• Title/Summary/Keyword: 소비자심리지수

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Empirical Analysis on Bitcoin Price Change by Consumer, Industry and Macro-Economy Variables (비트코인 가격 변화에 관한 실증분석: 소비자, 산업, 그리고 거시변수를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Junsik;Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.195-220
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we conducted an empirical analysis of the factors that affect the change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Previous studies have focused on the security of the block chain system, the economic ripple effects caused by the cryptocurrency, legal implications and the acceptance to consumer about cryptocurrency. In various area, cryptocurrency was studied and many researcher and people including government, regardless of country, try to utilize cryptocurrency and applicate to its technology. Despite of rapid and dramatic change of cryptocurrencies' price and growth of its effects, empirical study of the factors affecting the price change of cryptocurrency was lack. There were only a few limited studies, business reports and short working paper. Therefore, it is necessary to determine what factors effect on the change of closing Bitcoin price. For analysis, hypotheses were constructed from three dimensions of consumer, industry, and macroeconomics for analysis, and time series data were collected for variables of each dimension. Consumer variables consist of search traffic of Bitcoin, search traffic of bitcoin ban, search traffic of ransomware and search traffic of war. Industry variables were composed GPU vendors' stock price and memory vendors' stock price. Macro-economy variables were contemplated such as U.S. dollar index futures, FOMC policy interest rates, WTI crude oil price. Using above variables, we did times series regression analysis to find relationship between those variables and change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Before the regression analysis to confirm the relationship between change of Bitcoin Closing Price and the other variables, we performed the Unit-root test to verifying the stationary of time series data to avoid spurious regression. Then, using a stationary data, we did the regression analysis. As a result of the analysis, we found that the change of Bitcoin Closing Price has negative effects with search traffic of 'Bitcoin Ban' and US dollar index futures, while change of GPU vendors' stock price and change of WTI crude oil price showed positive effects. In case of 'Bitcoin Ban', it is directly determining the maintenance or abolition of Bitcoin trade, that's why consumer reacted sensitively and effected on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. GPU is raw material of Bitcoin mining. Generally, increasing of companies' stock price means the growth of the sales of those companies' products and services. GPU's demands increases are indirectly reflected to the GPU vendors' stock price. Making an interpretation, a rise in prices of GPU has put a crimp on the mining of Bitcoin. Consequently, GPU vendors' stock price effects on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. And we confirmed U.S. dollar index futures moved in the opposite direction with change of Bitcoin Closing Price. It moved like Gold. Gold was considered as a safe asset to consumers and it means consumer think that Bitcoin is a safe asset. On the other hand, WTI oil price went Bitcoin Closing Price's way. It implies that Bitcoin are regarded to investment asset like raw materials market's product. The variables that were not significant in the analysis were search traffic of bitcoin, search traffic of ransomware, search traffic of war, memory vendor's stock price, FOMC policy interest rates. In search traffic of bitcoin, we judged that interest in Bitcoin did not lead to purchase of Bitcoin. It means search traffic of Bitcoin didn't reflect all of Bitcoin's demand. So, it implies there are some factors that regulate and mediate the Bitcoin purchase. In search traffic of ransomware, it is hard to say concern of ransomware determined the whole Bitcoin demand. Because only a few people damaged by ransomware and the percentage of hackers requiring Bitcoins was low. Also, its information security problem is events not continuous issues. Search traffic of war was not significant. Like stock market, generally it has negative in relation to war, but exceptional case like Gulf war, it moves stakeholders' profits and environment. We think that this is the same case. In memory vendor stock price, this is because memory vendors' flagship products were not VRAM which is essential for Bitcoin supply. In FOMC policy interest rates, when the interest rate is low, the surplus capital is invested in securities such as stocks. But Bitcoin' price fluctuation was large so it is not recognized as an attractive commodity to the consumers. In addition, unlike the stock market, Bitcoin doesn't have any safety policy such as Circuit breakers and Sidecar. Through this study, we verified what factors effect on change of Bitcoin Closing Price, and interpreted why such change happened. In addition, establishing the characteristics of Bitcoin as a safe asset and investment asset, we provide a guide how consumer, financial institution and government organization approach to the cryptocurrency. Moreover, corroborating the factors affecting change of Bitcoin Closing Price, researcher will get some clue and qualification which factors have to be considered in hereafter cryptocurrency study.

A Study on Chinese Traditional Auspicious Fish Pattern Application in Corperate Identity Design (중국 전통 길상 어(魚)문양을 응용한 중국 기업의 아이덴티티 디자인 동향)

  • ZHANG, JINGQIU
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.50
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    • pp.349-382
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    • 2018
  • China is a great civilization which is a combination of various ethnic groups with long history change. As one of these important components of traditional culture, the lucky shape has been going through the ideological upheaval of the history change of China. Up to now, it has become the important parts which can stimulate the emotion of Chinese nation. The lucky shape becomes the basis of the rich traditional culture by long history of the Chinese nation. Even say it is the centre of this traditional culture resource. The lucky shape is a way of expressing the Chinese history and national emotions. It is the important part of people's living habits, emotion, as well as the cultural background. What's more, it has the value of beliefs of Surname totem. Meanwhile, it also has the function of passing on information. The symbol of information finally was created by the being of lucky shape to indicate its conceptual content. There are various kinds of lucky shapes. It will have its limitations when researching all kinds of them professionally. So, here the lucky shape of FISH will be researched. The shape of fish is the first good shape created by the Chinese nation. It is about 6000 years. Its special shape and lucky meaning embody the peculiar inherent culture and intension of the Chinese nation. It's the important component of the Chinese traditional culture. The traditional shape of fish was focused on the continuation of history and the patterns recognition, etc. It seldom indicated the meaning of the shape into the using of the modern design. So by searching the lucky meaning & the way of fish shape, the purpose of the search is to explore the real analysis of value of the fish shape in the modern enterprise identity design. The way of search is through the development of the history, the evolvement and the meaning of lucky of the traditional fish shape to analyse the symbolic meaning and the cultural meaning from all levels in nation, culture, art and life, etc. And by using the huge living example of the enterprise identity design of the traditional shape of the fish to analyse that how it works in positive way by those enterprise which is based on the trust with good image. In the modern Chinese enterprise identity design, the lucky image will be reinterpreted in the modern way. It will be proofed by the national perceptual knowledge of the consumer and the way of enlarge the goodwill of corporate image. It will be the conclusion. The traditional fish shape is the important core of modern design.So this search is taken through the instance of the design of enterprise image of the traditional fish shape to analysis the idea of the majority Chinese people of the traditional luck and the influence of corporation which based on trust and credibility. In modern image design of Chinese corporation, the auspicious sign reappear. The question survey is taken by people through the perceptual knowledge of the consumer and the cognition the enterprise image. According the result, people can speculate the improvement of consumer's recognition and the possibility of development of traditional concept.