• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수명예측모델

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A Study on the Residual Stress Evaluation of Autofrettaged SCM440 High Strength Steel (자긴가공된 SCM440 고강도강의 잔류응력평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jae-Hoon;Shim, Woo-Sung;Yoon, Young-Kwen;Lee, Young-Shin;Cha, Ki-Up;Hong, Suck-Kyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.39-45
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    • 2010
  • Thick-walled cylinders, such as a cannon or nuclear reactor, are autofrettaged to induce advantageous residual stresses into pressure vessels and to increase operating pressure and the fatigue lifetimes. As the autofrettage level increases, the magnitude of compressive residual stress at the bore also increases. The purpose of the present paper is to predict the accurate residual stress of SCM440 high strength steel using the Kendall model which was adopted by ASME Code. Hydraulic pressure process was applied in the inner part and thick-walled cylinders were autofrettaged up to 30% overstrain levels. Electro polishing on the surface of autofrettage specimen was performed to get more accurate residual stress. Residual stresses were measured by X-ray diffraction method. The autofrettage surface which was plastically deformed analyzed using a scanning electron microscope(SEM). Although there were some differences in measured residual stress and numerical results, it has a tendency to agree comparatively with each other.

A Comparative Study of Consumer's Hype Cycles Using Web Search Traffic of Naver and Google (웹 검색트래픽을 활용한 소비자의 기대주기 비교 연구: 네이버와 구글 검색을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, You Eil;Yoo, Hyoung Sun
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1109-1133
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    • 2013
  • In an effort to discover new technologies and to forecast social changes of technologies, a number of technology life-cycle models have been developed and employed. The hype cycle, a graphical tool developed by a consulting firm, Gartner, is one of the most widely used models for the purpose and it is recognised as a practical one. However, more research is needed on theoretical frames, relations and empirical practices of the model. In this study, hype cycle comparisons in Korean and global search websites were performed by means of web-search traffic which is proposed as an empirical measurement of public expectation, analysed in a specific product or country in previous researches. First, search traffic and market share for new cars were compared in Korea and the U.S. with a view to identifying differences between the hype cycles in the two countries about the same product. The results show the similarity between the two countries with the statistical significance. Next, comparative analysis between search traffic and supply rate for several products in Korea was conducted to check out their patterns. According to the analysis, all the products seem to be at the "Peak of inflated expectations" in the hype cycles and they are similar to one another in the hype cycle. This study is of significance in aspects of expanding the scope of hype cycle analysis with web-search traffic because it introduced domestic web-search traffic analysis from Naver to analyse consumers' expectations in Korea by comparison with that from Google in other countries. In addition, this research can help to explain social phenomina more persuasively with search traffic and to give scientific objectivity to the hype cycle model. Furthermore, it can contribute to developing strategies of companies, such as marketing strategy.

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Numerical Simulation of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles (전기 자동차용 리튬이온전지 개발을 위한 수치해석)

  • You, Suk-Beom;Jung, Joo-Sik;Cheong, Kyeong-Beom;Go, Joo-Young
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.649-656
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    • 2011
  • A model for the numerical simulation of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) is developed for use in battery cell design, with a view to improving the performances of such batteries. The model uses Newman-type electrochemical and transfer $theories^{(1,2)}$ to describe the behavior of the lithium-ion cell, together with the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization scheme to estimate the performance or design parameters in nonlinear problems. The mathematical model can provide an insight into the mechanism of LIB behavior during the charging/discharging process, and can therefore help to predict cell performance. Furthermore, by means of least-squares fitting to experimental discharge curves measured at room temperature, we were able to obtain the values of transport and kinetic parameters that are usually difficult to measure. By comparing the calculated data with the life-test discharge curves (SB LiMotive cell), we found that the capacity fade is strongly dependent on the decrease in the reaction area of active materials in the anode and cathode, as well as on the electrolyte diffusivity.

A Prediction Method of the Gas Pipeline Failure Using In-line Inspection and Corrosion Defect Clustering (In-line Inspection과 부식결함 클러스터링을 이용한 가스배관의 고장예측)

  • Kim, Seong-Jun;Choe, Byung Hak;Kim, Woosik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.651-656
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    • 2014
  • Corrosion has a significant influence upon the reliability assessment and the maintenance planning of gas pipeline. Corrosion defects occurred on the underground pipeline can be obtained by conducting periodic in-line inspection (ILI). However, little study has been done for practical use of ILI data. This paper deals with remaining lifetime prediction of the gas pipeline in the presence of corrosion defects. Because a pipeline parameter includes uncertainty in its operation, a probabilistic approach is adopted in this paper. A pipeline fails when its operating pressure is larger than the pipe failure pressure. In order to estimate the failure probability, this paper uses First Order Reliability Method (FORM) which is popular in the field of structural engineering. A well-known Battelle code is chosen as the computational model for the pipe failure pressure. This paper develops a Matlab GUI for illustrating failure probability predictions Our result indicates that clustering of corrosion defects is helpful for improving a prediction accuracy and preventing an unnecessary maintenance.

