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Analysis of Co-movement and Causality between Supply-Demand Factors and the Shipping Market: Evidence from Wavelet Approach (웨이블릿 분석을 통한 수요-공급요인과 해운시황의 연관성 분석)

  • Jeong, Hoejin;Yun, Heesung;Lee, Keehwan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.87-104
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    • 2022
  • Considering the complex structure and high volatility in the shipping market, it is important to investigate the connectedness amongst influencing factors. This study explores the dynamic relationship between supply-demand factors and shipping freight indices. We choose Capesize and Panamax in the bulk carrier market and use quarterly data of GDP, world fleet, BCI, and BPI from 1999 to 2021. Applying the wavelet analysis and wavelet Granger causality test, the simultaneous examination of co-movement and causality between two factors and the shipping market in both the time and frequency domains is achieved. We find that co-movement and causality vary across time and frequencies, thereby existing dynamic relationships between variables. Second, compared to multiple coherencies using demand and supply factors together, partial coherencies indicate noticeable causalities. It implies that analyzing demand and supply factors separately is essential. Finally, shipping freight indices show a high correlation with the demand factor in a good market and with the supply factor in a bad market. Generally, GDP positively leads shipping freights in the recovery phase while the world fleet negatively leads shipping freights in the downturn. The research is meaningful in that the rarely-applied wavelet analysis is adopted in the shipping market and that it gives a reasonable ground to explain the role of supply and/or demand factors in different phases of the market cycle.

433 MHz Radio Frequency and 2G based Smart Irrigation Monitoring System (433 MHz 무선주파수와 2G 통신 기반의 스마트 관개 모니터링 시스템)

  • Manongi, Frank Andrew;Ahn, Sung-Hoon
    • Journal of Appropriate Technology
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.136-145
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    • 2020
  • Agriculture is the backbone of the economy of most developing countries. In these countries, agriculture or farming is mostly done manually with little integration of machinery, intelligent systems and data monitoring. Irrigation is an essential process that directly influences crop production. The fluctuating amount of rainfall per year has led to the adoption of irrigation systems in most farms. The absence of smart sensors, monitoring methods and control, has led to low harvests and draining water sources. In this research paper, we introduce a 433 MHz Radio Frequency and 2G based Smart Irrigation Meter System and a water prepayment system for rural areas of Tanzania with no reliable internet coverage. Specifically, Ngurudoto area in Arusha region where it will be used as a case study for data collection. The proposed system is hybrid, comprising of both weather data (evapotranspiration) and soil moisture data. The architecture of the system has on-site weather measurement controllers, soil moisture sensors buried on the ground, water flow sensors, a solenoid valve, and a prepayment system. To achieve high precision in linear and nonlinear regression and to improve classification and prediction, this work cascades a Dynamic Regression Algorithm and Naïve Bayes algorithm.

