• Title/Summary/Keyword: 선거 결과

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RDD Sample versus Directory - Based Sample for Telephone Surveys: The Case of 2007 Presidential Election Forecasting in Korea (RDD 표본 대 전화번호부 표본: 2007년 대통령 선거 예측사례)

  • Huh, Myung-Hoe;Kim, Young-Won
    • Survey Research
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.55-69
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    • 2008
  • In most telephone surveys in Korea, telephone numbers are selected from the directories. Inevitably, such samples may lack representativeness due to poor coverage rate. To resolve the problem, Kang et al.(2008) implemented RDD(random digit dialing) method for nationwide sampling in Korea. The aim of this study is to compare an RDD sample with a traditional telephone quota sample that were collected independently by two survey institutes commissioned by the KBS-MBC consortium for the 2007 Presidential Election of Korea.

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Format Study of 2002 Televised Presidential Debates Sponsored by Presidential Debate Committee (대통령후보 TV합동토론 형식(Format) 비교 연구: 대통령선거방송토론위원회 주최 합동토론회를 중심으로)

  • Song, Jong-Gil
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.22
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    • pp.107-130
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    • 2003
  • This study evaluated the debate formats adopted in the 2002 Televised Presidential Debates. Presidential Debate Committee have sponsored Televised Presidential Debates during the official campaign period. However, it is not easy task for the Committee to coordinate each party's different interests, such as voters, candidates, and broadcasters. Presidential candidates tries to use the debates as one of their campaign strategies. Broadcasters argued limitations in programming and production process. Regardless of the obstacles, voters expect that the committee makes ideal debate formats. The committee adopted two new forms in the 2002 Debates. The committee allowed direct exchange between candidates as well as advance question preparation by candidate. The committee intends that candidates focus on discussing policy issues. Some studies found that the debate format to allow direct exchange between candidates makes candidates focus on image issues rather than policy issues. The findings of this study are similar to the previous studies'. The new debate formats adopted in 2002 televised presidential debates did not guarantee policy issue oriented discussion. The committee or scholars should evaluate the debate formats used in the presidential debates in order to establish ideal debate formats that gives important information for votes to determine their choice. It is necessary to systematically evaluate the debate formats of former presidential campaign for developing right debate formats.

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Systematic Bias of Telephone Surveys: Meta Analysis of 2007 Presidential Election Polls (전화조사의 체계적 편향 - 2007년 대통령선거 여론조사들에 대한 메타분석 -)

  • Kim, Se-Yong;Huh, Myung-Hoe
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.375-385
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    • 2009
  • For 2007 Korea presidential election, most polls by telephone surveys indicated Lee Myung-Bak led the second runner-up Jung Dong-Young by certain margin. The margin between two candidates can be estimated accurately by averaging individual poll results, provided there exists no systematic bias in telephone surveys. Most Korean telephone surveys via telephone directory are based on quota samples, with the region, the gender and the age-band as quota variables. Thus the surveys may result in certain systematic bias due to unbalanced factors inherent in quota sampling. The aim of this study is to answer the following questions by the analytic methods adopted in Huh et al. (2004): Question 1. Wasn't there systematic bias in estimates of support rates. Question 2. If yes, what was the source of the bias? To answer the questions, we collected eighteen surveys administered during the election campaign period and applied the iterated proportional weighting (the rim weighting) to the last eleven surveys to obtain the balance in five factors - region, gender, age, occupation and education level. We found that the support rate of Lee Myung-Bak was over-estimated consistently by 1.4%P and that of Jung Dong-Young was underestimated by 0.6%P, resulting in the over-estimation of the margin by 2.0%P. By investigating the Lee Myung-Bak bias with logistic regression models, we conclude that it originated from the under-representation of less educated class and/or the over-representation of house wives in telephone samples.

A Study on the Meta Analysis of Korean Digital Politics (디지털정치 실증연구에 관한 메타분석)

  • Park, Young-Min
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.201-212
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    • 2011
  • This study is to carry out meta-analysis on doctoral dissertations which had been written after 2004 when the empirical analysis about digital politics had begun. This study aims to identify tendency of recent analysis. For this purpose, it classifies the research trends of digital politics as political participation, political process, political advertising and election campaigns, and examines the researcher's definition, framework of empirical analysis, and all the results. Moreover, the study systematically summarizes the research model, analysis unit, concept and its components in order to ensure availablity so that the information could be available for the further research.

The Effect of the Fake News Related to the Electronic Voting System each News Service on News Users' Attitude of Using System, Intention to Participate through System and Reliability of News Services (뉴스서비스별 전자투표시스템 관련 가짜뉴스가 뉴스 이용자의 이용 태도, 선거 참여 의도, 뉴스서비스 신뢰도에 미치는 영향)

  • Jin, So-Yeon;Lee, Ji-Eun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.105-118
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    • 2021
  • This study pays attention to the fact that the fake news is attracting attention because it causes various social problems. To find out these fake news' influence, the study conducted the experiment to examine that the fake news related to the electronic voting system affects on the news users' attitude of using the system, intention to participate in the election through the system and reliability of news services. The results have shown that the fake news framed with negative contents reduced users' attitude of using the system and intention of participation in the election. Especially, as a result of examining the difference in the fake news' influence according to each news services, in the case that users recognized that the news was fake after exposing to the general internet news, the attitude of using the system and the intention of participation in the election have reduced and recovered again. However, users who exposed to Naver, Facebook believed the negative content of the fake news more strongly. Through these results, this study empirically confirmed that the fake news has a tendency to exert influence on users' cognitive dimension and to reinforce awareness in a direction consistent with the initial exposure information.

