• 제목/요약/키워드: 시계열 회귀 분석

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A study on the effect of tax evasion controversy on corporate values in internet news portals through big data analysis (빅데이터 분석을 통한 인터넷 뉴스 포털에서의 탈세 논란이 기업 가치에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Min;Park, Myung-Ho;Kim, Byung-Jun;Park, Dae-Keun
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2021
  • If a company's actions to save or avoid taxes are judged to be tax evasion rather than legal tax action by the tax authorities, the company will not only pay tax but also non-tax costs such as damage to corporate image and stock price decline due to a series of tax evasion-related news articles. Therefore, this study measures the frequency of occurrence of tax evasion controversial keywords in internet news portal as a factor to measure the severity of the case, and analyzes the effect of the frequency of occurrence on corporate value. In the Korean stock market, we crawl related articles from internet news portal by using keywords that are controversial for tax evasion targeting top companies based on market capitalization, and generate a time series of the frequency of occurrence of keywords about tax evasion by company and analyze the effect of frequency of appearance on book value versus market capitalization. Through panel regression and impulse response analysis, it is analyzed that the frequency of appearance has a negative effect on the market capitalization and the effect gradually decreases until 12 months. This study examines whether the tax evasion issue affects the corporate value of Korean companies and suggests that it is necessary to take these influences into account when entrepreneurs set up tax-planning schemes.

The Inflation Effect on Optimal Bank Capital Structure and Asset Riskiness (인플레이션이 은행(銀行)의 재무구조(財務構造)와 자산위험도(資産危險度)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Oh, Young-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.155-177
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    • 1991
  • 기업의 재무구조와 인플레이션과의 관계는 세율에 대한 다양한 형태의 가정을 통하여 연구, 분석되어 왔으나, 이 문제를 확실히 해결하지는 못하였다. 근자에 A. Marcus(1983)가 미국의 은행의 재무구조를 대상으로 한 시계열분석 결과에 의하면 명목이자율의 상승이 미국은행의 부채 대비 자본금 비율을 하락시키는 절대적 요인이 되었다고 한다. 본 연구의 목적은 인플레이션과 은행의 부채 대비 자본금 비율의 상관관계, 더욱 나아가서 은행자산의 위험도가 이 상관관계에 미치는 영향을 분석코자 한다. 본고는 은행규제기관(FDIC 등)의 부채비율과 은행자산(포트폴리오)의 위험도에 대한 규제하에서 은행이 부채(예금)와 자본금의 가치를 극대화하고자 하는 모델을 설정하여 기대 인플레이션 수준이 은행의 적정 자본비율과 자산의 위험도와 어떤 관계가 있는가를 밀러의 균형모델(Miller Equilibrium Model)을 원용하여 분석하였다. 밀러의 균형모델하에서는 기업의 재무구조는 기업가치와 무관한 것으로 나타나고 있다. 즉, 부채를 통한 자금조달에 의해 발생되는 한계세금혜택은 균형하에서는 사라진다는 이론이다. 따라서 인플레이션은 적정 재무구조에는 영향을 미치지 못하게 된다. 왜냐하면 인플레이션은 기업의 세후 부채조달비용과 회사채 투자자 수익에 동일한 영향을 미치기 때문이다. 그러나 은행의 경우 일반 기업과는 달리 은행규제기관의 부채비율 및 자산위험도에 대한 규제압력이 소위 암묵적 규제비용으로 작용하여 은행의 적정자본금비율은 부채(예금)를 통한 자금조달의 한계세금혜택과 이에 따른 한계규제바용이 동일하게 되는 경우에 결정된다. 밀러의 단순균형 모델하에서 한계세금혜택이 없는 것과는 달리 은행의 부채조달에 따른 한계규제비용이 존재하는 이유로 균형조건으로 한계세금이익이 존재하게 된다. 이 경우 인플레이션은 예금자의 실질 세후 예금이자를 상승시키는 것 이상으로 은행의 실질 세후 예금이자 지급비용을 하락시키게 되어 은행의 부채비율을 더욱 높이게 되는 원인이 된다. 또한 은행의 부채비율이 인플레이션과 정(正)의 관계에 있다면 은행규제의 강도에 따라 이 상관계수는 은행자산의 위험도와도 역시 정(正)의 관계에 있게 된다. 미국은행을 대상으로 한 회귀분석에서도 그들의 부채(예금)비율이 기대 인플레이션과 정(正)의 상관관계가 있음이 나타났고 그 상관계수는 은행자산의 위험도와 동일 방향으로 움직임이 판명되었다.