하계 전기, 전자연합학술회의 및 산학협동 심포지엄 초록

  • 대한전기학회
    • 전기의세계
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.33-54
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    • 1978
  • (차례) 1.산학협동심포지업 (1)우리나라에서의 연구개발과 산학협동 (2)산학협동과 산업계의 역할 (3)산학협동의 현황과 진로 2.학술회의A (1)전력게통의 계층구조와 협조원리에 관한 연구 (2)2중층괴상회전자 유도전동기의 이론해석 (3)초고주파가열장치에 사용하는 철공진변압기의 해석적 설계 (4)한국전기기시험연구소 대전력단락 시험설비설계 (5)직류전동기제어를 위한 Thyristor Chopper정류회로에 관한 연구 (6)선로의 개폐정보를 포함하는 전력계통의 상태추정 (7)단일신경세포에 대한 ITEM 신호 특성 3.학술회의B (1)MMM-1 Computer System의 설계 및 제작 (2)Adaptive Delta Modulation System의 성능비교 연구 (3)6GHZ FMD마이크로파 무선전송장치의 개발 (4)적선도에 의한 회로망함수의 결정 (5)동맥혈압의 해석과 그의 전기적 유사모델 (6)피부감각의 정보전달 특성에 관하여 (7)선형직접회로의 공정설계 및 그 특성 조성 (8)DH L.D의 전기적포화현상에 관한 이론적 해석 (9)Potocoupler를 이용한 Isolator 4.학술회의C (1)Al-Al$_{2}$O$_{3}$ -Al박막구조의 전기적 특성 (2)이종금속에 샌드위치된 고분자물질의 단락전조 (3)유전체가 일부체워진 직 6면체의 캐비티의 다중모오드 해석 (4)반도체 가스 검지소자의 제조 및 그의 전기적 특성 (5)실리콘 산화공정에 대한 실험적 고찰 (6)진공증착법에 의한 InSb 박막제도에서 열처리효과 (7)(Ba$_{1}$-xBix) Tio$_{3}$ PTC thermistor의 첨가량의 최적건안 (8)금속박막증착시 두께조절 5.특별강연회 (1)일본에 있어서의 절력계통공학연구 (2)Linear Motor의 최근개발동향량도 높았다. valine과 leucine 및 aspartic acid, glycine과 glutamic acid, leucine과 aspartic acid 간에는 고도의 정상관, glycine과 serine, valine과 phenylalanine, threonine과 proline, phenylalanine과 arginine, methionine과 glutamic acid, histidine과 lysine 간에는 유의 정상관, 그리고 isoleucine과 lysine 간에는 유의한 부상관이 있었다. 4. lysine 함량은 단백질 함량과 정산곤, isoleucine 함량은 단빅질 함량과 부상관을 보였으며, alanine, valine, leucine 함량은 지방함량과 각각 유의한 정산관을 보였다. 5. 대두 단백질은 7.5% acrylamide gel 전기영동에 의해 품종에 따라 12~16개의 구성분으로 분리되었으며, 이들중 주구성분들은 상대이동도가 0.06(a), 0.14(b). 0.24(d) 이었고, 구성분 b의 함량이 품종간에 가장 변이가 컸으며, 구성분 b는 그밖의 주요 구성분들의 함량과 부의 상관이 있었고, 구성분 a는 단백질 함량과 정상관이 있었다. 6. 종실단백질 구성분들의 조합 특성 면에서 공시 86품종은 11개 유형군으로 분류되었으며, 우리나라와 일본품종은 미국품종에 비해 단백질구성분 조성이 훨씬 다양하였다. 7. 이동도가 매우 빠른 단백질 구성분 o(Rm 0.77) p(Rm 0.81)를 모두 갖고 있는 품종은 3품종, 모두 갖고 있지 않은 품종은 1품종이었고, 나머지 82품종은 o나 p중 한 구성분을 갖고 있었으며 그 분포율은 30 : 65 이었는데 미국계 품종은 우리나라 품종에 비해 구성분 o를 간고 있는 비율이 현저히 적었다. 8. 대두 종실은 개화후 22일까지 완만히, 그 이후 20~30일간 급속히

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Geotechnical Hybrid Simulation System for the Quantitative Prediction of the Residual Deformation in the Liquefiable Sand During and After Earthquake Motion (액상화 가능 지반의 진동 도중 및 후의 잔류 변형에 대한 정량적 예측을 위한 하이브리드 시뮬레이션 시스템)

  • Kwon, Young Cheul
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1C
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 2006
  • Despite several constitutive models have been proposed and applied, it is still difficult to choose a suitable model and to estimate adequate analysis parameters. Furthermore, a cyclic shear behavior under the volume change caused by the seepage is more complex. None of the constitutive model is available at present in the expression of the cyclic behavior of soil under an additional volume change condition by seepage. Therefore, a new geotechnical hybrid simulation system which can control the pore water immigration was developed. The system enables a quantitative evaluation of the residual deformation such as lateral spreading and settlement caused by the liquefaction. The seismic responses in a one-dimensional slightly inclined multilayered soil system are taken into consideration, and the soils are governed by both equation of motion and the continuity equation. Furthermore, the estimation and the selection of the soil parameter for the representation of the strong nonlinearity of the material are not required, because soil behaviors under the earthquake motions are directly introduced instead of a numerical soil constitutive model. This paper presents the concept and specifications of the system. By applying the system to an example problem, the permeability effect on the seismic response during cyclic shear is studied. The importance of the volume change characteristics of sandy soil during and after cyclic shear is shown in conclusion.

