• Title/Summary/Keyword: 소득 성장

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한국주식수익률의 시계열상관에 대한 원인분석

  • Kim, Dong-Hoe;Gwak, Cheol-Hyo;Jeong, Jeong-Hyeon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.23-56
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    • 1997
  • 본 연구는 주식의 시장가치와 거래빈도, 기관지분비율, 거래량 등에 따라 주식수익률의 시계열상관이 일정한 패턴을 갖는 것으로 나타나고 있다는 사실을 실증적으로 확인하고, 주식수익률의 시계열상관에 주된 영향을 미치는 요인을 횡단면 분석방법을 이용하여 살펴보고 있다. 1985년부터 1995년까지의 기간에 걸친 일별수익률자료를 이용하여 분석한 결과를 요약하면, 1) 규모, 거래빈도, 기관지분비율, 거래량 등이 작은 주식들로 구성된 포트폴리오일수록 수익률이 강한 양의 자기상관을 갖게 되며, 또한 그러한 변수들의 크기가 큰 주식들로 구성된 포트폴리오의 수익률에 대하여 후행하는 관계에 있다는 보여주고 있다. 2) Lo and MacKinlay(1990a)의 비거래모형을 이용한 분석결과에서는 한국주식수익률의 시계 및 상관이 전적으로 비거래로 인하여 나타나는 현상이 아니라는 것을 보여주고 있다. 3) 시계열상관의 정도를 나타내는 후행척도를 상기한 변수들에 대하여 회귀분석한 결과는 모든 변수들이 주식수익률의 시계열상관에 동시적으로 영향을 주고 있다는 것을 보여준다. 특히 시계열상관을 야기하는 요인들 중에서 거래빈도는 분석기간에 관계없이 항상 시계열상관에 음의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 기관지분비율과 거래량은 분명히 시계열상관에 음의 영향을 미치지만, 분석기간에 따라 유의성에 다소 차이를 보여주고 있다. 수익률의 변동성은 전반기의 경우에 시계열상관과 음의 관계를, 후반기의 경우에는 양의 관계를 갖는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 이러한 검증결과들로 미루어, 한국주식수익률의 시계열상관은 주가의 반응에 영향을 주게되는 시장구조나 투자패턴 등이 전 후반기에 있어서 서로 다르기 때문에 나타나는 현상으로 보인다.력(事前賣却努力)이 협의발행하에서 더 높았으나 발행일 직후의 주가회복은 보이지 않아 인수방식에 따른 가격안정화(價格安定化) 노력의 차이는 없었다. 발행기업들간의 주가차별화의 정도를 분석한 결과 협의발행에서 인회활동(認淮活動) (certification effects)을 더 잘 할 수 있다는 사실을 지지하지 못했다.범위(範圍)에 벗어나 한국주식시장(韓國株式市場)에서 주식시장(株式市場)의 비효율성(非效率性)을 배제할 수 없는 것으로 나타났다. 뿐만 아니라 차기에도 이어지고 화폐량과 소득이 주가의 결정에 영향을 미치고 있으며 다른 금융변수(金融變數)들은 영향을 미치지 않고 있다. 그러나 실질화폐잔고와 실질주가 장단기수익비율 화폐차등수익률과 소득변화률과는 장기적(長期的) 정상적(定常的) 균형관계(均衡關係)를 형성하고 있다. 따라서 장기적 관점에서 증권시장은 경제성장을 위한 통화정책과 각 분야의 균형적 성장을 유발할 수 있는 재정정책(財政政策)이 요청되고 있다. 위의 논의에서 유추할 수 있는 것은 화폐의 영향을 완화시키기 위하여 option시장의 개발과 농산물, 광물, 기타 실물 및 금융에 대한 선물시장의 개설이 요청된다. 이와 같은 시장을 통하여 통화 정책이 증권시장에 미치는 과도한 효과를 축소시켜 합리적이고 건전한 증권시장(證券市場)의 발전(發展)과 금융시장(金融市場)의 원활한 발전이 이룩될 수 있을 것이다. 자본시장이론(資本市場理論)에서는 화폐는 무시하고 실물적인 관점에서 증권가격의 결정을 연구하거나 위험분석에 주안점이 주어져 왔었다. 본 연구를 통하여 통화정책의 결과가 자본시장에 직접적으로 영향을 미치고 있음을 확인하였다. 통화금융정책과 주가의 유기적 관계를 확인한 본 논문의 결과를 정책당국이 참고하여

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Economic effect of machine-transplanted rice in no-till Chinese milkvetch cropping systems (무경운 자운영 피복 벼 기계이앙의 경제적 효과)

