• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시뮬레이션모형

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Potential Impact of Timber Supply and Fuel-Wood on the Atmospheric Carbon Mitigation : A Carbon Cycle Modeling Approach (목재공급과 연료용 목재가 대기에 축적된 탄소저감에 미치는 잠재적 영향 : 탄소순환모형 접근법)

  • Lyon, Kenneth S.;Lee, Dug Man
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.597-632
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    • 2010
  • There is general agreement that global warming is occurring and that the main contributor to this probably is the buildup of green house gasses, GHG, in the atmosphere. Two main contributors are the utilization of fossil fuels and the deforestation of many regions of the world. The burning of fossil fuels increases atmospheric carbon while the burning of fuel-wood reducing fossil fuel consumption along with its forest source maintain an atmospheric carbon level. The standing timber in the forests is a carbon sink, as are wood buildings and structures, and fossil fuel in the ground. This paper is designed to examine a number of current issues related to mitigating the global warming problem through forestry. For this purpose, we develop a modeling approach by integrating timber market, fossil fuel market and carbon cycling model. We use discrete time optimal control theory to identify optimal time paths, the laws of motion, and stationary stats solutions of endogenous variables in the model. On the basis of these results, we identify the optimal amounts of subsidies to be provided or taxes to be imposed by the regulatory agency to mitigate atmospheric carbon accumulation. We also present a numerical example to help illustrate the characteristics of variables in the model when the social cost for atmospheric carbon incrementally shifts upward. A surprising result is that the social cost function for atmospheric carbon has a very smaller impact on the optimal rotation period than previous literature suggested.

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Borrowing Constraints and the Marginal Propensity to Consume (차입제약과 한계소비성향)

  • Bishop, Thomas;Park, Cheolbeom
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2011
  • Available evidence suggests that the average marginal propensity to consume (MPC) from the 2001 tax rebate in the US was not nearly as large as that from previous tax cuts. We examine if this phenomenon can be explained by the fact that the widespread use of credit cards has made borrowing accessible for most US households by constructing a model that simulates the dynamic effect of relaxed borrowing constraints. Our model uses Kreps-Porteus preferences which account for independent measures of relative risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, both of which can theoretically affect the willingness to save or spend. Our model shows that the average MPC drops substantially immediately after borrowing constraints are relaxed because few consumers have binding borrowing constraints at that time. The model also shows that consumers gradually reduce their wealth after borrowing constraints are relaxed, causing more of them to have binding constraints over time, which in turn causes the average MPC to rise gradually to a new steady state value that is slightly lower than the original value. This dynamic pattern of the MPC suggests that a greater ability to borrow with credit cards could explain the lower effectiveness of the 2001 tax rebate. In addition, the model predicts that consumers choose to hold lower amounts of liquid assets for precautionary reasons when they have a greater ability to borrow unsecured debt.

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Traffic Signal Control Algorithm for Isolated Intersections Based on Travel Time (독립교차로의 통행시간 기반 신호제어 알고리즘)

  • Jeong, Youngje;Park, Sang Sup;Kim, Youngchan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2012
  • This research suggested a real-time traffic signal control algorithm using individual vehicle travel times on an isolated signal intersection. To collect IDs and passing times from individual vehicles, space-based surveillance systems such as DSRC were adopted. This research developed models to estimate arrival flow rates, delays, and the change rate in delay, by using individual vehicle's travel time data. This real-time signal control algorithm could determine optimal traffic signal timings that minimize intersection delay, based on a linear programming. A micro simulation analysis using CORSIM and RUN TIME EXTENSION verified saturated intersection conditions, and determined the optimal traffic signal timings that minimize intersection delay. In addition, the performance of algorithm varying according to market penetration was examined. In spite of limited results from a specific scenario, this algorithm turned out to be effective as long as the probe rate exceeds 40 percent. Recently, space-based traffic surveillance systems are being installed by various projects, such as Hi-pass, Advanced Transportation Management System (ATMS) and Urban Transportation Information System (UTIS) in Korea. This research has an important significance in that the propose algorithm is a new methodology that accepts the space-based traffic surveillance system in real-time signal operations.

