• Title/Summary/Keyword: 선형 회귀식

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Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

Economic Injury Level of Mamestra brassicae L. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on Early Stage of Cabbage (Brassica oleracea L. var capitata L.) (양배추에서 생육초기 도둑나방의 경제적피해수준 설정)

  • Kang, Taek-Jun;Jeon, Heung-Yong;Kim, Hyeong-Hwan;Yang, Chang-Yeol;Kim, Dong-Soon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.237-243
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to develop economic injury level (ElL) and economic threshold (ET) of Cabbage armyworm, Mamestra brassicae L. on cabbage (Brassica oleracea L. var). The changes of cabbage biomass and M. brassicae density were investigated after introduction of larval M. brassicae (2nd instar) at different densities: 0, 1, 2, 4, 8, and 16 larvae per plant at 40 d after planting for an open field experiment, and 0, 2, 5, 8 and 12 larvae per plant at 25 d after planting for a glass house experiment. In the field experiment, the yield loss of cabbage was not significantly different among treated-plots at 30 d after the larval introduction, showing an over-compensatory response of cabbage plants to M. brassicae attack. In the glasshouse experiment, however, the biomass of cabbage at 15 d after the larval introduction significantly decreased with increasing the initial introduced number of M. brassicae, resulting in 38.3, 36.7, 21.7, 23.3 and 16.7g in above treated-plots, respectively. The relationship between cumulative insect days (CID) and yield loss (%) of cabbage was well described by a nonlinear logistic equation. Using the estimated equation, ElL of M. brassicae on cabbage was estimated at 44 CID per plant based on the yield loss 14%, which take into account of an empirical gain threshold 5% and marketable rate 91% of cabbage. Also, ET was calculated at 80% of the EIL: 35 CID per plant. Until a more elaborate EIL-model is developed, the present result may be useful for M. brassicae management at early growth stage of cabbage.

Chromosomal Aberrations Induced by in Vitro Irradiation of $^{131}I$ ($^{131}I$의 체외 방사선조사에 의한 염색체이상)

  • Kim, Eun-Sil;Kim, Myung-Seon;Seo, Doo-Seon;Jeong, Nae-In;Rho, Seung-Ik;Lee, Jae-Yong;Kim, Chong-Soon;Han, Seung-Soo;Kim, Hee-Geun;Kang, Duck-Won;Song, Myung-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 1994
  • Recently, there are many considerations and studies on biological effects of radiations in radiation workers, as well as in accidentally or therapeutically irradiated persons. The most practical and reliable method of dosimetry for radiation accidents is the scoring of gross chromosomal aberrations in human lymphocytes (Ydr) as a biological dosimetry. By the way, although usual doses of $^{131}I$ administered therapeutically for thyroid cancer are ranging from 100 mCi to 200 mCi, there are differences of absorbed doses and Ydr, ranging from 0.004 to 0.04, on equally administered $^{131}I$ due to variations in metabolic characteristics, stage of tumors and physical status of subjects. In this study, We exert to obtain the dose-response relationships of $^{131}I$, as a good guide to evaluating acute effects of accidental irradiations and radiation induced leukemia or solid tumor, by in vitro induction of chromosomal aberrations. we studied the relationship between radiation dose (D) and the frequency of chromosomal aberrations (Ydr) obserbed in peripheral lymphocytes that were irradiated in vitro with $^{131}I$ at doses ranging from 0.05 to 6.00 Gy. By scoring cells with unstable chromosomal aberrations (dicentric chromosomes and ring chromosomes) we obtained this linear-quadratic dose response equation Ydr=0.064351 $D^2$-0.13143 D+0.045684 This dose-response relationship may be useful for evaluating acute and chronic $^{131}I$ induced biological effects.

