• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1-14
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• 2022

This study aims to identify topics in newspaper articles related to fine particle matter and to investigate the characteristics and time series trend of each topic. Related national newspaper articles during 1990 and 2021 were collected from Bigkinds. A total of 18 topics have been discovered using LDA, and 11 clusters deduced from clustering. Hot topics include related products/residence, overseas cause(China), power plant as a domestic cause, nationwide emergency reduction measures, international cooperation, political issues, current situation & countermeasure in other countries, and consumption patterns. Cold topics include the concentration standard and indoor air quality improvement. These findings would be useful in inferring the political direction and strategies. In particular, the consumer protection policy should be expanded as the related market is growing. It will also be necessary to pursue policies that will promote public safety and health, and that will enhance public consensus and international cooperation.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.85-94
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• 2010

In this paper, we propose a location-prediction structure that can provide user service in advance. It consists of seven steps and supplies intelligent services which can forecast user's location. Context information collected from physical sensors and a history database is so difficult that it can't present importance of data and abstraction of data because of heterogeneous data type. Hence, we offer the location-prediction that change data type from heterogeneous data to homogeneous data. Extracted data is clustered by SOFM, then it gets user's location information by ARIMA and realizes the services by a reasoning engine. In order to validate the proposed location-prediction, we built a test-bed and test it by the scenario.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.63-89
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• 2007

This study aims at empirically verifying whether long memory properties exist in returns and volatility of the financial time series and then, empirically observing influential factors of long-memory properties. The presence of long memory properties in the financial time series is examined with the Hurst exponent. The Hurst exponent is measured by DFA(detrended fluctuation analysis). The empirical results are summarized as follows. First, the presence of significant long memory properties is not identified in return time series. But, in volatility time series, as the Hurst exponent has the high value on average, a strong presence of long memory properties is observed. Then, according to the results empirically confirming influential factors of long memory properties, as the Hurst exponent measured with volatility of residual returns filtered by GARCH(1, 1) model reflecting properties of volatility clustering has the level of $H{\approx}0.5$ on average, long memory properties presented in the data before filtering are no longer observed. That is, we positively find out that the observed long memory properties are considerably due to volatility clustering effect.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.106 no.3
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• pp.310-319
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• 2017

This study categorized the damaged trees by Supervised Classification using time-series-aerial photographs of Bukhan, Cheonggae and Suri mountains because oak wilt disease seemed to be concentrated in the metropolitan regions. In order to analyze the spatial characteristics of the damaged areas, the geographical characteristics such as elevation and slope were statistically analyzed to confirm their strong correlation. Based on the results from the statistical analysis of Moran's I, we have retrieved the following: (i) the value of Moran's I in Bukhan mountain is estimated to be 0.25, 0.32, and 0.24 in 2009, 2010 and 2012, respectively. (ii) the value of Moran's I in Cheonggye mountain estimated to be 0.26, 0.32 and 0.22 in 2010, 2012 and 2014, respectively and (iii) the value of Moran's I in Suri mountain estimated to be 0.42 and 0.42 in 2012 and 2014. respectively. These numbers suggest that the damaged trees are distributed in clusters. In addition, we conducted hotspot analysis to identify how the damaged tree clusters shift over time and we were able to verify that hotspots move in time series. According to our research outcome from the analysis of the entire hotspot areas (z-score>1.65), there were 80 percent probability of oak wilt disease occurring in the broadleaf or mixed-stand forests with elevation of 200~400 m and slope of 20~40 degrees. This result indicates that oak wilt disease hotspots can occur or shift into areas with the above geographical features or forest conditions. Therefore, this research outcome can be used as a basic resource when predicting the oak wilt disease spread-patterns, and it can also prevent disease and insect pest related harms to assist the policy makers to better implement the necessary solutions.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.792-808
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• 2016

Due to the high importance of foreign trade in the national economy, Korea has a lot of ports designated as trade ports compared to the small land size. However, because of the poor utilization results, some small trade ports have been criticized for wasteful financing due to redundant investment in SOC. This is because the characteristics and comparative advantage of foreign trade in trade ports have not been analyzed in detail by region. Therefore, this study analyzes the patterns and types of change in the size of trade, number of cargo items handled, and the number of trade target countries in the past 20 years for 19 domestic small trade ports using the time-series cluster analysis technique. As a result of analysis, Korean small trade ports were classified into five growth pattern types according to the analysis index, and characteristics and implications for each type could be derived. Today, as the foreign trade environment changes drastically and the importance of balanced regional development is emphasized, it is very important to study the growth types and implications of small trade ports and the results of this study are expected to provide meaningful implications for regional port development and operation in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.2
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• pp.107-119
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• 2020

This study analyzed past drought characteristics based on the observed rainfall data and performed a long-term outlook for future extreme droughts using Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) used duration of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, a meteorological drought index, was applied for quantitative drought analysis. A single long-term time series was constructed by combining daily rainfall observation data and RCP scenario. The constructed data was used as SPI input factors for each different duration. For the analysis of meteorological drought observed relatively long-term since 1954 in Korea, 12 rainfall stations were selected and applied 10 general circulation models (GCM) at the same point. In order to analyze drought characteristics according to climate change, trend analysis and clustering were performed. For non-stationary frequency analysis using sampling technique, we adopted the technique DEMC that combines Bayesian-based differential evolution ("DE") and Markov chain Monte Carlo ("MCMC"). A non-stationary drought frequency analysis was used to derive Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves for the 12 locations. A quantitative outlook for future droughts was carried out by deriving SDF curves with long-term hydrologic data assuming non-stationarity, and by quantitatively identifying potential drought risks. As a result of performing cluster analysis to identify the spatial characteristics, it was analyzed that there is a high risk of drought in the future in Jeonju, Gwangju, Yeosun, Mokpo, and Chupyeongryeong except Jeju corresponding to Zone 1-2, 2, and 3-2. They could be efficiently utilized in future drought management policies.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.111-124
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• 2010

To monitor the environment of land surface change is considered as an important research field since those parameters are related with land use, climate change, meteorological study, agriculture modulation, surface energy balance, and surface environment system. For the change detection, many different methods have been presented for distributing more detailed information with various tools from ground based measurement to satellite multi-spectral sensor. Recently, using high resolution satellite data is considered the most efficient way to monitor extensive land environmental system especially for higher spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, we use two different spatial resolution satellites; the one is SPOT/VEGETATION with 1 km spatial resolution to detect coarse resolution of the area change and determine objective threshold. The other is Landsat satellite having high resolution to figure out detailed land environmental change. According to their spatial resolution, they show different observation characteristics such as repeat cycle, and the global coverage. By correlating two kinds of satellites, we can detect land surface change from mid resolution to high resolution. The K-mean clustering algorithm is applied to detect changed area with two different temporal images. When using solar spectral band, there are complicate surface reflectance scattering characteristics which make surface change detection difficult. That effect would be leading serious problems when interpreting surface characteristics. For example, in spite of constant their own surface reflectance value, it could be changed according to solar, and sensor relative observation location. To reduce those affects, in this study, long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with solar spectral channels performed for atmospheric and bi-directional correction from SPOT/VEGETATION data are utilized to offer objective threshold value for detecting land surface change, since that NDVI has less sensitivity for solar geometry than solar channel. The surface change detection based on long-term NDVI shows improved results than when only using Landsat.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.