Gerrymandering and Malapportionment in Redistricting for National Assembly Election by Politics of Regional Cleavage Interference (지역균열정치와 국회의원선거구 획정의 게리맨더링과 투표 등가치성 훼손)

  • Lee, Chung Sup
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.718-734
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    • 2012
  • This study investigates the interference of politics of regional cleavage in the redistricting for national assembly election and its effects on gerrymandering and malapportionment. Since the Constitutional Assembly election, the argument about gerrymandering and malapportionment continues and the single-member election district with simple plurality system in Korea has aggravated the problem of cleavage and unfairness. Especially, redistrictings for national assembly election in 2008 and 2012 are suspected of gerrymandering by Saenuri party and Democratic United party. Yeongnam region where Saenuri party is dominant and Honam region where Democratic United party is, are over-represented compared to population, while the districts in Gyeonggi-do are under-represented and the need for increasing the number of districts has been ignored. These redistrictings might come from unfair and collusive interference of politics of regional cleavage, and consequently malapportionment has been brought about.

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Change of Approval Rating of Candidates for 19th General Election affected by LBSNS Application based on Object Identification, ePosition (객체식별아이디 이포지션 기반의 LBSNS 앱이 19대 총선 후보 지지율의 변화에 미친 영향)

  • Lee, Sang-Zee;Jang, Dong-Heyok;Park, Sung-Woon;Cho, Won-Hee;Yi, Gi-Chul
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2013
  • During 19th general election the customized LBSNS(Location Based SNS) application for some candidates of the National Assembly planned and developed based on the object identification, ePosition, comprising the candidate's name have been applied for an election campaign. The approval rating change before and after 19th election campaign period for each candidate was quantitatively studied how it would be affected by the candidate custom LBSNS application. Only 3 out of 24 candidates in 6 local electorates in the Daejon Metropolitan City have adopted the customized LBSNS application and the rest 21 candidates have not, whose approval rating change before and after an election campaign has been analyzed comparatively candidate by candidate. The approval rating for 3 candidates adopting LBSNS application went up by 12.6%, 11.4%, 11.2% respectively, but those for the rest 21 candidates all changed within 3%.

Impact of Panel Attrition and Conditioning : The Case of KBS-MBMR's 2007 Korean Presidential Election Panel Survey (패널 이탈과 조건화의 영향: KBS-MBMR의 2007년 대통령 선거 패널조사 사례)

  • Huh, Myung-Hoe;Kim, Jee-Yeon;Lee, Ryang-Hoon
    • Survey Research
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.73-89
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    • 2009
  • Even though panel surveys are very useful in estimating the change between time points, they suffer from sample distortion as survey rounds proceed due to panel attrition and conditioning. This study is to report the statistical aspects of KBS-MBMR's five-rounds panel survey for the 2007 Presidential Election of Korea. Main findings are as follows. First, the attrition propensities were higher among women, among the young and the old aged, and among "None"/"Don't Know"/"Won't Say"(DK) respondents for the question asking preferred candidate. Second, there existed the conditioning effect that pushes the respondents to choose one candidate in hurry. Third. repeated measurements of the survey did not influence panel respondents on the choice of preferred candidate. if DK respondents are set. aside, and on the final voting intention of panel respondents.

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A Study of News Consonance on the Intermedia and Intramedia Agenda: Focused on the 2000 presidential campaign news coverage (매체간(Intermedia)과 매체내(Intramedia) 의제분석을 통한 뉴스획일화 연구: 2000년 미국 대통령 선거운동에 관한 뉴스보도를 중심으로)

  • Ku, Gyo-Tae
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.21
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    • pp.7-34
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    • 2003
  • The present study was designed to study the media consonance of campaign news coverage by comparing the issue salience provided by each medium. To explore the issue of consonance, this study examined the relationship of campaign agenda at intermedia and intramedia level. The data analysis revealed that there was general consensus in setting the campaign agenda at the intramedia and the intermedia level. On the other hand, the research focus indicated there was media difference in reporting the campaign agenda over time. In the perspective of agenda-setting function, the exposure to news media with greater uniformity might result in greater agenda-setting effects, since the media makes the issues salient by giving more media attention. After all, the uniformity of issue salience among news media might influence "what issues to think about," resulting in limiting the range of democratic discussion.

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The 4-River Restoration Project from the Viewpoint of 21st Century River Management (21세기 하천관리의 관점에서 본 '4대강 살리기' 사업)

  • Park, Soo-Taek
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.72-75
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    • 2010
  • 대한민국의 주요 하천인 한강, 금강, 낙동강, 영산강에서 2009년 11월부터 정부가 추진하는 4대강 살리기 사업(이후 4대강 사업)이 본격적으로 시작됐다. 정부는 기후변화 시대에 홍수와 가뭄에 대비하고 물 부족 시대에 수자원을 확보하며, 하천의 자연 생태계를 살리고 사람이 즐길 수 있는 레저 친수문화 공간을 조성하기 위해서라고 사업 목적을 내세운다. 환경시민단체와 상당수의 학자, 전문가들은 4대강 살리기 사업의 근간인 하도(강줄기)준설과 보 건설은 하천 수질 오염과 자연과 생태 환경 파괴로 끝날 뿐이라며 강하게 반대한다. 22조 2천억 원이라는 막대한 사업비가 들어가는 거대 사업의 시한을 정부는 이명박 대통령 임기 말년인 2012년으로 못 박고 있다. 2010년 지방선거와 2012년 차기 대통령 선거를 앞두고 전국 규모의 대형 토목 개발 사업을 이용한다는 의혹까지 제기되고 있다. 4대강 살리기 사업에 대한 비판과 결과에 대한 논란은 사업 기간은 물론 종료 이후에도 계속될 것으로 전망된다.