Estimation of Structural Deterioration of Sewer using Markov Chain Model (마르코프 연쇄 모델을 이용한 하수관로의 구조적 노후도 추정)

  • Kang, Byong Jun;Yoo, Soon Yu;Zhang, Chuanli;Park, Kyoo Hong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.421-431
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    • 2023
  • Sewer deterioration models can offer important information on prediction of future condition of the asset to decision makers in their implementing sewer pipe networks management program. In this study, Markov chain model was used to estimate sewer deterioration trend based on the historical structural condition assessment data obtained by CCTV inspection. The data used in this study were limited to Hume pipe with diameter of 450 mm and 600 mm in three sub-catchment areas in city A, which were collected by CCTV inspection projects performed in 1998-1999 and 2010-2011. As a result, it was found that sewers in sub-catchment area EM have deteriorated faster than those in other two sub-catchments. Various main defects were to generate in 29% of 450 mm sewers and 38% of 600 mm in 35 years after the installation, while serious failure in 62% of 450 mm sewers and 74% of 600 mm in 100 years after the installation in sub-catchment area EM. In sub-catchment area SN, main defects were to generate in 26% of 450 mm sewers and 35% of 600 mm in 35 years after the installation, while in sub-catchment area HK main defects were to generate in 27% of 450 mm sewers and 37% of 600 mm in 35 years after the installation. Larger sewer pipes of 600 mm were found to deteriorate faster than smaller sewer pipes of 450 mm by about 12 years. Assuming that the percentage of main defects generation could be set as 40% to estimate the life expectancy of the sewers, it was estimated as 60 years in sub-catchment area SN, 42 years in sub-catchment area EM, 59 years in sub-catchment area HK for 450 mm sewer pipes, respectively. For 600 mm sewer pipes, on the other hand, it was estimated as 43 years, 34 years, 39 years in sub-catchment areas SN, EM, and HK, respectively.

Analysis of BWIM Signal Variation Due to Different Vehicle Travelling Conditions Using Field Measurement and Numerical Analysis (수치해석 및 현장계측을 통한 차량주행조건에 따른 BWIM 신호 변화 분석)

  • Lee, Jung-Whee
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.79-85
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    • 2011
  • Bridge Weigh-in-Motion(BWIM) system calculates a travelling vehicle's weight without interruption of traffic flow by analyzing the signals that are acquired from various sensors installed in the bridge. BWIM system or data accumulated from the BWIM system can be utilized to development of updated live load model for highway bridge design, fatigue load model for estimation of remaining life of bridges, etc. Field test with moving trucks including various load cases should be performed to guarantee successful development of precise BWIM system. In this paper, a numerical simulation technique is adopted as an alternative or supplement to the vehicle traveling test that is indispensible but expensive in time and budget. The constructed numerical model is validated by comparison experimentally measured signal with numerically generated signal. Also vehicles with various dynamic characteristics and travelling conditions are considered in numerical simulation to investigate the variation of bridge responses. Considered parameters in the numerical study are vehicle velocity, natural frequency of the vehicle, height of entry bump, and lateral position of the vehicle. By analyzing the results, it is revealed that the lateral position and natural frequency of the vehicle should be considered to increase precision of developing BWIM system. Since generation of vehicle travelling signal by the numerical simulation technique costs much less than field test, a large number of test parameters can effectively be considered to validate the developed BWIM algorithm. Also, when artificial neural network technique is applied, voluminous data set required for training and testing of the neural network can be prepared by numerical generation. Consequently, proposed numerical simulation technique may contribute to improve precision and performance of BWIM systems.

Development of Steel Composite Cable Stayed Bridge Weigh-in-Motion System using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 강합성 사장교 차량하중분석시스템 개발)

  • Park, Min-Seok;Jo, Byung-Wan;Lee, Jungwhee;Kim, Sungkon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6A
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    • pp.799-808
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    • 2008
  • The analysis of vehicular loads reflecting the domestic traffic circumstances is necessary for the development of adequate design live load models in the analysis and design of cable-supported bridges or the development of fatigue load models to predict the remaining lifespan of the bridges. This study intends to develop an ANN(artificial neural network)-based Bridge WIM system and Influence line-based Bridge WIM system for obtaining information concerning the loads conditions of vehicles crossing bridge structures by exploiting the signals measured by strain gauges installed at the bottom surface of the bridge superstructure. This study relies on experimental data corresponding to the travelling of hundreds of random vehicles rather than on theoretical data generated through numerical simulations to secure data sets for the training and test of the ANN. In addition, data acquired from 3 types of vehicles weighed statically at measurement station and then crossing the bridge repeatedly are also exploited to examine the accuracy of the trained ANN. The results obtained through the proposed ANN-based analysis method, the influence line analysis method considering the local behavior of the bridge are compared for an example cable-stayed bridge. In view of the results related to the cable-stayed bridge, the cross beam ANN analysis method appears to provide more remarkable load analysis results than the cross beam influence line method.

