• Survey Research
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.1-26
• /
• 2011

Mortality for oldest-old age (aged 80 or over) in Korea has never been studied mainly due to lack of data leaving its quality aside. The rapid aging recently occurring in Korea, which no other country has never experienced, must introduce a drastic change in the structure of future population pyramid, requring a careful investigation on mortality level, pattern, and trend for the oldest-old age in Korea. For mortality trend, we need to extend the past mortality data, which has provided only an open-ended age interval 80 or 85 years and over, to age-specific mortality up to 115 years old. A prerequisite for such an extension is constructing a Korean standard mortality by which one can figure out the mortality level and pattern of the oldest-old age. A Korean standard mortality is proposed by applying one relational model and eleven functions from which we select best models for each sex in terms of three measures of fits and three consistencies of mortality. Then we extend the mortality of the open-ended age intervals by providing a method to avoid the longitudinal consistency of mortality.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
• /
• v.30 no.2
• /
• pp.127-135
• /
• 2005

Objectives: This study was conducted to investigate the trend of tuberculosis mortality rate by years and by areas. Methods: We calculated raw and age-adjusted mortality rate of tuberculosis from 1995 to 2002. The calculation was based on the data from resident registration data and death certification registration data gathered by 232 basic local authority. We used direct age standardization method for calculating age-adjusted mortality rate. We compared patterns of change in tuberculosis mortality rate of metropolitan areas, cities, and countryside by determinating the comparability of medels to explore linear relationship. We also analyzed the data of mortality rate between urban and rural area by comparing ANOVA and post-hoc by two periods: one from 1995 to 1998, and the other from 1999 to 2002. Results: In national mortality rate, both raw and age-adjusted mortality rate showed negative linear relationship. However, the graph become more horizontal: the slope line is close to zero. From 1995 to 1998, countryside showed significantly higher age-adjusted mortality rate than in metropolitan areas and cities. Ever after considering more horizontal graph in national mortality rate, the data shows that the countryside still have significantly higher mortality rate from 1999 to 2002. In model diagnostic checking, metropolitan areas and cities showed apparently linear pattern on the decrease of age-adjusted mortality rate. Pattern of mortality rate in countryside was decreased initially, but became flat. Conclusions: Further research is necessary to explore the characteristics of quality of tuberculosis control program in rural area. Different approach and strategies should be considered to decrease tuberculosis mortality rate in rural areas.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.31 no.4
• /
• pp.529-538
• /
• 2018

Tuberculosis causes high morbidity and mortality. However, Korea still has the highest tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality among OECD countries despite decreasing incidence and mortality due to the development of modern medicine. Korea has now implemented various policy projects to prevent and control tuberculosis. This study analyzes the effects of public-private mix (PPM) tuberculosis control program on treatment outcomes and identifies the factors that affecting the success of TB treatment. We analyzed 130,000 new tuberculosis patient cohort from 2012 to 2015 using data of tuberculosis patient reports managed by the Disease Control Headquarters. A cumulative incidence function (CIF) compared the cumulative treatment success rates for each factor. We compared the results of the analysis using two popular types of competition risk models (cause-specific Cox's proportional hazards model and subdistribution hazard model) that account for the main event of interest (treatment success) and competing events (death).

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.47 no.10
• /
• pp.879-889
• /
• 2014

In this study, to estimate loss of life considered flood characteristics using the relationship derived from analysis of historical dam break cases and the factors determining loss of life, the loss of life module applying in LIFESim and loss of life estimation by means of a mortality function were suggested and applicability for domestic dam watershed was examined. The flood characteristics, such as water depth, flow velocity and arrival time were simulated by FLDWAV model and flood risk area were predicted by using inundation depth. Based on this, the effects of warning, evacuation and shelter were considered to estimate the number of people exposed to the flood. In order to estimate fatality rates based on the exposed population, flood hazard zone is assigned to three different zones. Then, total fatality numbers were predicted after determining lethality or mortality function for each zone. In the future, the prediction of loss of life due to dam break floods will quantitatively evaluate flood risk and employ to establish flood mitigation measures at downstream applying probabilistic flood scenarios.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.33 no.4
• /
• pp.421-437
• /
• 2020

This paper implemented a method to predict the fertility rate, mortality rate, and international migration rate using the R program, which has been widely used in recent years, that calculates population projection by substituting the results into the Leslie matrix. In particular, the generalization log gamma model for the fertility rate by Kaneko (2003), LC-ER model for mortality rate by Li et al. (2013), and functional data model for international migration rates proposed by Ramsay and Silverman (2005) and Hyndman and Booth (2008), Hyndman et al. (2013) can be directly demonstrated with R programs. Demography and bayesPop have been introduced as a representative demographic package implemented in R; however, it can be analyzed only for data uploaded to Human Mortality Database (HMD) and Human Fertility Database (HFD) with data changes and modifications requiring application of other data. In particular, in Korea, there is a limitation in applying this package because it is provided only for short-term data in HMD. This paper introduces an R program that can reflect this situation and the different patterns of low fertility, aging, migration of domestic and foreigners in Korea, and derives a population projection for the year 2117.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.24 no.5
• /
• pp.769-789
• /
• 2011

The life table is a statistical model for life expectancy and reflects mortality experiences exposed to a particular group of people. The following three issues are prerequisite for constructing the life table : a selection of how to estimate the death probability from observed death rates, a graduation method to smooth irregularity of the death probabilities, and an extension method of the death probabilities for oldest-old ages. To construct the life table that is fittest to Korean mortality experiences, we examine five estimation methods such as Chiang's and Greville's for the death probability, three graduation techniques including Beer's and Greville's formulae, and twelve mathematical functions for the extension of death probabilities for oldest-old ages. We also propose a method to resolve the cross-over problem arising from construction the life table.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
• /
• v.4 no.3
• /
• pp.226-236
• /
• 1999