  • Lee, Young-Han;Shon, Daniel;Heo, Jae-Young;Lee, Seong-Tae;Hong, Kwang-Pyo;Song, Won-Doo;Rho, Chi-Woong;Choe, Zhin-Ryong;Yun, Han-Dae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Organic Agriculture Conference
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    • 2009.12a
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    • pp.282-282
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    • 2009
  • 환경오염에 대한 우려 및 안전농산물에 대한 소비자욕구 증대로 유기농산물 시장규모가 최근 3년간 2.8배 성장 추세이다. 친환경농산물 인증면적은 '00년 2,039 ha에서 '07년 122,882 ha로 급격히 증가하고 있으나 생태적 원리에 부합된 벼 재배기술이 부족하며 특히 무경운 논토양에 대한 경영분석 자료는 거의 없는 실정이다. 본 연구는 유기농업기술을 종합적으로 투입한 시범마을을 육성하기 위하여 하동군 양보면 예성마을 1ha를 대상으로 관행농업과 무경운 자운영 피복 벼 기계이앙을 실증하여 경제적인 효과를 검토하였다. 토양 관리를 위해 2007년 9월 10일에 자운영을 3 kg/10a 파종하여 겨울철 토양 생태계를 유지하였고 화학비료나 농약을 사용하지 않았다. 볍씨 소독은 마른 종자를 60 $^{\circ}C$에서 8분간 침지하는 열탕침법을 이용하였으며 논 물담기는 5월 28일경 15 cm 이상 깊게 하여 자운영이 잘 분해되도록 하였다. 기계이앙은 6월 10일경 표면 1 cm 이내의 물 깊이에서 식부장치를 최대한 깊게하고 주수는 주당 5-7주 정도로 실시하였으며 기계이앙 후에는 5일 정도 물을 담지 않고 그대로 두고 그 후 물을 10 cm 이상 깊게 하여 잡초발생을 억제하였다. 중간낙수는 7월 10일경 1회 처리하였고 수확기 낙수는 9월 23일 실시하였다. 무경운 처리구의 이앙전 토양 가밀도는 관행 1.30 g $cm^{-3}$ 비해 0.09 g $cm^{-3}$ 정도 가벼운 것으로 나타났고 공극률은 관행 50.8%에 비해 3.5% 높은 것으로 나타났으며 특히 수분률이 3.5% 높았다. 무경운 자운영 피복 기계이앙 처리구의 잡초발생 건물량은 7월 4일경 피 8.8 g $m^{-2}$, 여뀌 10.8 g $m^{-2}$ 이었으며 9월 18일에는 피 16.0 g $m^{-2}$, 여뀌 12.3 g $m^{-2}$였다. 수확기 관행처리구의 주당 이삭수는 16.7개, 수당립수는 101개, 천립중은 25.4 g, 등숙비율은 82.3%로 수량은 517 kg $10a^{-1}$ 였으며 무경운 자운영 피복 기계이앙은 주당 이삭수가 14.1개, 수당 립수는 103개, 천립중은 26.2 g, 등숙비율은 91.2%로 수량이 456 kg $10a^{-1}$였다. 무경운 자운영피복 벼 기계이앙은 기경작업이나 시비작업 등이 없으므로 노동력이 60% 절감되었으며 농가소득은 5% 증대되었다. 따라서 농업분야 저탄소 녹색성장과 관련하여 자연 생태계를 보전하면서 농가소득을 유지할 수 있는 방법으로 무경운 자운영 피복 벼 기계이앙이 효과적인 것으로 판단되었다.

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Economic Impact Analysis of Hydrogen Energy Deployment Applying Dynamic CGE Model (동태 CGE 모형을 활용한 수소에너지 보급의 경제적 영향 추정)

  • Bae, Jeong-Hwan;Cho, Gyeong-Lyeob
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.275-311
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    • 2007
  • Hydrogen energy is emphasized as a substitutable energy of carbon-based energy system in the future, since it is non-depletable and clean energy. Long term vision of Korean government on the national energy system is to promote hydrogen energy by 15% of final energy demand until 2040. This study analyzes economic impacts of hydrogen energy development employing a dynamic CGE model for Korea. Frontier technology such as hydrogen energy is featured as slow diffusion at the initial stage due to the learning effect and energy complementarity. Without government intervention, hydrogen energy would be produced upto 6.5% of final energy demand until 2040. However, if government subsidizes sales price of hydrogen energy by 10%, 20%, and 30%, share of hydrogen energy would increase 9.2%, 15.2%, and 37.7% of final energy demand. This result shows that the slow diffusion problem of hydrogen energy as frontier technology could be figured out by market incentive policy. On the other hand, production levels of transportation sector would increase while growth rate of oil and electricity sectors would decline. Household consumption would be affected negatively since increase of consumption due to the price decrease would be overwhelmed by income reduction owing to the increase of tax. Overall, GDP would not decrease or increase significantly since total production, investment, and export would increase even if household consumption declines.

