• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.223-232
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• 2008

It can be expected, recently, that the traffic congestion grows worse because the 48% of passenger cars are concentrated in the metropolitan area. However, there is an enforcement regulation that must limit onsite parking lot establishment in some downtown, so it is forecasted that parking lot supply is insufficient. Therefore, this study concentrate upon the subject that solves the problem which drivers are difficult to find parking lots because of increasing demand for parking. This study includes the concept about walking distance because the choice of parking lots is happened within walking distance. The algorithm of this study applies to toy-network, and then this study analyze the result of toy-network. It is proper to consider user's preference because the patterns of choice are different. Moreover, this study suggests the vision that will can offer drivers more correct information by real time information sharing in course of ubiquitous age.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-16
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• 2012

There is no doubt that the urban heat island (UHI) is a mounting problem in built-up environments, due to energy retention by the surface materials of dense buildings, leading to increased temperatures, air pollution, and energy consumption. To investigate the UHI, three-dimensional (3-D) information is necessary to analyze complex sites, including dense building clusters. In this research, 3-D building geometry information is combined with two-dimensional (2-D) urban surface information to examine the relationship between urban characteristics and temperature. In addition, this research introduces spatial regression models to account for the spatial spillover effects of urban temperatures, and includes the following steps: (a) estimating urban temperatures, (b) developing a 3-D city model, (c) generating urban parameters, and (d) conducting statistical analyses using both Ordinary Least-Squares (OLS) and Spatial Regression Models. The results demonstrate that 3-D urban characteristics greatly affect temperatures and that neighborhood effects are critical in explaining temperature variations. Finally, the implications of the results are discussed, providing guidelines for policies to reduce the UHI.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.540-552
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• 2011

Freight travel pattern has been less studied comparing with the field of passenger travel. Nonetheless, the importance of the freight travel has been increasing in urban travel sector, and the research needs on the freight travel demand hence is increasing. The current paper aims to identify, by tons of freight trucks and cargos, the characteristics of mean travel pattern, efficiency or performance, and the characteristics of freight trip chain regarding destination location, destination type and freight type. The study analyzed the nation-wide data of freight travel behavior survey. This study intended to set the starting framework of decision-making principle in freight travel, which has already been popular in passenger travel study. Findings suggest that those characteristics are clearly distinguished among trucks and cargos of different sizes of tons. The results are expected to provide important insight to the development of relevant transportation policy measures.

• Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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• 2016.02a
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• pp.262-262
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• 2016

최근 고해상도 디스플레이가 주목받으면서 기존 비정질 실리콘(a-Si)을 대체할 수 있는 재료에 관한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. a-Si의 경우 간단한 공정 과정, 적은 생산비용, 대면적화가 가능하다는 장점이 있지만 전자 이동도가 매우 낮은 단점이 있다. 반면, 산화물 반도체는 비정질 상태에서 전자 이동도가 높으며 큰 밴드갭을 가지고 있어 투명한 특성을 나타낼 뿐만 아니라, 저온공정이 가능하여 기판의 제한이 없는 장점을 가지고 있다. 대표적으로 가장 널리 연구되고 있는 산화물 반도체는 a-IGZO(amorphous indium-gallium-zinc oxide)이다. 그러나 InZnO(IZO) 기반의 산화물 반도체에서 carrier suppressor 역할을 하는 Ga(gallium)은 수요에 대한 공급이 원활하지 못하여 비싸다는 단점이 있다. 그러므로 경제적이면서 a-IGZO와 유사한 전기적 특성을 나타낼 수 있는 suppressor 물질이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 IZO 기반의 산화물 반도체에서 Ga을 Hf(hafnium), Zr(zirconium), Si(silicon)으로 대체하여 용액증착(solution-deposition) 공정으로 각각의 채널층을 형성한 back-gate type의 박막 트랜지스터(thin-film transistor, TFT) 소자를 제작하였다. 용액증착 공정은 물질의 비율을 자유롭게 조절할 수 있고, 대기압의 조건에서도 공정이 가능하기 때문에 짧은 공정시간과 저비용의 장점이 있다. 제작된 소자는 p-type Si 위에 게이트 절연막으로 100 nm의 열산화막이 성장된 기판을 사용하였다. 표준 RCA 클리닝 후에 각 solution 물질을 spin coating 방식으로 증착하였다. 이후, photolithography, develop, wet etching의 과정을 거쳐 채널층 패턴을 형성하였다. 또한, 산화물 반도체의 전기적 특성을 향상시키기 위해서 후속 열처리 과정(post deposition annealing, PDA)은 필수적이다. CTA 방식은 높은 열처리 온도와 긴 열처리 시간의 단점이 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 $100^{\circ}C$ 이하의 낮은 온도와 짧은 열처리 시간의 장점을 가지는 MWI (microwave irradiation)를 후속 열처리로 진행하였다. 그 결과, 각 물질로 구현된 소자들은 기존 a-IGZO와 비교하여 적은 양의 carrier suppressor로도 우수한 전기적 특성 및 안정성을 얻을 수 있었다. 따라서, Si, Hf, Zr 기반의 산화물 반도체는 기존의 Ga을 대체하여 저비용으로 디스플레이를 구현할 수 있는 IZO 기반 재료로 기대된다.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.29-34
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• 2016

Nowadays, real-time devices that provide health care for a companion animal is being developed by IoT technology and its demand such as smart puppy tag is increasing. However, it is difficult for IoT devices of companion animals to process complex nature due to miniaturized hardware and constructive nature. There is a clear limit to custom advanced features like health care implementation. This paper designs an integrated platform with statistical analysis which makes it possible to customized services such as feed production, pharmaceutical production, and health care for each companion animal. Middleware that collects sensor information, customer's spending pattern and information from Social Network Service is also designed by making use of IoT devices which companion animals wear. Furthermore, the paper designed data analyzer which analyzes and refines data from collected information that can be applied to personalized services.

