• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.97-119
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• 1999

한국, 일본, 미국의 생명표, UN의 인구연감, WHO의 세계보건통계연감 등 공식통계를 활용하여, 한국 노인의 기대여명 및 사망원인별 사망력을 미국 및 일본과 비교하여 파악하고 있다. 한국 노인의 기대여명은 미일보다 빠른 속도로 증가하고 있는데, 1970년대 중반 이후는 미국처럼 여자보다 남자 노인의 기대여명 증가가 빠르면서, 남녀 노인의 기대여명 차가 감소하고 있다. 1997년 현재 65세시 기대여명은 남자 13.64세, 여자 17.26세로 남녀간 3.62세 차이를 보이며, 출생후 남자 72%, 여자 88%가 65세까지 생존한다. 노인의 주요 사인은 미일과 마찬가지로 순환기계질환 및 악성신생물인데, 순환기계질환중 한일은 뇌혈관질환이, 미국에서는 허혈성 심장질환이 노인의 주된 사망원인이 된다. 한국 남녀 노인의 연령층과 상관없이 허혈성 심장질환 및 폐렴 사망률은 미일보다 낮고, 뇌혈관질환, 고혈압성질환, 위암, 간암, 결핵, 당뇨병, 정신 및 행동장애, 간질환 및 교통사고 사망률은 미일보다 높다. 대부분의 사망원인에서 남자사망률이 여자사망률보다 높지만, 한국의 고혈압성 질환, 간암, 폐암 및 간질환에 의한 성별 사망률 격차가 미일보다 크며, 한미일 모두 75세 이상 노인의 정신 및 행동장애에 의한 여자 사망률보다 남자사망률보다 높게 나타난다. 사망원인 생명표 작성결과를 보면, 1997년 현재 한국의 65세 남성과 여성은 순환기계질환 제거시 각각 3.47년과 2.7년을, 악성신생물 제거시 각각 3.87년과 1.58세의 기대여명 증가를 예상할 수 있고, 일본에 비해 특정 사인을 제거시 상대적으로 많은 기대여명 증가를 기대할 수 있는 사망원인은 남자 노인의 간질환 및 교통사고를 들 수 있다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.1-32
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• 2003

An analysis on cause-specific mortality at the provincial level provides essential information for policy formulation and makes it possible to draw hypotheses regarding various diseases and causes of death. Although the mortality level and causes of death at the provincial level are determined by the multiple effects of socioeconomic, cultural, medical and ecological factors, this study primarily intends to examine similarities and differences of cause-specific mortality at the provincial level. Utilizing the registered death and the registered population as of 1998, the delayed death registration and unreported infant deaths were supplemented at the provincial level and age-standardized death rates and life tables were calculated. Regarding the mortality level due to all causes, major findings were as follow: (1) For both sexes as a whole, Seoul showed the lowest mortality level, and Jeonnam showed the highest mortality level; and (2) The differences of the mortality level among provinces were greater for males than females and for those less than 65 years than those 65 years and over. Regarding the cause-specific mortality level revealed in all indicators (cause-specific age-standardized mortality rates and the probability of dying at birth due to a specific cause for males, females, and both sexes combined respectively), the major findings were as follow: (1) The mortality level due to heart diseases was the highest in Busan and the lowest in Gangweon; (2) The mortality level due to liver diseases was the highest in Chonnam; and (3) The mortality level due to traffic accidents was the highest in Chungnam and the lowest in Inchon. As the mortality differentials at the provincial level are related to various factors, exploratory statistical analysis is attempted for the 25 explanatory variables including socioeconomic variables and 90 mortality variables. Mortality due to all causes are related to socioeconomic variables. Among cause-specific mortality, mortality due to liver diseases and traffic accidents is related to socioeconomic variables. Finally, the need to improve the quality of death certificate is discussed.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.27-51
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• 2006