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A Longitudinal Analysis of Residential Environment Quality and Housing Expense of Young Households (청년층 가구의 주거실태 변화에 관한 종단 분석)

  • Lee, Hyunjeong;Yim, Taegyun
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.31-47
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    • 2022
  • This paper examines residential environment quality and housing expenses of young households through longitudinal analysis. Using the 5th and 15th Korea Welfare Panel Study (KoWePS), this research compared their housing outcomes with those of the Korean households. The statistical analysis revealed that most young households were highly-educated, salaried workers who were predominantly married men in their early 30s. There was a sharp rise in the number of female householders and one-person households. Also, the young households were largely renters of mid-sized multi-family housing with two bedrooms in non-Seoul Metropolitan Area. Their housing expense was slightly higher than the national average. As a proportion of renters of multi-family housing (exclusive of apartments) rose, the proportion of young households who spent more than 25% of their income increased faster than the national average. The proportion of young households in the Seoul Metropolitan Area outpaced the national average. Their monthly rental arrangements grew in contrast to no change in the nationwide monthly rental arrangement over the survey period, resulting in their high burden on housing expenses. Their homeownership rate was below the national average, and it decreased while the overall homeownership rate increased nationwide, implying that their housing affordability was worsened, which made it difficult for them to move up the housing ladder. Thus, this research suggests housing policies that scale up support for young households.

Empirical Analysis on Determinants of Air Pollution in China (중국의 대기오염 배출 결정요인에 대한 경험적 분석)

  • Li, Dmitriy D.;Wang, Wen;Bae, Jeong Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.23-45
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    • 2020
  • The rapid economic growth has brought tremendous pressure on the environment and caused severe air pollution in China. This study empirically examines causes of air pollution in China. Panel-corrected standard errors procedure (PCSE) was used to analyze major determinants of increasing or reducing emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) in 30 Chinese provinces. The estimation results show that SO2 emission is mitigated as per capita regional GDP increases, but the relation between emission of NOX and per capita regional GDP is found to have an inverse N-shaped curve, which implies that emission of NOX is ultimately expected to decline with economic growth. As for increasing factors of air pollutants, electricity consumption is a significant common source of SO2 and NOX emissions. Moreover, the results show that increment of coal consumption significantly affects emission of SO2 while increase of natural gas consumption reduce emission of SO2. On the other side, investment in energy industry, and investment on treatment of waste gases are determinants of mitigating emissions of SO2, but have no impact on NOX. Consumption of diesel, truck ratio and number of vehicles increase emission of NOX. Meanwhile, higher precipitation rate is a common determinant of mitigating emissions of SO2 and NOX. Policy implications are suggested in the conclusion.

Determinants of the Unemployment's Distributional Effect on the Income Inequality; A Comparative Study of the Industrialized Countries (실업의 소득불평등 효과의 국가간 차이에의 영향요인 분석 : 1980년대 서구 복지국가들을 대상으로)

  • Lee, Sang-Rok
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.36
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    • pp.229-257
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    • 1998
  • In order to evaluate the effects of high unemployment rates on the income distribution and to find out mediative factors to these effect, the relationship between unemployment and income inequality in the industrialized countries and determinants of their relationship are analysized in this paper. Major findings from the analysis are these. First, changing pattern of unemployment rates are not similiar that of income inequality in the industrialized countries. This result suggests that relationships between unemployment and income inequality are dissimiliar within the industrialized countries. Second, results from analysis about relevant factors' effect on the relationship between unemployment and income inequality, the effects of economic factors such as economic growth rates and the scale of economy are not significant. But variables such as union density rates and scale of social welfare expenditure are found to have significant effects on the relationship between unemployment and income inequality. In fact, when the policy factors enters, the negative distributional effects of unemployment are lower by 50%. These results impliy that dissmilarities between the industrialized countries in the 1980s' changing patterns of income inequality are engendered from the union density rates and scale of social welfare expenditure. These findings in this paper suggest such a implication to the Korea; In order to achieve the more deserable society, policy orientations which give the priority to the economy restructuring rather than development of social welfare have to be reexamined and modified.