Estimate Customer Churn Rate with the Review-Feedback Process: Empirical Study with Text Mining, Econometrics, and Quai-Experiment Methodologies (리뷰-피드백 프로세스를 통한 고객 이탈률 추정: 텍스트 마이닝, 계량경제학, 준실험설계 방법론을 활용한 실증적 연구)

  • Choi Kim;Jaemin Kim;Gahyung Jeong;Jaehong Park
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.159-176
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    • 2021
  • Obviating user churn is a prominent strategy to capitalize on online games, eluding the initial investments required for the development of another. Extant literature has examined factors that may induce user churn, mainly from perspectives of motives to play and game as a virtual society. However, such works largely dismiss the service aspects of online games. Dissatisfaction of user needs constitutes a crucial aspect for user churn, especially with online services where users expect a continuous improvement in service quality via software updates. Hence, we examine the relationship between a game's quality management and its user base. With text mining and survival analysis, we identify complaint factors that act as key predictors of user churn. Additionally, we find that enjoyment-related factors are greater threats to user base than usability-related ones. Furthermore, subsequent quasi-experiment shows that improvements in the complaint factors (i.e., via game patches) curb churn and foster user retention. Our results shed light on the responsive role of developers in retaining the user base of online games. Moreover, we provide practical insights for game operators, i.e., to identify and prioritize more perilous complaint factors in planning successive game patches.

Measurement of the Early-Age Coefficient of Thermal Expansion and Drying Shrinkage of Concrete Pavement (콘크리트포장의 초기 열팽창계수 및 건조수축 측정 연구)

  • Yoon, Young-Mi;Suh, Young-Chan;Kim, Hyung-Bae
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.117-122
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    • 2008
  • Quality control of the concrete pavement in the early stage of curing is very important because it has a conclusive effect on its life span. Therefore, examining and analyzing the initial behavior of concrete pavement must precede an alternative to control its initial behavior. There are largely two influential factors for the initial behavior of concrete pavement. One is the drying shrinkage, and the other is the heat generated by hydration and thermal change inside the pavement depending on the change in the atmospheric temperature. Thus, the coefficient of thermal expansion and drying shrinkage can be regarded as very important influential factors for the initial behavior of the concrete. It has been a general practice up until now to measure the coefficient of thermal expansion from completely cured concrete. This practice has an inherent limitation in that it does not give us the coefficient of thermal expansion at the initial stage of curing. Additionally, it has been difficult to obtain the measurement of drying shrinkage due to the time constraint. This research examined and analyzed the early drying shrinkage of the concrete and measurements of the thermal expansion coefficients to formulate a plan to control its initial behavior. Additionally, data values for the variables of influence were collected to develop a prediction model for the initial behavior of the concrete pavement and the verification of the proposed model. In this research, thermal expansion coefficients of the concrete in the initial stage of curing ranged between $8.9{\sim}10.8{\times}10^{-6}/^{\circ}C$ Furthermore, the effects of the size and depth of the concrete on the drying shrinkage were analyzed and confirmed.

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Active-Sensing Based Damage Monitoring of Airplane Wings Under Low-Temperature and Continuous Loading Condition (능동센서 배열을 이용한 저온 반복하중 환경 항공기 날개 구조물의 손상 탐지)

  • Jeon, Jun Young;Jung, Hwee kwon;Park, Gyuhae;Ha, Jaeseok;Park, Chan-Yik
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2016
  • As aircrafts are being operated at high altitude, wing structures experience various fatigue loadings under cryogenic environments. As a result, fatigue damage such as a crack could be develop that could eventually lead to a catastrophic failure. For this reason, fatigue damage monitoring is an important process to ensure efficient maintenance and safety of structures. To implement damage detection in real-world flight environments, a special cooling chamber was built. Inside the chamber, the temperature was maintained at the cryogenic temperature, and harmonic fatigue loading was given to a wing structure. In this study, piezoelectric active-sensing based guided waves were used to detect the fatigue damage. In particular, a beamforming technique was applied to efficiently measure the scattering wave caused by the fatigue damage. The system was used for detection, growth monitoring, and localization of a fatigue crack. In addition, a sensor diagnostic process was also applied to ensure the proper operation of piezoelectric sensors. Several experiments were implemented and the results of the experiments demonstrated that this process could efficiently detect damage in such an extreme environment.