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The Relationship between FDI and Economic Growth: Kazakhstan Case (해외직접 투자와 경제성장의 상호관계에 관한 연구: 카자흐스탄 사례연구)

  • Chang, Byeong-Yun;Kassymbekova, Assel
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we study the relationship between FDI(Foreign Direct Investment) and economic growth in Kazakhstan. For this research, we, first, investigate the factors that affect FDI infow to Kazakhstan since its independence and determine the degree of their influence. Second, we study the impact of FDI per capita on GDP per capita. To achieve these goals, an empirical study is conducted with 18 years data from 1992 to 2009 from World Bank Database. Data are analyzed using multiple linear regression, time series analysis and Granger causality test. The results show that the determinant of FDI is GDP and economic freedom index in Kazakhstan. Economic growth is affected by FDI, too. Specially, FDI is positively related to GDP and economic freedom index. FDI per capita's impact on GDP per capita is 30.4 dollars increase in GDP per capita by one dollar increase in FDI per capital inflow. The results provides useful information for policy makers to improve obtaining large amount of investments and facilitate economic growth.

Statistical methods for evaluating the tracking phenomenon of blood pressure (혈압의 역학적 연구와 지속성(tracking)에 대한 통계학적 분석)

  • Suh, Il;Nam, Chung-Mo;Kang, Hyung-Gon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.191-200
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    • 1993
  • This study introduced speical characteristics of an epidemiologic study on blood pressure and compared several statistical methods for evaluating the tracking phenomenon of blood pressure for Korean children. While correlation coefficients adjusted for measurement error are commonly used for the evaluation of tracking, it is hard to interpretate the results when correlation functions for lag-difference are not monotonous. McMahan defined a tracking as maintenance of relative rank over time and calculated tracking index usng growth curve model. The tracking index in McMahan's model is complicate to calculate, and it is hard to determine the degree of growth curve parameter. Blomqvist showed the relationship between the rate of change and the initial value. This concept could be extended for the evaluation of tracking. However, it is not so easy to interpretate the estimates in his model when those are non-positive.

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The Major Common Technology Field Analysis of Domestic Mobile Carriers based on Patent Information Data (특허 자료 정보 기반 국내 이동통신 사업자 주요 공통 기술 분야 분석)

  • Kim, Jang-Eun;Cho, Yu-Seup;Kim, Young-Rae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.723-737
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    • 2017
  • In order to decide the national technical standards policy for national policy/market economy activities, the people in charge commonly make policy decisions based on the current technology level/concentration/utilization by means of major common technology field analysis using patent data. One possible source of such patent data is the domestic mobile carriers through the Korea Intellectual Property Rights Information System (KIPRIS) of the Korean Intellectual Property Office (KIPO). Using this system, we collected 20,294 patents and 152 International Patent Classification (IPC) types and confirmed KTs (9,738 cases / 47.98%), which perform relatively high technology retention activities compared to other mobile carriers through the KIPRIS of KIPO. Based on these data, we performed three analyses (SNA, PCA, ARIMA) and extracted 30 IPC types from the SNA and 4 IPC types from the PCA. Based on the above analysis results, we confirmed that 4 IPC (H04W, H04B, G06Q, H04L) types are the major common technology field of the domestic mobile carriers. Finally, the number of 4 IPC (H04W, H04B, G06Q, H04L) forecast averages of the ARIMA forecast result is lower than the number of existing time series patent data averages.

