량주상도를 통합시스템에 적용하여 이후 저수지 유입량을 예측하였다. 무한천 예당저수지에 적용하였으며 통합시스템의 구성은 저수지유역을 10개 소유역으로 분할하고 소유역별 홍수유출량은 Clark의 유역추적법, 하도구간은 Muskingum의 하도홍수추적 방법으로 계산되도록 하였다. 그리고 홍수유출시스템 내에는 강우관측소별 티센가중치에 따라 소유역별 평균강우량이 자동으로 입력되도록 하였으며, 예측정확도를 위해 현시간 이전까지 매시간마다 저수지의 수위변동과 실제 방류량으로부터 실측유입량을 산정하여 모형의 매개변수가 자동 보정되도록 하였다. 1995년 8월 23일$\~$8월 26일과 1999년 8월 2일$\~$8월 4일의 집중호우에 대하여 적용한 결과 모형의 예측정확도는 신뢰수준에 있었으며, 이와 같은 자료는 장수형 등(2005)이 제시한 효율적 저수지 운영관리 시스템과 하나로 통합되어 하류 하도의 통수능력을 고려한 홍수방어능력을 극대화한 예비방류의 시행과 강우종료 후에도 이수용량에는 손실이 없는 저수지의 관리방안의 지침이 되는데 효율적이라 판단되었다. 방법을 개발하여 개선시킬 필요성이 있다.>$4.3\%$로 가장 근접한 결과를 나타내었으며, 총 유출량에서도 각각 $7.8\%,\;13.2\%$의 오차율을 가지는 것으로 분석되어 타 모형에 비해 실유량과의 차가 가장 적은 것으로 모의되었다. 향후 도시유출을 모의하는 데 가장 근사한 유출량을 산정할 수 있는 근거가 될 것이며, 도시재해 저감대책을 수립하는데 기여할 수 있을 것이라 판단된다.로 판단되는 대안들을 제시하는 예비타당성(Prefeasibility) 계획을 수립하였다. 이렇게 제시된 계획은 향후 과학적인 분석(세부평가방법)을 통해 대안을 평가하고 구체적인 타당성(feasibility) 계획을 수립하는데 토대가 될 것이다.{0.11R(mm)}(r^2=0.69)$로 나타났다. 이는 토양의 투수특성에 따라 강우량 증가에 비례하여 점증하는 침투수와 구분되는 현상이었다. 경사와 토양이 같은 조건에서 나지의 경우 역시 $Ro_{B10}(mm)=20.3e^{0.08R(mm)(r^2=0.84)$로 지수적으로 증가하는 경향을 나타내었다. 유거수량은 토성별로 양토를 1.0으로 기준할 때 사양토가 0.86으로 가장 작았고, 식양토 1.09, 식토 1.15로 평가되어 침투수에 비해 토성별 차이가 크게 나타났다. 이는 토성이 세립질일 수록 유거수의 저항이 작기 때문으로 생각된다. 경사에 따라서는 경사도가 증가할수록 증가하였으며 $10\% 경사일 때를 기준으로 $Ro(mm)=Ro_{10}{\times}0.797{\times}e^{-0.021s(\%)}$로 나타났다.천성 승모판 폐쇄 부전등을 초래하는 심각한 선천성 심질환이다. 그러나 진단 즉시 직접 좌

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Effects of Dental Hygienist's Musculoskeletal Pain Resolution and Self-Efficacy on Musculoskeletal Disorders (치과위생사의 근골격계 통증 해결 방법과 자기효능감이 근골격계 질환에 미치는 영향)

  • Moon, Ae-Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.329-338
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to examine musculoskeletal disorder and analyze the effects of musculoskeletal pain control and self-efficacy on musculoskeletal disorders in dental hygienists. Material and Methods; 483 dental hygienists residing in Gwangju were collected by the convenience sampling method and the self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted. Frequency analysis, crosstab analysis, t-test, and multiple logistic regression analysis were used for analysis. Results: the prevalence of musculoskeletal pain among subjects was 83.9% for the prior year, with 29.8% of patients being afflicted by musculoskeletal disorders. The factors influencing musculoskeletal disorders were musculoskeletal pain resolution. For pain resolution, the odds ratio of musculoskeletal disorders of the group who answered treatment in a hospital, an Oriental medicine clinic, or a pharmacy was 0.22 (95% confidence interval, 0.14-0.34) compared with the group who answered sick leave or task change, suggesting a negative relationship. These findings indicate that people with musculoskeletal disorders were not treated in the hospital, Oriental medicine clinic, or pharmacy. Therefore, it is necessary to improve medical management (oriental medicine, intravenous injection or medication, heat therapy or cryotherapy, steroid treatment, counseling, endovascular treatment using spinal cord stimulation, physical therapy, stretching, rehabilitation, and manual therapy) and job environment and to make a good approach to the prevention of musculoskeletal disorders to control dental hygienists' musculoskeletal pain.