In this paper, I have tested various kinds of methods for mortality projection and chose Lee-Carter method for projection of Korean mortality by age and sex. I reviewed the trends of life tables and life expectancies by age and sex from 2005 to 2050 projected by Lee-Carter method and found that the method was very applicable for Korean mortality projection. The differences between reported and estimated data for the period of 1971-2003 were small enough for both sexes and for all of the age groups. The projected life expectancies in 2051 were 82.73 years for males and 89.41 for females, and the differences decreased from 7.06 years in 2005 to 6.68 years. Because of the limitation of Korean infant mortality rate, I adopted the Japanese estimated IMR in 2050 as Korean object level in 2051. When the time series of IMR become long enough, we can use Korean IMR directly for the mortality projection. In addition, if we can estimate the changes of the main cause of death correctly in future, the mortality projection will be more correct and reliable. This will be available when we can produce a long series of life tables by cause of deaths.

• The Korean Chronic Disease News
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• no.318
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• pp.1-26
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• 2007

만성질환 관리분야 새 역사 창출/병원 등 필수공익사업장 지정/한국，2050년 세계최고 '노령국'/처방전 바코드 전면확대 '추진'/보호자 없는 병원 시범사업 실시/"암환자.사망자 매년 1%씩 증가"/만성 신장병환자 물.과일 다량섭취 금기/당뇨환자 인슐린 저항성 검사가 중요/인도네시아, 한국 수액사업 벤치마킹/"만성질환 신약개발에 초점"-LG생명과학, 5년간 4천억원 투입/만성질환 의약품생산 증가세 계속/미국 VGX제약, 오송단지에 2억달러 투자/엔케이바이오, 제주에 메티컬리조트 건립/평생건강관리기관 역할 수행/주민에게 도움 줄 수 있는 내실 있는 사업 전개/2005년 시도별 생명표 및 사망원인통계 결과

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.115-125
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• 2011

By use of a mortality forecasting model and a life table, forecasting the average life expectancy is an effective way to evaluate the future mortality level. There are differences between the actual values of average life expectancy at present and the forecasted values of average life expectancy in population projection 2006 from Statistics Korea. The reason is that the average life expectancy forecasts did not reflect the increasing speed of the actual ones. The main causes of the problem may be errors from judgment for projection, from choice, or use of a mortality forecasting model. In this paper, we focus on the choice of the mortality forecasting model to inspect this problem. Statistics Korea should take a mortality forecasting model with considerable investigation to proceed population projection 2011 without the errors observed in population projection 2006. We compare the five mortality forecasting models that are the LC(Lee and Carter) model used widely and its variants, and the HP8(Heligman and Pollard 8 parameter) model for handling death probability. We make average life expectancy forecasts by sex using modeling results from 2010 to 2030 and compare with that of the population projection 2006 during the same period. The average life expectancy from all five models are forecasted higher than that of the population projection 2006. Therefore, we show that the new average life expectancy forecasts are relatively suitable to the future mortality level.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.93-111
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• 2009

This study aims to find out changes of marital status and average marital life expectancy in Korea according to educational attainment. The study produces Korean marriage life table to accomplish the goal of study by introducing Wolfbein-Wool style working life table. Specific data utilized in this study are collected from the Population & Housing Census 2005 and Death Census 2005. Educational attainment is divided into four categories to accommodate to this study: elementary school course and lower, middle school course, high school course, college course and higher. Marriage rate, divorce rate, widowhood rate and death rate according to educational attainment are used as basicdata to analyze marital life expectancy. The results of this study are as follows: 1. As subjects age is younger, the average marital life expectancy of the highly educated tends to be higher. The disparity of average marital life expectancy according to educational attainment is apt to become narrow as subjects age is older. However, the gap between people who graduated from middle school and high school in older age group does not distinctive. 2. Males marital life expectancy is higher than females controlling for their educational attainment. 3. Males live with their wife for most of their lives but females live alone more than 10 years in every single educational categories. Based on the above, this study concludes that the average marital life expectancy is differentiated among age and sex according to educational attainment. Marital rate tends to be higher as educational level is higher. Divorce rate is lower in the highlyeducated group as their age is younger but this is apt to reverse as age is older. Furthermore, bereavement rate shows division according to educational attainmentsince one tends to marry other who has similar level of education with him or her. Therefore, educational attainment acts as an significant factor in Korean average life expectancy.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2012

