• Title/Summary/Keyword: 생존변수

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Survival analysis for contract maintenance period using life insurance data (생명보험자료를 이용한 계약유지기간에 대한 생존분석)

  • Yang, Dae Geon;Ha, Il Do;Cho, Geon Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.771-783
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    • 2018
  • The life insurance industry is interested in various factors that influence the long-term extensions of insurance contracts such as the necessity for the advisors' long-term management of consumers, product consulting, and improvement of the investment aspects. This paper investigates important factors leading to a long-term contract that forms an important part of the life insurance industry in Korea. For this purpose we used the data of contents (i.e., data from Jan 1, 2011 to Dec 31, 2016) of the contracts of xxx insurance company. In this paper, we present how to select important variables to influence the duration of the contract maintenance via a penalized Cox's proportional hazards (PH) modelling approach using insurance life data. As the result of analysis, we found that the selected important factors were the advisor's status, the reward type 2 (annuity insurance) and tendency 4 (safety-pursuing type).

Can 3-year Disease-free Survival be Substituted for 5-year Overall Survival in Curatively Resected Gastric Cancer? (치유 절제술을 받은 위암 환자에서의 3년 무병생존이 5년 전체생존을 대치할 수 있는가?)

  • Kwon, Sung-Joon;Kim, Hyoung-Ju;Kim, Mi-Kyung
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.5 no.3 s.19
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    • pp.174-179
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: The 5-year survival rate is the most useful parameter for evaluating the effect of management on most malignant tumors. Recurrence after a curative resection for gastric cancer occurs mostly within 3 years of the operation, which caused us to evaluate whether a 3-year disease-free survival (3DFS) can be substituted for a 5-year overall survival (5OS). Materials and Methods: We reviewed the medical records of 656 consecutive patients who had undergone a curative resection for gastric cancer To assess whether 3DFS represents 5OS, we used a simple linear regression with survival probability calculated by using the survival function. Results: Recurrence was found in 175 cases during the follow-up periods. The accumulative frequencies of recurrence at postoperative 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 46% (81 cases), 89% (156 cases), and 97% (170 cases), respectively. The correlation coefficient (r) and the coefficient of determination $(r^2)$ between 3DFS and 5OS were 0.87 and 0.76, respectively, and the regression equation was $5OS=0.18+(0.80{\times}3DFS)$. The r and $R^2$ according to the type of recurrence were 0.89 and 0.80 in peritoneal seeding, 0.88 and 0.78 in hematogeneous metastasis, and 0.86 and 0.73 in local recurrence, respectively. The r (0.77) and $r^2$ (0.60) were relatively lower in low stages (stage I and II) compared to r (0.88) and $r^2(0.77)$ in high stages (stage III and IV). Conclusion: The 3DFS is an excellent predictor of 5OS. Therefore, if we use the former as the treatment evaluating method, 2-year time reduction in assessing and reporting treatment results is expected.

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Prognostic Value of the Expression of p53 and bcl-2 in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (비소세포폐암에서 p53과 bcl-2의 발현이 예후에 미치는 영향)