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The Analysis of Economic Contribution of Character Industry in China (산업연관분석에 의한 중국 캐릭터 산업의 경제적 효과 분석)

  • Zhang, Xin-Dan;Yao, Jin-Ge;Lee, Hyuck-Jin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.125-135
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    • 2021
  • Due to the lack of national consensus on the importance and value of the character industry and the lack of recognition of value as a national strategic industry, the development of the character industry is experiencing great difficulties. The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic effects of character industry in China to help establish policies and strategies for the character industry in the future. To this end, this study utilized the China 2017 Industrial Association Table. The analysis results are as follows. China's character industry has a lower production inducement effect than other industries with a column total of 3.45514, and a row total of 1.30015. This shows that China's character industry is still being produced by small and medium-sized companies with a low equity ratio. Second, in the character industry, the index of the sensitivity of dispersion representing the forward linkage effect is 0.01426 and the impact factor is 0.03790, which are all less than 1. Therefore, it can be said to be the final demand manufacturing type.Third, in China character industry's income induction is 0.47690 and the production tax induction effect is -0.04912. It can be seen that the character industry has less income induction and tax burden generated every time the final demand increases by one unit in the entire industry than in other industries.Despite the quantitative growth of the character industry in China, the impact on other industries is low and it is not playing a role as an income-generating industry. Structural improvement is needed for the qualitative development of China's character industry.

Seeking for the Determinants of Entrepreneurship from National Level Data (국가 특성이 창업활동에 미치는 영향 실증 분석)

  • Kim, Hyung Jun;Min, Tae Ki;Wang, Jingbu;Schuler, Diana;Oh, Keun Yeob
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the factors that affect start-up activities at the national level. Unlike most existing research about entrepreneurship at the individual level, this empirical analysis makes use of the total early-stage entrepreneurial activity(TEA) index at national level. This was developed by the Global Entrepreneur Monitor (GEM) as the measure for the degree of entrepreneurship of the countries. Based on the previous studies, not only national income level and unemployment rate, but also other factors including the cultural characteristics of the countries were included in our regression model. Using GEM's panel data, we found that the effectiveness of the factors depends on the stage of economic development. In particular, we found 'U-shape' relationship between the level of per capita income and entrepreneurship activity by the panel regression analysis using quadratic function. This analysis result can explicitly confirm what the existing literature have explained descriptively. Furthermore, the governmental support programs are shown to have significantly positive effects on the entrepreneurship or start-up activities in the factor-driven and efficiency-driven economies. On the contrary, those programs were not very helpful in the innovative economies. Lastly, this research suggests that the 'education and training' and the 'entrepreneurial culture' be the supportive norm for new business regardless of the economic development level.

A Case Research on the Outcome of Culture Projects with Comprehensive Funding : Focused on the Building Project of Specialized Region in Culture (통합형 포괄보조 문화사업의 성과분석 사례 연구 : 남원시 문화특화지역(문화도시형) 조성사업을 중심으로)

  • Jang, Segil
    • 지역과문화
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.31-55
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    • 2020
  • As a case study, this paper aims to analyze the outcome of culture projects that are, like the building project of culture city, comprehensively funded by integrating individual projects with various purposes. Considering that there is no assessment indicators on the performance of culture city building project, it tries to propose and analyze indicators for evaluating the outcome, influence, and effect of the project, by taking into account social, cultural, and economical effect. The analysis result demonstrates the building project of specialized region in culture has bigger income effect than the construction project of cultural facilities or cultural voucher program. Because income growth leads to consumption growth, a project type with bigger income effect has more influence on industrial growth. In other words, the study shows that comprehensive funding projects, by integrating programs related to cultural citizens, cultural programs, and cultural space, is more effective for sustainable cultural development of a region. And it means the way of government assistance for cultural projects does need to change from individual project-based to comprehensive funding project-based.

In about Factor of the Crime, According to Industry Recognized Security Increase of Efficiency (민간경비 산업의 범죄성장요인에 따른 효율성 제고방안)

  • Kang, Min-Wan;Ham, Ju-il
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.25
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2010
  • This research aims to provide a solution for the improvement of private security according to the change in criminal environment. The main cause of crime can be found in the anti-functional dimensions including value set disorder, social phenomenon variation, information-based, globalization and urbanization. In this environment, the private security sector has dramatically increased in a quantitative viewpoint, but it is insufficient in a qualitative viewpoint. This paper recognized this problem and demonstrates a solution for improvement through classifying elements of private security into relevant legislation, education institutions, security companies and security associations. The analysis result is a follows: First, motivation and satisfaction rate of escort and security related major has shown to be high. However, respondents evaluated the guard educational institution negatively. Second, the motivation of entering into the private security sector for internal staffs has shown to be positive and sound. However, the job satisfaction rate has shown to be low due to excessive competition, negative perception of occupation and low earning. Third, respondents gave an average mark to the Security Association's management and operation. In addition, the mutual-aid project received the same mark. Negative feedbacks were given to the protection of member's interest and to association operation and policy, while positive feedbacks were given to the degree of member's cooperation towards association policies.

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