• 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2017.04a
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• pp.21-21
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• 2017

귀농귀촌 문화가 유행하고 농업의 미래 가치에 대한 인식이 변화되면서 농산업으로의 새로운 진출을 계획하는 인구가 늘고 있다. 우리의 농업은 자급자족경제로부터 상업경제로 발전되어 왔고, 글로벌 시장 개방 및 생산 기술의 지속적 발전으로 공급이 수요를 초과하며 가격이 점점하락하는 추세를 보이고 있다. 농업 현장의 여러 어려움에도 불구하고 농산업의 긍정적인 여건들도 형성되고 있다. 올바른 먹거리를 추구하는 식품 소비패턴의 변화, 환 생태 치유 자연에 대한 소비자의 관심고조, 스마트 팜과 같은 생산환경의 자동화, 지역 자원을 근거한 공동경영체 운영 등과 같은 현상이 두드러지게 나타나고 있다. 이러한 시점에 농산업분야에 새로이 진출하고자 하는 개인 또는 소규모 사업주체들은 자신의 사업에 대한 정체성을 이해하고, 효율적인 사업운영을 위한 차별화 전략을 확보할 필요가 있다. 본 연구는 개별 또는 소규모 조직의 농업인과 예비농업인들이 자신의 사업에 대한 정체성을 이해하고, 사업운영을 위한 전략 선택을 돕는 비즈니스모델 템플릿 개발을 목표로 하였다. 이를 위해 농업 전문가, 창업 전문가, 비즈니스모델 전문가 풀을 구성하여 농산업 특성을 이해하고 최근 농업 농촌에서 이슈가 되고 있는 농업비즈니스 트랜드를 분석하였다. 근거 자료 및 전문가 토론을 통해 농산업 비즈니스를 '시장가치 추구형', '사회적가치 추구형', '연대하는 시장가치 추구형', '연대하는 사회적가치 추구형'의 4가지 유형으로 구분하고, 각 유형별 사례기업을 조사하여 비즈니스모델을 분석하였다. 비즈니스모델은 비즈니스모델 젠 캔버스를 이용하여 표현하였다. 비즈니스모델 젠은 비즈니스 유형에 따라 일반 창업형, 협동조합형, 임팩트비즈니스형 등 차별화된 캔버스 모델을 제공하고 있으며, 고객중심의 비즈니스 관점을 보다 세밀히 제공하는 툴이다. 본 연구에서는 비즈니스모델 젠을 통해 4가지 유형의 농산업 비즈니스 모델을 분석하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 농산업에 진출하는 사업주체의 사업진행 방향 및 전략선택을 위한 교육 컨설팅 현장에서 널리 이용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.278-291
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• 2001

This paper is to build a spatial decision support system designed to solve problems relevant to the decision-making for retail center locations. For construction of the system this paper discusses the primary procedures of spatial modeling and issues of data, which are required for integrating spatial interaction models to GIS having capability of managing, analyzing and visualizing spatial data sets. Lexington, Kentucky, is selected as a case study to implement the spatial decision support system based on the spatial modeling module. This system for retail center locations is useful of estimating the catchment areas more accurately and analyzing resultant flow patterns. And this system can make spatial analysis efficiently for what-if scenarios such as an intended retail center or changing demand. The benefits of adopting this system allow the decision makers to plan the investment strategies and search for stable market structure.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.8 s.86
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• pp.139-145
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• 2005

`Influence Area` means the area that the traffic flow pattern of which is changed remarkably after the construction of highway facilities. The Influence area would be a significant criteria for demand forecasting and economic analysis. However existing methods for defining influence area such as O/D method, traffic volume variation method and rate of traffic volume variation method have no standard criteria. In this paper, some problems which existing methods have are analyzed and a new method travel time method - is introduced. Influence area can be induced as the area where the vehicles reach from starting traffic zone to ending zone to which 95 percentile vehicles want to travel. In addition, the value of standard criteria for defining influence ayes are induced via this method.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.44-50
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• 2010

Recently, the crude oil price per one barrel in 2005 cost 49.4 dollars. But the value of crude oil in 2007 had ascended 68.4 dollars which was skyrocketed 38.5[%] owing to the sudden rise of energy price. As it has been growing the necessity of energy efficiency, energy intentive companies actively try to implement energy management system It has been studied to improve the energy saving for household sector using the smart metering system which can give the information of energy prices, pattern on real time to energy consumers and voluntarily lead the activities of energy saving. In this paper, we estimated potential benefits and value of smart metering system through california test.