  • Yang, Seok-Chul;Yoon, Ho-Joo;Shin, Dong-Ho;Park, Sung-Soo;Lee, Jung-Hee;Keum, Joo-Seob;Kong, Gu;Lee, Jung-Dal
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.962-974
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    • 1998
  • Background: Alteration of p53 tumor suppressor genes is most frequently identified in human neoplasms, including lung carcinoma. It is well known that bcl-2 oncoprotein protects cells from apoptosis. Recent studies have demonstrated that bcl-2 expression is associated with favorable prognosis for patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma. However, the precise biologic role of bcl-2 in the development of these tumors is still obscure. p53 and bcl-2 have important regulatory influence in the apoptotic pathway and thus their relationship is of interest in tumorigenesis, especially lung cancer. Purpose: The author investigated to know the prognostic significance of the expression of p53 and bcl-2 in radically resected non-small cell lung cancer. Method: 84 cases of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded blocks from resected primary non-small cell lung cancer from 1980 to 1994 at Hanyang University Hospital were available for both clinical follow-up and immunohistochemical staining using monoclonal antibodies for p53 and bcl-2. Results : The histologic classification of the tumor was based on WHO criteria., and the specimens included 45 squamous cell carcinomas(53.6%), 28 adeonocarcinomas(33.3%) and 11 large cell carcinomas(13.1 %). p53 immunoreactivity was noted in 47 cases of 84 cases(56.0%). bcl-2 immunoreactivity was noted in 15 cases of 84 cases(17.9%). The mean survival duration was $64.23{\pm}10.73$ months in bcl-2 positive group and $35.28{\pm}4$. 39 months in bcl-2 negative group. The bcl-2 expression was significantly correlated with survival in radically resected non-small cell lung cancer patients(p=0.03). The mean survival duration was $34.71{\pm}6.12$ months in p53 positive group and $45.35{\pm}6.30$ months in p53 negative group(p=0.21). The p53 expression was not predictive for survival. There was no correlation between combination of the different status of p53 and bcl-2 expression in our study. Conclusions : The interaction and the regulation of new biologic markers, such as those involved in the apoptotic pathway, are complex. bcl-2 overexpression is a good prognostic factor in non-small cell lung cancer and p53 expression is not significantly associated with the prognostic factor in non-small cell lung cancer.

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The Effect on Network Diversity and Network Strength of Social Enterprise Member with the Developmental Model (사회적 기업구성원의 네트워크 다양성과 네트워크 강도가 기업발전모형에 미치는 영향)

  • Chung, Dae-Yong;Kim, Min-Sug
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.3772-3778
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    • 2010
  • The leaders such as The Robert Foundation of the U.S., Social Firms U.K., EMES European Research Network worldwide are groping for the survival strategies of social enterprises and of their developmental methods with the utilization of social capital. Along with the way the world economy goes on, this study is first of all to empirically analyze how the diversity and strength of network as independent variables work with the studies of the survival of enterprises of Granovetter Mark, Burt Ronald, Coleman James, Peter Witt, Andreas Schroeter, Christin Merz, Helen Haugh, mainly concerned with the increase in employment, the increment in sales, delegation of authorization as dependent variables and secondly it is to present a theoretical possibility of optimizing the development of social enterprises. The object of this study consists of 25 companies recommended by experts out of the current national 295 social enterprises in 2009 through the analysis of sources of SPSS 12.0, appropriateness, reliability, interrelation, etc; besides, hypotheses are proved by multiple regression analysis. A result of the investigation indicates that there is the necessity of network in all the processes of the survival of enterprises, the growth in employment, the increase in sales, delegation of authorization; especially, it suggests that it is necessary to manage, maintain and develop primary factors relating to a variety of networks to improve sales, and relating to the intensity of network for the survival of corporations. At last, I think that this study could be a help to the strategies of utilizing social capital in order for many companies or nonprofit social organizations in Korea to develop into constant enterprises.

Analysis of Multiple Life Insurance using Copula and Common Shock (코퓰라와 커먼-쇽을 이용한 연생상품의 분석)

  • Kim, Doyoung;Lee, Issac;Lee, Hangsuck
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.7
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    • pp.1097-1114
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    • 2014
  • Multiple-life policies pay a benefit on the first death or the last death among the group of lives. In practice, the future lifetime random variable of policy holders has been considered to be independent, but it is more rational to take into account the correlations among the policy holders. In this paper, the Gaussian copula is applied to re ect the correlations among policy holders and then to diversify the common shock of the multiple life policies which follows an exponential distribution. Five case studies demonstrate its usefulness of using copula in calculating the premiums of the multiple-life policies including the common shock.