An assumption for fractional ages should be made to obtain the net premium of the whole life insurance payable at the moment of death based on the life table. Most existing studies adopt the assumption of the uniform distribution(UDD) for the fractional ages. However, as seasonal changes may frequently lead to the deaths of elderly people, it is questionable whether the assumption of the uniform distribution is the most appropriate one for the entire age intervals. In this article, based on a real mortality data set, the appropriateness of UDD assumption for the entire age intervals is examined. And then we propose a more suitable model for fractional ages. We analyze the effect of UDD assumption through the net premium and the corresponding risk when the true distribution for the fractional ages is not uniform.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.80-104
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• 1998

In order to examine differential mortality, the life tables for the insured persons in national pension scheme were estimated by sex and types of coverage(the insured in workplaces vs. the insured in rural areas). The averages of 1994-1996 data are used for insured in workplaces, but 1996 data are used for insured in rural areas. Life expectancies at the age of 18 are 59.5 years and 67.2 years each for insured males and females and thus 7.7 years longer for females than males in workplaces. Sex difference in mortality reduces as age increases, and more rapidly at younger ages than old ages. For insured in rural areas, life expectancies at the age of 18 are 51.4 years and 61.1 years each for insured males and females and thus sex difference is 9.7 years. The greater sex difference in mortality in rural areas can be explained by sex selective migration. The difference of life expectancy between insured in workplaces and insured in rural areas is 8.1 years for males, and 6.1 years for females. Because rural-urban difference in educational attainment is greater for males than females, the greater difference in life expectancy is observed for males than females.

• The Korean Chronic Disease News
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• no.317
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• pp.1-18
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• 2007

경북 고령군 보건소 안순기 소장/“만성질환관리 건강투자 전략의 핵심”/‘보호자 없는 병원’시범사업/치매?뇌혈관질환?파킨슨병 등/“만성질환관리는 미래의료의 핵심”/한방보건 최우수기관‘익산보건소’/공공보건 EHR선진화 1577억 투입/전국비만학회연합회 비만 가이드라인 제시/맞춤의학 실현 KARE 프로젝트 착수/“신약개발.보건의료 연구투자 협력”/지난해 국내 의약품 생산 12조원 돌파/식욕억제제 관리 위반 의원?약국 적발/“well-dying”...사랑의 공동체 실현/가정호스피스.완화의료사업/신장내과 외래환자 58.4%가 40~60대/“천식 등 호흡기질환 예방관리 총력”/WHO 국제암연, 학술위원에 방영주 교수/30대 이상 70% 남성‘성관계’실패 경험/부실한 인적 자본, 미래 위한 건강투자 시급/2005년 시도별 생명표 및 사망원인통계 결과/유럽 고혈압학회 가이드라인 업데이트/

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.41-59
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• 2016

There have been continuous improvements in human life expectancy. Life expectancy is as a key factor in an aging population and can wreak severe damage on the financial integrity of pension providers. Hence, the projection of the accurate future mortality is a critical point to prevent possible losses to pension providers. However, improvements in future mortality would be overestimated by a typical mortality projection method using the Lee-Carter model since it underestimates the mortality index ${\kappa}_t$. This paper suggests a mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality versus the typical mortality projection of the Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the mortality index, ${\kappa}_t$. The paper shows how to indirectly estimate future t trend with the skewness of the mortality and compares the results under each estimation method of the mortality index, ${\kappa}_t$. The analysis of the results shows that mortality projection based on the skewness presents less improved mortality at an elderly ages than the original projection.