• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
• /
• 2016.11a
• /
• pp.259-260
• /
• 2016

어린이의 경우 다른 연령층에 비해 신체적, 정신적으로 완성되지 못하여 교통사고의 가능성이 높으며, 특히 전국의 어린이 교통사고는 점진적으로 감소 추세이나 인천의 어린이 교통사고는 감소하다가 다시 증가 추세에 들어선 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구의 목적은 어린이 교통사고 심각도에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인들을 발견하고 제시하고자 하였다. 순서형 로지스틱 회귀분석을 활용하여 순서척도인 반응변수에 대한 설명변수의 오즈(Odds)를 확인하고자 하였으며 안전운전불이행, 차대사람(횡단중), 차대차(측면직각충돌)사고가 유의한 결과로 나타났다. 안전운전불이행으로 인한 사망사고와 기타사고의 오즈차이는 1.35배, 측면직각충돌로 인한 사망사고와 기타사고의 오즈차이는 1.76배 증가하는 것으로 나타났고, 횡단중인 경우에는 오히려 사망 위험도의 오즈값이 0.58배로 감소하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
• /
• 2005.11a
• /
• pp.101-105
• /
• 2005

호남지역에 대한 대설특보 예보를 위한 통계모형 개발을 수행하였다. 일 신적설량에 따라 세법주(0: 비발생, 1: 대설주의보, 2: 대설경보)로 구분되는 순서형 자료 형태를 지니고 있다. 두가지 통계 모형(다등급 로지스틱 회귀모형, 신경회로망 모형)을 고려하였으며, 수치모델 출력자료를 이용한 역학-통계모형 기법의 하나인 MOS(model output statistics)를 적용하여 축적된 수치모델 예보자료와 관측치의 관계를 통계모형식으로 추정하여 예측모형을 개발하였다. 군집분석을 사용하여 훈련자료와 검증자료를 구분하였으며, 예보치 생성을 위하여 문턱치를 고려하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2023.05a
• /
• pp.156-157
• /
• 2023

중앙해양안전심판원의 연간 통계에 따르면 어선의 충돌사고가 전체 충돌사고 중 과반 이상을 점유한다. 충돌사고에서 어선은 타선종보다 규모가 작고 빠른 속력으로 통항함에 따라 중대 사고의 비율도 높다. 이에 따라 충돌요인을 기반으로 한 사고 심각도간의 관계 규명이 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 도로 교통공학에서 다루고 있는 유효충돌속도의 개념을 활용하여, 어선 충돌 시 유효충돌속도를 산출하는 방법을 제시하였다. 그리고 유효충돌속도가 증가할수록 사고 선체 손상 심각도가 증가하는지를 확인하기 위해, 순서형 로지스틱 회귀분석 방법으로 중앙해양안전심판원 해양사고 재결서 5년간(2016~2020년)의 데이터 286건을 분석하였다. 분석결과, 충돌 당시 산출된 유효충돌속도가 클수록 중손과 전손사고의 확률은 증가하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구 결과는 추후 유효충돌속도를 기반으로 한 어선의 적정항행 속력이나 제한 속력의 제한 등에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.11-24
• /
• 2017

Although many efforts to stop speeding or inappropriate speed, it failed to reduce the number of speeding-related crashes. Therefore, it is important to analyze the characteristics of speeding offenders and the cause of speeding at hot spots. In this study, we investigate the level of severity in speeding by the characteristics of speeding offenders using the Ordered Logistics Regression Models(OLRM). For the analysis, we use the speeding data collected by 39 traffic enforcement cameras in city of Cheongju and other related data including the speeding ticket history of drivers during the most recent 3 years, their demographic characteristics, their own vehicles, and road environment factors. The major results of this study are as follows. Firstly, commercial fleet drivers are more likely to repeat the conviction of high-range speeding with more than 30km/h over speed limits than other drivers. Secondly, mid-range speeding are observed as 21,462 frequency which is 76.7% of total speeding frequency and occurred mostly at suburban and rural area. It concludes that contributory factors affecting the severity of speeding at signalized intersection are drivers' speeding offence history, posted speed limits, time of day, gender of driver, and location of the intersection as show by the OLRM developed in this study(McFadden R-square : 0.296).

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.31 no.6
• /
• pp.53-66
• /
• 2013

The major purpose of this study is to evaluate methodologies to predict the injury severity of pedestrian-vehicle collisions. Methodologies to be evaluated and compared in this study include Binary Logistic Regression(BLR), Ordered Probit Model(OPM), Support Vector Machine(SVM) and Decision Tree(DT) method. Valuable insights into applying methodologies to analyze the characteristics of pedestrian injury severity are derived. For the purpose of identifying causal factors affecting the injury severity, statistical approaches such as BLR and OPM are recommended. On the other hand, to achieve better prediction performance, heuristic approaches such as SVM and DT are recommended. It is expected that the outcome of this study would be useful in developing various countermeasures for enhancing pedestrian safety.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2021.06a
• /
• pp.348-348
• /
• 2021

