• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2012.10a
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• pp.953-954
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• 2012

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.141-148
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• 2007

Recently, Korean national center for education statistics & information exhibits the results of forecast educational statistics from 2007 to 2021 year. The purpose of this paper is to suggest the errors and problems on the results of forecast educational statistics and the distribution of the number of students.

• Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.43-51
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• 1990

주요 17개국의 전기통신 보급율과 이용량을 이용하여 각 발전단계별 특징을 도출하였다. 아울러 전기통신수요의 특성과 전기통신산업의 다양화에 대한 분석을 하였으며, 전기통신 네트워크 발전과정의 국제비교를 통하여 특징들을 추출하였다.

• 한국전기화학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.44-44
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• 2003

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.24 no.12A
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• pp.2025-2033
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• 1999

In this paper, we forecast launching time of the commercial IMT-2000 service as feb. 2001, according to expert’s opinion, and most of they forecast rapid evolution. And, we propose two different models according to two cases for competition power of price for IMT-2000 service subscriber demand forecasting. In this paper, we combine the expert’s opinion method with the growth curve model for demand forecasting for new products in order to reduce error of the demand forecasting that haven’t past references. The estimation of needed coefficients for each growth curve model is based on experts’ subjective opinions.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.1481-1489
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• 2014

For predicting yearly total attendances in Korean probaseball games, ARIMA models have been widely adopted so far. In this paper, we discuss two other ways of ARIMAX and growth curves with an exogenous variable to predict the attendances. By using the exogenous variable, it turns out that the prediction has been improved compared to ARIMA. It is concluded that various statistical methods must be considered for better prediction, and its results can be applied to predict the attendances of other pro sports.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.12D no.1 s.97
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• pp.103-110
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• 2005

Software Development is converting from structural to object oriented method. The later software development prefers the iterative process applications, not aterfall process and based on use case model, the requirements are expressed and based on this, analysis, design and coding are accomplished. Therefore, size of the software to be developed is estimated basing on use case and it is only possible to maintain the project success by estimating development effort, cost and development period. Even though development effort estimation models related current use case point. there is no appropriate development effort estimating. This paper shows, as a result of applying the development effort estimating model about UCP to the growth curve, a superior performance improvement to current statistical models. Therefore, estimation of development effort by applying this model, project development maintenance can be appropriately carried out.

• Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.82-87
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• 1998

In the oxidation process of the $NH_3/O_2$ oxidation method, adding $NH_3$ gas to $O_2$ gas, the detected outlet gases in the reaction quartz chamber are N2, $O_2$ and $H_2O$ and in addition, a very small quantity of $CO_2$, NO and $NO_2$ are detected. Two kinds of species ($O_2$ and H2O) contribute to oxidation, so the growth rate is determined by oxidation temperature and by also partial pressure of the NH3 and $O_2$ gases. The slop of growth rate is identified to be medial and in parallel between that of the dry and wet oxidation. Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) indicates that $NH_3/O_2$ oxide film has a certain stoichiomerty of $SiO_2$, this oxidation method restrains the generation of defects in the $SiO_2/Si$ interface, minimizing fixed charges. The breakdown voltage of $NH_3/O_2$ oxide film (470$\AA$) is 57.5 volts, and the profile of the C-V curve including flat band voltage (0.29 volts) agree with the ideal curve.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• v.50 no.5
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• pp.601-612
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• 2008

This study was conducted to figure out how the shape of Hanwoo changes over time, examine the rank correlations between the carcass traits which are the selection traits and parameters of growth curve, and determine the correlation between body shape and carcass. Body weight, body measurements and carcass traits were measured from 161 castrated Hanwoo, and 12 growth traits and 5 carcass traits were investigated in total. The logistic model(Nelder, 1961) used for the estimation of growth curve parameters and growth characteristics at inflection point were calculated by these growth curve parameters. The value of this parameter was greatest for pinbone width, which suggests that it is an early ripening trait, while it was lowest for chest girth, suggesting it to be a late ripening trait. The rank correlations of chest depth, chest width, and hip width with backfat thickness steadily increased from 6 to 24 months, while the rank correlations of other traits decreased after 18 months until 24 months of age. Only phenotypic records were analyzed in this study, but for examine the genetic changes over growth phase in Hanwoo, if another additional genetic analysis like as estimation of genetic parameters should achieve, body measurements may be useful traits in proven bull selection.