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Studies on the Mechanical Properties of Weathered Granitic Soil -On the Elements of Shear Strength and Hardness- (화강암질풍화토(花崗岩質風化土)의 역학적(力學的) 성질(性質)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) -전단강도(剪斷强度)의 영향요소(影響要素)와 견밀도(堅密度)에 대(對)하여-)

  • Cho, Hi Doo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.66 no.1
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    • pp.16-36
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    • 1984
  • It is very important in forestry to study the shear strength of weathered granitic soil, because the soil covers 66% of our country, and because the majority of land slides have been occured in the soil. In general, the causes of land slide can be classified both the external and internal factors. The external factors are known as vegetations, geography and climate, but internal factors are known as engineering properties originated from parent rocks and weathering. Soil engineering properties are controlled by the skeleton structure, texture, consistency, cohesion, permeability, water content, mineral components, porosity and density etc. of soils. And the effects of these internal factors on sliding down summarize as resistance, shear strength, against silding of soil mass. Shear strength basically depends upon effective stress, kinds of soils, density (void ratio), water content, the structure and arrangement of soil particles, among the properties. But these elements of shear strength work not all alone, but together. The purpose of this thesis is to clarify the characteristics of shear strength and the related elements, such as water content ($w_o$), void ratio($e_o$), dry density (${\gamma}_d$) and specific gravity ($G_s$), and the interrelationship among related elements in order to decide the dominant element chiefly influencing on shear strength in natural/undisturbed state of weathered granitic soil, in addition to the characteristics of soil hardness of weathered granitic soil and root distribution of Pinus rigida Mill and Pinus rigida ${\times}$ taeda planted in erosion-controlled lands. For the characteristics of shear strength of weathered granitic soil and the related elements of shear strength, three sites were selected from Kwangju district. The outlines of sampling sites in the district were: average specific gravity, 2.63 ~ 2.79; average natural water content, 24.3 ~ 28.3%; average dry density, $1.31{\sim}1.43g/cm^3$, average void ratio, 0.93 ~ 1.001 ; cohesion, $ 0.2{\sim}0.75kg/cm^2$ ; angle of internal friction, $29^{\circ}{\sim}45^{\circ}$ ; soil texture, SL. The shear strength of the soil in different sites was measured by a direct shear apparatus (type B; shear box size, $62.5{\times}20mm$; ${\sigma}$, $1.434kg/cm^2$; speed, 1/100mm/min.). For the related element analyses, water content was moderated through a series of drainage experiments with 4 levels of drainage period, specific gravity was measured by KS F 308, analysis of particle size distribution, by KS F 2302 and soil samples were dried at $110{\pm}5^{\circ}C$ for more than 12 hours in dry oven. Soil hardness represents physical properties, such as particle size distribution, porosity, bulk density and water content of soil, and test of the hardness by soil hardness tester is the simplest approach and totally indicative method to grasp the mechanical properties of soil. It is important to understand the mechanical properties of soil as well as the chemical in order to realize the fundamental phenomena in the growth and the distribution of tree roots. The writer intended to study the correlation between the soil hardness and the distribution of tree roots of Pinus rigida Mill. planted in 1966 and Pinus rigida ${\times}$ taeda in 199 to 1960 in the denuded forest lands with and after several erosion control works. The soil texture of the sites investigated was SL originated from weathered granitic soil. The former is situated at Py$\ddot{o}$ngchangri, Ky$\ddot{o}$m-my$\ddot{o}$n, Kogs$\ddot{o}$ng-gun, Ch$\ddot{o}$llanam-do (3.63 ha; slope, $17^{\circ}{\sim}41^{\circ}$ soil depth, thin or medium; humidity, dry or optimum; height, 5.66/3.73 ~ 7.63 m; D.B.H., 9.7/8.00 ~ 12.00 cm) and the Latter at changun-long Kwangju-shi (3.50 ha; slope, $12^{\circ}{\sim}23^{\circ}$; soil depth, thin; humidity, dry; height, 10.47/7.3 ~ 12.79 m; D.B.H., 16.94/14.3 ~ 19.4 cm).The sampling areas were 24quadrats ($10m{\times}10m$) in the former area and 12 in the latter expanding from summit to foot. Each sampling trees for hardness test and investigation of root distribution were selected by purposive selection and soil profiles of these trees were made at the downward distance of 50 cm from the trees, at each quadrat. Soil layers of the profile were separated by the distance of 10 cm from the surface (layer I, II, ... ...). Soil hardness was measured with Yamanaka soil hardness tester and indicated as indicated soil hardness at the different soil layers. The distribution of tree root number per unit area in different soil depth was investigated, and the relationship between the soil hardness and the number of tree roots was discussed. The results obtained from the experiments are summarized as follows. 1. Analyses of simple relationship between shear strength and elements of shear strength, water content ($w_o$), void ratio ($e_o$), dry density (${\gamma}_d$) and specific gravity ($G_s$). 1) Negative correlation coefficients were recognized between shear strength and water content. and shear strength and void ratio. 2) Positive correlation coefficients were recognized between shear strength and dry density. 3) The correlation coefficients between shear strength and specific gravity were not significant. 2. Analyses of partial and multiple correlation coefficients between shear strength and the related elements: 1) From the analyses of the partial correlation coefficients among water content ($x_1$), void ratio ($x_2$), and dry density ($x_3$), the direct effect of the water content on shear strength was the highest, and effect on shear strength was in order of void ratio and dry density. Similar trend was recognized from the results of multiple correlation coefficient analyses. 2) Multiple linear regression equations derived from two independent variables, water content ($x_1$ and dry density ($x_2$) were found to be ineffective in estimating shear strength ($\hat{Y}$). However, the simple linear regression equations with an independent variable, water content (x) were highly efficient to estimate shear strength ($\hat{Y}$) with relatively high fitness. 3. A relationship between soil hardness and the distribution of root number: 1) The soil hardness increased proportionally to the soil depth. Negative correlation coefficients were recognized between indicated soil hardness and the number of tree roots in both plantations. 2) The majority of tree roots of Pinus rigida Mill and Pinus rigida ${\times}$ taeda planted in erosion-controlled lands distributed at 20 cm deep from the surface. 3) Simple linear regression equations were derived from indicated hardness (x) and the number of tree roots (Y) to estimate root numbers in both plantations.