A Study on the Monitoring Method of Ship Hull and Propeller Performance by Operating Ship (선체 및 프로펠러 성능 모니터링 방법 실선 적용을 통한 고찰)

  • KIM, Dong-Hyun;JUNG, Bong-Kyu;HAN, Seung-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes the results of applying the ISO19030 (hull and propeller performance monitoring method) standard to an actual 178 k bulk vessel. Recently, there have been many attempts to apply various energy reduction solutions to vessels to continuously strengthen GHG reduction regulations and secure maritime competitiveness. However, it is not easy to quantitatively analyze the performance of a ship. To resolve these problems, shipping companies, marine paint companies, ship owners, and transportation associations have appointed specialists and standardized the ISO19030 (standard of hull and propeller performance monitoring method) guidelines in 2016 after three years of continuous review. The ISO19030 standard provides methods to monitor hull and propeller performance quantitatively through standardized procedures, thus allowing ship managers to arrive at informed decisions for hull and propeller maintenance, and to evaluate energy-saving solutions and ship-maintenance efficiency. The ISO19030 standard provides a method of analyzing the ship's own performance by collecting the ship's operation and agency data and correcting its environmental and operating factors. In this paper, we apply the ISO19030 standard to three actual ships and propose the ISO19030 application result and the improvement point of the current ISO19030 standard.

Site Characterization using Shear-Wave Velocities Inverted from Rayleigh-Wave Dispersion in Wonju, Korea (레일리파 분산을 역산하여 구한 횡파속도를 이용한 원주시의 부지특성)

  • Kim, Chungho;Ali, Abid;Kim, Ki Young
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2014
  • To reveal shear-wave velocities ($v_s$) and site characterization of Wonju, Korea, Rayleigh waves were recorded at 78 sites of lower altitude using 12 to 24 4.5-Hz vertical geophones for 20 days during the period of February to September 2013. Dispersion curves of the Rayleigh waves obtained by the extended spatial autocorrelation method were inverted using the damped least-squares method to derive $v_s$ models. From these 1-D models, the average $v_s$ to a depth of 30 m ($v_s30$), $v_s$ of weathered rocks, depths to these basement rocks, and average $v_s$ of the overburden layer were derived to be $16.3{\pm}0.7m$, $576{\pm}8m/s$, $290{\pm}7m/s$, and $418{\pm}13m/s$, respectively, in the 95% confidence range. To determine adequate proxies for $v_s30$, we computed correlation coefficients of $v_s30$ with topographic slope (r = 0.46) and elevation (r = 0.43). An empirical linear relationship is presented as a combination of individually estimated $v_s30$ with weighting factors of 0.45, 0.45, and 0.1 for topographic slope, elevation, and mapped lithology, respectively. Due to a weak correlation between $v_s30$ obtained from inversion of dispersion curves and the proxy-based estimation (r = 0.50), however, the relatively large error range should be considered for applications of this relationship.

Risk Factors for Primary Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis (초회다제내성 결핵의 위험요인)

  • Min, Jinhong;Park, Keeho;Whang, Suhee;Kim, Jinhee
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.59 no.6
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    • pp.600-605
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    • 2005
  • Background : Primary multidrug-resistant tuberculosis is defined as Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates that are resistant to at least isoniazid and rifampin in never-been-treated tuberculosis patients, and this malady is caused by the transmission of a resistant strain from one patient, who is infected with a resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain, to another patient. The prevalence of primary multidrug-resistant tuberculosis could be a good indicator of the performance of tuberculosis control programs in recent years. We conducted a case-control study to identify the risk factors for primary multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Methods : From January 1, 2001 to, June 30, 2003, by conducting prospective laboratory-based surveillance, we identified 29 hospitalized patients with P-MDRTB and these patients constituted a case group in this study. The controls were represented by all the patients with culture-confirmed drug susceptible tuberculosis who were admitted to National Masan Hospital during the same study period. The odds ratios for the patients with primary multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, as compared with those of the patients with drug susceptible tuberculosis, were calculated for each categorical variable with 95% confidence intervals. Results : Multivariate logistic regression showed that the presence of diabetes mellitus (odds ratio 2.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-6.86) was independently associated with having primary multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Conclusion : This study has shown that diabetes mellitus might be one of the risk factors for primary multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

Outcome of Chemotherapy with Pulmonary Tuberculosis Resistant to Isoniazid and Rifampin (다제내성 폐결핵의 화학치료)

