• Title/Summary/Keyword: 산사태 예측 모델

Search Result 94, Processing Time 0.036 seconds

Construction of NCAM-LAMP Precipitation and Soil Moisture Database to Support Landslide Prediction (산사태 예측을 위한 NCAM-LAMP 강수 및 토양수분 DB 구축)

  • So, Yun-Yeong;Lee, Su-Jung;Choi, Sung-Won;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.152-163
    • /
    • 2020
  • The present study introduces a procedure to prepare and manage a high-resolution rainfall and soil moisture (SM) database in the LAMP prediction system, especially for landslide researchers. The procedure also includes converting the data into spatial resolution suitable for their interest regions following proper map projection methods. The LAMP model precipitation and SM data are quantitatively and qualitatively evaluated to identify the model prediction characteristics using the ERA5 reanalysis precipitation and observed 10m depth SM data. A detailed process of converting LAMP Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) output data for 10m horizontal resolution is described in a step-wise manner, providing technical convenience for users to easily convert NetCDF data from the WRF model into TIF data in ArcGIS. The converted data can be viewed and downloaded via the LAMP website (http://df.ncam.kr/lamp/index.do) of the National Center for AgroMeteorology. The constructed database will contribute to monitoring and prediction of landslide risk prior to landslide response steps and should be data quality controlled by more observation data.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Deep Neural Network and Convolutional Neural Network (Deep Neural Network와 Convolutional Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 취약성 매핑)

  • Gong, Sung-Hyun;Baek, Won-Kyung;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.38 no.6_2
    • /
    • pp.1723-1735
    • /
    • 2022
  • Landslides are one of the most prevalent natural disasters, threating both humans and property. Also landslides can cause damage at the national level, so effective prediction and prevention are essential. Research to produce a landslide susceptibility map with high accuracy is steadily being conducted, and various models have been applied to landslide susceptibility analysis. Pixel-based machine learning models such as frequency ratio models, logistic regression models, ensembles models, and Artificial Neural Networks have been mainly applied. Recent studies have shown that the kernel-based convolutional neural network (CNN) technique is effective and that the spatial characteristics of input data have a significant effect on the accuracy of landslide susceptibility mapping. For this reason, the purpose of this study is to analyze landslide vulnerability using a pixel-based deep neural network model and a patch-based convolutional neural network model. The research area was set up in Gangwon-do, including Inje, Gangneung, and Pyeongchang, where landslides occurred frequently and damaged. Landslide-related factors include slope, curvature, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), topographic position index (TPI), timber diameter, timber age, lithology, land use, soil depth, soil parent material, lineament density, fault density, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI) were used. Landslide-related factors were built into a spatial database through data preprocessing, and landslide susceptibility map was predicted using deep neural network (DNN) and CNN models. The model and landslide susceptibility map were verified through average precision (AP) and root mean square errors (RMSE), and as a result of the verification, the patch-based CNN model showed 3.4% improved performance compared to the pixel-based DNN model. The results of this study can be used to predict landslides and are expected to serve as a scientific basis for establishing land use policies and landslide management policies.

A Study on Analysis of Landslide Disaster Area using Cellular Automata: An Application to Umyeonsan, Seocho-Gu, Seoul, Korea (셀룰러 오토마타를 이용한 산사태 재난지역 분석에 관한 연구 - 서울특별시 서초구 우면산을 대상으로-)

  • Yoon, Dong-Hyeon;Koh, Jun-Hwan
    • Spatial Information Research
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.9-18
    • /
    • 2012
  • South Korea has many landslides caused by heavy rains during summer time recently and the landslides continue to cause damages in many places. These landslides occur repeatedly each year, and the frequency of landslides is expected to increase in the coming future due to dramatic global climate change. In Korea, 81.5% of the population is living in urban areas and about 1,055 million people are living in Seoul. In 2011, the landslide that occurred in Seocho-dong killed 18 people and about 9% of Seoul's area is under the same land conditions as Seocho-dong. Even the size of landslide occurred in a city is small, but it is more likely to cause a big disaster because of a greater population density in the city. So far, the effort has been made to identify landslide vulnerability and causes, but now, the new dem and arises for the prediction study about the areal extent of disaster area in case of landslides. In this study, the diffusion model of the landslide disaster area was established based on Cellular Automata(CA) to analyze the physical diffusion forms of landslide. This study compared the accuracy with the Seocho-dong landslide case, which occurred in July 2011, applying the SCIDDICA model and the CAESAR model. The SCIDDICA model involves the following variables, such as the movement rules and the topographical obstacles, and the CAESAR model is also applied to this process to simulate the changes of deposition and erosion.

