• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.25 no.9
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• pp.1234-1243
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• 2021

This study intends to provide a forecast of the diffusion of countries participating in a newly proposed G to G mechanism named as the "International Defense Industry Cooperation Program of Korea", modeled after the U.S. Foreign Military Sales(FMS). For this purpose, the study analyses 40 years of statistical data of U.S. FMS customers to find two parameters, coefficient of innovation and imitation, which explain the diffusion in FMS customers. Furthermore, the study forecasts the diffusion in international participation to the proposed mechanism taking account of the differences in the level of government competitiveness and the strength of defense industrial base of Korea and the U.S. This study also provides recommendations for accelerating the desired outcomes under the new program. While Korea is likely to have relative advantages over 'imitators' in the international market, it will need to gain competitiveness in high-level capabilities going beyond the realm of medium-high level systems, and present attractive alternatives for offsets.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.14 no.spc
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• pp.1232-1255
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• 2011

This paper proposes a model for demand forecasting that will require less effort in the process of utilizing the new product diffusion model while also allowing for more objective and timely application. Drawing upon the theoretical foundation provided by the hype cycle model and the consumer adoption model, this proposed model makes it possible to estimate the maximum market potential based solely on bibliometrics and the scale of the early market, thereby presenting a method for supplying the major parameters required for the Bass model. Upon analyzing the forecasting ability of this model by applying it to the case of the hybrid car market, the model was confirmed to be capable of successfully forecasting results similar in scale to the market potential deduced through various other objective sources of information, thus underscoring the potentials of utilizing this model. Moreover, even the hype cycle or the life cycle can be estimated through direct linkage with bibliometrics and the Bass model. In cases where the hype cycles of other models have been observed, the forecasting ability of this model was demonstrated through simple case studies. Since this proposed model yields a maximum market potential that can also be applied directly to other growth curve models, the model presented in the following paper provides new directions in the endeavor to forecast technology diffusion and identify promising technologies through bibliometrics.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.193-212
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• 2022

The Bass Diffusion Model is one of the most successful models in marketing research, and management science in general. Since its publication in 1969, it has guided marketing research on diffusion. This paper illustrates the usage of the Bass diffusion model, using mobile cellular subscription diffusion as a context. We fit the bass diffusion model to three large developed markets, South Korea, Japan, and China, and the emerging markets of Vietnam, Thailand, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. We estimate the parameters of the bass diffusion model using the nonlinear least square method. The diffusion of mobile cellular subscriptions does follow an S-curve in every case. After acquiring m, p, and q parameters we use k-Means Cluster Analysis for grouping countries into three groups. By clustering countries, we suggest that diffusion rates and patterns are similar, where countries with emerging markets can follow in the footsteps of countries with developed markets. The purpose was to predict the timing and the magnitude of the market maturity and to determine whether the data follow the typical diffusion curve of innovations from the Bass model.

• CRM연구
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.49-69
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• 2006

Previous studies, Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Post Acceptance Model (PAM) have a little limitation in time series analysis. To solve this limitation, we used system dynamics as research methodology and designed simulation model based on TAM and PAM. Moreover, we designed new simulation model which can analyize time series data in customers' demand change from initial acceptance to post acceptance. This study targeted domestic mobile phone market. The simulation results showed that diffusion graph was similar to real data. That means we validated our simulation model. Since the simulation model offers the graph of customer's demand change by time, so it can be useful as a leaning tool. Therefore, we think this study helps IT companies use the model for forecasting of market demand.

• 한국공간정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.06a
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• pp.87-94
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• 2007

지자체 GIS 정보화가 확산되어감에 따라 구축된 공간정보의 활용확산, 타 정보와의 연계 등의 요구가 증대되고 있으며 지자체 GIS 통합 연계는 지자체 정보화의 핵심으로 부각되고 있다. 그러나 많은 지자체에서는 도로, 상하수도 등 공간정보 수요가 높은 업무 분야를 중심으로 지자체 GIS 통합연계를 추진하고 있으며, 지자체 지리정보 담당부서의 중심으로 추진되고 있어 지자체 전 부서 대상의 공간정보 활용에 대한 한계가 있다. 이러한 한계를 극복하기 위해선 지자체 내 전부서에서의 공간정보 활용을 위한 지자체 GIS 통합연계 고도화 모델이 필요하다. 지자체 GIS 통합연계 고도화 모델은 지자체 지리 정보 담당부서 중심의 통합연계에서 확대하여 지자체 전 부서 및 국가적 차원에서의 협력체계를 고려한 모델로서 지자체의 수평적 수직적 통합연계 모델이다.

• Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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• v.5 no.1 s.9
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• pp.13-25
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• 2003

The advent of LBS is caused by mobility advantage of wireless internet. The mobility has the information such as location which is based on LBS(Location based Services). It comes out as a killer application for wireless internet when market of wireless internet is diffused. In this paper, we build up the technical model and survey the requirement of technologies related LBS expanded as wireless internet services rapidly. First, we construct the conceptual model for LBS based on functions of LBS and characteristics of foreign models. This model is consisted of generalized components of LBS and can be used as a basic model to survey the requirement of each technologies. Second, we survey the demand of each technology for LBS. Then we analyze the importance of technologies for LBS to prepare developing various LBS. From this research, we can introduce proper plans and policy for LBS to develop technology stepwise, to promote industry activities and how to make up the foundation for LBS by government.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.109-118
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to deliver both market-practical and civil-centric political implication for sharing economy by investigating the nature of consumer-adoption for car-sharing service. With the global interest and market proliferation of the sharing economy, various service models for sharing idle resources have also been released in Korea. Particularly, in case of car sharing service, public - private partnership projects are spreading rapidly in various local governments including Seoul, along with the growing demand for alternative transportation system centering on the urban area. This study conducted an empirical study on the process of accepting the car sharing service by analyzing the data collected from users of the car sharing service "Sharing Car(Nanum Car)" of Seoul Metropolitan Government. A survey was conducted on 281 users in their twenties who are in the age of main use among the experienced users of the "Sharing Car(NaNum)" residing in Seoul. The result of analysis on the relationship between these users' perceived value and intention to use the vehicle sharing service would provide implications for establishing consumer(citizen)-centeric policies as well as market implications.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• 1997.11a
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• pp.17-17
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• 1997

극초음속 여객기와 군사용 항공기에 대한 수요가 증가함에 따라서 새로운 개념의 다양한 추진기관이 연구가 진행되고 개발되어 왔다. 초음속 항공기의 속도 영역은 마하 10-20 정도가 되는데 이 속도 한계를 극복하기 위하여 초음속 연소 램제트 엔진(SCRamjet; Supersonic Combustion Ramjet)이 제안되었다. 스크램 제트를 개발하기 위해서는 연료와 산화제의 혼합 효율 문제, 화염의 안정화 문제, 벽면의 냉각에 관한 문제 등 몇 가지 기본적인 문제들을 해결해야 한다. Univ of Michigan에서 실험한 연소기를 모델로 본 연구에서는 연료와 공기의 혼합에 관한 수치 연구를 수행하였다. 다원 혼합기체에 관한 축대칭 Navier-Stokes 방정식을 지배 방정식을 이용하였고 비평형 화학반응식을 고려하였다. 공간 차분에는 유한 체적법을 이용하였다. 대류 플럭스 항은 Roe의 Upwind FDS 기법을 사용하여 차분하였고 점성항에는 중심 차분법을 이용하였다. 시간 적분법으로는 근사 자코비안과 LU분할 기법을 이용한 완전 내재적 방법이 쓰였다. 난류 모델로는 Mentor에 의해 제안된 2 방정식 k-$\varepsilon$/k-$\omega$ 혼합모델을 사용하였다. 유동장이 실험에서의 찍은 사진과 유사한 모습의 충격파 간섭을 수치 모사하였고 수소가 확산되는 모습과 함께 노즐 lip 주위의 재순환 영역에 대해서 살펴볼 수 있었다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.132-140
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• 2019

Recently, many cities around the world introduced and operated shared bicycle system to reduce the traffic and air pollution. Seoul also provides shared bicycle service called as "Ddareungi" since 2015. As the use of shared bicycle increases, the demand for bicycle in each station is also increasing. In addition to the restriction on budget, however, there are managerial issues due to the different demands of each station. Currently, while bicycle rebalancing is used to resolve the huge imbalance of demands among many stations, forecasting uncertain demand at the future is more important problem in practice. In this paper, we develop forecasting model for demand for Seoul shared bicycle using statistical time series analysis and apply our model to the real data. In particular, we apply Holt-Winters method which was used to forecast electricity demand, and perform sensitivity analysis on the parameters that affect on real demand forecasting.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.157-165
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• 2016

Among high-tech products, the mobile phone has experienced a rapid rate of innovation and a shortening of its product life cycle. The shortened product life cycle poses major challenges to those involved in the creation of forecasting methods fundamental to strategic management and planning systems. This study examined whether the best model applies to the entire diffusion life span of a mobile phone. Mobile phone sales data from a specific mobile service provider in Korea from March of 2013 to August of 2014 were analyzed to compare the performance of two S-shaped diffusion models and two non-linear regression models, the Gompertz, logistic, Michaelis-Menten, and logarithmic models. The experimental results indicated that the logistic model outperforms the other three models over the fitted region of the diffusion. For forecasting, the logistic model outperformed the Gompertz model for the period prior to diffusion saturation, whereas the Gompertz model was superior after saturation approaches. This analysis may help those estimate the potential mobile phone market size and perform inventory and order management of mobile phones.