가뭄 연구의 궁극적 목표는 가뭄 발생의 메커니즘에 대한 이해를 높이고, 예측기술을 향상시켜 선제적 대응이 가능하도록 하는 것이다. 일반적으로 가뭄분석에 활용되는 가뭄지표는 연속형 변수로 간주하여 확률모형을 구축하지만, 가뭄상태와 가뭄피해 자료는 순서형 및 이산형 변수이므로 범주형 자료 분석 기법을 적용하는 것이 더 적절하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기상학적 가뭄과 피해발생 사이의 관계를 규명하기 위해 범주형 자료 분석 방법 중 로그선형(log-linear) 모형과 로지스틱(logistic) 회귀모형을 활용하였다. 가뭄피해 예측을 위한 가뭄 피해 정보를 수집하는 것은 매우 어려운 일이다. 가뭄의 영향으로 인해 발생할 수 있는 피해의 종류가 다양하며, 여러 분야의 이해관계자가 받아들이는 가뭄의 피해 양상이 다르기 때문이다. 본 연구에서는 국가가뭄정보포털(drought.go.kr)에서 충청북도의 가뭄피해현황 자료를 수집하였다. 30년(1991~2020년)동안 238개 읍면동 중 34개 행정구역에서 총 272건의 가뭄피해가 발생한 것으로 확인되었다. 표준강수지수(SPI)를 이용하여 분석된 지역별 연평균 가뭄발생횟수는 약 8.44회이며, 가뭄이 가장 많이 발생한 해는 2001년(평균 가뭄발생 18.7회)이었다. 강수의 부족으로 인해 발생하는 기상학적 가뭄이 사회경제적 피해를 야기하는 수문학적 가뭄으로 전이되기까지 몇 주에서 몇 달까지 시간이 소요된다. 이러한 관계를 파악하기 위해 가뭄피해 발생 여부를 예측변수, 가뭄피해 발생 이전의 가뭄상태를 설명변수로 설정하여 기상학적 가뭄 발생에 따른 가뭄피해 발생 확률을 산정하였다. 그 결과 가뭄피해 발생 당시의 가뭄상태보다 그 이전에 연속된 가뭄상태가 있을 경우 가뭄피해 발생 확률이 약 2.5배 상승하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
• /
• v.35 no.2
• /
• pp.59-71
• /
• 2019

Korea's average annual working hours are among the highest in the OECD. Such long-term work has been a factor that reduces the quality of life by discouraging workers' productivity and interrupting the compatibility of work and family, prompting the government to encourage flexible work systems, such as increasing part-time jobs, but a lack of quality part-time jobs. Part-time work enables flexible labor for workers, but at the same time, workers will involuntarily opt for part-time work as they have poor working conditions and negative social views. In this respect, the effect of the working type on an individual's life is expected to be different. In addition, for women, gender gaps exist in the labor market and the impact of part-time work on life satisfaction is expected to differ from men in terms of working and family alike. Using the data from the 2017 "Seoul Survey Urban Policy Indicator Survey", the ordered logistic regression model was used to analyze the cross-effect of working type and sex on satisfaction. The analysis of the study showed that when other factors were controlled, life satisfaction was high in the order of fulltime female, full-time male, part-time female, and part-time male. In addition, further analysis shows that the parttime female workers have the highest probability of choosing low life satisfaction, while the probability of choosing high life satisfaction is the lowest, and full-time male workers have the lowest probability of choosing low life satisfaction, while the highest probability of choosing high life satisfaction is the highest.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.1-11
• /
• 2023

COVID-19 has caused the dramatic reduction of public transportation demand in Busan Metropolitan City, that is, daily public transportation trips in 2020 dropped by approximately 920,000 trips from 2019 based on the public transportation card data. This study investigated the underlying factors affecting the public transportation demand discrepancy between before and after COVID-19 at the primary administration unit(i.e., Eup, Myeon, Dong) level with Ordered Logistic Regression model. Finding of this study is as follows. The primary administration units characterized with high ratio of welfare recipients, industrial area, and day boarders were heavily dependent on public transit, indicating little change in public transportation demand. On the other hands, the primary administration units which have high ratio of urban rail transit uses experienced significant reduction of public transportation demand. In conclusion, transportation policies taken under emergent situation such as COVID-19 need to take into account the region-based characteristics rather than unilateral ones.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.42 no.4
• /
• pp.591-597
• /
• 2022

As social anxiety is increasing due to the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the responses at the level of local governments are also changing depending on the characteristics. We analyzed the factors influencing perceptions of social safety as they relate to the trustworthiness of local governments. Based on a 2020 social survey of 16 cities, counties, and districts in Busan Metropolitan City, the effects of householder characteristics, economic characteristics, local attachment characteristics, and social safety perception characteristics on the reliability of the local government were analyzed through an ordinal logistic regression analysis. It was found that the more vulnerable the class was and the safer the region was, the higher the trust was in the basic local government. In order to respond and preemptively recover damage in natural and social disaster situations, continuous efforts are needed to strengthen the capabilities of basic local governments.

• Journal of Korea Planning Association
• /
• v.54 no.3
• /
• pp.49-62
• /
• 2019

In order to balance with supply policy, public housing management and operation policies have been implemented in terms of housing welfare, but citizens have not yet achieved the results that the citizens are experiencing. The purpose of this study is to analysis the residential satisfaction of the including the housing performance through the characteristics of the public housing residents in Seoul. The data used in this study is based on the survey data of public housing panel survey in Seoul (2016). The study method used ordered logistic regression analysis based on the fact that dependent variables appeared as ordered responses. Major research results are as follows. Firstly, housing performance and residential satisfaction may not match. Even though the satisfaction of housing area, type, and management fee is high, satisfaction with residential environment is low if commuting distance, the number of small libraries, and hospitals are small. Secondly, it showed different characteristics of residential environment factors among types of public housing. Rather than focusing on supply, customized supply is needed considering characteristics of public housing types. Thirdly, the policy for public housing needs to be realized by a fair policy on the residential environment. It is necessary to contribute to better housing stability as a customized policy considering the local residential environment.