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Development and Evaluation of Traffic Conflict Criteria at an intersection (교차로 교통상충기준 개발 및 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 하태준;박형규;박제진;박찬모
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.105-115
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    • 2002
  • For many rears, traffic accident statistics are the most direct measure of safety for a signalized intersection. However it takes more than 2 or 3 yearn to collect certain accident data for adequate sample sizes. And the accident data itself is unreliable because of the difference between accident data recorded and accident that is actually occurred. Therefore, it is rather difficult to evaluate safety for a intersection by using accident data. For these reasons, traffic conflict technique(TCT) was developed as a buick and accurate counter-measure of safety for a intersection. However, the collected conflict data is not always reliable because there is absence of clear criteria for conflict. This study developed objective and accurate conflict criteria, which is shown below based on traffic engineering theory. Frist, the rear-end conflict is regarded, when the following vehicle takes evasive maneuver against the first vehicle within a certain distance, according to car-following theory. Second, lane-change conflict is regarded when the following vehicle takes evasive maneuver against first vehicle which is changing its lane within the minimum stopping distance of the following vehicle. Third, cross and opposing-left turn conflicts are regarded when the vehicle which receives green sign takes evasive maneuver against the vehicle which lost its right-of-way crossing a intersection. As a result of correlation analysis between conflict and accident, it is verified that the suggested conflict criteria in this study ave applicable. And it is proven that estimating safety evaluation for a intersection with conflict data is possible, according to the regression analysis preformed between accident and conflict, EPDO accident and conflict. Adopting the conflict criteria suggested in this study would be both quick and accurate method for diagnosing safety and operational deficiencies and for evaluation improvements at intersections. Further research is required to refine the suggested conflict criteria to extend its application. In addition, it is necessary to develope other types of conflict criteria, not included in this study, in later study.

Design Factor Analysis of End-Effector for Oriental Melon Harvesting Robot in Greenhouse Cultivation (시설재배 참외 수확 로봇용 엔드이펙터의 설계 요인 분석)