A Dynamic Analysis of Import Price of Roundwood (원목수입가격(原木輸入價格)의 동태적(動態的) 분석(分析))

  • Han, Sang-Yoel;Kim, Tae-Kyun;Cho, Jae-Hwan;Choi, Kwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.88 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 1999
  • The dynamic relationships among import prices of roundwood are analyzed using the time series approach. A vector autoregression(VAR) model is estimated for six import prices(New Zealand, Chile, Russia, U.S.A., PNG, and Malaysia). Then Granger's causality test, variance decomposition analysis, and impulse response function analysis are also conducted. The major results are summarized as follows : (1) The prices of New Zealand and Russia are caused by only own lagged prices. (2) The prices of Chile and PNG are effected by New Zealand, the price of PNG is effected by New Zealand and Russia, and the price of U.S.A. is effected by those of Chile and PNG, respectively. (3) An exogenous shock in New Zealand will affect the prices of New Zealand, PNG, U.S.A., Chile, Russia. (4) An exogenous shock in Chile may also affect the prices of Chile, U.S.A., Russia.

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The Impact of Nuclear Power Generation on Wholesale Electricity Market Price (원자력발전이 전력가격에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Jung, Sukwan;Lim, Nara;Won, DooHwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.629-655
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    • 2015
  • Nuclear power generation is a major power source which accounts for more than 30% of domestic electricity generation. Electricity market needs to secure stability of base load. This study aimed at analyzing relationships between nuclear power generation and wholesale electricity price (SMP: System Marginal Price) in Korea. For this we conducted ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach and Granger causality test. We found that in terms of total effects nuclear power supply had a positive relationship with SMP while nuclear capacity had a negative relationship with SMP. There is a unidirectional Granger causality from nuclear power supply to SMP while the reverse was not. Nuclear power is closely related to SMP and provides useful information for decision making.

A Study on Korean FDI in China by Industries and Intra Industry Trade between Two Countries (한국의 대 중국 업종별 FDI와 산업내무역에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Seong Ki;Kang, Han Gyoun
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.759-780
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of Korean FDI(1990-2008) in China by industries on exports and imports between two countries. We use time series regression, Vector Error Correction Model and Impulse Response Function as methodologies. Our findings through empirical tests are as follows. First Korean FDI in China increases Korean exports with China but shows a tendency to decrease due to the local content of China. Second Korean FDI in China increases Korean imports in SITC 8 with China. Finally Korean trade surplus caused by Korean FDI in China shrinks due to the decreasing of exports and increasing of imports in Korea. Korean FDI in China should be oriented host country's market oriented rather than production efficiency oriented because of unfriendly foreign investment environments in China.

Multifractal Stochastic Processes and Stock Prices (다중프랙탈 확률과정과 주가형성)

  • Rhee, Il-King
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.95-126
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    • 2003
  • This paper introduces multifractal processes and presents the empirical investigation of the multifractal asset pricing. The multifractal stock price process contains long-tails which focus on Levy-Stable distributions. The process also contains long-dependence, which is the characteristic feature of fractional Brownian motion. Multifractality introduces a new source of heterogeneity through time-varying local reqularity in the price path. This paper investigates multifractality in stock prices. After finding evidence of multifractal scaling, the multifractal spectrum is estimated via the Legendre transform. The distinguishing feature of the multifractal process is multiscaling of the return distribution's moments under time-resealing. More intensive study is required of estimation techniques and inference procedures.

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A Study of Influence about Life Insurance Asset Management to Interest Decline (금리하락이 생명보험회사 자산운용실태에 미치는 영향)

  • Jung, Hee-seog;Kim, Sun-Je
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.99-116
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this paper is to see what the problem is and what the direction of the strategy of asset management after this study has analyzed asset management status of domestic life insurance companies according to interest rate trends, analyzing in time series management asset lists, asset distribution state, and securities list of life insurance companies during 2000~2014. It has carried correlation analysis and regression analysis between yield and bond interest KOSPI index. As the study result, life insurance companies have managed assets in stability than profitability. The correlation coefficient between interest rate and performance rates of total asset, management asset and securities is highly plus, correlation of management asset performance rate is higher than that of total asset performance rate, and the correlation of securities performance rate is higher than that of management asset performance rate. The correlation coefficient of KOSPI and performance rate shows minus. The suggestion is that the change of asset management is required as the interest decline rises up a reverse margin risk because of the asset management of stability.