  • Park, Seung-Kyu;Kwon, Eun-Soo;Ha, Hyun-Cheol;Hwang, Su-Hee
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 1999
  • Background : The treatment for multi-drug resistant tuberculosis(MDRTB) is encountered to be important clinically, but there are still a few reports about it all over the world. So, we evaluated the outcomes of only chemotherapy for the pulmonary MDRTB retrospectively. Method: We reviewed the clinical courses of 63 patients with pulmonary disease due to M.tuberculosis resistant to rifampin and isoniazid who were under follow-up between March 1996 and June 1996 after hospitalization at our hospital between January 1993 and January 1996. We performed cohort retrospective study for all these patient's records. Their regimens were selected individually and preferably included four medications that they had not been given previously and to which the strain was fully susceptible. Results: The 63 patients(mean age, 43.2 years) had previously received a median 5.1drugs. Fifty two(82.5%) patients responded to chemotherapy(as indicated by negative sputum cultures for at least three consecutive months) ; eleven patients(17.5 %) had no response, as shown by continually positive cultures. In a univariate analysis, an unfavorable response was significantly associated with greater number of resistant drugs before the current courses of therapy(relative risk 21.5 ; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.2-3.0; p<0.05). The mean period of follow-up was seventeen months. There was no relapse suooequently among the patients with responses. There was no death related to tuberculosis. Conclusion: In this report from National Masan Tuberculosis Hospital in Korea, multi-drug resistant pulmonary tuberculosis responded relatively well to carefully selected regimens.

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Establishment of Chlorantraniliprole-Resistant Drosophila Strains and Identification of Their Resistant Characteristics (Chlorantraniliprole 저항성 초파리 계통 확립과 저항성 특성 구명)

  • Kim, A-Young;Kwon, Deok Ho;Jeong, In Hong;Thuc, Ahn Phan;Tran, Vi Ngan;Lee, Si Hyeock;Koh, Young Ho
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.413-419
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    • 2016
  • Ryanodine receptors (RyRs) regulate the contractions of insect muscles by altering intracellular $Ca^{2+}$ concentration and are the targets of chlorantraniliprole. Recently, a chlorantraniliprole-resistant strain was reported in the diamondback moth Plutella xylostella by obtaining point mutations on the RyRs. In the present study, we established two resistant strains from Drosophila melanogaster, which were treated with low or high concentrations of chlorantraniliprole, and their resistance levels were determined on the basis of contact and ingestion toxicities. Compared with the control strain, the two resistant strains did not show any significant differences in contact toxicity. However, they showed significantly increased resistance ratios in ingestion toxicity than that by the control strain. The low and high concentration resistant strains exhibited 2.1- and 8.1-fold increased resistance ratios, respectively, compared with that by the control strain. Moreover, we found that the resistant strains had altered expression levels of RyRs and more enhanced Acetylcholinesterase and Glutathione-S-transferase activities than that by the non-selected strain. These results suggested that the resistance development of chlorantraniliprole in the two strains might be mediated by the activation of detoxification pathways in D. melanogaster.

A Cephalometric Study of Lateral Morphologic Features in Adult Cleft Lip and Palate Patients (구순 구개열 환자의 성장후 측모형태에 관한 두부계측방사선학적 연구)

  • Chang, Ic-Jun;Sohn, Woo-Ill;Song, Jae-Chul;Chin, Byung-Rho
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.112-122
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    • 2001
  • Background: Cleft lip and palate deformity have unknown patterns of maxillofacial growth and development. The maxillofacial growth can be affected either by congenital or environmental factors such as infection and trauma. Surgical repair of cleft lip and palate may interfere the subsequent growth and development of maxillofacial region. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the characteristics of maxillofacial growth patterns in adult cleft lip and palate patients. Materials and Methods: The material for this study consisted of 17 adult male patients with cleft lip and palate. Cephalometric tracing and measurements were done by one investigator. The relationship between 17 cleft lip and palate patients and Korean norms were evaluated statistically. Results: There were statistically differences in Na. perpendicular to point A, SNA angle, effective maxillary length, maxillofacial differencial. Wit's appraisal and upper incisor to point A(p < 0.01). Pogonion to Na. perpendicular also statistically differed(p < 0.05). Other measurements didn't statistically differ. Conclusion: It was evident that in adult cleft lip and palate patients, maxilla was retruded and short. Careful cleft lip and palate repair and treatment are recommended for facilitating normal growth of maxilla.

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Nonlinear Seismic Performance Evaluation of an Operating TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) Tunnel (공용 중인 TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) 터널의 비선형 내진성능 평가 )

  • Byoung-Il Choi;Dong-Ha Lee;Jin-Woo Jung;Si-Hyun Park
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2024
  • Recently, the TBM tunnel construction method has been in the spotlight as tunnel excavation under urban areas such as the Metropolitan Rapid Transit (GTX) has been actively carried out. Although the construction cost of the TBM tunnel is high, it is relatively free from noise and vibration compared to the NATM tunnel method, so it is well known to be a suitable construction method for application to the lower part of urban areas. In particular, when the stratum passes through the shallow section, it can have a great impact on existing upper structures and obstacles, so accurate numerical analysis considering various variables is required when designing the TBM tunnel. Unlike other tunnel construction methods, TBM tunnels build linings by assembling factory-made segments. Unlike NATM tunnels, segment lining has connections between segments, so how to the connection status between segments is reflected can have a significant impact on securing the reliability of analysis results. Therefore, in this paper, a segment joint model(Janssen Model) was applied to the lining for seismic analysis of the TBM tunnel, and the tunnel's behavioral characteristics were analyzed after numerical analysis using nonlinear models according to urban railway seismic design standards.