Analysis of Industrial Accidents Data with Survival Model (생존분석 모형을 활용한 산업재해 데이터의 분석)

  • Baik, Jaiwook
    • Industry Promotion Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the industrial accidents data with survival model. EDA approach is used to explore the relationship between two variables and among three variables for the past 10 years of industrial accidents data. Survival models are also tried. Survival curve drops more rapidly for the business with fewer employees as time goes by. Industrial accidents occur more often as the total number of industrial accidents gets larger and as the number of employees gets smaller. Agriculture, fishing and forestry have a higher level of industrial accidents than construction while service industry and 'transportation·storage and telecommunication' have a fewer number of industrial accidents than construction. Korea Safety and Health Agency's and Ministry of Employment and Labor's involvement were not effective but Civilian's was. Recurrent event data analysis reveals all most the same result as for non-recurrent data analysis.

The Impacts of ERG Factors on Organizational Attachment: Focused on the Mediating Effects Job Fit (ERG요인이 조직애착에 미치는 영향: 직무적합성의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Jang, Jun-ho;Qing, Cheng-lin;Jin, Xiu
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.23-28
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    • 2021
  • This research emphasized that the importance of ERG elements such as existence needs, relatedness needs, and growth needs. Moreover, it focused on verifying the effects of these three elements on organizational attachment through person job fit. In addition, the mediating role of person job fit was clearly identified as a key variable that can lead to organizational attachment. To verify this, an empirical analysis was conducted on workers engaged in state-owned company, service, manufacturing, and distribution industries in Korea. Through empirical analysis, it was found that all three elements of ERG improve person job fit. Furthermore, person job fit was found to increase the level of organizational attachment. Thus, it was found that person job fit played a partial mediating role in the relationship between the three elements of ERG and organizational attachment. This research also identified which element has the strongest influence on person job fit. Through these results, practical implications were presented and future research directions were discussed.

The effects of adjuvant therapy and prognostic factors in completely resected stage IIIa non-small cell lung cancer (비소세포 폐암의 근치적 절제술 후 예후 인자 분석 및 IIIa 병기에서의 보조 요법의 효과에 대한 연구)

  • Cho, Se Haeng;Chung, Kyung Young;Kim, Joo Hang;Kim, Byung Soo;Chang, Joon;Kim, Sung Kyu;Lee, Won Young
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.709-719
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    • 1996
  • Background: Surgical resection is the only way to cure non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC) and the prognosis of NSCLC in patients who undergo a complete resection is largely influenced by the pathologic stage. After surgical resection, recurrences in distant sites is more common than local recurrences. An effective postoperative adjuvant therapy which can prevent recurrences is necessary to improve long tenn survival Although chemotherapy and radiotherapy are still the mainstay in adjuvant therapy, the benefits of such therapies are still controversial. We initiated this retrospective study to evaluate the effects of adjuvant therapies and analyze the prognostic factors for survival after curative resection. Method: From 1990 to 1995, curative resection was perfomled in 282 NSCLC patients with stage I, II, IIIa, Survival analysis of 282 patients was perfonned by Kaplan-Meier method. The prognostic factors, affecting survival of patients were analyzed by Cox regression model. Results: Squamous cell carcinoma was present in 166 patients(59%) ; adenocarcinoma in 86 pmients(30%) ; adenosquamous carcinoma in II parients(3.9%); and large cell undifferentiated carcinoma in 19 patients(7.1%). By TNM staging system, 93 patients were in stage I; 58 patients in stage II ; and 131 patients in stage rna. There were 139 postoperative recurrences which include 28 local and 111 distant failures(20.1% vs 79.9%). The five year survival rate was 50.1% in stage I ; 31.3% in stage II ; and 24.1% in stage IIIa(p <0.0001). The median survival duration was 55 months in stage I ; 27 months in stage II ; and 16 months in stage rna. Among 131 patients with stage rna, the median survival duration was 19 months for 81 patients who received postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy only or cherne-radiotherapy and 14 months for the other 50 patients who received surgery only or surgery with adjuvant radiotherapy(p=0.2982). Among 131 patients with stage IIIa, the median disease free survival duration was 16 months for 21 patients who received postop. adjuvant chemotherapy only and 4 months for 11 patients who received surgery only(p=0.0494). In 131 patients with stage IIIa, 92 cases were in N2 stage. The five year survival rate of the 92 patients with N2 was 25% and their median survival duration was 15 months. The median survival duration in patients with N2 stage was 18 months for those 62 patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy and 14 months for the other 30 patients who did not(p=0.3988). The median survival duration was 16 months for those 66 patients who received irradiation and 14 months for the other 26 patients who did not(p=0.6588). We performed multivariate analysis to identify the factors affecting prognosis after complete surgical resection, using the Cox multiple regression model. Only age(p=0.0093) and the pathologic stage(p<0.0001) were significam prognostic indicators. Conclusion: The age and pathologic stage of the NSCLC parients are the significant prognostic factors in our study. Disease free survival duration was prolonged with statistical significance in patients who received postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy but overall survival duration was not affected according to adjuvant therapy after surgical resection.