Characteristic of Wave Diffraction and Reflection for Irregular Waves in SWASH Model Around Small Port Structures (소규모 항만 구조물 주변에서 불규칙파에 대한 SWASH 모형의 반사 및 회절)

  • Kwon, Kyong Hwan;Park, Chang Wook;Park, Il Heum;Kim, Jong Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.468-477
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    • 2019
  • The numerical model of Boussinesq approximation, which is mainly used for evaluating the port calmness due to the irregular waves, has a limit of applicability of lattice size in ports such as marinas with narrow port openings of around 30m. The SWASH model controls the partial reflection according to the depth, porosity coefficient and structure size when applying the reflected wave incident on the structure and terrain. In this study, the partial reflection evaluation at the front of the structure according to the bottom shape and the shape of the structure are examined. In order to evaluate the reproducibility of the model due to the diffraction waves entering the term, the area of incidence at right angles and inclination of the structure is constructed and compared with the diffraction theory suggested by Goda et al. (1978). The experimental results of the sectional structure reflectances calculated as the depth mean show reflectances similar to the approximate values of the reflectances presented by Stelling and Ahrens (1981). It is considered that the reflected wave is well reproduced according to the control of the reflected wave at the boundary and the shape and topography of the structure. Compared with previous studies to examine the diffraction of the wave incident from the breakwater opening, the wave incidence angle and the shape of the diffraction wave are very similar to the theoretical values, but both oblique and rectangular incidence In the case where the direction concentration is small, the diffraction degree is underestimated in some sections with the crest ratio of 0.5 to 0.6.

Changes in Transpiration Rates and Growth of Cucumber and Tomato Scions and Rootstocks Grown Under Different Light Intensity Conditions in a Closed Transplant Production System (식물공장형육묘시스템 내 광량에 따른 오이와 토마토 접수 및 대목의 증발산량 및 생육 변화)

  • Park, Seon Woo;An, Sewoong;Kwack, Yurina
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.399-405
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    • 2020
  • Recently, it is difficult to produce uniform scions and rootstocks with high quality in a greenhouse due to weather extremes. The closed transplant production system is useful for producing scions and rootstocks with desirable morphological characteristics by environment control regardless of weather outside. In this study, we investigated transpiration rates and growth of cucumber and tomato scions and rootstocks grown under different light intensity conditions for precise irrigation control in a closed transplant production system. Hanging system to measure continuously the weight of plug tray consisting of seedlings and substrate with load-cell was installed in each growing bed. Using this system, we confirmed initial wilting point of cucumber and tomato seedlings, and conducted subirrigation when moisture content of substrate was not below 50%. The irrigation time of cucumber scions and rootstocks were 7 and 6 days after sowing, respectively. In tomato scions and rootstocks grown under PPF (photosynthetic photon flux) 300 μmol·m-2·s-1, the irrigation time were 5, 8, 11, and 13 days after sowing. Increasing light intensity increased transpiration rates and differences of transpiration rates by light intensity was higher in tomato seedlings. The growth of cucumber and tomato seedlings was promoted by increasing light intensity, especially, hypocotyl elongation and stem thickening was affected by light intensity. Cumulative transpiration rate of plug tray in cucumber and tomato seedlings was increased by increasing light intensity, and daily transpiration rate per seedling was regressed by 1st-order linear equation with high correlation coefficient. Estimation of transpiration rates by weighing continuously plug tray of vegetable seedlings can be useful to control more accurately irrigation schedule in a closed transplant production system.

Radical Radiotherapy for Carcinoma of the Prostate (전립선암의 근치적 방사선치료)

