• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.5 no.1 s.9
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• pp.1-12
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• 2006

In order to estimate a dynamic origin and destination demand between on and off-ramps in the freeways, a traffic flow theory can be used to calculate a link distribution proportion of traffics moving between them. We have developed a dynamic traffic estimation model based on the three-phase traffic theory (Kerner, 2004), which explains the complexity of traffic phenomena based on phase transitions among free-flow, synchronized flow and moving jam phases, and on their complex nonlinear spatiotemporal features. The developed model explains and estimates traffic congestion in terms of speed breakdown, phase transition and queue propagation. We have estimated the link, on and off-ramp volumes at every time interval by using traffic data collected from vehicle detection systems in Korea freeway sections. The analyzed results show that the developed model describes traffic flows adequately.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.87-96
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• 2022

The traffic vulnerable, including elderly pedestrians, have a relatively low walking speed and slow cognitive response time due to reduced physical ability. Although a smart crossing system has been developed and operated to improve problem, it is difficult to operate a signal that reflects the appropriate walking speed for each pedestrian. In this study, a neural network model and a multiple regression model-based traversing speed estimation model were developed using image information collected in an area with a high percentage of traffic vulnerability. to support the provision of optimal walking signals according to real-time traffic weakness. actual traffic data collected from the urban traffic network of Paju-si, Gyeonggi-do were used. The performance of the model was evaluated through seven selected indicators, including correlation coefficient and mean absolute error. The multiple linear regression model had a correlation coefficient of 0.652 and 0.182; the neural network model had a correlation coefficient of 0.823 and 0.105. The neural network model showed higher predictive power.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.383-393
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• 2003

IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)는 향후 100년 동안 지구의 평균기온이 $1^{\circ}C$에서 $3.5^{\circ}C$ 상승할 경우, 각 기후대가 극방향으로 약 150~550km 이동할 것으로 예측하고 있으나, 과거 기후변동 연구결과들은 삼림의 이동속도를 100년간 4~200km로 추정하고 있어 식생이 기후대의 이동을 따라가지 못하여 사멸되는 지역이 발생할 것으로 예측되고 있다. 약 960km의 남북으로 긴 지형적 특성을 가진 한반도 역시 이러한 영향을 벗어나지 못할 것으로 예측되고 있어 기존의 기후변화 시나리오와 함께 삼림의 이동성을 고려한 영향연구가 요구된다. 본 연구는 IPCC의 새로운 기후변화 시나리오인 SRES 시나리오의 대기대순환모형(Global Climate Model, GCM) 결과와 AIM(Asia Integrated Model)/Impact[Korea] 모형을 이용하여 제작된 Holdridge 생물기후분류의 연구성과를 이용하여, CO2농도 배증시의 한반도지역의 자연식생 영향과 적응 가능성을 삼림의 이동성을 고려하여 평가하였다. 삼림의 이동속도를 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0(km/yr)로 변화시키며 2100년 한반도 자연식생의 기후 변화 영향을 평가한 결과, (1) 목본식물의 이동속도가 년간 1km 이상일 경우 삼림 피해가 미미하게 나타났으나 (2) 이동이 느린 0.25km/yr의 경우, 생육위험지역을 포함한 시나리오별 전체 피해규모는 A2(17.47%), A1(9.97%), B1(6.21%), B2(5.08%) 순으로 나타났으며, 삼림소멸의 경우는 A2, B2 시나리오에서 발생하며 A2 시나리오에서 한반도의 약 2.1%로 가장 크게 발생하였다. (3) 전반적인 생육위험 지역의 분포는 함흥만, 영흥만의 동해안지역에 집중되었으며, A2 시나리오의 극단적 소멸예상지역은 금오산, 가야산, 팔공산을 연결하는 지역에서 발생하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.523-526
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• 2004