An Economic Evaluation on the Direct Payment System for Environment-friendly Agriculture in Korea Using AGE Model (AGE모형을 이용한 친환경농업직불제의 경제적 성과계측)

  • Kim, Myung-Su;Lee, Young-Ho;Kim, Bae-Sung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.39-45
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    • 2016
  • This study analyses the macroeconomic effects of the direct payment system (DPS) for environment-friendly agriculture in Korea. We utilized the applied general equilibrium model (AGE model) for the general agricultural sector as well as the environmentally-friendly agricultural sector. We considered several scenarios based on various direct payment amounts to measure and analyze economic impacts. Scenario 1 considers the current direct payment system. Scenario 2 examines an additional 5% increase from the direct payment amount in scenario 1. Scenario 3 reviews an increase of 10% in direct payment amount while Scenario 4 considers an additional increase of 15% compared with Scenario 1. Lastly, scenario 5 examines a 20% increase in direct payment amounts compared with scenario 1. In addition, the baseline considers conditions prior to the introduction of the direct payment system. The simulation analysis results show that capital formation, production volume, and labor productivity increased in the environment-friendly agricultural sector. In contrast, employment in the environment-friendly agricultural sector decreased. The price of environment-friendly agricultural products following the introduction of the DPS remain consistent with the price of environment-friendly agricultural product before introducing the DPS. This results from price elasticity of supply and demand are inelastic, and there is no change in the income of consumers during the analysis period. However, additional research is necessary for improvement of the model using complementary statistical data for the environmental-friendly agriculture sector.

Development of river discharge estimation scheme using Monte Carlo simulation and 1D numerical analysis model (Monte Carlo 모의 및 수치해석 모형을 활용한 하천 유량 추정기법의 개발)

  • Kang, Hansol;An, Hyunuk;Kim, Yeonsu;Hur, Youngteck;Noh, Joonwoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.279-289
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    • 2022
  • Since the frequency of heavy rainfall is increasing due to climate change, water levels in the river exceed past historical records. The rating-curve is to convert water level into flow dicscharge from the regression analysis of the water level and corresponding flow discharges. However, the rating-curve involves many uncertainties because of the limited data especially when observed water level exceed past historical water levels. In order to compensate for insufficient data and increase the accuracy of flow discharge data, this study estimates the flow discharge in the river computed mathematically using Monte Carlo simulation based on a 1D hydrodynamic numerical model. Based on the existing rating curve, a random combination of coefficients constituting the rating-curve creates a number of virtual rating curve. From the computed results of the hydrodynamic model, it is possible to estimate flow discharge which reproduces best fit to the observed water level. Based on the statistical evaluation of these samples, a method for mathematically estimating the water level and flow discharge of all cross sections is porposed. The proposed methodology is applied to the junction of Yochoen Stream in the Seomjin River. As a result, it is confirmed that the water level reproducibility was greatly improved. Also, the water level and flow discharge can be calculated mathematically when the proposed method is applied.

Study on Advisory Safety Speed Model Using Real-time Vehicular Data (실시간 차량정보를 이용한 안전권고속도 산정방안에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, JeongAh;Kim, HyunSuk
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.443-451
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    • 2010
  • This paper proposes the methodology about advisory safety speed based on real-time vehicular data collected from highway. The proposed model is useful information to drivers by appling seamless wireless communication and being collected from ECU(Engine Control Unit) equipment in every vehicle. Furthermore, this model also permits the use of realtime sensing data like as adverse weather and road-surface data. Here, the advisory safety speed is defined "the safety speed for drivers considering the time-dependent traffic condition and road-surface state parameter at uniform section", and the advisory safety speed model is developed by considering the parameters: inter-vehicles safe stopping distance, statistical vehicle speed, and real-time road-surface data. This model is evaluated by using the simulation technique for exploring the relationships between advisory safety speed and the dependent parameters like as traffic parameters(smooth condition and traffic jam), incident parameters(no-accident and accident) and road-surface parameters(dry, wet, snow). A simulation's results based on 12 scenarios show significant relationships and trends between 3 parameters and advisory safety speed. This model suggests that the advisory safety speed has more higher than average travel speed and is changeable by changing real-time incident states and road-surface states. The purpose of the research is to prove the new safety related services which are applicable in SMART Highway as traffic and IT convergence technology.

A Study on the 3D Measurement Data Application: The Detailed Restoration Modeling of Mireuksajiseoktap (미륵사지석탑 정밀복원모형 제작을 중심으로 한 3차원 실측데이터의 활용 연구)