A study on the Analysis of Land Slide Using Aerial Photogrammetry (항공사진측량에 의한 산사태의 분석에 관한 연구)

  • 강인준
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.9 no.2
    • /
    • pp.119-125
    • /
    • 1991
  • On hill slope, apartment, housing, and school construction may be many potential problems and damagemay be involved in construction. Model sites for landslides are two apartment and high school areas in Pusan, 1991. This paper is described the landslides forecasting in photointerpretation of aerial photographs.

  • PDF

Prediction of Groundwater Levels in Hillside Slopes Using the Autoregressive Model (AR 모델을 이용한 산사면에서의 지하수위 예측)

  • Lee, In-Mo;Park, Gyeong-Ho;Im, Chung-Mo
    • Geotechnical Engineering
    • /
    • v.9 no.3
    • /
    • pp.67-76
    • /
    • 1993
  • Korea being composed of a number of mountains has been damaged and destroyed in lives and properties by the occurrence of many landslides during the wet seasons. Therefore, it is necessary to study the forecast system and risk analysis for the occurrence of landslides : the rise of groundwater levels due to rainfall is the main cause of landslides. In this paper, the autoregressive models are used to predict the grondwater levls using cases of both time invariant and time -varing autoregressive coefficients. In the former case, AR(1), AR(2), and AR(3) models are selected and their single-valued parameters are estimated to fit them to the observed groundwater level series. In the latter case, modified AR(1) and typical AR(2) models are used as process model and a discrete Kalman Filtering technique is utilized to estimate the parameters which are themselves a function of time. The results show that the real time forecast system using the time-varying autoregressive coefficinets as well as time -invariant AR model is good to predict the groundwater level in hillside slopes and we might get better result if we use the time-hourly rainfall intensity as well as the observed groundwater level.

  • PDF

Numerical Simulations of Landslide Disaster based on UAV Photogrammetry at Gokseong Areas (무인 항공사진측량 정보를 기반으로 한 곡성지역 산사태 수치해석)

  • Choi, Jae Hee;Kim, Nam Gyun;Jun, Byong Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2021.06a
    • /
    • pp.26-26
    • /
    • 2021
  • 본 연구에서는 2020년 산사태가 발생한 곡성지역을 대상으로 무인항공기 사진측량을 통하여 산사태 지역의 범위와 변위를 조사하고 이를 기반으로 산사태에 의한 피해범위를 LS-RAPID에서 분석하였다. LS-RAPID는 지진과 강우의 영향을 반영하는 산사태 시뮬레이션 모델이며, 산사태 운동시작여부를 평가하며 만일 발생 시 토사의 이동, 퇴적 범위, 토사층의 깊이를 예측할 수 있다. 산사태 시뮬레이션에서 중요한 변수 중의 하나는 지중의 활동층의 깊이와 분포이다. 재해현장에서 이런 자료를 신속하고 정량적으로 측정하기 위한 방법으로서 무인항공기를 이용한 측량을 실시하였다. 또한 산사태 토사의 이동과 퇴적을 검증하기 위한 자료도 획득하였다. 매개변수의 추정 시선행연구에서 제시된 값을 참고하여, 재해현장의 피해범위와 규모를 비교하여 매개변수를 추정하여 다른 연구사례에서 이용한 값들과 비교, 분석하였다. 또한, 시뮬레이션의 지형입력자료로서 무인항공기 사진 측량자료에서 생성된 DSM(Digital Surface Model)과 수지지도에서 생성한 DEM(Digital Elevation Model)을 적용한 경우, 시뮬레이션 결과에 영향을 비교, 분석하였다. 결과적으로 DEM보다 DSM을 적용하는 것이 퇴적범위가 크게 확대되지 않으며, 현장을 잘 반영한 결과가 얻어지는 것으로 평가되었다.

  • PDF

Evaluation of the Importance of Variables When Using a Random Forest Technique to Assess Landslide Damage: Focusing on Chungju Landslides (Random Forest를 활용한 산사태 피해 영향인자 평가: 충주시 산사태를 중심으로)

  • Jaeho Lee;Youjin Jeong;Junghae Choi
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
    • /
    • v.34 no.1
    • /
    • pp.51-65
    • /
    • 2024
  • Landslides are natural disasters that causes significant property damage worldwide every year. In Korea, damage due to landslides is increasing owing to the effects of climate change, and it is important to identify the factors that increase the prevalence of landslides in order to reduce the damage they cause. Therefore, this study used a random forest model to analyze the importance of 14 factors in influencing landslide damage in a specific area of Chungju, Chungcheongbuk-do province, Korea. The random forest model performed accurately with an AUC of 0.87 and the most-important factors were ranked in the order of aspect, slope, distance to valley, and elevation, suggesting that topographic factors such as aspect and slope more greatly influence landslide damage than geological or soil factors such as rock type and soil thickness. The results of this study are expected to provide a basis for mapping and predicting landslide damage, and for research focused on reducing landslide damage.