가입자단에서의 병목현상 해결과 통신방송융합서비스의 제공을 위해 가입자망 기술은 디지털화된 HFC와 상하향 100Mbps이상의 속도를 제공하는 FTTH(Fiber To The Home)로 진화될 것으로 예측되며, 궁극적으로는 FTTH로 수렴될 것으로 전망되고 있다. FTTH는 통신과 방송이 융합된 다양한 신규서비스로 새로운 수익을 창출할 것으로 기대되나, 대규모 투자가 필요한 상황에서 정확한 수요 예측은 통신 회사들의 네트워크 구축 관련 의사결정에 필수적인 요인이다. 이를 위해 본 논문에서는 경쟁서비스로 천이가 용이한 통신서비스의 특징을 고려하여 FTTH의 수요예측을 실시하였다. 1차 전문가 설문을 통해 서비스간 전이형태를 모형화하였으며, 이를 토대로 FTTH 서비스로의 천이에 의해 추가적인 확산이 일어나는 변형된 Bass모형을 제안하였다. FTTH 서비스의 확산요인을 분석한 후 이를 토대로 2차 전문가 설문을 통해 각 계수를 추정하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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• 1999.05a
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• pp.244-258
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• 1999

정보화 촉진 정책 개발 도구로써 정보화 지표의 문제점 및 한계를 지적하고, 이를 보완할 수 있는 방안으로서 시스템 사고에 입각한 동적 역학 모델을 개발하는데 본 연구의 목적이 있다. 정보화 진행모형은 정보화 진행속도는 촉진요인과 저해요인의 상호 영향도에 의해 결정된다는 점에서부터 출발하여 이들 양자간 존재하는 Push-Pull 패러다임 하에 상호 역학관계를 시스템 다이내믹스 모형(System Dynamics model)을 개발하였다. 나아가 개발된 모델을 컴퓨터 시뮬레이션으로 구현, 시행함으로서 향후 정보화 촉진을 위한 정책변수의 도출과 각 변수의 영향도를 측정할 수 있는 가능성을 제시하였다. 컴퓨터 시뮬레이션 모델에 반영된 기초 자료는 가능한 한 실제 데이터를 분석, 이용하였으나, 시계열 자료의 부족으로 상당부분 추정 및 가정을 도입하였다. 결국 시뮬레이션 시행으로 얻은 결과치 그 자체는 현실성을 결여하고 있는 문제를 안고 있으나, 정보화 촉진 정책 입안과 그에 대한 효과를 사전에 분석해 볼 수 있는 새로운 돌파구를 마련하였다는 점에서 본 연구의 의미를 찾을 수 있을 것으로 기대된다

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.172-174
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• 2018

기존선형과 저항을 최소화하는 최적선형에 대한 에너지효율 성능을 평가하는 것이다. 설계 흘수와 설계 선속을 고려하여 대상선박의 선수부 형상을 검토하였다. 실제 운항 상태에서 대상선박의 저항성능을 평가하였다. 상용 전산유체역학(CFD) 코드와 수조 모형시험 자료는 유효마력 평가를 위해 사용되었다. 실제 운항 상태를 고려하여 최소저항을 가지는 최적선형을 제시하였다. 기존선형과 최적선형에 대하여 3가지 선속에서 유효마력을 추정하였다. 최적선형의 저항성능은 기존선형과 비교하여 볼 때 설계속도(12노트)에서 약 6% 향상된 결과를 보여 주었다. 준추진효율 계수(ETAD, ${\eta}D$)는 모형시험 자료를 활용하였다. 에너지 효율 성능은 년간 운항일수, 벙커C유 가격, 1일 연료사용량 그리고 연료소비계수를 바탕으로 작성되었다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.7 s.85
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• pp.125-136
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• 2005

The goal of this paper is to develop freeway Origin-Destination (OD) demand estimation model using VDS and AVI data. The formulation of methodology proposed in this paper includes traffic flow technique to be able to remove the bi-level problem and optimal solution algorithm using a kalman filter algorithm. The proposed dynamic OD estimation model use ilk and off-ramp volumes collected from VDS and partial OD collected from AVI data to raise the accuracy of dynamic OD estimation. The proposed model is evaluated by using the real-time data of SOHAEAN freeway, South Korea. The result of the proposed dynamic OD estimation model based on VDS and AVI data is better than that of based on VDS data. The more AVI systems are equipped at on and off-ramp, the more excellent result of estimation accuracy is expected.