  • Moon, Seang Hyen
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.76-95
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    • 2011
  • After dismantled, Mireuksajiseoktap(Stone pagoda of Mireuksa Templesite) is being in the stage of restoration design. Now, different ways - producing restoration model, a 3 dimension simulation - have been requested to make more detailed and clearer restoration design prior to confirmation of its restoration design and actual restoration carry-out. This thesis proposes the way to build the detailed model for better restoration plan using extensively-used Reverse Engineering technique and Rapid Prototyping. It also introduces each stage such as a 3-dimension actual measurement, building database, a 3-dimension simulation etc., to build a desirable model. On the top of that, this thesis reveals that after dismantled, MIruksaji stone pagoda's interior and exterior were not constructed into pieces but wholeness, so that its looks can be grasped in more virtually and clearly. Secondly, this thesis makes a 3-dimension study on the 2-dimension design possible by acquiring basic materials about a 3-dimension design. Thirdly, the individual feature of each member like the change of member location can be comprehended, considering comparing analysis and joint condition of member. Lastly, in the structural perspective this thesis can be used as reference materials for structure reinforcement design by grasping destructed aspects of stone pagoda and weak points of the structure. In dismantlement-repair and restoration work of cultural properties that require delicate attention and exactness, there may be evitable errors on time and space in building reinforcement and restoration design based on a 2-dimension plan. Especially, the more complicate and bigger the subject is, the more difficult an analysis about the status quo and its delicate design are. A series of pre-review, based on the 3-dimension data according to actual measurement, can be one of the effective way to minimize the possibility that errors about time - space happen by building more delicate plan and resolving difficulties.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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Comparative Studies on Absorbed Dose by Geant4-based Simulation Using DICOM File and Gafchromic EBT2 Film (DICOM 파일을 사용한 Geant4 시뮬레이션과 Gafchromic EBT2 필름에 의한 인체 내 흡수선량 비교 연구)

  • Mo, Eun-Hui;Lee, Sang-Ho;Ahn, Sung-Hwan;Kim, Chong-Yeal
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.48-53
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    • 2013
  • Monte Carlo method has been known as the most accurate method for calculating absorbed dose in the human body, and an anthropomorphic phantom has been mainly used as a method of simulating internal organs for using such a calculation method. However, various efforts are made to extract data on several internal organs in the human body directly from CT DICOM files in recent Monte Carlo calculation using Geant4 code and to use by converting them into the geometry necessary for simulation. Such a function makes it possible to calculate the internal absorbed dose accurately while duplicating the actual human anatomical structure. Thus, this study calculated the absorbed dose in the human body by using Geant4 associating with DICOM files, and aimed to confirm the usefulness by compare the result with the measured dose using a Gafchromic EBT2 film. This study compared the dose calculated using simulation and the measured dose in beam central axis using the EBT2 film. The results showed that the range of difference was an average of 3.75% except for a build-up region, in which the dose rapidly changed from skin surface to the depth of maximum dose. In addition, this study made it easy to confirm the target absorbed dose by internal organ and organ through the output of the calculated value of dose by CT slice and the dose value of each voxel in each slice. Thus, the method that outputs dose value by slice and voxel through the use of CT DICOM, which is actual image data of human body, instead of the anthropomorphic phantom enables accurate dose calculations of various regions. Therefore, it is considered that it will be useful for dose calculation of radiotherapy planning system in the future. Moreover, it is applicable for currently-used several energy ranges in current use, so it is considered that it will be effectively used in order to check the radiation absorbed dose in the human body.

Image-based Absorbed Dosimetry of Radioisotope (영상기반 방사성동위원소 흡수선량 평가)

  • Park, Yong Sung;Lee, Yong Jin;Kim, Wook;Ji, Young Hoon;Kim, Kum Bae;Kang, Joo Hyun;Lim, Sang Moo;Woo, Sang-Keun
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.86-92
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    • 2016
  • An absorbed dose calculation method using a digital phantom is implemented in normal organs. This method cannot be employed for calculating the absorbed dose of tumor. In this study, we measure the S-value for calculating the absorbed dose of each organ and tumor. We inject a radioisotope into a torso phantom and perform Monte Carlo simulation based on the CT data. The torso phantom has lung, liver, spinal, cylinder, and tumor simulated using a spherical phantom. The radioactivity of the actual absorbed dose is measured using the injected dose of the radioisotope, which is Cu-64 73.85 MBq, and detected using a glass dosimeter in the torso phantom. To perform the Monte Carlo simulation, the information on each organ and tumor acquired using the PET/CT and CT data provides anatomical information. The anatomical information is offered above mean value and manually segmented for each organ and tumor. The residence time of the radioisotope in each organ and tumor is calculated using the time activity curve of Cu-64 radioactivity. The S-values of each organ and tumor are calculated based on the Monte Carlo simulation data using the spatial coordinate, voxel size, and density information. The absorbed dose is evaluated using that obtained through the Monte Carlo simulation and the S-value and the residence time in each organ and tumor. The absorbed dose in liver, tumor1, and tumor2 is 4.52E-02, 4.61E-02, and 5.98E-02 mGy/MBq, respectively. The difference in the absorbed dose measured using the glass dosimeter and that obtained through the Monte Carlo simulation data is within 12.3%. The result of this study is that the absorbed dose obtained using an image can evaluate each difference region and size of a region of interest.