  • Chun, Ha-Chung;Lee, Myung-Za
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.40-44
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    • 2001
  • Purpose : To evaluate effect and tolerance of external beam radiotherapy for carcinoma of the prostate and define the optimal radiotherapeutic regimen. Materials and methods : We retrospectively analyzed the records of 60 patients with prostate cancer who were treated with external beam radiotherapy with curative intent in our institution between September, 1987 and March, 2000. Histologic diagnosis was established by transurethral resection or ultrasonography guided biopsy. The major presenting symptoms were a nodule at routine prostatic examination and frequency and urgency of urination, along with dysuria. The median age was 63 years with range of 51 to 87 years. There were 6 patients in Stage A, 20 in Stage 8, 26 in Stage C, and 8 in Stage Dl. All patients were treated with megavoltage equipment producing 10 MV photons. The 4 field pelvic brick technique was used to a dose of 45 Gy or 50.4 Gy at 1.8 Gy per day in 5 to 6 weeks, after which a small boost field was delivered 2.0 Gy per day to a total dose of 66 to 70 Gy. The follow-up period ranged from 1 to 8 years. Results : Actuarial 5-year and 7-year survival rates for Stage A, B, C, and D1 were $100\%\;and\;84\%$, $83\%\;and\;72\%$, $67\%\;and\;54\%$, and $v$, respectively. The corresponding 5-year and 7-year relapse free survival rates were $84\%\;and\;84\%$, $77\%\;and\;67\%$, $48\%\;and\;40\%$, and $33\%\;and\;25\%$, respectively. Relapse free 5-year survival rates for Stage B were $80\%,\;80\%,\;and\;50\%$ for well, moderately, and poorly differentiated tumors, respectively. These were $64\%,\;44\%,\;and\;33\%$ for Stage C, respectively. The local control rates at 5 years were $84\%,\;85\%,\;78\%,\;and\;60\%$ for Stage A, B, C, and D1, respectively. Mild to moderate complications were observed in $22\%$ of patients. Severe complications requiring surgical procedures were documented in only $3\%$ of patients. Conclusion : This study confirms that external beam irradiation is an effective and safe treatment for prostatic cancer, providing long-term local control and good survival with acceptable complications.

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Results of Postoperative Radiation Therapy of Rectal Cancers - with the Emphasis of the Overall Treatment Time - (직장암의 수술 후 방사선치료의 성적 - 예후 인자와 전체 치료기간이 미치는 영향에 관한 고찰 -)

  • Kim Joo-Young;Lee Myung-Hag;Lee Kyu-Chan
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.303-310
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : To evaluate the results of the treatment of locally advanced but resectable rectal cancers and to analyze prognostic factors. especially with the emphasis on the treatment time factor. Materials and Methods : There were 71 patients with rectal cancer who had been treated by curative surgical procedure and postoperative radiotherapy from August 1989 to December 1993. The minimum follow up period was 24 months and the median follow-up was 35 months Radiation therapy had been given by 6 MV linear accelerator by parallel opposing or four-box portals. Whole pelvis was treated up to 5040 cGy in most cases. Systemic chemotherapy had been given in 94$\%$ of the patients, mostly with 5-FU/ACNU regimen. Assessment for the overall and disease-free survival rates were done by life-table method and prognostic factors by Log-Rank tests. Results : Five-year overall survival, disease-free survival were 58.8$\%$ and 57$\%$, respectively. Two-year local control rate was 76.6$\%$. Stage according to Modified Astler-Coller (MAC) system, over 4 positive lymph nodes, over 6weeks interval between definitive surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy and over 7 days of interruption during radiotherapy period were statistically significant, or borderline significant prognostic factors. Conclusion : The treatment results of patients with rectal cancers are comparable to those of other large institutes. The treatment results for the patients with bowel wall penetration and/or positive regional lymph nodes were still discouraging for their high local recurrence rate for the patients with MAC 'c' stage diseases and high distant metastases rate even for the patients with node-negative diseases. Maybe more effective regimen of chemotherapy would be needed with proper route and schedule. To maximize postoperative adjuvant treatment. radiotherapy should be started at least within 6 weeks after surgery and preferably as soon as wound healing is completed. Interruption of treatment during radiotherapy course affects disease-free survival badly, especially if exceeds 7 days. So, the total treatment period trout definitive surgery to the completion of radiotherapy should be kept as minimal as possiable.

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Combined Chemoradiotherapy vs Radiotherapy Alone for Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck (국소적으로 진행된 두경부 편평상피세포종양의 방사선- 항암화학 병용요법과 방사선단독치료의 비교)