  • Ha, Yu Shin;Kim, Tae Wook
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.284-290
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    • 2013
  • This study analyzed the geometric, compressive, cutting and friction properties of oriental melons in order to design a gripper capable of soft handling and a cutter for cutting oriental melon vine among the end effector of oriental melon as a preliminary step for developing the end effector of the robot capable of harvesting oriental melons in protected cultivation. As a result, the average length, diameter at the midpoint, weight, volume and roundness of the oriental melons were 108 mm, 70 mm, 188 g, 333 mL and 3.8 mm. Nonlinear regression analysis was performed on the equation $W=L^a{\times}D_2^b$ with variation of the length (L) and diameter (D2) of the weight (W) of the oriental melons. As a result, it was shown that there was a correlation between a of 2.0279 and b of -0.9998 as a constant value. The average diameter of the oriental melon vine was 3.8 mm, and most vines were distributed within a radius of 5 mm from the center. The average yield value, compressive strength and hardness of the oriental melons were $36.5N/cm^2$, $185.7N/cm^2$ and $636.7N/cm^2$, respectively. The average cutting force and shear strength of the oriental melon vines were $2.87{\times}10^{-2}\;N$ and $5.60N/cm^2$, respectively. The maximum friction coefficient of the oriental melons was rubber of 0.609, followed by aluminium of 0.393, stainless steel of 0.177 and teflon of 0.079. It was considered possible to apply it to the size of the gripper and cutter, turning radius, dynamics of drive motor and selection of materials and their quality in light of the position error and safety factor according to the movement when designing end effector based on the analyzed data.

Effects of Heat Treatment of Three Animal by-products on Ruminal Degradation Characteristics and Intestinal Availability of Crude Protein (동물성 부산물 사료 세 종류에 대한 열처리가 조단백질의 반추위내 분해특성 및 하부장기내 이용성에 미치는 영향)

  • Moon, Y.H.;Lee, S.C.;Kim, B.K.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2002
  • In order to investigate the effects of heat treatment of three animal by-products(feather meal, tallow meal, viscera meal) on in situ ruminal degradation characteristics and gastrointestinal availability of dietary crude protein(CP), three ruminally and duodenally cannulated dry Holstein cows were employed. Cows were fed a diet containing 60% concentrate and 40% orchard grass hay, and had free access to water and mineral block. Experimental feeds were processed for 4 hr at 149$^{\circ}C$ in a forced-air oven, and were passed through a 1-mm screen. Degradation kinetics of feed protein in the rumen were fitted to an exponential type model, and intestinal availability was estimated by the mobile nylon bag technique. Effective CP degradabilities in the rumen for feather meal, tallow meal and viscera meal were 30.2%, 75.0% and 56.4% at 5% passage rate per hour(k=0.05), respectively. In addition, heat treatment increased effective ruminal CP degradability on feather meal and viscera meal treatments, whereas decreased in tallow meal treatment(P$<$0.05). Gastrointestinal CP disappearances of feather meal, tallow meal and viscera meal were 56.2%, 18.6%, and 37.9%, respectively. In addition, heat treatment decreased the gastrointestinal CP disappearance on feather meal and viscera meal treatment, but increased in tallow meal treatment(P$<$0.05). Intestinal availability of rumen undegradable protein(A-UDP) was 80.4% for feather meal, 83.8% for tallow meal and 86.9% for viscera meal. In addition, heat treatment increased A-UDP on feather meal and tallow meal treatment, 94.0% and 91.3%, respectively, but decreased on viscera meal treatment, 76.5%(P$<$0.05).

Adsorption of Trace Metals on the Natural Amorphous Iron Oxyhydroxide from the Taebag Coal Mine Area (태백 탄전 지대의 비정질 철 수산화물에 대한 희귀원소의 흡착)

  • Yu, Jae-Young;Park, In-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 1994
  • To determine the apparent equilibrium constants, K$_{ad,app}$, for the adsorption reactions of trace metals on amorphous iron oxyhydroxide (AIO) in the Taebag coal mine area, time-adsorption and pH-adsorption experiments were performed for a selected bottom sediment mainly comprised of AIO from the study area. The results from the adsorption experiments indicate that most of the trace metals, except Pb, achieve equilibrium states with AIO and thus, the calculated K$_{ad,app}$ may represent the true apparent equilibrium constants. K$_{ad,app}$ and the stoichiometric coefficients of proton, x, of the adsorption reactions between the trace metals and AIO were respectively calculated from the intercepts and slopes of the regression lines of log($\Gamma$/ [M]$_{aq}$)against pH provided by pH-adsorption experiments. The calculated K$_{ad,app}$ this study has the values of the range from 10$^{-4.5}$ to 10$^{2.75}$ , which is much different from the reported values by other investigators for simple experimental systems. K$_{ad,app}$ of this study is more or less close but not exactly pertinent to the estimated values for the other natural systems. It indicates that K$_{ad,app}$ for the adsorption reactions in the aquatic system in the study area is unique and thus should be determined befor the adsorption modelling. The calculated x of this study has the values of the range from -0.3 to 0.7, which is also much different from what most geochemists generally accept. The discrepancy in x may be due to the competition among different kinds of ionic species on the adsorption site or simulataneous occurrence of different kinds of adsorption reactions. The results from this study should help construct an appropriate adsorption model for the aquatic systems polluted by the coal mine drainage in the Taebag area. With the constructed model, one can describe the concentration variations of trace metals due to the adsorption in the system, which is an essential part of the investigation on the water quality affected by coal mine drainage in the Taebag coal field.