Growth, reproduction, mortality, and production of Laminaria japonica were experimentally studied at a cultivation ground on the coast of llkwang, where the largest amount of cultivated Laminaria has been produced in Korea. For this experiment, young sporophytes (0.33 cm in mean length) grown in the laboratory were transplanted at the depth of 3 m and field surveys on them were conducted twice a month from December, 1995 to August, 1996. Plants exhibited an annual life span; they were completely dead by August. Frond width, thickness, and wet weight showed similar pattern of seasonal growth and reached their maxima in July, but frond length showed no more increment after May. Maximum mean frond length and weight were 199.8 cm and 333.0 g wet wt., respectively. Overall meristematic growth in length and weight were 384.0 cm and 393.6 g wet wt., respectively. Absolute growth rates (AGR) which were calculated from the length of tissue developed from meristem varied seasonally; AGR of length and weight reached maxima in March (3.6 $cm{\cdot}d^{-1}$) and May (3.8 g wet $wt{\cdot}d^{-1}$), respectively. Absolute attrition rates gradually increased from February to July. Seasonal differences in growth and attrition rates appeared to be related to seawater temperature and nitrogen concentration in seawater. Reproductive sporophytes bearing sprorangium sorus began to occur from April, and the ratio of sorus area to blade area reached its maximum in July (0.034). Survival rate was exponentially decreased; more than 90% of plants decayed within 56 days after outplanting. After February, mortality was size-specific; mortality of smaller plants less than 30 cm in length were relatively higher. Maximum biomass occured in July (285.6 kg wet $wt{\cdot}m^{-2}$) and annual production was 758.7 kg wet $wt{\cdot}m^{-2}$.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.211-226
• /
• 2014

This paper discusses life expectancy differentials of beneficiaries of national pension old-age benefit and benefit-cost analysis in Korea. These results are useful indicators for the assessment of retirement income security of beneficiaries and old-age benefits. This paper analyzes benefit-cost ratio, internal rate of return and generation transfer amount, using life tables by lifetime incomes. The result of the actuarial analysis for male life expectancy is approximately 21.69 to 24.63 years. The result of the actuarial analysis for female life expectancy is approximately 27.63 to 29.81 years. The result of the actuarial analysis of low income level is that the benefit-cost ratio is lower approximately 2.68 to 4.83%, the internal rate of return lower approximately 0.00 to 0.74%, the generation transfer amount lower approximately 3.00 to 5.74%, than total income level. The result of the actuarial analysis of high income level is that the benefit-cost ratio is higher approximately 2.07 to 4.98%, the internal rate of return higher approximately 0.03 to 1.73%, the generation transfer amount higher approximately 2.53 to 9.68%, than the total income level. The results by income varies due to the effect of income redistribution and life expectancy on the national pension.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
• /
• v.51 no.4
• /
• pp.421-429
• /
• 2012

The developmental time period of Aphis gossypii was studied in laboratory (six constant temperatures from 15 to $30^{\circ}C$ with 50~60% RH, and a photoperiod of 14L:10D) and in a cucumber plastic house. The mortality of A. gossypii in the laboratory was high in the 2nd (20.0%) and 3rd stage(13.3%) at low temperature but high in the 3rd (26.7%) and 4th stage (33.3%) at high temperatures. Mortality in the plastic house was high in the 1st and 2nd stage but there was no mortality in the 4th stage at low temperature. The total developmental period was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (12.2 days) in the laboratory and shortest at $28.5^{\circ}C$ (4.09 days) in the plastic house. The lower threshold temperature at the total nymphal stage was $6.8^{\circ}C$ in laboratory. The thermal constant required to reach the total nymphal stage was 111.1DD. The relationship between the developmental rate and temperature fit the nonlinear model of Logan-6 which has the lowest value for the Akaike information criterion(AIC) and Bayesian information criterion(BIC). The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by the 3-parameter Weibull function ($r^2=0.89{\sim}0.96$). This model accurately described the predicted and observed outcomes. Thus it is considered that the model can be used for predicting the optimal spray time for Aphis gossypii.

• Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
• /
• v.51 no.2
• /
• pp.89-94
• /
• 2013

The aim of the present study is to investigate food consumption, hatching periods, adult mortality, the mean number of hatchlings and ovipositional trend of Gryllus bimaculatus De Geer. The rearing and experiments were conducted in the rearing room ($28{\pm}2^{\circ}C$, $60{\pm}10%$RH). As the adult rearing density increased from 50 to 400, it did not affect the average daily food consumption of adult crickets which was $0.067{\pm}0.008$ g a day. However, the daily radish consumption decreased from 0.128 to 0.068 g per day. 95.8% of eggs hatched by the sixth day after the beginning of hatching. The average mortality of the adults gradually increased, and reached 93.9% by the 8th week. Total number of hatchlings per female was $172.2{\pm}10.6$ ($mean{\pm}SD$) in 200 females rearing cages, which was noticeably less than $248.8{\pm}17.8$ ($mean{\pm}SD$) in 100 females rearing cages. Sex ratio of the crickets given in the rearing cages did not affect both the number of hatchlings and ovipositon rate. Oviposition rate periodically fluctuated as progressed, and it reached 81.5% of the total oviposition by the $3^{rd}$ week since the beginning of ovipoisiton.