• 한국사회정책
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.95-123
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• 2016

As Korean society grows rapidly older, a systematic analysis of the determinants of labor supply behavior among the elderly becomes a prerequisite for designing more effective senior employment policies and income security regime for the elderly. Literatures review shows that a majority of previous researches have been ignoring the problem of "endogenous predictor" especially when it comes to the estimation of the effects of the two key variables, education and non-labor income, on labor supply decisions among older people. They have failed to take into consideration the unobserved heterogeneities which might affect both labor supply decisions of the elderly and their levels of education and non-labor income, which means, according to some econometric literatures, that the estimated coefficients of the two predictors can be inconsistent. The paper tries to redress the endogeneity problem by employing a panel logit model with data from the 1st. to 4th. wave of the KLoSA(Korean Longitudinal Survey of Ageing) to estimate the effects of key predictors on the probability of getting jobs among older people(ages of 60 or older). Both a random effects and a fixed effects model reaffirms that non-labor income has a negative effect on the chances of being employed. And a random effects model shows that the effect of education is also negative, as has frequently been reported by previous studies. That means the effects of education and non-labor income on elderly employment remain negative after the effect of unobserved heterogeneities is controled for and the problem of endogenous predictors is redressed through an appropriate panel data analysis. These findings mean, in turn, that when Korean baby-boomers, who had acquired an unprecedentedly higher level of education and were expected to enjoy ever-larger amount of non-labor income than their preceding generations, retires in near future, their incentives to work will become much weaker and the lack of labor-force and the burden of financing increased public pension expenditure will become more troublesome. The paper concludes with recommending some policy initiatives helpful to solve these expected problems.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.35-46
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• 2016

This study investigates the export behavior of Busan, Gwangyang and Incheon Port. The monthly data cover the period from January 2000 to December 2015. We employ six export functions composed of various exchange rates and industrial production index. This paper finds that the nominal effective exchange rate is more appropriate for explaining the export behaviors of the three ports, regardless of the narrow and wide indices which comprise 26 and 61 economies for the nominal and real indices respectively. This paper tests whether exchange rate and industrial production are stationary or not, rejecting the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables and of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration at the 5 percent significance level. The error-correction model is estimated to find that both Gwangyang and Incheon ports are much slower than Busan port in adjusting the short-run disequilibrium and Gwangyang port is a little slower than Incheon port. The rolling regressions show that the influence of exchange rate as well as industrial production tends to decrease in all of three ports. The variance decomposition, however, shows that the export variables are very exogenous and the export of Busan Port is the least exogenous and that of Gwangyang Port the most. This result indicates that the economic variables such as exchange rate and economic activity affect the export of Busan Port more strongly than that of Gwangyang and Incheon Port.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.449-460
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• 2015

The reliability of air quality evaluation results for green transportation could be improved by applying correct emission factors. Unlike previous studies, which estimated emission factors that focused on vehicles in laboratory experiments, this study investigates emission factors according to road types and time using real driving data. The real driving data was collected using a Portable Activity Monitoring System (PAMS) according to road types and time, which it compared and analyzed fuel consumption from collected data. The result of the study shows that fuel consumption on national highway is 17.33% higher than the fuel consumption on expressway. In addition, the average fuel consumption of peak time is 4.7% higher than that of non-peak time for 22.5km/h. The difference in fuel consumption for road types and time is verified using ANOCOVA and MANOVA. As a result, the hypothesis of this study - that fuel consumption differs according to road types and time, even if the travel speed is the same - has proved valid. It also suggests correction factor of emission factors by using the difference in fuel consumption. It is highly expected that this study can improve the reliability of emissions from mobile pollution sources.