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AGE ESTIMATION USING PANORAMIC RADIOGRAPHS OF DEVELOPING PERMANENT TEETH (발육중인 영구치의 파노라마 방사선 사진 계측을 이용한 연령 추정)

  • Choi, Eun-Young;Choi, Nam-Ki;Kim, Seon-Mi;Yang, Kyu-Ho
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.215-221
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    • 2007
  • The aim of this study was to test whether metric measurements of crown length, root length and apex width during tooth development could be a better basis for correlation with age than the classical methods based on subjective estimations of various stages of tooth development. Panoramic radiographs of 120 children, aged 7 to 9 years, were collected from the department of the pediatric dentistry of Chonnam National University Hospital, Korea. The methods of Mornstad was used to estimate age. The structures measured were crown length root length and apex width in panoramic radiographic. The results were as follows : 1. In the boys, it showed higher correlation between lower 2nd molar crown length, lower 1st molar root length or lower 1st permolar apical width and age. In the girls, it showed higher correlation between lower 2nd premolar crown length, lower 2nd molar root length or lower 1st molar apical width and age. 2. With the aid of a multiple regression model, a linear relationship between some of these distances and age was shown. Boy(months) = 43.958 + lower 2nd molar crown length ${\times}$ 4.392 + lower 1st molar root length ${\times}$ 2.255 - lower 1st permolar apical width ${\times}$ 2.046, Girl(months) = 75.213 + lower 2nd premolar crown length ${\times}$ 3.910 lower 2nd molar root length ${\times}$ 2.280 - lower 1st molar apical width ${\times}$ 6.217 Age was estimated in boys and girls using the mathematic model ; the mean difference between chronological and estimated ages was $-2.1{\pm}6.8$ months for boys and $6.1{\pm}6.2$ months for girls. Therefore, it seems to be more accurate and easier than the earlier methods.

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Factors Affecting Growth Curve Parameters of Hanwoo Cows (한우 암소의 성장곡선 모수에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Lee, C.W.;Choi, J.G.;Jeon, K.J.;Na, K.J.;Lee, C.;Hwang, J.M.;Kim, J.B.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.711-724
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    • 2003
  • Some growth curve models were used to fit individual growth of 1,083 Hanwoo cows born from 1970 to 2001 in Daekwanryeong branch, National Livestock Research Institute(NLRI). The effects of year-season of birth and age of dam were analyzed. In analysis of variance for growth curve parameters, the effects of birth year-season were significant for mature weight(A), growth ratio(b) and maturing rate(k)(P〈.01). The effects of age of dam were significant for growth ratio(b) but not significant for mature weight(A) and maturing rate(k). The linear term of the covariate of age at the final weights was significant for the A(P〈.01) and k(P〈.01) of Gompertz model, von Bertalanffy model and Logistic model. For the growth curve parameters fitted on individual data using Gompertz model, von Bertalanffy model and Logistic model, resulting the linear contrasts(fall-spring), Least square means of A in three nonlinear models were higher cows born at fall and A of Logistic model was significant(P〈.05) between the seasons. According to the results of the least square means of growth curve parameters by age of dam, least square means of mature weight(A) in Gompertz model was largest in 6 year and smallest estimating for 3 and 8 years of age of dam. The growth ratio(b) was largest in 2 year of age of dam and smallest estimating in 8 year. The A and k were not different by age of dam(p〉.05), On the other hand, the b was different by age of dam(p〈.01). The estimate of A in von Bertalanffy model was largest in 6 year and smallest in 8 and 9 years of age of dam. The b was largest in 2 year and tend to decline as age of dam increased. The A and k were not different by age of dam(p〉.05), On the other hand, the b was highly significant by age of dam(p〈.01).