  • Jeong, Hyeon-Ju;Suh, Hyun-Suk;Kim, Chul-Soo;Kim, Re-Hwe;Kim, Sung-Rok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 1996
  • Purpose: The traditional approach with surgery and/or radiotherapy(RT) for advanced head and neck cancer Provides anticipated cure rates of $10-65\%$ depending on stages and sites. Recently, combined modality with chemotherapy have been extensively investigated in attempts to improve survival and local control. We retrospectively analysed our experience of 31 patients with advanced head and neck cancer. Materials and Methods : November 1983 to October 1994. 31 Patients with Stage III and IV squamous cell head and neck cancer were treated with RT. Sixteen patients were treated with RT alone, and IS patients were treated with combined RT plus chemotherapy. All patients were treated with 4-MV LINAC and radiation dose ranged from 5000 cGy to 7760 cGy (median 7010 cGy). In combined group, 7 patients were treated with cisplatin plus 5-FU 2 patients were treated with methotrexate plus leucovorin plus 5-FU plus cisplatin or carboplatin, and 6 patients were treated with cisplatin as a radiosensitizer. Results : Median follow up period was 16 months (range 4-134 months). The major responses (CR+PR) were noted in 10 patient ($66.6\%$) of the RT alone group and 14 patient ($93.3\%$) of the chemoradiation group. There was no statistical difference in CR rate between the two groups The overall survival rates at 5 years were $23.4\%$ in the radiation alone group, $23.5\%$ in the chemoradiation group Disease-free survival rates at 3 years were $44.5\%$ in the radiation alone group, $40\%$ in the chemoradiation group. There was no statistical differences in overall survival rates and disease-free survival rates between the two groups. Local recurrences occurred in $71.5\%$ of the radiation alone group, $72.7\%$ of the chemoradiation group and distant metastasis occurred in $14.4\%$ of radiation alone group, $9.1\%$ of the chemoradiation group. The frequencies of complications were comparable in both groups except hematologic toxicity Conclusion : Total response rates in the combined chemotherapy and radiotherapy was relatively higher than radiotherapy alone. But our result failed to show any survival benefit of the combined chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The accrual of large number of patients and long term follow-un may be necessary to confirm the present result of combined chemotherapy and radiotherapy.

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Postoperstive Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer (국소 진행된 직장암에서 수술 후 화학방사선요법)

  • Chai, Gyu-Young;Kang, Ki-Mun;Choi, Sang-Gyeong
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.221-227
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : To evaluate the role of postoperative chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer, we retrospectively analyzed the treatment results of patients treated by curative surgical resection and postoperative chemoradiotherapy. Materials and Methods : From April 1989 through December 1998, 119 patients were treated with curative surgery and postoperative chemoradiotherapy for rectal carcinoma in Gyeongsang National University Hospital. Patient age ranged from 32 to 73 years, with a median age of 56 years. Low anterior resection was peformed in 59 patients, and abdominoperineal resection in 60. Forty-three patients were AJCC stage II and 76 were stage III. Radiation was delivered with 6 MV X rays using either AP-PA two fields, AP-PA both lateral four fields, or PA both lateral three fields. Total radiation dose ranged from 40 Gy to 56 Gy. In 73 patients, bolus infusions of 5-FU $(400\;mg/m^2)$ were given during the first and fourth weeks of radiotherapy. After completion of radiotherapy, an additional four to six cycles of 5-FU were given. Oral 5-FU (Furtulone) was given for nine months in 46 patients. Results : Forty $(33.7\%)$ of the 119 patients showed treatment failure. Local failure occurred in 16 $(13.5\%)$ patients, 1 $(2.3\%)$ of 43 stage II patients and 15 $(19.7\%)$ of 76 stage III patients. Distant failure occurred in 31 $(26.1\%)$ patients, among whom 5 $(11.6\%)$ were stage II and 26 $(34.2\%)$ were stage III. Five-year actuarial survival was $56.2\%$ overall, $71.1\%$ in stage II patients and $49.1\%$ in stage III patients (p=0.0008). Five-year disease free survival was $53.3\%$ overall, $68.1\%$ in stage II and $45.8\%$ in stage III (p=0.0006). Multivariate analysis showed that T stage and N stage were significant prognostic factors for five year survival, and that T stage, N stage, and preoperative CEA value were significant prognostic factors for five year disease free survival. Bowel complication occurred in 22 patients, and was treated surgically in 15 $(12.6\%)$, and conservatively in 7 $(5.9\%)$. Conclusion : Postoperative chemoradiotherapy was confirmed to be an effective modality for local control of rectal cancer, but the distant failure rate remained high. More effective modalities should be investigated to lower the distant failure rate.