• Title/Summary/Keyword: 순서형 확률모형

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A Methodology for Driving Risk Evaluation Based on Driving Speed Choice (Focusing on Impacts of Providing In-vehicle Traffic Warning Information) (주행속도선택 기반 주행위험도 평가방법론 개발 (차내 교통안전정보 제공 효과 평가를 중심으로))

  • Kim, Won-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2011
  • This paper presents a Driving Risk Model (DRM) based on driving speed choices using an Ordered Response Probit (ORP) model. The DRM is conceptualized based on the relation between speed deviation and the occurrence of crashes found by Solomon. The impacts of various driving risk factors are revealed by applying the DRM to evaluate the effectiveness of In-Vehicle Traffic Warning Information (IVTWI) in expressway driving. Regarding driving risk, the results show that: (1) the risk is lower among male drivers, those with more driving experience and those with less accident history, (2) the risk is higher when driving takes place on wet road surface, in the afternoon, and under conditions of low traffic volume, and (3) the risk is also higher on both downgraded and long curve sections. Additionally, the results provide evidence that provision of IVTWI can decrease the driving risk. The proposed DRM provides a solution for assessing the traffic safety impacts of countermeasures on roadways when there is a shortage of traffic accidents data.

Reasons for Violation of the Self Carfree Day Policy (승용차요일제 준수와 위반에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Bin, Mi-Yeong;Jeong, Ui-Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2010
  • This research is to analyze reasons for violation of the Self Carfree day policy. It also analyzes satisfaction of the policy participation incentives. The results are that the violation rate is increasing if the drivers live in a zone which is highly energy consuming, which has low potential demand per bus stop and low trip generation per number of houses, which therefore requires more bus routes and bus services, and in which the drivers pay more car operating fees and show less tendancy towards participation even with the 5-10% oil price increase. The results are significant at the 0.05 level.

A Study on Housing Affordability of Elderly Households According to Household Types and Housing Tenure (노년층의 가구구성 및 주택점유형태에 따른 주거비 부담능력에 관한 분석)

  • Kwon, Yeon Hwa;Choi, Yeol
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.977-986
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to find the housing affordability of elderly household according to household types and housing tenure and to contribute to desirable elderly housing policies. The data from the 2010 Korea Housing Survey was used for the analysis of this study and the final sample included 6,780 elderly households. The results of this study are summarized as follows; It was found that all kinds of elderly household for housing affordability were affected by income, residence period, housing location and size of house. And housing location was a highly influential factor. Besides, female elderly house-owners and male elderly renters living alone were likely to have higher housing cost burden. And if elderly renters households suffer more financial burden, they had have higher housing cost burden. It is implies that desirable elderly housing polices by government need to consider elderly househod's diverse characteristics in aged society.

A Study on Retailers' Recognition about Commercial Power Altering Due to Urban Regeneration Project : Case of Changwon Urban Regeneration Priority Project (도시재생사업에 따른 상인들의 상권 변화 인식에 관한 연구 : 창원시 도시재생 선도사업 사례)

  • Park, Jin Ho;Choi, Yeol
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.771-782
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze local retailers' recognition of commercial power altered by urban regeneration. For the purpose of this study, analysis is performed on pilot urban regeneration priority projects implemented in the city of Changwon. Although regeneration of commercial districts directly affect the local retailers therein, little research has been carried out to examine how they recognize such changes. This study, therefore, identifies those factors that have influence on the recognition of local retailers who would be aware of the alteration of their commercial power more immediately than others do. Using an ordered logit model, empirical analysis on two pilot projects for Odong-dong and Chang-dong indicates that retailers in Odong-dong are more likely to have a negative recognition toward the altered business areas. For the both districts, recognition of business area alterations is affected with statistical significance by how long they have run their shops, how many employees they hire, and whether they believe that the urban regeneration has resulted in gentrification. For each of the mentioned district, recognition in Odong-dong is significantly impacted by the number of employees and recognized rent changes, while in Chang-dong, the age of retailers and the perceived presence of gentrification have statistically significant influence. Issues found by this study need to be addressed prior to the upcoming 'Urban Regeneration New Deal Project', which then will bring satisfaction to each and every local residents including those retailers.

Analysis of Traffic Safety Effectiveness of Vehicle Seat-belt Wearing Detection System (주행차량 안전벨트 착용 검지시스템 교통안전 효과 분석)

  • Ji won Park;Su bin Park;Sang cheol Kang;Cheol Oh
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.53-73
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    • 2023
  • Although it is mandatory to wear a seat belt that can minimize human injury when traffic accident occurs, the number of traffic accident casualties not wearing seat belts still accounts for a significant proportion.The seat belt wearing detection system for all seats is a system that identifies whether all seat passengers wear a seat belt and encourages their usage, also it can be a useful technical countermeasure. Firstly, this study established the viability of system implementation by assessing the factors influencing the severity of injuries in traffic accidents through the development of an ordered probit model. Analysis results showed that the use of seat belts has statistically significant effects on the severity of traffic accidents, reducing the probability of death or serious injury by 0.054 times in the event of a traffic accident. Secondly, a meta-analysis was conducted based on prior research related to seat belts and injuries in traffic accidents to estimate the expected reduction in accident severity upon the implementation of the system.The analysis of the effect of accident severity reduction revealed that wearing seat belts would lead to a 63.3% decrease in fatal accidents, with the front seats showing a reduction of 75.7% and the rear seats showing a reduction of 58.1% in fatal accidents. Lastly, Using the results of the meta-analysis and traffic accident statistics, the expected decrease in the number of traffic accident casualties with the implementation of the system was derived to analyze the traffic safety effects of the proposed detection system. The analysis demonstrated that with an increase in the adoption rate of the system, the number of casualties in accidents where seat belts were not worn decreased. Specifically, at a system adoption rate of 60%, it is anticipated that the number of fatalities would decrease by more than three times compared to the current scenario. Based on the analysis results, operational strategies for the system were proposed to increase seat belt usage rates and reduce accident severity.