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Factors affecting the survival of implants: a long-term retrospective study (임플란트의 생존에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대한 장기간의 후향적 연구)

  • Song, Susanna;Lee, Jae-Kwan;Um, Heung-Sik;Chang, Beom-Seok
    • Journal of Dental Rehabilitation and Applied Science
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.10-19
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the long-term survival of implants retrospectively and determine the risk factors associated with implant failure. Materials and Methods: Of all implants that were placed at the Department of Periodontology of the Dental Hospital of Gangneung-Wonju National University from January 1998 to December 2012, 2265 implants that were followed up until June 2013 were included in this study. Data were collected from clinical and radiographic examinations from previous visits. The information gathered included gender, age, smoking status, implant diameter, implant length, surface of implant, location of implant within the dental arch, surgical techniques and existence of complications. Results: The survival rate before loading was 98.9%. The cumulative survival rate after 5 years of loading was 97.2%, and after 15 years of loading was 95.2%. In a simple logistic regression analysis, gender (P = 0.016), smoking status (P = 0.001), location of implant (P = 0.020) and existence of complications (P = 0.002) were statistically associated with implant failure and included in the multiple regression analysis. As a result of multiple logistic regression analysis, the variables statistically associated with implant failure (P < 0.05) were smoking status (P = 0.049) and existence of complications (P < 0.001). Conclusion: The cumulative survival rate of dental implants after 15 years of loading was 95.2% and that the variables statistically associated with implant failure were smoking status and existence of complications.

Prognostic Value of Serum Ferritin in Terminally Ill Cancer Patients (말기암환자에서 예후인자로서 혈청 Ferritin의 유용성)

  • Lee, Soo Hee;Choi, Youn Seon;Hwang, In Cheol;Yeom, Chang Hwan;Lee, June Yeong
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: Predicting life expectancy of terminally ill cancer patients is very important. In many studies, ferritin is detected at higher levels in the sera of cancer patients, and higher ferritin level correlates with aggressiveness of disease and poor outcomes of patients. This study evaluated a prognostic role of serum ferritin levels in terminally ill cancer patients. Methods: This study enrolled 65 terminally ill cancer patients from March through June 2012. We assessed routine laboratory findings including serum ferritin levels as well as demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. To examine the association between serum ferritin levels and patient's characteristics, we used Spearman's correlation analysis, Wilcoxon's rank sum test or Kruskal-Wallis test, as appropriately. For multivariate analysis, Cox's proportional hazard regression model was used to evaluate significance of serum ferritin levels as a prognostic factor. Results: A negative correlation between serum ferritin levels and survival time was found. After adjusting for sex, age, performance status, creatinine levels and white blood cell counts, serum ferritin levels were significantly associated with survival time. Conclusion: Even at the very end of life of terminal cancer patients, serum ferritin levels were an independent prognostic factor for survival.