Analysis of Debris flow and Landslide Hazard Area using Weight of Evidence Technique in GIS (GIS의 Weight of Evidence 기법을 이용한 토석류 및 산사태 위험지역 분석)

  • Oh, Chae-Yeon;Jun, Kye-Won;Jun, Byong-Hee;Jang, Chang-Deok;Yoon, Ji-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2012.05a
    • /
    • pp.705-705
    • /
    • 2012
  • 우리나라는 최근 여름철 태풍 및 집중호우로 인해 많은 토석류 및 산사태가 발생하고 있다. 작년 7월에도 집중호우로 인해 서울시 우면산 일대와 강원도 춘천에 많은 인적 물적 피해를 입었다. 해마다 반복되는 토석류나 산사태의 위험을 감소시키기 위해서는 보다 정확한 위험지역 예측모델을 필요로 한다. 본 연구는 토석류 및 산사태의 위험과 취약지역을 예측하기 위하여 GIS기반의 Weight of Evidence 기법을 적용하여 위험지역을 분석 하고자 한다. 2006년 태풍 에위니아에 의해 많은 토석류 피해를 입은 강원도 인제군 가리산일대를 대상으로 하였으며 토석류 및 산사태 위치 자료는 2005년, 2006년 토석류 발생 전후 항공사진의 중첩분석을 토대로 발생 지역을 추출하였다. 토석류 및 산사태발생에 영향을 미치는 지형, 지질, 토양, 수문, 임상 등의 인자들은 GIS를 이용하여 DB로 구축하였다. 베이시안 확률기법(Bayesian Method)에 기반 하여 구축된 DB와 결합하여 각각의 인자의 가중 값 W+, W-를 계산하여 상관관계를 분석하고 Weight of Evidence 기법을 적용하여 위험지역을 정량적으로 평가하고자 한다.

  • PDF

Susceptibility Mapping of Umyeonsan Using Logistic Regression (LR) Model and Post-validation through Field Investigation (로지스틱 회귀 모델을 이용한 우면산 산사태 취약성도 제작 및 현장조사를 통한 사후검증)

  • Lee, Sunmin;Lee, Moung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.33 no.6_2
    • /
    • pp.1047-1060
    • /
    • 2017
  • In recent years, global warming has been continuing and abnormal weather phenomena are occurring frequently. Especially in the 21st century, the intensity and frequency of hydrological disasters are increasing due to the regional trend of water. Since the damage caused by disasters in urban areas is likely to be extreme, it is necessary to prepare a landslide susceptibility maps to predict and prepare the future damage. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed the landslide vulnerability using the logistic model and assessed the management plan after the landslide through the field survey. The landslide area was extracted from aerial photographs and interpretation of the field survey data at the time of the landslides by local government. Landslide-related factors were extracted topographical maps generated from aerial photographs and forest map. Logistic regression (LR) model has been used to identify areas where landslides are likely to occur in geographic information systems (GIS). A landslide susceptibility map was constructed by applying a LR model to a spatial database constructed through a total of 13 factors affecting landslides. The validation accuracy of 77.79% was derived by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the logistic model. In addition, a field investigation was performed to validate how landslides were managed after the landslide. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for urban governments for policy recommendations on urban landslide management.

Predicting Rainfall Infiltration-Groundwater Flow Based on GIS for a Landslide Analysis (산사태해석을 위한 GIS기반의 강우침투-지하수흐름 예측 기법 제안)

  • Kim, Jung-Hwan;Jeong, Sang-Seom;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.29 no.7
    • /
    • pp.75-89
    • /
    • 2013
  • This paper describes a GIS-based geohydrologic methodology, called YSGWF (YonSei GroundWater Flow) for predicting the rainfall infiltration-groundwater flow of slopes. This physical-based model was developed by the combination of modified Green-Ampt model that considers the unsaturated soil parameters and GIS-based raster model using Darcy's law that reflects the groundwater flow. In the model, raster data are used to simulate the three dimensional inclination of bedrock surface as actual topographic data, and the groundwater flow is governed by the slope. Also, soil profile is ideally subdivided into three zones, i.e., the wetting band zone, partially saturated zone, and fully saturated zone. In the wetting band and partially saturated zones the vertical infiltration of water (rainfall) from surface into ground is modeled. When the infiltrated water recharges into the fully saturated zone, the horizontal flow of groundwater is introduced. A comparison between the numerical calculation and real landslide data shows a reasonable agreement, which indicate that the model can be used to simulate real rainfall infiltration-groundwater flow.