• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1998.10a
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• pp.21-30
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• 1998

본 연구는 기존 구간 속도 예측기법의 고찰을 통하여 검지기에서 올라오는 교통제어변수를 이용하여 구간 속도 예측모형을 연구하는데 목적이 있다. 이를 위한 교통 제어변수로는 연속류 제어에서 통상적으로 사용되는 교통량, 점유율, 밀도, 속도 등을 사용한다. 공간적 범위로는 서울 올림픽대로의 17개의 영상 검지기 중 #3과 #16검지기에서 올라오는 속도, 점유율, 교통량 자료를 토대로 1998년 6월 11일 오전 7시부터 11시까지의 4시간동안 예측을 실시하며 Historical Traffic Pattern과 시험차량, 자동차 번호판 조사를 통한 구간 실측조사 자료를 토대로 예측을 위한 자료를 구축한다. 기존의 예측기법인 시계열 분석, 신경망 이론, 평활법과 칼만필터링을 고찰하였고, 가장 좋은 예측력을 보여주는 기법은 칼만필터링 모형이었다. 이를 토대로 Case Study를 통해 여러 구간의 다주기 예측을 통해 단기간(short-term)의 구간 속도를 예측하고 각 해당 검지기별 실측자료를 통해 비교분석을 실시하였다. 결과적으로 도출된 칼만필터링 모형의 다주기 예측을 통한 구간 통행속도의 예측이 기존의 구간 통행속도 산출 방법보다 더 나은 예측력을 보여주고 있다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2020.11a
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• pp.883-885
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• 2020

최근 활발히 진행되는 교통 속도 예측 연구는 기존에는 하나의 모델로 하나의 도로구간에 대해서만 예측하는 문제를 주로 다루었다. 그러나 하나의 도로구간을 하나의 속도 예측 모델로 예측할 시, 도로구간마다 모델이 존재하여야 하므로 모델의 예측 비용이 도로구간의 수만큼 증가한다. 본 논문에서는 하나의 모델을 통해 다수의 도로구간에 대한 속도를 예측하는 다중 도로구간 속도 예측 모델을 제안한다. 제안하는 다중 도로구간 속도 예측 모델은 기존의 단일 도로구간 속도 예측 모델 대비 정확도를 보존하면서, 그 예측 비용을 크게 감소시켰다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.25-37
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• 2020

As social costs of traffic congestion increase, various studies are underway to predict road speed. In order to improve the accuracy of road speed prediction, unexpected traffic situations need to be considered. In this paper, we propose a road speed prediction scheme considering traffic incidents affecting road speed. We use not only the speed data of the target road but also the speed data of the connected roads to reflect the impact of the connected roads. We also analyze the amount of speed change to predict the traffic congestion caused by traffic incidents. We use the speed data of connected roads and target road with input data to predict road speed in the first place. To reduce the prediction error caused by breaking the regular road flow due to traffic incidents, we predict the final road speed by applying event weights. It is shown through various performance evaluations that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods.

• Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.503-511
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• 2004

In this study, for estimating responses of a controlled structure and determining the maximum control force of velocity-dependent damping devices, three estimation models such as Fourier envelope convex model, probability model, and Newmark design spectrum are used. For this purpose, a procedure is proposed for estimating actual velocity using pseudo-velocity and this procedure considers the effects of damping ratio increased by the damping device. Time history results indicate that actual velocity should be used for estimating accurate maximum control force of damping device and Newmark design spectrum modified by the proposed equation gives the best estimation results for over all period structures.

• Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.1-10
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• 2023

This study investigated the relative effectiveness of letter-based versus syllable-based measures of speech rate and articulation rate in predicting the articulation score, prosody fluency, and rating sum using "English speech data of Koreans for education" from AI Hub. We extracted and analyzed 900 utterances from the training data, including three balanced age groups (13, 19, and 26 years old). The study built three models that best predicted the pronunciation assessment scores using linear mixed-effects regression and compared the predicted scores with the actual scores from the validation data (n=180). The correlation coefficients between them were also calculated. The findings revealed that syllable-based measures of speech and articulation rates were more effective than letter-based measures in all three pronunciation assessment categories. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and actual scores ranged from .65 to .68, indicating the models' good predictive power. However, it remains inconclusive whether speech rate or articulation rate is more effective.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.86-99
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• 2021

One of the methods to alleviate traffic congestion is to increase the efficiency of the roads by providing traffic condition information on road user and distributing the traffic. For this, reliability must be guaranteed, and quantitative real-time traffic speed prediction is essential. In this study, and based on analysis of traffic speed related to traffic conditions, historical data correlated with traffic flow were used as input. We developed an LSTM model that predicts speed in response to normal traffic conditions, along with a CNN-LSTM model that predicts speed in response to incidents. Through these models, we try to predict traffic speeds during the hour in five-minute intervals. As a result, predictions had an average error rate of 7.43km/h for normal traffic flows, and an error rate of 7.66km/h for traffic incident flows when there was an incident.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 1999.11a
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• pp.574-581
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• 1999

비선형 임계속도를 주행시험대를 이용하여 측정하였으며 비선형 임계속도가 관성에 의한 과도 현상이 아님을 확인하기 위하여 주행속도를 연속 그리고 불연속적으로 감가속 하면서 선형 및 비선형 임계속도를 측정하였다. 또한 차량의 안정성을 간편하게 예측할 때 대차모델만을 사용하던 종래의 방법이 타당한지 확인하였으며 차량의 임계속도와 응답주파수를 예측하기 위하여 산업체에서 사용되던 간편 식들의 정확성을 검토한 결과 다음의 결과를 도출할 수 있었다. (중략)

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.11 no.6
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• pp.40-48
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• 2012

In this paper, we suggests methods for determining optimal representative value and the optimal size of historical data for reliable travel speed prediction. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method in real world environments, we did field tests at four roadway links in Seoul on Tuesday and Sunday. According to the results of applying the methods to historical data of Central Traffic Information Center, the optimal representative value were analyzed to be average and weighted average. Second, it was analyzed that 2 months data is the optimal size of historical data used for travel speed prediction.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.1-16
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• 2020

With the advent of the fourth industrial revolution era, there has been a growing interest in deep learning using big data, and studies using deep learning have been actively conducted in various fields. In the transportation sector, there are many advantages to using deep learning in research as much as using deep traffic big data. In this study, a short -term travel speed prediction model using LSTM, a deep learning technique, was constructed to predict the travel speed. The LSTM model suitable for time series prediction was selected considering that the travel speed data, which is used for prediction, is time series data. In order to predict the travel speed more precisely, we constructed a model that reflects both temporal and spatial effects. The model is a short-term prediction model that predicts after one hour. For the analysis data, the 5minute travel speed collected from the Seoul Transportation Information Center was used, and the analysis section was selected as a part of Gangnam where traffic was congested.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.141-153
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• 2010

The study is about the development of operating speed prediction models aimed for an evaluation of design consistency of four lane rural roads. The main differences of this study relative to previous research are the method of data collection and classification of road alignments. The previous studies collected speed data at several points in the horizontal curve and approaching tangent. This method of collection is based on the assumption that acceleration and deceleration only occurs at horizontal tangents and the speed is kept constant at horizontal curves. However, this assumption leads to an unreliable speed estimation, so drivers' behavior is not well represented. Contrary to the previous approach, speed data were collected with one and data analysis using a speed profile is made for data selection before building final models. A total of six speed prediction models were made according to the combination of horizontal and vertical alignments. The study predicts that the speed data analysis and selection for model building employed in this study can improve the prediction accuracy of models and be useful to analyze drivers' speed behavior in a more detailed way. Furthermore, it is expected that the operating speed prediction models can help complement the current design-speed-based guidelines, so more benefits to drivers as real road users, rather than engineers or decision makers, can be achieved.