• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.8
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• pp.617-628
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• 2021

Drought is a major natural disaster that causes serious social and economic losses. Local drought forecasts can provide important information for drought preparedness. In this study, we propose a new machine learning model that predicts drought by using historical drought indices and meteorological data from 10 sites from 1981 to 2020 in the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula, Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam. Using Bayesian optimization techniques, a hyper-parameter-tuned Random Forest, XGBoost, and Light GBM model were constructed to predict the evaporative demand drought index on a 6-month time scale after 1-month. The model performance was compared by constructing a single site model and a regional model, respectively. In addition, the possibility of improving the model performance was examined by constructing a fine-tuned model using data from a individual site based on the regional model.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.843-853
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• 2014

Accurate electricity demand forecasting for daily peak load is essential for management and planning at electrical facilities. In this paper, we rst, introduce the several time series models that forecast daily peak load and compare the forecasting performance of the models based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE). The results show that the Reg-AR-GARCH model outperforms other competing models that consider Cooling Degree Day(CDD) and Heating Degree Day(HDD) as well as seasonal components.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.842-848
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• 2020

Purpose: It is important to operate safely and economically in obsolescent power plant facilities. Economical operation is related in the balance of the supply and demand. Safety operation predicts the possible risks in the facilities and then, takes measures to the facilities. For the monitoring of the power plant facilities, we needs several kinds of the sensing system. From the sensors data, we can predict the possible risk. Method: We installed the acoustic, vibration, electric and smoke sensors in the power plant facilities. Using the data, we developed 3 kinds of prediction models, such as, demand prediction, plant engine abnormal prediction model, and risk prediction model. Results: Accuracy of the demand prediction model is over 90%. The other models make a stable operation of the system. Conclusion: For the sustainable operation of the obsolescent power plant, we developed 3 kinds of AI prediction models. The model apply to JB company's power plant facilities.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.251-259
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• 2012

This paper applies forecasting models such as ARIMA, Holt-Winters and AR-GARCH models to analyze daily tourism data in Korea. To evaluate the performance of the models, we need single and double seasonal models that compare the RMSE and SE for a better accuracy of the forecasting models based on Armstrong (2001).

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.87-95
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• 2016

This study examined the characteristics of the hourly demand of city gas in Korea and proposed multiple regression models to obtain precise estimates of the hourly demand of city gas. Forecasting the hourly demand of city gas with accuracy is essential in terms of safety and cost. If underestimated, the pipeline pressure needs to be increased sharply to meet the demand, when safety matters. In the opposite case, unnecessary inventory and operation costs are incurred. Data analysis showed that the hourly demand of city gas has a very high autocorrelation and that the 24-hour demand pattern of a day follows the previous 24-hour demand pattern of the same day. That is, there is a weekly cycle pattern. In addition, some conditions that temperature affects the hourly demand level were found. That is, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between the hourly demand and temperature is about 0.853 on average, while the absolute value of the correlation coefficient on a specific day improves to 0.861 at worst and 0.965 at best. Based on this analysis, this paper proposes a multiple regression model incorporating the hourly demand ahead of 24 hours and the hourly demand ahead of 168 hours, and another multiple regression model with temperature as an additional independent variable. To show the performance of the proposed models, computational experiments were carried out using real data of the domestic city gas demand from 2009 to 2013. The test results showed that the first regression model exhibits a forecasting accuracy of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) around 4.5% over the past five years from 2009 to 2013, while the second regression model exhibits 5.13% of MAPE for the same period.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.157-163
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• 2019

K-BEMS System was introduced to reduce peak load and to save total energy of the 120 buildings that KEPCO headquarter and branch offices use. K-BEMS system is composed of PV, battery, and hybrid PCS. In this system, ESS, PV, lighting is used to save building energy based on demand prediction. Currently, neural network technique for short past data is applied to demand prediction, and fixed scheduling method by operator for ESS charging/discharging is used. To enhance this system, KEPCO research institute has carried out this K-BEMS research project for 3 years since January 2016. As the result of this project, we developed new real-time highly reliable building demand prediction technique with error free and optimized automatic ESS charging/discharging technique. Through several field test, we can certify the developed algorithm performance successfully. So we will describe the details in this paper.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.473-481
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• 2010

Forecasting for air demand such as international passengers and freight has been one of the main interests for air industries. This research has mainly focus on the comparison of the performances of the multivariate time series models. In this paper, we used real data such as exchange rates, oil prices and export amounts to predict the future demand on international passenger and freight.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.67-73
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• 1997

CFD 연구를 초고속선 선형개발에 활용한다면 선체주위의 유동장 계산결과로부터 압력 및 속도, 자유표면 파고분포 등 초고속선의 설계 및 기본계획 단계에서 필요한 저항 및 추진성능 자료를 얻을 수 있다. 이러한 기능을 더욱 개선 발전시키면 선형개발에 더 많은 적용이 예상된다. 또한 항주 시간에 따른 초고속선의 운동특성을 고려할 수 있게 된다면 앞으로 항주자세제어 및 내항성능과 승선감의 추정도 CFD 연구를 통해서 가능하리라 믿는다. 이제 국내 조선소를 중심으로, 21세기에 도래할 것으로 예측되는 고속 해상수송 수단에 대한 수요에 대응하고 조선기술의 우위확보를 위해 고부가가치, 고성능이 요구되는 초고속선 기술개발에 연구를 집중해야겠다.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.23 no.9
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• pp.108-116
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• 2009

In this paper, we develop an ELM(Extreme Learning Machine) based short-tenn water demand prediction algorithm which solves overfitting problem of MLP(Multi Layer Perceptron) and has quick training time. To show effectiveness of proposed method, we analyzed time series data collected in A water treatment plant at Chung-Nam province during $2007{\sim}2008$ years and used the selected data for the verification of developed algorithm. According to the experimental results, MLP model showed 5.82[%], but the proposed ELM based model showed 5.61[%] with respect to MAPE, respectively. Also, MLP model needed 7.57s training time, but ELM based model was 0.09s. Therefore, the proposed ELM based short-term water demand prediction model can be used to operate the water treatment plant effectively.

• Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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• 2010.11b
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• pp.944-946
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• 2010

열교환기는 공조 및 기타 산업현장에서 많은 수요가 창출되고 있는데 본 논문에서는 3차원 수치해석을 이용하여 수송기계의 오일쿨러나 연료쿨러에 쓰이는 전형적인 열교환기에 대한 방열 성능을 해석하였다. 열교환기의 핀 타입 중 wavy 및 louver에 대하여 열교환기 성능 실험 데이터를 이용하는 3차원 열교환기 모델을 완성하고 통과 풍량에 따른 열교환량을 예측하였다. 이는 열교환기를 통과하는 풍속이 균일하지 않을 때 열교환량을 예측할 수 있어 설계 정확성 향상에 기여할 수 있다.